JOLTS Report is Evidence of an Economy Moving Sideways

Today’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report corroborates last week’s jobs report, which continued to provide evidence that the economy is at best moving at a slow jog, with meager wage growth and employment growth that’s just keeping up with the growth in the working age population. The rate of job openings increased in July, while the hires rate fell and the quits rate remains depressed.

There continues to be a significant gap between the number of people looking for jobs and the number of job openings. The figure below illustrates the overall improvement in the economy over the last five years, as the unemployment level continues to fall and job openings rise. In a tighter economy (like the one shown in the initial year of data), these levels would be much closer together. So it’s clear that there is still a significant amount slack in the economy. Furthermore, on top of the 8+ million unemployed workers warming the bench, there are still more than three million workers sitting in the stands with little hope to even get in the game.

JOLTS

Job openings levels and unemployment levels, December 2000-July 2015

Month Job Openings level Unemployment level
Dec-2000 4.934 5.634
Jan-2001 5.273 6.023
Feb-2001 4.706 6.089
Mar-2001 4.618 6.141
Apr-2001 4.668 6.271
May-2001 4.444 6.226
Jun-2001 4.232 6.484
Jul-2001 4.354 6.583
Aug-2001 4.095 7.042
Sep-2001 3.973 7.142
Oct-2001 3.594 7.694
Nov-2001 3.545 8.003
Dec-2001 3.586 8.258
Jan-2002 3.587 8.182
Feb-2002 3.412 8.215
Mar-2002 3.605 8.304
Apr-2002 3.357 8.599
May-2002 3.525 8.399
Jun-2002 3.325 8.393
Jul-2002 3.343 8.39
Aug-2002 3.462 8.304
Sep-2002 3.319 8.251
Oct-2002 3.502 8.307
Nov-2002 3.585 8.52
Dec-2002 3.074 8.64
Jan-2003 3.686 8.52
Feb-2003 3.402 8.618
Mar-2003 3.101 8.588
Apr-2003 3.182 8.842
May-2003 3.201 8.957
Jun-2003 3.356 9.266
Jul-2003 3.195 9.011
Aug-2003 3.239 8.896
Sep-2003 3.054 8.921
Oct-2003 3.196 8.732
Nov-2003 3.316 8.576
Dec-2003 3.334 8.317
Jan-2004 3.391 8.37
Feb-2004 3.437 8.167
Mar-2004 3.42 8.491
Apr-2004 3.466 8.17
May-2004 3.658 8.212
Jun-2004 3.384 8.286
Jul-2004 3.835 8.136
Aug-2004 3.578 7.99
Sep-2004 3.704 7.927
Oct-2004 3.779 8.061
Nov-2004 3.456 7.932
Dec-2004 3.846 7.934
Jan-2005 3.595 7.784
Feb-2005 3.842 7.98
Mar-2005 3.891 7.737
Apr-2005 4.115 7.672
May-2005 3.824 7.651
Jun-2005 4.018 7.524
Jul-2005 4.162 7.406
Aug-2005 4.085 7.345
Sep-2005 4.227 7.553
Oct-2005 4.23 7.453
Nov-2005 4.341 7.566
Dec-2005 4.249 7.279
Jan-2006 4.278 7.064
Feb-2006 4.308 7.184
Mar-2006 4.537 7.072
Apr-2006 4.495 7.12
May-2006 4.432 6.98
Jun-2006 4.331 7.001
Jul-2006 4.081 7.175
Aug-2006 4.411 7.091
Sep-2006 4.498 6.847
Oct-2006 4.454 6.727
Nov-2006 4.622 6.872
Dec-2006 4.552 6.762
Jan-2007 4.59 7.116
Feb-2007 4.481 6.927
Mar-2007 4.657 6.731
Apr-2007 4.534 6.85
May-2007 4.531 6.766
Jun-2007 4.639 6.979
Jul-2007 4.43 7.149
Aug-2007 4.508 7.067
Sep-2007 4.481 7.17
Oct-2007 4.278 7.237
Nov-2007 4.278 7.24
Dec-2007 4.323 7.645
Jan-2008 4.223 7.685
Feb-2008 4.039 7.497
Mar-2008 4.012 7.822
Apr-2008 3.85 7.637
May-2008 4 8.395
Jun-2008 3.67 8.575
Jul-2008 3.762 8.937
Aug-2008 3.584 9.438
Sep-2008 3.21 9.494
Oct-2008 3.273 10.074
Nov-2008 3.059 10.538
Dec-2008 3.049 11.286
