Policy Watch: House Republicans vote to strip health care from millions
Yesterday, on President Trump’s 105th day in office, House Republicans approved a bill repealing the Affordable Care Act. President Trump celebrated the House passage of the American Health Care Act (AHCA) and stated that he is confident that the measure will pass the Senate. Under the AHCA, 24 million Americans would lose their health insurance coverage. The majority (14 million) would lose coverage as the result of staggering cuts (almost $900 billion over the next decade) to the Medicaid program, which provides health care coverage to low-income Americans. An additional 7 million Americans would lose the coverage they get through their employer. In addition to taking coverage away from millions of Americans, the AHCA would have a significant impact on our nation’s overall economy. Large cuts to Medicaid and the subsidies for those buying health insurance on the ACA exchanges, combined with the AHCA’s tax cuts benefitting the top 1 percent of households, would be a drag on the economy and hurt job growth. Nationally, the job losses would reach 460,000 by 2020 and 1.8 million by 2022.
Earlier in the week, House Republicans voted in favor of legislation that would give employers the right to delay paying any wages for overtime work for as long as 13 months. The deceptively named “Working Families Flexibility Act” (H.R. 1180) would allow private-sector employers to “compensate” hourly workers with compensatory time off in lieu of overtime pay. Contrary to proponents’ claims, the bill does not give employees the right to comp time, it takes away their right to overtime. The legislation forces workers to compromise their paychecks for the possibility—but not the guarantee—that they will get time off from work when they need it.
The hidden sides of NAEP: girls, art, and empowerment
Everyone who works in the education world—from researchers and policymakers, to teachers and school board members—is familiar with the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), commonly called the “Nation’s Report Card.” Every two years, scores from the NAEP on reading and mathematics tell us what students across the country and in every state know and can do. NAEP also paints a picture of progress over time in our children’s proficiency in these subjects and the degree to which race- and income-based gaps in educational achievement are narrowing. (For the record, we have continued to make progress on both subjects, and those gaps are narrowing, albeit much more slowly than we want or need them to.)
But even those of us who rely on NAEP, whether for research or policymaking purposes or otherwise, are probably a lot less conversant with other aspects of the assessments. In the past few weeks, the National Assessment Governing Board (NAGB), which oversees and manages NAEP, unveiled two new sets of findings that illuminate key realities relevant to children’s futures and provide important guidance for policy and practice. They could not be more timely.
Last week, the Board hosted an event at the Kennedy Center to discuss the results of the 2016 NAEP arts assessment. Every decade since 1997, eighth graders have been assessed for their skills in music and visual arts, the latter including both what they know about art and how well they can practice it. The good news, if you can call it that, is that our children haven’t lost ground on scores despite major cuts to art programs during the big recession; overall, they have held fairly steady since the last arts NAEP, in 2008.
What to Watch on Jobs Day: Signs of tightening across the economy
As we await Friday’s employment report, and the likely bounce back from the disappointing payroll numbers we saw last month, I’m going to take the opportunity to discuss a couple key questions we should ask as the economy continues inching towards full employment. First, are we simply adding jobs or are we adding better-quality jobs? Second, is the recovery reaching all corners of the labor market?
Except for last month, the economy has been adding enough jobs over the last year to not only keep up with population growth but to pull in more workers off the sidelines. These workers come from those who were unemployed—that is, people who have been actively looking for a job—as well as those who were out of the labor force but who we would expect to return as job opportunities get stronger. As those formerly-sidelined workers get added to the employment rolls, there will be fewer workers left out trying to get in. Right now, employers hold the cards when it comes to determining employment conditions because, for the most part, they don’t have to offer better wages and benefits to attract and retain the workers they want—both employers and workers know those would-be workers are out there ready to replace any incumbent who makes wage demands that employers deem excessive.
As we approach full employment, that dynamic should slowly shift. We’ve begun to see evidence of broad-based wage growth in the last year as some amount of bargaining power moves in workers’ favor as the labor market tightens. With fewer workers on the sidelines, employers will have to work a bit harder—offering higher wages and better benefits—to attract and retain the workers they want. That is not to say that we should expect rapid and uncontrolled acceleration in wage growth, which the Federal Reserve fears will set off an inflationary spiral. Instead, upward pressure on wages will likely happen slowly and gradually, perhaps in one sector before others or in one part of the country before others. But, it will not happen at all if the Fed raises rates and slows down or halts the recovery.
The AHCA-but-worse plan should not be passed by the House today
A vote in favor of the American Health Care Act (AHCA) today would be a vote to make the vast majority of Americans poorer, less healthy, and more financially insecure. The AHCA would cost 24 million Americans their health insurance coverage. The majority (14 million) would lose it to breathtakingly large cuts (almost $900 billion over the next decade) to the vital Medicaid program. Further, 7 million Americans would lose the coverage they get through their employer if AHCA passes.
Costs would skyrocket for those who still needed coverage in the nongroup market. A 64 year-old making 175 percent of the federal poverty line would pay $12,900 more each year for the health insurance plan’s premiums under AHCA, but would also face deductibles and co-pays that would cost thousands more than they do currently. For the entire nongroup market, out-of-pocket costs after premiums would rise by $25 billion each year by 2026 if AHCA is passed.
On top of this severe degradation of health and financial security, the AHCA would also drag on job growth in coming years. This drag would occur because the AHCA cuts to Medicaid and insurance subsidies reduce growth in economic activity and job creation far more powerfully than the AHCA tax cuts boost this growth. By 2022, this drag could lower employment by 1.8 million unless some countervailing macroeconomic boost neutralized the AHCA job losses. This drag on job growth would felt in nearly every congressional district.
