The Older Workers and Retirement Chartbook Chapter 1. Older workers

Jump to the charts

What economic challenges do older workers face?

America’s workforce is aging. During the economic recovery that followed the Great Recession of 2008–2009, four in 10 Americans ages 55 or older were in the labor force, the highest participation rate in half a century. These older workers made up 23.6% of the overall labor force in 2020, the highest share on record (authors’ analysis of BLS 1948–2021). Though the COVID-19 pandemic had a disproportionate impact on older workers, causing their share of the workforce to dip slightly in 2021 (to 23.4%), the dip is likely to prove only a temporary interruption of a longer-term trend reflecting the aging of the large baby boomer cohort, slower population growth, longer life expectancies, and later retirement (Toossi and Torpey 2017; Huston 2019).

The Older Workers and Retirement Chartbook

A joint project of EPI and the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis

Some Americans are happy to keep working at older ages for financial and social reasons, but others work reluctantly in low-paying, physically taxing jobs that do not offer a path to retirement (Ghilarducci et al. 2021; Gatta and Horning 2022; Bruder 2017). The policy choices that shape their working lives weakened workers’ bargaining power, eroded the real value of the minimum wage and other labor standards, allowed employers to shift more responsibility for health care and retirement onto workers, and failed to protect workers from wage theft, employee misclassification, health and safety violations, and other abuses (Bivens et al. 2014; Cooper and Kroeger 2017; EPI 2018).


Labor force participation among older Americans is steady or increasing: Labor force participation rate of older Americans, by gender and age, 1982–2022

1A
Men ages 55–64 Women ages 55–64 Men age 65+ Women age 65+
1982 70.2% 41.8% 17.8% 7.9%
1983 69.4% 41.5% 17.5% 7.9%
1984 68.5% 41.7% 16.4% 7.6%
1985 68.0% 42.0% 15.8% 7.3%
1986 67.3% 42.3% 16.0% 7.4%
1987 67.6% 42.6% 16.3% 7.4%
1988 67.0% 43.4% 16.5% 7.9%
1989 67.2% 45.1% 16.7% 8.4%
1990 67.7% 45.2% 16.4% 8.6%
1991 66.9% 45.4% 15.7% 8.6%
1992 67.0% 46.6% 16.1% 8.3%
1993 66.7% 47.3% 15.6% 8.1%
1994 65.7% 48.9% 16.7% 9.1%
1995 66.0% 49.3% 16.7% 8.8%
1996 67.0% 49.6% 16.7% 8.5%
1997 67.7% 50.9% 17.0% 8.6%
1998 68.1% 51.1% 16.4% 8.6%
1999 68.0% 51.6% 16.9% 8.8%
2000 67.2% 51.6% 17.7% 9.4%
2001 68.0% 53.2% 17.8% 9.5%
2002 69.1% 55.1% 18.0% 9.9%
2003 68.7% 56.8% 18.5% 10.6%
2004 68.9% 56.5% 18.8% 11.1%
2005 69.3% 57.0% 19.7% 11.5%
2006 69.6% 58.3% 20.4% 11.6%
2007 69.6% 58.2% 20.5% 12.7%
2008 70.4% 59.1% 21.4% 13.2%
2009 70.2% 59.9% 21.9% 13.7%
2010 70.1% 60.4% 22.1% 13.8%
2011 69.3% 59.8% 22.8% 14.0%
2012 70.0% 59.4% 23.5% 14.5%
2013 70.0% 59.2% 23.5% 14.9%
2014 69.8% 58.8% 22.9% 15.1%
2015 70.0% 58.5% 23.3% 15.3%
2016 70.2% 58.4% 23.9% 15.6%
2017 70.7% 59.0% 23.9% 15.6%
2018 71.4% 59.3% 23.9% 16.0%
2019 71.6% 59.7% 24.6% 16.4%
2020 70.8% 58.9% 23.9% 15.9%
2021 70.4% 59.1% 23.2% 15.3%
2022 70.8% 60.1% 23.7% 15.2%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Notes: Labor force participants are employed workers and unemployed workers who are actively seeking work. The labor force participation rate for a given age group is the number of labor force participants divided by the total number of people in that age group.

Labor force participants are employed workers and unemployed workers who are actively seeking work. The labor force participation rate for a given age group is the number of labor force participants divided by the total number of people in that age group. The measure does not include discouraged workers who would like to work but are not actively looking due to weak job opportunities.

Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) analysis of microdata from the Current Population Survey (CPS) 1976–2022 Outgoing Rotation Group, extracted from CPS-IPUMS (Flood et al. 2021).

The labor force participation (LFP) rate of 55- to 64-year-olds—the share of the population that is either working or looking for work—has leveled off over the last decade and a half. In the preceding decades, it climbed steadily for women while falling slightly for men. Meanwhile, the LFP of both men and women age 65 and older has trended upward over the last 30 years. These trends of steady or increasing labor force participation among older workers contrast with a long-term decline in the LFP of prime-age workers (those ages 25–54), not shown in the chart. Researchers have attributed that decline to a lack of support for working women with caregiving responsibilities and declining job opportunities for men without college degrees, among other factors (see, for example, Hipple 2016; Krueger 2017; Richter, Chapman, and Mihaylov 2018).

The increase in labor force participation among Americans age 65 and older likely reflects both positive and negative factors: improved health and job opportunities for highly educated seniors alongside declining retirement security for less educated workers. Meanwhile, the stagnant LFP among Americans ages 55–64 is the result of offsetting trends. On one hand, fewer 55-year-olds are still working as a result of the decline in prime-age LFP. On the other hand, those who are still working at age 55 are retiring later, causing a shallower decline in LFP for workers in the 55–64 age range.

Share this chart:

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Hispanic and Asian American men have the highest labor force participation among older Americans: Labor force participation rate of older Americans, by race and ethnicity, gender, and age, 2022

1B
White Black Hispanic AAPI
Men 71.2% 60.6% 77.2% 73.3%
Women 61.4% 58.1% 56.9% 60.5%
Men 23.7% 21.7% 27.4% 21.5%
Women 15.2% 16.2% 12.5% 17.2%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Notes: Labor force participants are employed workers and unemployed workers who are actively seeking work. The labor force participation rate for a given age group is the number of labor force participants divided by the total number of people in that age group. Hispanic refers to Hispanic of any race, while white, Black, and AAPI refer to non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, and non-Hispanic Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders. Data cover the first half of 2022.

Labor force participants are employed workers and unemployed workers who are actively seeking work. The labor force participation rate for a given age group is the number of labor force participants divided by the total number of people in that age group. Hispanic refers to Hispanic of any race, while white, Black, and AAPI refer to non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, and non-Hispanic Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders. Data cover the first half of 2022. The measure does not include discouraged workers who would like to work but are not actively looking due to weak job opportunities.

Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) analysis of monthly microdata from the Current Population Survey (CPS) Outgoing Rotation Group for January–July 2022 (Flood et al. 2021).

Hispanic and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) men have the highest labor force participation rates among Americans ages 55–64, followed by white men. Hispanic men are also more likely than men in any other racial or ethnic group to continue working (or looking for work) past age 65. Across both groups of older men, Black men have the lowest labor force participation rates, and research suggests that poor health is a key reason why older Black men exit the labor force (Quinby and Wettstein 2021).

Racial and ethnic differences in labor force participation among older women ages 55–64 are less noticeable than among older men in this age group. However, Hispanic women are less likely than other women to be working at older ages.

Share this chart:

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Many older workers have physically demanding jobs: Share of older workers in physically demanding jobs, by educational attainment and age, 2018

1C
Share of workers in physically demanding jobs 
All educations 31.6%
No college degree 41.1%
Bachelor’s degree or more 15.0%
All educations 24.1%
No college degree 32.3%
Bachelor’s degree or more 14.5%

 

ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Notes: Workers are in a physically demanding job if they answered that their job requires “lots of physical effort” “all” or “most” of the time.

Workers are in a physically demanding job if they answered that their job requires “lots of physical effort” “all” or “most” of the time. The sample includes full- and part-time workers ages 55 and older participating in the RAND Health and Retirement Study (HRS) survey.

Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) analysis of Health and Retirement Study data (RAND 2022; University of Michigan 2022).

There is a common assumption that jobs are becoming less physically demanding, enabling workers to continue working at older ages. However, progress in recent decades has been slow and uneven. According to research not shown in the chart, despite a shift from moderately physical jobs to sedentary but cognitively demanding ones, there has been a slower decline in the share of older workers with jobs requiring intense or sustained physical effort (Johnson 2004; Johnson, Mermin, and Resseger 2007; Ghilarducci et al. 2016).