Jan-2009 2.763 12.058
Feb-2009 2.794 12.898
Mar-2009 2.493 13.426
Apr-2009 2.271 13.853
May-2009 2.413 14.499
Jun-2009 2.388 14.707
Jul-2009 2.146 14.601
Aug-2009 2.294 14.814
Sep-2009 2.434 15.009
Oct-2009 2.376 15.352
Nov-2009 2.419 15.219
Dec-2009 2.49 15.098
Jan-2010 2.706 15.046
Feb-2010 2.561 15.113
Mar-2010 2.652 15.202
Apr-2010 3.097 15.325
May-2010 2.9 14.849
Jun-2010 2.728 14.474
Jul-2010 2.929 14.512
Aug-2010 2.869 14.648
Sep-2010 2.782 14.579
Oct-2010 3.026 14.516
Nov-2010 3.072 15.081
Dec-2010 2.909 14.348
Jan-2011 2.917 14.046
Feb-2011 3.065 13.828
Mar-2011 3.132 13.728
Apr-2011 3.099 13.956
May-2011 3.032 13.853
Jun-2011 3.194 13.958
Jul-2011 3.417 13.756
Aug-2011 3.138 13.806
Sep-2011 3.557 13.929
Oct-2011 3.422 13.599
Nov-2011 3.215 13.309
Dec-2011 3.527 13.071
Jan-2012 3.653 12.812
Feb-2012 3.517 12.828
Mar-2012 3.837 12.696
Apr-2012 3.627 12.636
May-2012 3.696 12.668
Jun-2012 3.785 12.688
Jul-2012 3.587 12.657
Aug-2012 3.637 12.449
Sep-2012 3.614 12.106
Oct-2012 3.729 12.141
Nov-2012 3.741 12.026
Dec-2012 3.64 12.272
Jan-2013 3.77 12.497
Feb-2013 4.023 11.967
Mar-2013 3.891 11.653
Apr-2013 3.84 11.735
May-2013 3.829 11.671
Jun-2013 3.864 11.736
Jul-2013 3.829 11.357
Aug-2013 3.893 11.241
Sep-2013 3.955 11.251
Oct-2013 4.076 11.161
Nov-2013 4.073 10.814
Dec-2013 3.977 10.376
Jan-2014 3.906 10.28
Feb-2014 4.160 10.387
Mar-2014 4.210 10.384
Apr-2014 4.417 9.696
May-2014 4.608 9.761
Jun-2014 4.710 9.453
Jul-2014 4.726 9.648
Aug-2014 4.925 9.568
Sep-2014 4.678 9.237
Oct-2014 4.849 8.983
Nov-2014 4.886 9.071
Dec-2014 4.877 8.688
Jan-2015 4.965 8.979
Feb-2015 5.144 8.705
Mar-2015 5.109 8.575
Apr-2015 5.334 8.549
May-2015 5.357 8.674
Jun-2015 5.323 8.299
Jul-2015 5.753 8.266

 

ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Economic Policy Institute

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and Current Population Survey

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Read more

Will Republicans Cut Budgets for Worker Safety, Pension Protection, and Wage and Hour Enforcement?

The White House sent a Labor Day message from Director of the Office of Management and Budget Shaun Donovan about the many important issues affecting working Americans that will be decided in the next month of congressional budget negotiations. The message is well worth reading.

Donovan describes what he calls a “double-pronged attack on the workers we are celebrating today.” This attack includes deep cuts at the Wage and Hour Division, which protects workers against wage theft by crooked employers, and which collected $250 million in back pay for workers last year. Republicans also want limits on the use of third-party experts to accompany OSHA compliance officers on workplace safety inspections, where they can point out hazards OSHA might miss. They want to cut the budget and limit enforcement of the National Labor Relations Board’s rules to protect workers who join together for better working conditions. They want to block a new OSHA rule that will save thousands of workers from death, disabling lung disease, or cancer from inhaling silica dust. And they are trying to kill a new effort by the Department of Labor to protect retirees from financial advisors who put their own interests ahead of their clients’ interests.