How many jobs could the AHCA cost in your congressional district?: Potential fewer jobs by congressional district due to drag on growth from the AHCA, 2017–2022
| State | District | Representative | 2019 potential job loss | 2020 potential job loss | 2021 potential job loss | 2022 potential job loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1 | Bradley Byrne | 468 | 1,229 | 1,696 | 1,820 |
| Alabama | 2 | Martha Roby | 375 | 1,001 | 1,384 | 1,505 |
| Alabama | 3 | Mike Rogers | 404 | 1,071 | 1,478 | 1,613 |
| Alabama | 4 | Robert B. Aderholt | 429 | 1,108 | 1,522 | 1,647 |
| Alabama | 5 | Mo Brooks | 307 | 910 | 1,287 | 1,376 |
| Alabama | 6 | Gary J. Palmer | 174 | 662 | 974 | 1,032 |
| Alabama | 7 | Terri A. Sewell | 528 | 1,338 | 1,827 | 2,006 |
| Alaska | Statewide | Don Young | 433 | 1,416 | 2,018 | 2,324 |
| Arizona | 1 | Tom O’Halleran | 1,875 | 4,911 | 6,719 | 7,746 |
| Arizona | 2 | Martha McSally | 1,377 | 3,696 | 5,085 | 5,838 |
| Arizona | 3 | Raúl M. Grijalva | 2,182 | 5,606 | 7,640 | 8,789 |
| Arizona | 4 | Paul A. Gosar | 1,498 | 3,885 | 5,310 | 6,074 |
| Arizona | 5 | Andy Biggs | 828 | 2,375 | 3,313 | 3,778 |
| Arizona | 6 | David Schweikert | 795 | 2,571 | 3,658 | 4,214 |
| Arizona | 7 | Ruben Gallego | 3,171 | 8,148 | 11,101 | 12,811 |
| Arizona | 8 | Trent Franks | 958 | 2,600 | 3,588 | 4,084 |
| Arizona | 9 | Kyrsten Sinema | 1,592 | 4,314 | 5,946 | 6,841 |
| Arkansas | 1 | Eric A. “Rick” Crawford | 1,085 | 2,815 | 3,849 | 4,390 |
| Arkansas | 2 | J. French Hill | 777 | 2,127 | 2,941 | 3,342 |
| Arkansas | 3 | Steve Womack | 869 | 2,380 | 3,290 | 3,739 |
| Arkansas | 4 | Bruce Westerman | 1,052 | 2,738 | 3,746 | 4,275 |
| California | 1 | Doug LaMalfa | 1,096 | 2,880 | 3,954 | 4,460 |
| California | 2 | Jared Huffman | 502 | 1,838 | 2,670 | 3,013 |
| California | 3 | John Garamendi | 886 | 2,440 | 3,380 | 3,830 |
| California | 4 | Tom McClintock | 553 | 1,722 | 2,444 | 2,718 |
| California | 5 | Mike Thompson | 687 | 2,041 | 2,871 | 3,223 |
| California | 6 | Doris O. Matsui | 1,351 | 3,540 | 4,852 | 5,517 |
| California | 7 | Ami Bera | 725 | 2,093 | 2,928 | 3,293 |
| California | 8 | Paul Cook | 1,262 | 3,254 | 4,447 | 5,036 |
| California | 9 | Jerry McNerney | 1,122 | 2,988 | 4,110 | 4,655 |
| California | 10 | Jeff Denham | 1,072 | 2,824 | 3,878 | 4,382 |
| California | 11 | Mark DeSaulnier | 320 | 1,494 | 2,235 | 2,538 |
| California | 12 | Nancy Pelosi | 76 | 1,283 | 2,065 | 2,370 |
| California | 13 | Barbara Lee | 772 | 2,483 | 3,536 | 4,009 |
| California | 14 | Jackie Speier | 1 | 802 | 1,329 | 1,509 |
| California | 15 | Eric Swalwell | 197 | 1,159 | 1,777 | 1,981 |
| California | 16 | Jim Costa | 1,785 | 4,574 | 6,235 | 7,128 |
| California | 17 | Ro Khanna | 63 | 707 | 1,219 | 1,379 |
| California | 18 | Anna G. Eshoo | 543 | 21 | 437 | 539 |
| California | 19 | Zoe Lofgren | 484 | 1,754 | 2,544 | 2,883 |
| California | 20 | Jimmy Panetta | 942 | 2,623 | 3,643 | 4,107 |
| California | 21 | David G. Valadao | 1,658 | 4,250 | 5,793 | 6,635 |
| California | 22 | Devin Nunes | 1,144 | 3,075 | 4,235 | 4,829 |
| California | 23 | Kevin McCarthy | 1,039 | 2,800 | 3,859 | 4,392 |
| California | 24 | Salud O. Carbajal | 834 | 2,405 | 3,364 | 3,786 |
| California | 25 | Stephen Knight | 781 | 2,270 | 3,180 | 3,561 |
| California | 26 | Julia Brownley | 585 | 1,878 | 2,678 | 2,992 |
| California | 27 | Judy Chu | 585 | 1,914 | 2,737 | 3,064 |
| California | 28 | Adam B. Schiff | 726 | 2,332 | 3,321 | 3,752 |
| California | 29 | Tony Cárdenas | 1,405 | 3,589 | 4,897 | 5,528 |
| California | 30 | Brad Sherman | 518 | 1,857 | 2,690 | 3,025 |
| California | 31 | Pete Aguilar | 1,173 | 3,112 | 4,277 | 4,852 |
| California | 32 | Grace F. Napolitano | 1,018 | 2,643 | 3,622 | 4,048 |
| California | 33 | Ted Lieu | 310 | 486 | 1,034 | 1,191 |
| California | 34 | vacant | 1,702 | 4,385 | 5,990 | 6,803 |
| California | 35 | Norma J. Torres | 1,202 | 3,065 | 4,181 | 4,719 |
| California | 36 | Raul Ruiz | 1,208 | 3,219 | 4,429 | 5,017 |
| California | 37 | Karen Bass | 1,152 | 3,263 | 4,543 | 5,156 |
| California | 38 | Linda T. Sánchez | 892 | 2,354 | 3,239 | 3,607 |
| California | 39 | Edward R. Royce | 549 | 1,768 | 2,524 | 2,809 |
| California | 40 | Lucille Roybal-Allard | 1,766 | 4,465 | 6,075 | 6,892 |
| California | 41 | Mark Takano | 1,290 | 3,338 | 4,566 | 5,170 |
| California | 42 | Ken Calvert | 664 | 1,862 | 2,593 | 2,888 |
| California | 43 | Maxine Waters | 1,270 | 3,340 | 4,585 | 5,176 |
| California | 44 | Nanette Diaz Barragán | 1,532 | 3,886 | 5,293 | 5,985 |
| California | 45 | Mimi Walters | 175 | 1,191 | 1,846 | 2,060 |
| California | 46 | J. Luis Correa | 1,262 | 3,232 | 4,414 | 4,960 |
| California | 47 | Alan S. Lowenthal | 1,026 | 2,827 | 3,919 | 4,410 |
| California | 48 | Dana Rohrabacher | 294 | 1,447 | 2,180 | 2,443 |
| California | 49 | Darrell E. Issa | 386 | 1,590 | 2,349 | 2,631 |
| California | 50 | Duncan Hunter | 920 | 2,509 | 3,472 | 3,883 |
| California | 51 | Juan Vargas | 1,618 | 4,061 | 5,522 | 6,205 |
| California | 52 | Scott H. Peters | 258 | 1,305 | 1,973 | 2,201 |
| California | 53 | Susan A. Davis | 897 | 2,469 | 3,424 | 3,830 |
| Colorado | 1 | Diana DeGette | 2,344 | 6,472 | 8,944 | 10,362 |
| Colorado | 2 | Jared Polis | 1,597 | 4,573 | 6,368 | 7,344 |
| Colorado | 3 | Scott R. Tipton | 2,339 | 6,134 | 8,395 | 9,669 |
