Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows a strong—but not overheating—labor market
Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on today’s release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December. Read the full thread here.
Don’t wait on wage growth—the Fed should cut rates at this week’s meeting
Over the past six months, core inflation has risen exactly in line with the Federal Reserve’s long-run 2% inflation target. When this key measure of inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) is neither above nor below this target, this is a good sign that the Fed’s policy should be roughly neutral—aiming to neither increase nor depress economic activity.
Yet Fed interest rate policy today is nowhere near neutral—instead it is putting a stiff drag on potential growth. The Fed’s main policy instrument—the federal funds rate—stands between 5.25 and 5.5%, its highest level since at least the business cycle peak of 2007 (and maybe even the peak of 2000). There are a lot of debates among economists about the correct “neutral” level of interest rates in the economy (and even debates about whether it exists or is a useful guide to policy at all), but nobody thinks today’s rates are even close to neutral. Instead, interest rates closer to 2.5-3% are likely needed to keep monetary policy from continuing to threaten growth. (Rates lower than this would likely start providing some stimulus to the economy, which does not seem needed at the moment.)
Given that inflation has been brought all the way back down to the Fed’s target, further economic cooling is no longer needed, and the Fed should move quickly to a more neutral stance.
Extending unemployment insurance to striking workers would cost little and encourage fair negotiations
Download this article as a PDF
Click here for the latest methodology estimating the cost of UI for striking workers legislation. Updated February 3, 2025.
Unions and collective action have long served as a vehicle for ensuring prosperity for working families and creating a more equal economy. Despite these critical functions, workers engaged in collective action, like strikes, have historically been barred from accessing safety net programs like unemployment insurance (UI). In a welcome development, state lawmakers are beginning to rethink this convention, recognizing the dual roles of UI in stabilizing the economy and unions in securing broad-based economic growth.
A growing number of states are proposing legislation to extend unemployment insurance to striking workers
In just the past two years, lawmakers in nine states have introduced legislation aimed at granting or enhancing striking workers’ access to UI. As shown in Table 1, New York and New Jersey are currently the only two states where striking workers can apply for UI benefits following a 14-day waiting period. This month, New York legislators proposed a further reduction to seven days.
However, not all legislative efforts have been successful. The Connecticut Senate rejected a bill that would have permitted striking workers to access UI after 14 days, while California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed a similar bill that passed in the state legislature. Presently, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania legislators are considering laws with 30-day waiting periods, Illinois and Ohio are considering bills with 14-day waiting periods, and Washington is considering a bill with a seven-day waiting period.
Decline of labor unions weakens American democracy
Earlier today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the share of workers represented by unions was 11.2% in 2023, down slightly from 11.3% in 2022. This news of stagnation is especially sobering for the American labor movement because the past year was full of major victories and growing momentum. The UAW’s ‘stand up’ strike led to record contracts for autoworkers, graduate students around the country won union elections, and public support for labor unions reached near-record highs—especially among young Americans. The decline of the American labor movement since the 1970s has been a major cause of stagnating wages and rising income inequality, and contributes to U.S. workers facing more dangerous working conditions than their counterparts in other wealthy countries. With the 2024 presidential election approaching, however, it is crucial to look beyond these economic consequences—as important as they are—and to recognize that the decline of American labor unions also leaves American democracy vulnerable.
That is the conclusion of our recent EPI report on labor unions and the use of ballot drop boxes during U.S. elections. Since ballot drop boxes are a highly secure way to increase access to voting during elections, the Republican Party has sought to limit their use as part of a broad assault on voting rights. During the 2022 midterm elections, for example, we found that unified Republican control of a state government was associated with a 95% decrease in ballot drop boxes per capita. Seventeen states completely banned ballot drop boxes—and all but one of them had either a Republican governor or a Republican-controlled legislature. By contrast, Democrats championed the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act (VRAA) of 2021—national legislation that included protections against numerous state-level voting restrictions, including those related to ballot drop boxes. Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, however, joined Republicans to block these reforms in early 2022.
There’s no debate: Measurable income inequality has skyrocketed in recent decades
This is an excerpt from an op-ed that originally ran in CNN. Read the full op-ed here.