None of the laws protecting working Americans from wage theft, on-the-job injury, unlawful retaliation, or self-dealing by financial advisors is meaningful if the government doesn’t enforce them. That takes resources and staff—investigators and lawyers who can take on big corporations or reckless businesses. Yet congressional Republicans want to cut funding for enforcement of all these laws. At OSHA, for example, Republicans want a 10 percent cut—$57 million, even though OSHA’s inspectors already can’t get to even one percent of workplaces in a year, and negligent employers put workers in harm’s way every day and kill nearly 100 employees a week.

Read more

Fisher II—Could a Surprise be in Store?

This post originally appeared on SCOTUSblog, as part of a symposium on Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin, the challenge to the university’s use of affirmative action in its undergraduate admissions process. 

The Supreme Court’s affirmative action decisions have been suffused with hypocrisy. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg called them out, with barely more gentle phrasing, in her lone dissent to the seven-to-one majority opinion the first time Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin (2013) was before the Court. “Only an ostrich,” she observed, “could regard the supposedly neutral alternatives as race unconscious,” and only a (contorted) legal mind “could conclude that an admissions plan designed to produce racial diversity is not race conscious.”

The “diversity” standard in college admissions has gained great popularity because advocates of race-based affirmative action, stymied by the Court since Regents of the University of California v. Bakke, latched onto it as an alternative that could satisfy strict scrutiny. Many proponents have since persuaded themselves that diversity is, after all, a better approach than race-based affirmative action and that if the Court had not required it, we would have had to invent it. Yet while diversity in college classes is certainly an important educational and social goal, its elevation nonetheless dodges the nation’s racial legacy and avoids our constitutional and moral obligation to remedy the effects of centuries of slavery and legally sanctioned segregation. Without acknowledging we were doing so, we have engaged in a legal sleight of hand, substituting enriching the educational experience for remedying past injustice in designing affirmative action policy.

Underlying all this has been the Court majority’s conviction, most recently in Fisher I, that university officials have not identified specific Fourteenth Amendment violations for which their policies are a remedy, and therefore their consideration of race injects, without constitutional justification, a discriminatory racial consideration into the admissions process. The paucity of African Americans at the University of Texas reflects no de jure exclusion, the Fisher I majority believed, but only de factosocial inequality for which there is no race-conscious constitutional remedy. Therefore, including racial diversity in a scheme of skill-based, interest-based, or economic diversity is suspect, requiring very strict scrutiny. Indeed, the conditions set by the Fisher I majority opinion suggest a scrutiny that is strict in theory but fatal in fact. (I discuss the Fisher cases here only as they relate to the treatment of African Americans in affirmative action plans, not to that of other national or ethnic minorities or of disadvantaged economic groups; each has a different history and status, requires different opportunities to succeed, and raises different social policy and constitutional concerns).

Read more

African American Youth Experienced the Largest Boost in Summer Labor Force Participation and Employment

As students head back to school this fall, today’s release of the August jobs numbers provides the first complete look at the summer job market for teens.  As a whole, the stronger start to the 2015 summer jobs season (compared to last summer) signaled by the June youth employment numbers was sustained throughout the summer.  According to seasonally unadjusted teen employment-to-population (EPOP) ratios, averaged for the months of June, July and August, African American youth experienced the largest boost to summer employment compared to last year.  Summer employment was up 2.5 percentage points for black teens, compared to a 1.5 percentage point increase for Hispanic youth and a 1.2 percentage point increase for white teens, as shown in the figure below.  Though black teens continue to have the lowest rates of employment, the 2015 summer youth employment rate for black teens was closer to its 2007 pre-Great Recession rate than were those of white and Hispanic youth.