| Colorado | 4 | Ken Buck | 1,585 | 4,408 | 6,103 | 7,055 |
| Colorado | 5 | Doug Lamborn | 1,722 | 4,656 | 6,408 | 7,421 |
| Colorado | 6 | Mike Coffman | 1,449 | 4,134 | 5,750 | 6,656 |
| Colorado | 7 | Ed Perlmutter | 1,743 | 4,705 | 6,476 | 7,482 |
| Connecticut | 1 | John B. Larson | 982 | 2,879 | 4,029 | 4,616 |
| Connecticut | 2 | Joe Courtney | 632 | 1,952 | 2,760 | 3,136 |
| Connecticut | 3 | Rosa L. DeLauro | 953 | 2,768 | 3,869 | 4,426 |
| Connecticut | 4 | James A. Himes | 145 | 1,504 | 2,372 | 2,784 |
| Connecticut | 5 | Elizabeth H. Esty | 853 | 2,626 | 3,706 | 4,249 |
| Delaware | Statewide | Lisa Blunt Rochester | 1,202 | 3,381 | 4,698 | 5,362 |
| DC | Statewide | Eleanor Holmes Norton | 303 | 1,542 | 2,321 | 2,691 |
| Florida | 1 | Matt Gaetz | 557 | 1,482 | 2,051 | 2,208 |
| Florida | 2 | Neal P. Dunn | 652 | 1,696 | 2,333 | 2,533 |
| Florida | 3 | Ted S. Yoho | 699 | 1,798 | 2,469 | 2,667 |
| Florida | 4 | John H. Rutherford | 574 | 1,563 | 2,177 | 2,309 |
| Florida | 5 | Al Lawson, Jr. | 907 | 2,234 | 3,034 | 3,319 |
| Florida | 6 | Ron DeSantis | 777 | 2,037 | 2,813 | 2,983 |
| Florida | 7 | Stephanie N. Murphy | 845 | 2,176 | 2,998 | 3,147 |
| Florida | 8 | Bill Posey | 720 | 1,862 | 2,565 | 2,722 |
| Florida | 9 | Darren Soto | 1,096 | 2,650 | 3,597 | 3,817 |
| Florida | 10 | Val Butler Demings | 969 | 2,462 | 3,383 | 3,550 |
| Florida | 11 | Daniel Webster | 807 | 1,983 | 2,699 | 2,879 |
| Florida | 12 | Gus M. Bilirakis | 639 | 1,702 | 2,361 | 2,492 |
| Florida | 13 | Charlie Crist | 689 | 1,812 | 2,506 | 2,653 |
| Florida | 14 | Kathy Castor | 808 | 2,107 | 2,903 | 3,136 |
| Florida | 15 | Dennis A. Ross | 678 | 1,773 | 2,446 | 2,615 |
| Florida | 16 | Vern Buchanan | 612 | 1,677 | 2,339 | 2,477 |
| Florida | 17 | Thomas J. Rooney | 788 | 1,953 | 2,663 | 2,853 |
| Florida | 18 | Brian J. Mast | 807 | 2,168 | 3,013 | 3,155 |
| Florida | 19 | Francis Rooney | 671 | 1,897 | 2,660 | 2,813 |
| Florida | 20 | Alcee L. Hastings | 1,533 | 3,616 | 4,880 | 5,170 |
| Florida | 21 | Lois Frankel | 910 | 2,374 | 3,284 | 3,411 |
| Florida | 22 | Theodore E. Deutch | 1,024 | 2,775 | 3,868 | 4,028 |
| Florida | 23 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 1,120 | 2,927 | 4,050 | 4,207 |
| Florida | 24 | Frederica S. Wilson | 1,717 | 4,082 | 5,522 | 5,828 |
| Florida | 25 | Mario Diaz-Balart | 1,375 | 3,310 | 4,494 | 4,710 |
| Florida | 26 | Carlos Curbelo | 1,482 | 3,544 | 4,808 | 5,013 |
| Florida | 27 | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen | 1,468 | 3,697 | 5,070 | 5,321 |
| Georgia | 1 | Earl L. “Buddy” Carter | 682 | 1,773 | 2,439 | 2,653 |
| Georgia | 2 | Sanford D. Bishop, Jr. | 761 | 1,946 | 2,660 | 2,961 |
| Georgia | 3 | A. Drew Ferguson, IV | 561 | 1,512 | 2,095 | 2,275 |
| Georgia | 4 | Henry C. “Hank” Johnson, Jr. | 918 | 2,285 | 3,117 | 3,348 |
| Georgia | 5 | John Lewis | 751 | 2,122 | 2,966 | 3,241 |
| Georgia | 6 | vacant | 81 | 876 | 1,402 | 1,473 |
| Georgia | 7 | Rob Woodall | 745 | 2,006 | 2,789 | 2,940 |
| Georgia | 8 | Austin Scott | 633 | 1,643 | 2,254 | 2,502 |
| Georgia | 9 | Doug Collins | 679 | 1,755 | 2,409 | 2,624 |
| Georgia | 10 | Jody B. Hice | 669 | 1,736 | 2,385 | 2,606 |
| Georgia | 11 | Barry Loudermilk | 438 | 1,395 | 1,997 | 2,131 |
| Georgia | 12 | Rick W. Allen | 751 | 1,928 | 2,640 | 2,907 |
| Georgia | 13 | David Scott | 843 | 2,112 | 2,886 | 3,106 |
| Georgia | 14 | Tom Graves | 636 | 1,613 | 2,206 | 2,413 |
| Hawaii | 1 | Colleen Hanabusa | 422 | 1,445 | 2,071 | 2,424 |
| Hawaii | 2 | Tulsi Gabbard | 866 | 2,463 | 3,424 | 3,965 |
| Idaho | 1 | Raúl R. Labrador | 1,094 | 2,743 | 3,743 | 4,069 |
| Idaho | 2 | Michael K. Simpson | 1,084 | 2,757 | 3,773 | 4,113 |
| Illinois | 1 | Bobby L. Rush | 1,376 | 3,656 | 5,021 | 5,744 |
| Illinois | 2 | Robin L. Kelly | 1,481 | 3,850 | 5,264 | 6,023 |
| Illinois | 3 | Daniel Lipinski | 821 | 2,289 | 3,177 | 3,606 |
| Illinois | 4 | Luis V. Gutiérrez | 1,593 | 4,132 | 5,646 | 6,464 |
| Illinois | 5 | Mike Quigley | 354 | 1,574 | 2,339 | 2,691 |
| Illinois | 6 | Peter J. Roskam | 9 | 722 | 1,202 | 1,358 |
| Illinois | 7 | Danny K. Davis | 1,480 | 4,271 | 5,955 | 6,875 |
| Illinois | 8 | Raja Krishnamoorthi | 766 | 2,126 | 2,951 | 3,330 |
| Illinois | 9 | Janice D. Schakowsky | 501 | 1,860 | 2,701 | 3,101 |
| Illinois | 10 | Bradley Scott Schneider | 377 | 1,552 | 2,286 | 2,609 |
| Illinois | 11 | Bill Foster | 674 | 1,994 | 2,799 | 3,173 |
| Illinois | 12 | Mike Bost | 1,238 | 3,265 | 4,476 | 5,134 |
| Illinois | 13 | Rodney Davis | 1,146 | 3,092 | 4,258 | 4,891 |
| Illinois | 14 | Randy Hultgren | 327 | 1,255 | 1,837 | 2,066 |
| Illinois | 15 | John Shimkus | 1,053 | 2,770 | 3,798 | 4,328 |
| Illinois | 16 | Adam Kinzinger | 857 | 2,303 | 3,173 | 3,604 |
| Illinois | 17 | Cheri Bustos | 1,259 | 3,267 | 4,466 | 5,105 |
| Illinois | 18 | Darin LaHood | 642 | 1,864 | 2,605 | 2,974 |
| Indiana | 1 | Peter J. Visclosky | 863 | 2,305 | 3,173 | 3,594 |
| Indiana | 2 | Jackie Walorski | 874 | 2,297 | 3,152 | 3,557 |
| Indiana | 3 | Jim Banks | 769 | 2,050 | 2,822 | 3,184 |
| Indiana | 4 | Todd Rokita | 732 | 1,953 | 2,690 | 3,030 |
| Indiana | 5 | Susan W. Brooks | 393 | 1,380 | 1,994 | 2,230 |
| Indiana | 6 | Luke Messer | 827 | 2,165 | 2,968 | 3,354 |
| Indiana | 7 | André Carson | 1,284 | 3,295 | 4,496 | 5,107 |