As shown in the chart, three in 10 (31.6%) workers ages 55–64, and four in 10 (41.1%) non-college-educated workers in this age group, reported working in jobs that required “lots of physical effort” most or all of the time. While the share of non-college-educated workers with physically demanding jobs is lower at age 65 and older, it remains surprisingly high (32.3%).

Other research echoes these findings. Researchers at the Center for Economic Policy Research, for example, found that 34.8% of workers 58 and older had physically demanding jobs in 2009 (Rho 2010), a share that was essentially unchanged (34.5%) five years later (Bucknor and Baker 2016). Similarly, a RAND survey found that 37.5% of workers ages 50 and older regularly moved heavy loads or people, 36.8% often worked in tiring or painful positions, and 29.3% had jobs that involved standing all or almost all of the time, with a majority of older workers (58.0%) exposed to at least one of these difficult working conditions (Maestas et al. 2017).

Share this chart:

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Older Black and Hispanic workers are much more likely than older white workers to have physically demanding jobs: Share of older workers in physically demanding jobs, by race and ethnicity, gender, and age, 2018

1D
Share of workers in physically demanding jobs  White Black Hispanic
Men 29.5% 48.2% 47.1%
Women 25.6% 41.4% 43.1%
Men 15.9% 43.1% 37.2%
Women 26.2% 33.1% 43.8%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Notes: Workers are in a physically demanding job if they answered that their job requires “lots of physical effort” “all” or “most” of the time. Hispanic refers to Hispanic of any race, while white and Black refer to non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic Blacks.

Workers are in a physically demanding job if they answered that their job requires “lots of physical effort” “all” or “most” of the time. Hispanic refers to Hispanic of any race, while white and Black refer to non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic Blacks. The sample includes full- and part-time workers ages 55 and older participating in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) survey.

Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) analysis of Health and Retirement Study data (RAND 2022; University of Michigan 2022).

Older workers perform more physically taxing work than might be expected, and older Black and Hispanic workers are much more likely than white workers to have physically demanding jobs. The share of Black and Hispanic workers with jobs that require “lots of physical effort” all or most of the time is above 40% for those ages 55–64 and remains high (above 30%) for those age 65 and older.

Though there has been a shift over time toward less physically demanding work, this shift has been concentrated among white workers (Ghilarducci et al. 2016; not shown in the chart). Between 1992 and 2014, the share of white workers ages 55–62 with jobs described as requiring “lots of physical effort” decreased 7 percentage points. But during that period there was just a 1 percentage point decline in the share of Black workers in that age group with such jobs.

The distribution of physically taxing jobs is mixed when it comes to gender. Men ages 55–64 are more likely to have physically demanding jobs than women ages 55–64, but among workers 65 and older, white and Hispanic men are less likely than white and Hispanic women to have physically demanding jobs. This does not contradict other research finding that older men generally have more physically demanding jobs because workers 65 and older are a relatively small share of the older workforce (Maestas et al. 2017; Rho 2010).

Share this chart:

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Union representation has declined among workers approaching retirement: Share of workers represented by a union, by age, 1983–2021

1E
Year Ages 25–54 Ages 55–64 Age 65+
1983 26.4% 29.6% 11.5%
1984 24.9% 27.8% 11.3%
1985 23.4% 27.5% 10.5%
1986 22.4% 26.4% 10.4%
1987 21.8% 25.3% 11.0%
1988 21.5% 25.7% 10.4%
1989 20.9% 24.4% 10.7%
1990 20.4% 24.2% 10.3%
1991 20.2% 23.3% 9.8%
1992 19.9% 22.8% 10.3%
1993 19.7% 22.8% 9.8%
1994 19.5% 22.8% 10.3%
1995 18.6% 21.5% 9.4%
1996 18.1% 20.8% 8.4%
1997 17.4% 20.7% 8.2%
1998 17.1% 20.2% 8.3%
1999 17.0% 19.4% 9.1%
2000 16.5% 19.6% 9.7%
2001 16.4% 18.7% 9.0%
2002 16.0% 19.0% 9.0%
2003 15.6% 18.7% 8.8%
2004 15.2% 18.4% 9.0%
2005 14.9% 18.0% 10.1%
2006 14.3% 17.6% 9.5%
2007 14.3% 17.7% 9.6%
2008 14.7% 18.4% 10.2%
2009 14.4% 18.1% 10.7%
2010 14.0% 17.2% 10.4%
2011 13.8% 17.2% 11.4%
2012 13.2% 16.5% 10.3%
2013 13.3% 15.8% 10.5%
2014 13.1% 15.5% 11.0%
2015 13.0% 15.7% 10.9%
2016 12.7% 14.8% 10.7%
2017 12.7% 14.9% 10.5%
2018 12.4% 14.7% 10.5%
2019 12.3% 14.0% 10.9%
2020 12.9% 14.6% 10.1%
2021 12.5% 13.6% 9.9%
2022 11.9% 13.4% 10.8%