In recent years, researchers have debated the simple question of whether inequality has risen a lot or a little in the United States over the past half-century. Lots of arguments in this debate surround highly technical issues like, “Should the income of owners of ‘pass-through businesses’ be reported as wages or business profits?” or “Is income that is not reported on tax returns mostly earned by rich or middle-class households, and how do you know?”
But we’ve identified available data that sidesteps nearly all these complexities and demonstrates that inequality has indeed risen enormously: what individual Americans earn in the labor market.
State and local governments have only spent about half of American Rescue Plan funds as critical deadline nears
2024 is the last opportunity for state and local governments to make spending decisions on funds provided by the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA). Many states, localities, and school districts still have considerable unspent ARPA funds. At a time when the public sector has still not fully recovered from the job losses of the pandemic, governments should use remaining ARPA funds to shore up public services and invest in education.
ARPA allocated $350 billion to state and local governments (State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds, or SLFRF). While governments do not need to spend those funds until 2026, they must be obligated by December 31, 2024. ARPA also provided an additional $122 billion to school districts and state education authorities (Elementary and Secondary Schools Emergency Relief, or ESSER III). That money must be obligated by September 30, 2024, and must be spent by January 28, 2025.
The latest SLFRF spending data, covering the period ending June 30, 2023, show that roughly half of fiscal recovery funds had yet to be spent. The amount is even higher for local governments, with more than 56% of funds unexpended.
Youth subminimum wages and why they should be eliminated: Young workers face pay discrimination in 34 states and DC
In 2023, the issue of child labor re-emerged as a national crisis. Federal data on the rise of child labor violations and numerous investigative reports of widespread illegal youth employment garnered sustained media attention, sparking outrage from the public and lawmakers alike. At the same time, EPI has documented an ongoing, coordinated effort to roll back existing child labor protections that is gaining momentum in states across the country. Legislative proposals to weaken child labor protections—some of which have already been enacted—allow employers to hire teens for more dangerous jobs or extend the hours young people can work on school nights.
What has received far less attention is the long-standing system of pay discrimination against young workers under federal and state laws. These laws allow employers to pay youth less than adults in the same jobs and, in many cases, exclude young workers from the minimum wage protections that cover most adult workers.
In states across the country, advocates and lawmakers are working to eliminate subminimum wages for low-wage tipped or disabled workers. Amid increased child labor violations and a growing movement to roll back protections for working youth, lawmakers should also work to eliminate youth subminimum wages. Age-based pay discrimination is unfair and harms workers of all ages.
December jobs report caps another year of strong job growth
Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 216,000 jobs added in December. Read the full thread here.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: Quits, layoffs, and hires all continued to trend down in November
Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on today’s release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Read the full thread here.
Twenty-two states will increase their minimum wages on January 1, raising pay for nearly 10 million workers
On January 1, 22 states will increase their minimum wages, raising pay for an estimated 9.9 million workers. In total, workers will receive $6.95 billion in additional wages from state minimum wage increases. In addition, 38 cities and counties will increase their minimum wages on January 1 above their state’s wage floors, adding to the number of workers likely to see increased earnings. In the absence of federal action, states and localities continue to take the lead in advancing fairer wage floors via legislation, ballot measures, and automatic inflation adjustments.
The minimum wage continues to be a vital policy for creating a more equitable economy. According to our analysis:
- Women make up more than half (57.9%) of workers getting an increase on January 1.
- The minimum wage increases will also disproportionately benefit Black and Hispanic workers. Black workers make up 9.0% of the wage-earning workforce in the states with increases, but are 11.1% of the affected workers. Similarly, Hispanic workers are 19.6% of the workforce in these states, but 37.9% of the workers receiving wage increases.
- These increases will also bring important benefits to working families. More than a quarter (25.8%) of affected workers are parents, or more than 2.5 million people. In total, 5.6 million children live in households where an individual will receive a minimum wage increase.
- The increases will provide critical support to workers and families in need. Almost one in five (19.7%) workers getting a raise have incomes below the poverty line, and nearly half (47.4%) have incomes below twice the poverty line.
- More than half (51%) of workers getting minimum wage increases are in California, Hawaii, and New York, all high cost-of-living states.