| Indiana | 8 | Larry Bucshon | 799 | 2,091 | 2,868 | 3,226 |
| Indiana | 9 | Trey Hollingsworth | 806 | 2,145 | 2,952 | 3,328 |
| Iowa | 1 | Rod Blum | 542 | 1,538 | 2,140 | 2,439 |
| Iowa | 2 | David Loebsack | 675 | 1,894 | 2,630 | 3,011 |
| Iowa | 3 | David Young | 507 | 1,546 | 2,181 | 2,489 |
| Iowa | 4 | Steve King | 611 | 1,704 | 2,363 | 2,701 |
| Kansas | 1 | Roger W. Marshall | 351 | 959 | 1,332 | 1,448 |
| Kansas | 2 | Lynn Jenkins | 386 | 1,041 | 1,443 | 1,566 |
| Kansas | 3 | Kevin Yoder | 170 | 767 | 1,153 | 1,218 |
| Kansas | 4 | vacant | 343 | 968 | 1,353 | 1,466 |
| Kentucky | 1 | James Comer | 3,623 | 9,361 | 12,764 | 14,783 |
| Kentucky | 2 | Brett Guthrie | 3,172 | 8,232 | 11,235 | 13,005 |
| Kentucky | 3 | John A. Yarmuth | 3,086 | 8,156 | 11,172 | 12,952 |
| Kentucky | 4 | Thomas Massie | 2,495 | 6,627 | 9,088 | 10,524 |
| Kentucky | 5 | Harold Rogers | 4,920 | 12,672 | 17,264 | 20,016 |
| Kentucky | 6 | Andy Barr | 3,459 | 9,065 | 12,395 | 14,367 |
| Louisiana | 1 | Steve Scalise | 1,376 | 3,743 | 5,173 | 5,842 |
| Louisiana | 2 | Cedric L. Richmond | 2,632 | 6,759 | 9,221 | 10,510 |
| Louisiana | 3 | Clay Higgins | 1,693 | 4,490 | 6,165 | 7,041 |
| Louisiana | 4 | Mike Johnson | 1,931 | 5,035 | 6,888 | 7,885 |
| Louisiana | 5 | Ralph Lee Abraham | 2,264 | 5,834 | 7,961 | 9,108 |
| Louisiana | 6 | Garret Graves | 1,422 | 3,825 | 5,270 | 5,993 |
| Maine | 1 | Chellie Pingree | 424 | 1,177 | 1,649 | 1,704 |
| Maine | 2 | Bruce Poliquin | 553 | 1,355 | 1,848 | 1,933 |
| Maryland | 1 | Andy Harris | 1,172 | 3,334 | 4,638 | 5,339 |
| Maryland | 2 | C. A. Dutch Ruppersberger | 1,552 | 4,199 | 5,784 | 6,659 |
| Maryland | 3 | John P. Sarbanes | 794 | 2,646 | 3,780 | 4,373 |
| Maryland | 4 | Anthony G. Brown | 1,042 | 3,059 | 4,280 | 4,929 |
| Maryland | 5 | Steny H. Hoyer | 650 | 2,184 | 3,123 | 3,614 |
| Maryland | 6 | John K. Delaney | 942 | 2,987 | 4,235 | 4,879 |
| Maryland | 7 | Elijah E. Cummings | 1,974 | 5,499 | 7,613 | 8,817 |
| Maryland | 8 | Jamie Raskin | 315 | 1,741 | 2,642 | 3,059 |
| Massachusetts | 1 | Richard E. Neal | 1,258 | 3,365 | 4,632 | 5,257 |
| Massachusetts | 2 | James P. McGovern | 920 | 2,630 | 3,669 | 4,154 |
| Massachusetts | 3 | Niki Tsongas | 793 | 2,466 | 3,490 | 3,964 |
| Massachusetts | 4 | Joseph P. Kennedy, III | 107 | 1,098 | 1,739 | 1,976 |
| Massachusetts | 5 | Katherine M. Clark | 236 | 1,391 | 2,126 | 2,423 |
| Massachusetts | 6 | Seth Moulton | 391 | 1,563 | 2,298 | 2,594 |
| Massachusetts | 7 | Michael E. Capuano | 1,528 | 4,261 | 5,906 | 6,772 |
| Massachusetts | 8 | Stephen F. Lynch | 476 | 1,774 | 2,582 | 2,925 |
| Massachusetts | 9 | William R. Keating | 841 | 2,431 | 3,398 | 3,837 |
| Michigan | 1 | Jack Bergman | 1,226 | 3,128 | 4,272 | 4,773 |
| Michigan | 2 | Bill Huizenga | 1,099 | 2,852 | 3,904 | 4,411 |
| Michigan | 3 | Justin Amash | 1,026 | 2,752 | 3,791 | 4,300 |
| Michigan | 4 | John R. Moolenaar | 1,184 | 3,093 | 4,236 | 4,814 |
| Michigan | 5 | Daniel T. Kildee | 1,340 | 3,470 | 4,742 | 5,414 |
| Michigan | 6 | Fred Upton | 1,203 | 3,146 | 4,311 | 4,883 |
| Michigan | 7 | Tim Walberg | 895 | 2,383 | 3,280 | 3,704 |
| Michigan | 8 | Mike Bishop | 769 | 2,234 | 3,128 | 3,524 |
| Michigan | 9 | Sander M. Levin | 1,053 | 2,825 | 3,896 | 4,374 |
| Michigan | 10 | Paul Mitchell | 910 | 2,396 | 3,296 | 3,675 |
| Michigan | 11 | David A. Trott | 321 | 1,269 | 1,866 | 2,075 |
| Michigan | 12 | Debbie Dingell | 1,082 | 2,925 | 4,034 | 4,593 |
| Michigan | 13 | John Conyers, Jr. | 2,037 | 5,211 | 7,098 | 8,154 |
| Michigan | 14 | Brenda L. Lawrence | 1,568 | 4,192 | 5,765 | 6,594 |
| Minnesota | 1 | Timothy J. Walz | 715 | 2,022 | 2,808 | 3,253 |
| Minnesota | 2 | Jason Lewis | 291 | 1,112 | 1,618 | 1,893 |
| Minnesota | 3 | Erik Paulsen | 10 | 642 | 1,062 | 1,283 |
| Minnesota | 4 | Betty McCollum | 752 | 2,294 | 3,227 | 3,764 |
| Minnesota | 5 | Keith Ellison | 1,064 | 3,064 | 4,266 | 4,970 |
| Minnesota | 6 | Tom Emmer | 457 | 1,384 | 1,945 | 2,254 |
| Minnesota | 7 | Collin C. Peterson | 799 | 2,180 | 3,007 | 3,476 |
| Minnesota | 8 | Richard M. Nolan | 910 | 2,448 | 3,367 | 3,892 |
| Mississippi | 1 | Trent Kelly | 503 | 1,339 | 1,846 | 2,052 |
| Mississippi | 2 | Bennie G. Thompson | 820 | 2,075 | 2,830 | 3,146 |
| Mississippi | 3 | Gregg Harper | 517 | 1,434 | 1,992 | 2,213 |
| Mississippi | 4 | Steven M. Palazzo | 520 | 1,387 | 1,912 | 2,132 |
| Missouri | 1 | Wm. Lacy Clay | 790 | 2,035 | 2,792 | 3,035 |
| Missouri | 2 | Ann Wagner | 75 | 681 | 1,083 | 1,119 |
| Missouri | 3 | Blaine Luetkemeyer | 472 | 1,262 | 1,749 | 1,879 |
| Missouri | 4 | Vicky Hartzler | 631 | 1,618 | 2,218 | 2,414 |
| Missouri | 5 | Emanuel Cleaver | 665 | 1,721 | 2,365 | 2,569 |
| Missouri | 6 | Sam Graves | 472 | 1,282 | 1,782 | 1,918 |
| Missouri | 7 | Billy Long | 735 | 1,856 | 2,539 | 2,744 |
| Missouri | 8 | Jason Smith | 669 | 1,689 | 2,306 | 2,530 |
| Montana | Statewide | vacant | 4,195 | 10,844 | 14,807 | 16,956 |
| Nebraska | 1 | Jeff Fortenberry | 188 | 554 | 787 | 798 |
| Nebraska | 2 | Don Bacon | 84 | 393 | 595 | 598 |
| Nebraska | 3 | Adrian Smith | 336 | 856 | 1,181 | 1,200 |
| Nevada | 1 | Dina Titus | 2,079 | 5,348 | 7,293 | 8,370 |
| Nevada | 2 | Mark E. Amodei | 1,440 | 3,826 | 5,256 | 5,994 |
| Nevada | 3 | Jacky Rosen | 888 | 2,541 | 3,543 | 4,037 |
| Nevada | 4 | Ruben Kihuen | 1,598 | 4,172 | 5,708 | 6,537 |