Valerie

Average teenage (16-19 years) summer employment to population ratio, 2007,2014, and 2015

2007 2014 2015
white 43.9 34.3 35.5
black 23.0 19.3 21.8
hispanic 31.0 25.0 26.5
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Economic Policy Institute

Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Read more

The Bottom Line of this Jobs Report: The Fed Should Hold the Line and Let the Economy Continue to Recover

The official unemployment rate (the U3) is only one data point—one that doesn’t include workers who have left the labor force because of weak opportunities or workers who want to be working full-time but can only get part-time work. The fact is that the economy is still not adding jobs fast enough, and the recovery is not creating strong wage growth. The best advice is for the Federal Reserve to continue doing what they’re rightfully doing—keeping rates low to let the economy recovery. Many pundits have been quick to encourage the Federal Reserve to raise rates, but a close look at the data shows that the economy still needs time to grow.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by only 173,000 in August. While it’s best not to read too much into one month’s data, this brings average monthly job growth down to 212,000 so far in 2015. 2014 saw faster jobs growth: an average of 260,000. By that measure alone, we aren’t seeing an accelerating recovery. In fact, at this slower rate of growth, a full jobs recovery is still two years away.

jobgrowth_aug15

A great example of just how slow this job recovery is going is the flat prime-age employment-to-population ratio (EPOP). This means the economy is only adding enough jobs to keep up with prime-age population growth—nothing more, nothing less. It means the economy is moving at a pace where we are not working off any of the joblessness that remains from the Great Recession. The prime-age EPOP in August (77.2 percent) is still below the lowest trough of the last two recessions (78.1 percent). We have a long way to go before this data point says recovery.

Read more

Why a Pro-Worker Agenda is an Anti-Poverty Agenda

This blog post originally appeared on TalkPoverty.org.

Labor Day is a time to honor America’s workers and their contributions to our economy. It is also a time to reflect upon the state of workers’ economic position, and how that position has faltered in recent decades. Except for a short period of across-the-board wage growth in the late 1990s, 2015 marks a general 36-year trend of broad-based wage stagnation and rising inequality in our country, which has had real, adverse effects on low- and middle-income households. This anemic wage growth is closely tied to the stalled progress in reducing poverty since 1979, as many poor people work and their incomes are increasingly dependent upon work. Therefore, along with strengthening the safety net, the goals of anti-poverty advocates should be one in the same with pro-worker advocates: to reverse the decades-long trend of wage stagnation and promote real wage growth for all Americans.

Despite dramatic gains in educational attainment, wages have failed to grow for those at the bottom (and middle) over the last four decades. At the same time, low income household incomes have become increasingly dependent on wages. The figure below shows the major sources of income for non-elderly households in the bottom fifth of the income distribution from 1979 to 2011, using the CBO’s measure of comprehensive income. It shows that incomes of the bottom fifth are increasingly dependent on ties to the workforce. Wages, employer-provided benefits, and tax credits that are dependent on work (such as the EITC) made up 68.3 percent of non-elderly bottom-fifth incomes in 2011, compared with only 58.2 percent in 1979. While government in-kind benefits from sources such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly food stamps) and Medicaid increased from 13.2 percent of these bottom-fifth incomes in 1979, to 19.5 percent in 2011, cash transfers such as welfare payments have declined 9.2 percentage points (from 18.6 percent to 9.4 percent).

Read more

Netflix’s Paid Parental Leave Policy Reflects a Sad Reality Facing Working Families

At the beginning of August, Netflix announced that it would grant its employees “unlimited” parental leave during the first year after a child’s birth or adoption. After the initial praise, though, a darker side of the announcement was revealed: only “salaried streaming employees”—the roughly 2,000 white-collar workers who work in the company’s streaming division—will be covered by the new policy.  Employees of Netflix’s DVD distribution centers, meanwhile, will not receive the benefit of paid parental leave.

A few have asked whether or not Netflix’s paid parental leave policy will set a new standard in the American workplace. Unfortunately, the exclusion of its lower-paid workers from the policy already reflects a harsh reality facing U.S. workers: paid family leave is a rarity, and when it is offered, the recipients are much more likely to be high-wage earners.