 

ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Notes: Workers are represented by a union if they are union members or if they are not members but report that they are covered by a union contract.

Workers are represented by a union if they are union members or if they are not members but report that they are covered by a union contract. The sample includes wage and salary workers.

Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) analysis of Current Population Survey (CPS) Outgoing Rotation Group microdata, January 1983–June 2022 (Flood et al. 2021).

Union representation has generally declined as labor laws and institutions—notably the weak penalties imposed on employers engaged in unfair labor practices—increasingly serve to help private-sector employers block organizing efforts (Mishel, Rhinehart, and Windham 2020). As the chart shows, this is true for workers ages 55–64 as well as prime-age workers ages 25–54.

An exception is workers 65 and older, who are less likely to be represented by a union than younger workers but have not seen a decline in representation. These workers are more likely to work in part-time and other noncareer jobs not covered by union contracts, according to EPI and SCEPA analysis of Health and Retirement Survey data (RAND 2022; University of Michigan 2022; see also Johnson, Kawachi, and Lewis 2009). Their low but stable union representation may be because union workers are retiring at older ages because of a shift away from physically demanding manufacturing jobs (Bivens et al. 2017) and because many pension plans for unionized public-sector workers have raised their normal retirement ages (Brainard and Brown 2018).

Share this chart:

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Many older workers leave the workforce sooner than planned, but union workers are less likely to experience involuntary retirement: Share of retired older workers who retired involuntarily, by union representation and age (2014–2018 pooled data)

1F
Involuntary retirement rate
All workers 53.6%
Not unionized 58.6%
Unionized 36.7%
All workers 45.1%
Not unionized 46.2%
Unionized 35.2%

 

ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Notes: The sample includes individuals who reported being retired in the current survey but working as employees in the previous one. Involuntary retirement is defined as retirement preceded by poor health or disability (including poor mental health or stress); by a layoff, business closure, or ownership change; or by changes in working conditions or compensation.

The sample includes individuals who reported being retired in the current survey but working as employees in the previous one. Involuntary retirement is defined as retirement preceded by poor health or disability (including poor mental health or stress); by a layoff, business closure, or ownership change; or by changes in working conditions or compensation. The share of workers who retired involuntarily would be higher if it included workers who retired for caregiving reasons, but the survey questions do not differentiate between workers who retired when faced with caregiving responsibilities and those retirees who simply wanted to spend more time with family. Workers are represented by a union if they are union members or if they are not members but report that they are covered by a union contract. Self-employed workers are assumed to not be unionized.

Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) analysis of Health and Retirement Study data (RAND 2022; University of Michigan 2022).

Many workers who retire in their 50s or early 60s do so after experiencing poor health, job loss, deteriorating working conditions, or reduced earnings. Among retired workers ages 55–64, slightly more than half (53.6%) retired involuntarily. The share is lower among retirees age 65 and older (45.1%), simply because more workers in this age group are ready to retire and thus do so voluntarily. The high share of involuntary retirements before age 65 shows that the plan to work to age 65 or older—voiced by roughly half of workers (Munnell, Rutledge, and Sanzenbacher 2019)—is often unrealistic. Other research has confirmed high rates of involuntary retirement and suggests that involuntary retirement may be increasing (Munnell, Rutledge, and Sanzenbacher 2019; Johnson and Gosselin 2018).