| New Hampshire | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | 968 | 2,733 | 3,805 | 4,295 |
| New Hampshire | 2 | Ann M. Kuster | 952 | 2,683 | 3,733 | 4,227 |
| New Jersey | 1 | Donald Norcross | 2,149 | 5,769 | 7,932 | 9,145 |
| New Jersey | 2 | Frank A. LoBiondo | 2,418 | 6,419 | 8,807 | 10,153 |
| New Jersey | 3 | Thomas MacArthur | 1,004 | 2,958 | 4,142 | 4,753 |
| New Jersey | 4 | Christopher H. Smith | 1,532 | 4,511 | 6,312 | 7,292 |
| New Jersey | 5 | Josh Gottheimer | 705 | 2,590 | 3,757 | 4,322 |
| New Jersey | 6 | Frank Pallone, Jr. | 1,705 | 4,827 | 6,706 | 7,731 |
| New Jersey | 7 | Leonard Lance | 189 | 1,583 | 2,471 | 2,887 |
| New Jersey | 8 | Albio Sires | 3,348 | 8,947 | 12,287 | 14,218 |
| New Jersey | 9 | Bill Pascrell, Jr. | 2,776 | 7,473 | 10,280 | 11,864 |
| New Jersey | 10 | Donald M. Payne, Jr. | 3,553 | 9,339 | 12,781 | 14,782 |
| New Jersey | 11 | Rodney P. Frelinghuysen | 153 | 1,411 | 2,215 | 2,584 |
| New Jersey | 12 | Bonnie Watson Coleman | 1,343 | 4,101 | 5,773 | 6,682 |
| New Mexico | 1 | Michelle Lujan Grisham | 3,748 | 9,795 | 13,389 | 15,497 |
| New Mexico | 2 | Stevan Pearce | 4,438 | 11,467 | 15,636 | 18,106 |
| New Mexico | 3 | Ben Ray Luján | 3,867 | 10,066 | 13,748 | 15,911 |
| New York | 1 | Lee M. Zeldin | 132 | 271 | 538 | 695 |
| New York | 2 | Peter T. King | 102 | 237 | 462 | 594 |
| New York | 3 | Thomas R. Suozzi | 656 | 531 | 402 | 331 |
| New York | 4 | Kathleen M. Rice | 240 | 150 | 418 | 576 |
| New York | 5 | Gregory W. Meeks | 588 | 1,737 | 2,427 | 2,843 |
| New York | 6 | Grace Meng | 459 | 1,483 | 2,104 | 2,476 |
| New York | 7 | Nydia M. Velázquez | 1,091 | 3,203 | 4,472 | 5,245 |
| New York | 8 | Hakeem S. Jeffries | 1,076 | 3,019 | 4,181 | 4,888 |
| New York | 9 | Yvette D. Clarke | 789 | 2,349 | 3,287 | 3,857 |
| New York | 10 | Jerrold Nadler | 249 | 716 | 1,352 | 1,735 |
| New York | 11 | Daniel M. Donovan, Jr. | 410 | 1,444 | 2,074 | 2,456 |
| New York | 12 | Carolyn B. Maloney | 896 | 501 | 182 | 5 |
| New York | 13 | Adriano Espaillat | 1,393 | 3,769 | 5,183 | 6,048 |
| New York | 14 | Joseph Crowley | 817 | 2,268 | 3,135 | 3,661 |
| New York | 15 | José E. Serrano | 2,002 | 5,192 | 7,080 | 8,238 |
| New York | 16 | Eliot L. Engel | 114 | 985 | 1,533 | 1,864 |
| New York | 17 | Nita M. Lowey | 190 | 409 | 807 | 1,045 |
| New York | 18 | Sean Patrick Maloney | 51 | 691 | 1,096 | 1,340 |
| New York | 19 | John J. Faso | 374 | 1,224 | 1,739 | 2,051 |
| New York | 20 | Paul Tonko | 386 | 1,302 | 1,858 | 2,196 |
| New York | 21 | Elise M. Stefanik | 585 | 1,651 | 2,289 | 2,678 |
| New York | 22 | Claudia Tenney | 656 | 1,833 | 2,536 | 2,966 |
| New York | 23 | Tom Reed | 687 | 1,922 | 2,661 | 3,112 |
| New York | 24 | John Katko | 561 | 1,662 | 2,324 | 2,727 |
| New York | 25 | Louise McIntosh Slaughter | 590 | 1,763 | 2,468 | 2,898 |
| New York | 26 | Brian Higgins | 800 | 2,219 | 3,067 | 3,585 |
| New York | 27 | Chris Collins | 250 | 896 | 1,290 | 1,528 |
| North Carolina | 1 | G. K. Butterfield | 1,315 | 3,320 | 4,522 | 5,075 |
| North Carolina | 2 | George Holding | 878 | 2,347 | 3,240 | 3,580 |
| North Carolina | 3 | Walter B. Jones | 985 | 2,531 | 3,464 | 3,852 |
| North Carolina | 4 | David E. Price | 948 | 2,611 | 3,626 | 4,016 |
| North Carolina | 5 | Virginia Foxx | 1,021 | 2,677 | 3,680 | 4,085 |
| North Carolina | 6 | Mark Walker | 847 | 2,271 | 3,138 | 3,465 |
| North Carolina | 7 | David Rouzer | 1,090 | 2,804 | 3,839 | 4,256 |
| North Carolina | 8 | Richard Hudson | 1,132 | 2,864 | 3,904 | 4,356 |
| North Carolina | 9 | Robert Pittenger | 280 | 1,248 | 1,867 | 2,019 |
| North Carolina | 10 | Patrick T. McHenry | 1,042 | 2,674 | 3,660 | 4,048 |
| North Carolina | 11 | Mark Meadows | 1,148 | 2,889 | 3,939 | 4,349 |
| North Carolina | 12 | Alma S. Adams | 1,580 | 3,951 | 5,376 | 5,966 |
| North Carolina | 13 | Ted Budd | 612 | 1,829 | 2,583 | 2,814 |
| North Dakota | Statewide | Kevin Cramer | 934 | 2,624 | 3,646 | 4,151 |
| Ohio | 1 | Steve Chabot | 1,216 | 3,394 | 4,704 | 5,414 |
| Ohio | 2 | Brad R. Wenstrup | 1,057 | 2,963 | 4,111 | 4,725 |
| Ohio | 3 | Joyce Beatty | 1,867 | 4,879 | 6,673 | 7,688 |
| Ohio | 4 | Jim Jordan | 1,129 | 2,972 | 4,072 | 4,680 |
| Ohio | 5 | Robert E. Latta | 957 | 2,602 | 3,589 | 4,122 |
| Ohio | 6 | Bill Johnson | 1,309 | 3,419 | 4,677 | 5,372 |
| Ohio | 7 | Bob Gibbs | 1,105 | 2,933 | 4,026 | 4,614 |
| Ohio | 8 | Warren Davidson | 1,103 | 2,958 | 4,068 | 4,669 |
| Ohio | 9 | Marcy Kaptur | 1,655 | 4,327 | 5,919 | 6,818 |
| Ohio | 10 | Michael R. Turner | 1,298 | 3,489 | 4,800 | 5,525 |
| Ohio | 11 | Marcia L. Fudge | 1,957 | 5,194 | 7,124 | 8,226 |
| Ohio | 12 | Patrick J. Tiberi | 655 | 2,063 | 2,922 | 3,364 |
| Ohio | 13 | Tim Ryan | 1,511 | 3,926 | 5,366 | 6,160 |
| Ohio | 14 | David P. Joyce | 604 | 1,848 | 2,607 | 2,972 |
| Ohio | 15 | Steve Stivers | 994 | 2,746 | 3,798 | 4,366 |
| Ohio | 16 | James B. Renacci | 565 | 1,673 | 2,347 | 2,673 |
| Oklahoma | 1 | Jim Bridenstine | 245 | 798 | 1,147 | 1,213 |
| Oklahoma | 2 | Markwayne Mullin | 369 | 957 | 1,318 | 1,420 |
| Oklahoma | 3 | Frank D. Lucas | 292 | 823 | 1,154 | 1,226 |
| Oklahoma | 4 | Tom Cole | 291 | 826 | 1,159 | 1,230 |
| Oklahoma | 5 | Steve Russell | 313 | 961 | 1,367 | 1,455 |
| Oregon | 1 | Suzanne Bonamici | 2,371 | 6,413 | 8,833 | 10,176 |
| Oregon | 2 | Greg Walden | 3,546 | 9,149 | 12,482 | 14,352 |