As the figure above shows, only 12 percent of private sector workers in the United States receive paid family leave, a number that puts us behind our international peers. (Among the 34 OECD nations, for example, the United States is the only nation that does not mandate paid maternity leave.) Which workers receive paid family leave is heavily determined by how much they earn—just like Netflix’s policy. While 23 percent of workers at the top of the wage distribution have access to paid family leave, only 4 percent of workers at the bottom receive the benefit.

Read more

What to Watch on Jobs Day: The Economy Needs to Simmer for a While, Not Cool Off

This month, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet to decide whether to raise interest rates in order to slow down the economy and ward off incipient inflation, and I know I sound like a broken record, but, the stakes are too high not to keep repeating the same message over and over again. So let me say it again: the economy doesn’t need to cool off. It needs to simmer a while longer. Unfortunately, a serious look at the economy suggests slow growth, and not a hint of acceleration—making a rate hike terribly premature.

In light of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, the two measures I’ll be closely watching on Friday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its monthly jobs report, are nominal hourly wage growth and the prime-age employment-to-population ratio (EPOP).

Nominal wage growth is one of the top indicators the Fed should watch as it considers whether or not to raise rates, and I don’t see much positive news there. Wage growth has been pretty flat for the last five years, as shown in the chart below. Lately, it’s been teetering in the 1.8 to 2.2 percent range. By any standard, that’s anemic. And there has certainly not been any sign of acceleration in these data.

Read more

NLRB Decision in Browning-Ferris Restores Employer Accountability for Wages and Working Conditions

Last week’s decision by the National Labor Relations Board regarding Browning-Ferris Industries of California (BFI) is a big victory for working people and labor advocates. By holding that BFI is a joint employer with the staffing agency that provides all but a few of the workers at one of BFI’s recycling centers, the decision closes one of the many loopholes corporations use to avoid paying decent wages, Social Security and Medicare taxes, worker’s compensation premiums and unemployment insurance taxes, and to avoid even providing a safe workplace.

Millions of people work for employers that want their time, their sweat, and their creativity —but don’t want to treat them as employees. The companies have put middle-men between themselves and their workers and—– thanks to Reagan-era legal changes—have avoided their responsibilities, including the duty to recognize and bargain with employee unions. Now, after 30 years of watching corporations evade these obligations with the government’s blessing, the key labor agencies of the federal government are saying, “enough is enough.” The NLRB is following the lead of David Weil, the Department of Labor’s Wage and Hour Division administrator, who has begun cracking down on phony independent contractor arrangements.

This victory, like most labor victories these days, is bittersweet. On the one hand, whenever a government agency protects or expands the rights of workers to organize and bargain collectively, or holds a corporation accountable for its treatment of workers, it is a cause for celebration. On the other hand, all the BFI decision does is restore the law regarding joint employers to where it was until 1984. Things weren’t going all that well for the labor movement even before the Reagan era, and the BFI joint employer doctrine won’t level the playing field between workers and corporations. It just turns back the clock to a fairer set of rules.

Read more

Walgreens’s ‘No Overtime’ Rule: Why I Support Raising the Overtime Threshold

My name is Caleb Sneeringer, and I worked for Walgreens for six years. I was first hired in 2008 as an assistant manager, and in 2010 I was promoted to executive assistant manager—my first salaried position with Walgreens. I earned a salary of $46,000 and was scheduled for 45 hours a week.

Unfortunately, 45 hours a week quickly turned into 55–70 hours. You see, around the time of my promotion, Walgreens implemented a “no overtime” rule for hourly employees. In my store this and other budget cuts resulted in a loss of approximately 150 hours a week among hourly employees—and their work and responsibilities were shifted to salaried staff. This created a more unpredictable scheduling situation, and many store associates were forced to use SNAP assistance (i.e., food stamps) to meet their basic needs.

Right now, the U.S. Department of Labor is considering an important rule change that would affect salaried workers and overtime pay. If implemented, the overtime salary threshold will be raised from $23,660 to $50,440. For me, my former coworkers at Walgreens, and millions of workers across the country, this rule change will mean the right to receive the overtime pay we are owed.

Read more