| Oregon | 3 | Earl Blumenauer | 3,493 | 9,167 | 12,551 | 14,441 |
| Oregon | 4 | Peter A. DeFazio | 3,882 | 10,040 | 13,698 | 15,812 |
| Oregon | 5 | Kurt Schrader | 2,881 | 7,582 | 10,383 | 11,968 |
| Pennsylvania | 1 | Robert A. Brady | 1,262 | 3,318 | 4,553 | 5,160 |
| Pennsylvania | 2 | Dwight Evans | 1,239 | 3,416 | 4,729 | 5,388 |
| Pennsylvania | 3 | Mike Kelly | 661 | 1,812 | 2,508 | 2,837 |
| Pennsylvania | 4 | Scott Perry | 585 | 1,614 | 2,240 | 2,497 |
| Pennsylvania | 5 | Glenn Thompson | 732 | 1,948 | 2,679 | 3,035 |
| Pennsylvania | 6 | Ryan A. Costello | 163 | 912 | 1,393 | 1,532 |
| Pennsylvania | 7 | Patrick Meehan | 94 | 784 | 1,234 | 1,343 |
| Pennsylvania | 8 | Brian K. Fitzpatrick | 227 | 1,013 | 1,518 | 1,629 |
| Pennsylvania | 9 | Bill Shuster | 778 | 2,026 | 2,776 | 3,130 |
| Pennsylvania | 10 | Tom Marino | 704 | 1,868 | 2,572 | 2,874 |
| Pennsylvania | 11 | Lou Barletta | 645 | 1,749 | 2,418 | 2,712 |
| Pennsylvania | 12 | Keith J. Rothfus | 417 | 1,304 | 1,851 | 2,067 |
| Pennsylvania | 13 | Brendan F. Boyle | 690 | 1,975 | 2,761 | 3,078 |
| Pennsylvania | 14 | Michael F. Doyle | 901 | 2,417 | 3,330 | 3,768 |
| Pennsylvania | 15 | Charles W. Dent | 574 | 1,652 | 2,310 | 2,581 |
| Pennsylvania | 16 | Lloyd Smucker | 743 | 2,009 | 2,776 | 3,114 |
| Pennsylvania | 17 | Matt Cartwright | 748 | 1,969 | 2,706 | 3,027 |
| Pennsylvania | 18 | Tim Murphy | 340 | 1,136 | 1,632 | 1,813 |
| Rhode Island | 1 | David N. Cicilline | 1,736 | 4,626 | 6,354 | 7,303 |
| Rhode Island | 2 | James R. Langevin | 1,378 | 3,700 | 5,092 | 5,833 |
| South Carolina | 1 | Mark Sanford | 218 | 754 | 1,099 | 1,118 |
| South Carolina | 2 | Joe Wilson | 228 | 682 | 970 | 998 |
| South Carolina | 3 | Jeff Duncan | 332 | 845 | 1,163 | 1,208 |
| South Carolina | 4 | Trey Gowdy | 328 | 902 | 1,262 | 1,300 |
| South Carolina | 5 | vacant | 325 | 850 | 1,177 | 1,220 |
| South Carolina | 6 | James E. Clyburn | 426 | 1,036 | 1,410 | 1,472 |
| South Carolina | 7 | Tom Rice | 486 | 1,197 | 1,637 | 1,695 |
| South Dakota | Statewide | Kristi L. Noem | 239 | 748 | 1,069 | 1,128 |
| Tennessee | 1 | David P. Roe | 1,049 | 2,712 | 3,711 | 4,181 |
| Tennessee | 2 | John J. Duncan, Jr. | 819 | 2,223 | 3,074 | 3,452 |
| Tennessee | 3 | Charles J. “Chuck” Fleischmann | 928 | 2,443 | 3,354 | 3,779 |
| Tennessee | 4 | Scott DesJarlais | 901 | 2,365 | 3,245 | 3,659 |
| Tennessee | 5 | Jim Cooper | 982 | 2,666 | 3,686 | 4,130 |
| Tennessee | 6 | Diane Black | 861 | 2,273 | 3,124 | 3,508 |
| Tennessee | 7 | Marsha Blackburn | 708 | 2,038 | 2,849 | 3,210 |
| Tennessee | 8 | David Kustoff | 629 | 1,836 | 2,573 | 2,895 |
| Tennessee | 9 | Steve Cohen | 1,361 | 3,501 | 4,781 | 5,426 |
| Texas | 1 | Louie Gohmert | 395 | 1,072 | 1,490 | 1,603 |
| Texas | 2 | Ted Poe | 98 | 735 | 1,155 | 1,200 |
| Texas | 3 | Sam Johnson | 25 | 621 | 1,023 | 1,038 |
| Texas | 4 | John Ratcliffe | 356 | 998 | 1,396 | 1,497 |
| Texas | 5 | Jeb Hensarling | 468 | 1,236 | 1,708 | 1,826 |
| Texas | 6 | Joe Barton | 397 | 1,120 | 1,571 | 1,656 |
| Texas | 7 | John Abney Culberson | 100 | 474 | 869 | 899 |
| Texas | 8 | Kevin Brady | 164 | 754 | 1,134 | 1,201 |
| Texas | 9 | Al Green | 681 | 1,710 | 2,339 | 2,499 |
| Texas | 10 | Michael T. McCaul | 239 | 946 | 1,401 | 1,466 |
| Texas | 11 | K. Michael Conaway | 249 | 820 | 1,178 | 1,263 |
| Texas | 12 | Kay Granger | 331 | 1,027 | 1,466 | 1,539 |
| Texas | 13 | Mac Thornberry | 302 | 843 | 1,177 | 1,271 |
| Texas | 14 | Randy K. Weber, Sr. | 291 | 919 | 1,314 | 1,404 |
| Texas | 15 | Vicente Gonzalez | 640 | 1,622 | 2,218 | 2,420 |
| Texas | 16 | Beto O’Rourke | 800 | 1,956 | 2,663 | 2,818 |
| Texas | 17 | Bill Flores | 397 | 1,104 | 1,541 | 1,668 |
| Texas | 18 | Sheila Jackson Lee | 586 | 1,557 | 2,154 | 2,312 |
| Texas | 19 | Jodey C. Arrington | 321 | 910 | 1,274 | 1,383 |
| Texas | 20 | Joaquin Castro | 578 | 1,448 | 1,979 | 2,113 |
| Texas | 21 | Lamar Smith | 225 | 919 | 1,367 | 1,431 |
| Texas | 22 | Pete Olson | 76 | 738 | 1,180 | 1,198 |
| Texas | 23 | Will Hurd | 480 | 1,334 | 1,863 | 1,991 |
| Texas | 24 | Kenny Marchant | 85 | 684 | 1,080 | 1,120 |
| Texas | 25 | Roger Williams | 188 | 812 | 1,216 | 1,277 |
| Texas | 26 | Michael C. Burgess | 165 | 771 | 1,166 | 1,199 |
| Texas | 27 | Blake Farenthold | 378 | 1,037 | 1,444 | 1,553 |
| Texas | 28 | Henry Cuellar | 668 | 1,667 | 2,275 | 2,450 |
| Texas | 29 | Gene Green | 756 | 1,828 | 2,477 | 2,668 |
| Texas | 30 | Eddie Bernice Johnson | 632 | 1,591 | 2,176 | 2,335 |
| Texas | 31 | John R. Carter | 288 | 886 | 1,263 | 1,325 |
| Texas | 32 | Pete Sessions | 117 | 765 | 1,189 | 1,246 |
| Texas | 33 | Marc A. Veasey | 758 | 1,832 | 2,480 | 2,681 |
| Texas | 34 | Filemon Vela | 660 | 1,662 | 2,270 | 2,476 |
| Texas | 35 | Lloyd Doggett | 716 | 1,748 | 2,375 | 2,551 |
| Texas | 36 | Brian Babin | 372 | 1,051 | 1,474 | 1,565 |
| Utah | 1 | Rob Bishop | 503 | 1,315 | 1,818 | 1,903 |
| Utah | 2 | Chris Stewart | 621 | 1,607 | 2,217 | 2,331 |
| Utah | 3 | Jason Chaffetz | 579 | 1,544 | 2,143 | 2,238 |
| Utah | 4 | Mia B. Love | 610 | 1,540 | 2,114 | 2,208 |
| Vermont | Statewide | Peter Welch | 1,137 | 3,011 | 4,140 | 4,664 |
| Virginia | 1 | Robert J. Wittman | 156 | 742 | 1,125 | 1,145 |
| Virginia | 2 | Scott Taylor | 295 | 885 | 1,257 | 1,304 |
| Virginia | 3 | Robert C. “Bobby” Scott | 448 | 1,150 | 1,580 | 1,693 |
| Virginia | 4 | A. Donald McEachin | 406 | 1,103 | 1,539 | 1,593 |
| Virginia | 5 | Thomas A. Garrett, Jr. | 440 | 1,208 | 1,687 | 1,762 |
| Virginia | 6 | Bob Goodlatte | 440 | 1,150 | 1,590 | 1,669 |
| Virginia | 7 | Dave Brat | 201 | 844 | 1,263 | 1,283 |
| Virginia | 8 | Donald S. Beyer, Jr. | 310 | 184 | 547 | 520 |
| Virginia | 9 | H. Morgan Griffith | 434 | 1,124 | 1,549 | 1,644 |
| Virginia | 10 | Barbara Comstock | 428 | 6 | 319 | 267 |
| Virginia | 11 | Gerald E. Connolly | 117 | 486 | 908 | 887 |
| Washington | 1 | Suzan K. DelBene | 819 | 2,627 | 3,732 | 4,294 |
| Washington | 2 | Rick Larsen | 1,713 | 4,539 | 6,228 | 7,154 |
| Washington | 3 | Jaime Herrera Beutler | 1,797 | 4,732 | 6,484 | 7,453 |
| Washington | 4 | Dan Newhouse | 2,406 | 6,289 | 8,598 | 9,945 |
| Washington | 5 | Cathy McMorris Rodgers | 2,105 | 5,508 | 7,534 | 8,686 |
| Washington | 6 | Derek Kilmer | 1,620 | 4,338 | 5,962 | 6,867 |
| Washington | 7 | Pramila Jayapal | 1,151 | 3,622 | 5,127 | 5,933 |
| Washington | 8 | David G. Reichert | 1,217 | 3,485 | 4,855 | 5,584 |
| Washington | 9 | Adam Smith | 1,718 | 4,846 | 6,728 | 7,765 |
| Washington | 10 | Denny Heck | 1,630 | 4,315 | 5,916 | 6,821 |
| West Virginia | 1 | David B. McKinley | 1,801 | 4,706 | 6,435 | 7,436 |
| West Virginia | 2 | Alexander X. Mooney | 1,623 | 4,284 | 5,869 | 6,778 |
| West Virginia | 3 | Evan H. Jenkins | 2,121 | 5,509 | 7,520 | 8,701 |
| Wisconsin | 1 | Paul D. Ryan | 270 | 803 | 1,138 | 1,187 |
| Wisconsin | 2 | Mark Pocan | 185 | 668 | 976 | 1,026 |
| Wisconsin | 3 | Ron Kind | 395 | 1,024 | 1,413 | 1,482 |
| Wisconsin | 4 | Gwen Moore | 466 | 1,214 | 1,673 | 1,797 |
| Wisconsin | 5 | F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr. | 147 | 604 | 901 | 925 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | Glenn Grothman | 286 | 817 | 1,152 | 1,195 |
| Wisconsin | 7 | Sean P. Duffy | 492 | 1,244 | 1,710 | 1,776 |
| Wisconsin | 8 | Mike Gallagher | 378 | 1,006 | 1,398 | 1,450 |
| Wyoming | Statewide | Liz Cheney | 199 | 582 | 824 | 853 |
The nongroup market spending is the net outcome of repealing ACA subsidies and introducing new AHCA tax credits. We take estimates of current health exchange enrollees by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and apply estimates from Cutler (2017) on the change in enrollment spurred by the AHCA to get a measure of remaining enrollment in nongroup markets by congressional district (CD). We use this measure to allocate the nationwide amount of tax credits estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). We also provide an age adjustment that estimates higher tax credits going to CDs whose age 18–64 population skews older, reflecting the fact that under the AHCA tax credits are larger for older enrollees. Specifically, we multiply the share of the 18–64 population that is between 30 and 49 by 1.375 and the share that is 50 and over by 1.875, reflecting the greater generosity of tax credits for these populations relative to those received by the under-30 population.
For Medicaid spending we allocate the CBO estimates of Medicaid spending reductions across states by using the Blumberg et al. (2016) estimates of how partial ACA repeal would be borne. Within states, we allocate the incidence of these spending cuts across CDs proportionally to each CD’s share of the population with incomes beneath the federal poverty line.
For tax cuts, we assume 40 percent of the revenue accrues uniformly across CDs, while allocating 60 percent of it proportionally to each CD’s total share of the population with incomes over $150,000.
Output multipliers are 1.4 for the nongroup spending reductions, 2 for Medicaid spending reductions, and 0.4 for the tax cuts. These parameter choices are explained in Bivens (2017). In 2019, we divide the output change by $146,000 to get employment changes, also explained in Bivens (2017). For each year after 2019, we increase this divisor by 1.5 percent, reflecting expected productivity growth over that time.
Source: Author's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2016a), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS 2016e), and BLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and computations, see the appendix.
What’s your excuse for opposing state retirement initiatives, senator?
A Senate vote on House Joint Resolution 66 may come as early as tomorrow. H.R. 66 would put roadblocks in front of states setting up convenient low-cost individual retirement accounts (IRAs) for workers who aren’t covered under an employer-based plan such as a 401(k) or a traditional pension. These plans, sometimes called “Secure Choice” plans, are well advanced in many states, including California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland and Oregon. They’re designed to make it easy for workers whose employers don’t offer retirement plans—shockingly, around half of all workers—to contribute to low-cost IRAs through automatic payroll deductions. Workers who stand to benefit are disproportionately low-wage workers and small business employees.
Support for meddling with these useful, if limited, programs tends to split along party lines, though at least one Republican, Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, has publicly opposed H.R. 66 and a similar bill and others appear on the fence.
Passage of the bill in a GOP-controlled Congress would belie the party’s claim to respect states’ rights. Republicans have historically supported retirement savings accounts, and the state plans only offer a low-cost, hassle-free way for uncovered workers to do something they can do already—contribute to an IRA. So why are some members of Congress trying to derail the state initiatives? They claim to be concerned about workers, but it should come as no surprise that the mutual fund industry is behind H.R. 66, presumably because state plans offering low-cost investment options could serve as a nudge to employers to rethink the high-cost funds they offer in their 401(k)s.
The People’s Budget, not Trump’s budget, will help working Americans
After President Trump’s first 100 days in office, it’s clear that his promises to help the working class were little more than a campaign ploy. His dismantling of Obama-era regulations like the Fair Pay and Safe Workplaces rule and deregulation of the financial industry reveal what he really cares about—lining the pockets of America’s ultra-rich.
Nothing demonstrates his disdain for working people more than his budget proposal. In it, he cuts 31 percent of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s budget, which ensures people across the country have clean air and water, and 21 percent from Department of Labor programs that provide job training to seniors and disadvantaged youth. Instead of helping working people, Trump’s budget imposes a hiring freeze on crucial federal agencies and calls for many more staff to be laid off from public sector jobs—the largest reduction in the federal workforce since World War II.
The FY 2018 People’s Budget: A Roadmap for the Resistance by the Congressional Progressive Caucus stands in stark contrast to Trump’s budget. The People’s Budget is a plan to actually help working Americans who have felt left behind by an economy rigged against them. Our budget, is a roadmap for the resistance, investing in the progressive priorities and kitchen table issues that matter to real people: infrastructure to create jobs and ensure public safety; education to help our kids reach their full potential; and sustainable energy to protect our precious environment.Progressives in Congress fully want to make investments in our future generations and protect programs that improve the lives of people every day. We believe our budget should strengthen Social Security and Medicare and invest in job growth through infrastructure, education, and research and development, while responsibly reducing our deficits and cutting wasteful spending and redundant programs where they exist.
Does Trump really believe U.S. companies should “Hire American?” Not if he allows Congress to expand the H-2B guestworker program.
On Monday morning, members of Congress in the House and Senate made public the text of omnibus appropriations legislation to fund the U.S. government through September 2017. The legislation includes a “rider” provision that will double the size of the H-2B nonimmigrant visa program, a temporary foreign worker (or “guestworker”) program that brings up to 66,000 migrant workers per year to the United States for up to nine months at a time to perform low-wage seasonal jobs in industries like landscaping, forestry, housekeeping, seafood processing, and construction. The fact that the legislation was unveiled on May Day makes it sadly ironic, because if President Trump signs it without pressuring congressional leaders to remove this H-2B rider, it will become the latest example of Trump’s aggressive anti-worker agenda. There is still a chance that the final version of the bill might not include it, but it’s a longshot unless Trump demands that Republican leaders in Congress take it out.
H-2B visas are sponsored—in other words owned and controlled—by the employers who hire H-2B workers. In practice that means H-2B guestworkers cannot switch employers if they are cheated or abused. For H-2B workers, losing their visa makes them instantly deportable, which is why they often work for low wages in poor conditions without complaining. In addition, EPI research has shown how H-2B wage rules have often allowed H-2B workers to be paid less than local average wage rates for similarly situated U.S. workers, and how H-2B workers earn no more than undocumented workers on average. Moreover, there are numerous cases of litigation, reports in the media, and government audits documenting how migrants employed through the H-2B program are often exploited and robbed by employers, and even are victims of human trafficking. Because U.S. workers are forced to compete with vulnerable H-2B workers, in turn, this degrades wages and working conditions for all workers in major H-2B occupations. Thus, there’s no question that the H-2B program needs major reforms to protect migrant and American workers—but any push to expand H-2B should be made through the regular legislative process and after a full debate in Congress, so that members are accountable for their votes—not as a fly-by-night provision on a must-pass spending bill.
Does Trump’s tax plan help families pay for child and dependent care expenses?
Included in President Trump’s announcement of his tax plan earlier this week is a promise to provide “tax relief for families with child and dependent care expenses”. Without more details about his plan, however, it’s near-impossible to judge, but we make an attempt nonetheless.
Various news outlets and advocates have speculated that Trump’s initial interest in reforming Dependent Care Flexible Spending Accounts (DCFSA) has since shifted to address a more widely utilized tax credit, referred to as the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (see here, here, and here).
There are three central questions to ask when facing reforms billed as improving access to effective, high-quality child care and education: (1) Does the policy allow all parents the option to stay home with their infants, newly adopted children, or new foster children? (2) Does the policy relieve the cost burden of early child care and education for low- and middle-income families? (3) Does the policy improve quality by investing in the early care and education workforce?
Given the wording of the president’s plan outline, it would appear his efforts will focus on (2) affordability—by either reforming or expanding the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC)—while remaining silent on (1) parental leave policies and (3) improving child care quality. Right off the bat, his hint at child care reform misses key components, and we will show you below that improving affordability through current tax programs misses the target.
Relying on the tax system to improve access to affordable, high quality child care has a number of limitations. As a whole, using the tax system to expand access to affordable child care is especially misguided for three key reasons. First, many families do not have the cash on hand each month to pay out-of-pocket and wait for the end of the year’s tax return. Second, not all current tax credits benefiting household with children are refundable, meaning they are useless if a family owes no taxes. Finally, existing tax programs for child care are not well targeted. In a zero sum world of child care subsidies, many families who arguably don’t need assistance are getting a large share of it.
Union busters are more prevalent than they seem, and may soon even be at the NLRB
Besides the labor secretary, President Trump will name countless federal officials responsible for advocating for working people. One of the most important agencies to which Trump will nominate officials is the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), which protects the rights of private sector employees to join together, with or without a union, to improve their wages and working conditions.
On April 25, POLITICO reported that the Trump administration is considering Minneapolis attorney Doug Seaton to fill a vacancy on the NLRB. Seaton is a well-known union-avoidance consultant, otherwise known as a “persuader” or, more accurately, a union buster.
When workers seek to organize and bargain collectively, employers often hire so-called “persuaders” to orchestrate and roll out time-tested, anti-union campaigns. Union-avoidance consultants do exactly what their job titles describe: they help employers keep their businesses union-free, by either defeating union organizing campaigns or assisting with decertification efforts to unseat an existing union.
Policy Watch: President Trump has had help implementing his anti-worker agenda
Tomorrow marks the 100th day of Donald Trump’s presidency. EPI released a report examining President Trump’s actions in his first 100 days in office and their impact on U.S. workers and our economy. The report reveals that Trump’s top priorities include rolling back worker protections, advancing a budget proposal that would dramatically cut funding for the agencies that safeguard worker’s rights, and nominating individuals to key posts—even to the Supreme Court—who threaten workers’ wages, safety, and bargaining power. But, it is important to remember that President Trump did not accomplish this alone—Congress has been instrumental in advancing this agenda.
Congressional Republicans passed each of the resolutions Trump signed blocking much-needed worker protections. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), after refusing to allow Senate consideration of President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, set a new precedent in the Senate in order to confirm a Supreme Court justice with a record of ruling against workers. Yesterday, the Senate confirmed Alexander Acosta to serve as labor secretary, despite the fact that Acosta failed to answer basic questions regarding how he would run the Labor Department.
As we evaluate Trump’s first 100 days in office, we should consider the important role Congress has played in helping the president accomplish his priorities. Because of the Congressional majority, federal contractors who violate labor and employment laws will continue to be rewarded with taxpayer dollars, unemployment insurance applicants will have additional hurdles to navigate in obtaining earned benefits, and workers will be more likely to be injured or killed on the job. The Perkins Project Policy Watch will continue to track the Trump administration and Congress and provide information on how their actions impact on our nation’s workers.