The chart also shows that union members are less likely to be forced to retire. This is likely because unions offer better protections against arbitrary termination and union jobs offer better health and leave benefits. Differences in the composition of the unionized and nonunionized workforce may also play a role, as public-sector workers, who are more likely to have college degrees and white-collar jobs, are also more likely to belong to unions (Gould 2020b; Bivens et al. 2017). Finally, workers represented by a union are more likely than nonunion workers to have access to a retirement plan at work and are better prepared for retirement, according to analysis of 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances microdata (Federal Reserve 2022a). This gives union workers more control over how long to work and when to retire.

Share this chart:

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Older workers without a college degree are more likely to be forced into retirement: Share of retired older workers who retired involuntarily, by educational attainment and age (2014–2018 pooled data)

1G
Involuntary retirement rate
No college degree 58.6%
Bachelor’s degree or more 43.2%
No college degree 47.5%
Bachelor’s degree or more 41.0%

 

ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Notes: The sample includes individuals who reported being retired in the current survey but working as employees in the previous one. Involuntary retirement is defined as retirement preceded by poor health or disability (including poor mental health or stress); by a layoff, business closure, or ownership change; or by changes in working conditions or compensation.

The sample includes individuals who reported being retired in the current survey but working as employees in the previous one. Involuntary retirement is defined as retirement preceded by poor health or disability (including poor mental health or stress); by a layoff, business closure, or ownership change; or by changes in working conditions or compensation. The share of workers who retired involuntarily would be higher if it included workers who retired for caregiving reasons, but the survey questions do not differentiate between workers who retired when faced with caregiving responsibilities and those retirees who simply wanted to spend more time with family. Workers are represented by a union if they are union members or if they are not members but report that they are covered by a union contract. Self-employed workers are assumed to not be unionized.

Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) analysis of Health and Retirement Study data (RAND 2022; University of Michigan 2022).

The commonly expressed desire to work until age 65 or older is unrealistic for many older workers, particularly those without a college degree. Over half (58.6%) of non-college-educated retirees ages 55–64, and nearly half (47.5%) of their 65-and-older counterparts, experienced poor health, job loss, deteriorating working conditions, or reduced earnings at their last job. These non-college-educated workers are more likely than college-educated workers to be in poor health, which is the biggest cause of involuntary retirement (Munnell, Rutledge, and Sanzenbacher 2019; Rutledge 2018b).

Share this chart:

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Older men and women both face high rates of involuntary retirement: Share of retired older workers who retired involuntarily, by gender and age (2014–2018 pooled data)

1H
Involuntary retirement rate
Men 54.7%
Women 52.7%
Men 46.2%
Women 44.0%

 

ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Notes: The sample includes individuals who reported being retired in the current survey but working as employees in the previous one. Involuntary retirement is defined as retirement preceded by poor health or disability (including poor mental health or stress); by a layoff, business closure, or ownership change; or by changes in working conditions or compensation.

The sample includes individuals who reported being retired in the current survey but working as employees in the previous one. Involuntary retirement is defined as retirement preceded by poor health or disability (including poor mental health or stress); by a layoff, business closure, or ownership change; or by changes in working conditions or compensation. The share of workers who retired involuntarily would be higher if it included workers who retired for caregiving reasons, but the survey questions do not differentiate between workers who retired when faced with caregiving responsibilities and those retirees who simply wanted to spend more time with family.

Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) analysis of Health and Retirement Study data (RAND 2022; University of Michigan 2022).

Just over half (52.7%) of 55- to 64-year-old women who retired did so after experiencing poor health, job loss, deteriorating working conditions, or reduced earnings at their last job. The share of men in this age group experiencing involuntary retirement is even higher (54.7%). The difference could be because men are more likely to have physically demanding jobs that are challenging for workers in poor health (Maestas et al. 2017) or simply because many women voluntarily retire before age 65 to retire around the same time as older husbands (Maestas 2018). Workers who retire at older ages are more likely than their younger counterparts to do so voluntarily. Nevertheless, 46.2% of retired men and 44.0% of retired women age 65 and older retired after it became more difficult or impossible to continue working.

Share this chart:

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Most older Hispanic and Black workers who retire before age 65 do so involuntarily: Share of retired older workers who retired involuntarily, by race, ethnicity, and age (2014–2018 pooled data)

1I
Involuntary retirement rate
White 51.6%
Black 60.8%
Hispanic 60.2%
White 44.8%
Black 52.5%
Hispanic 39.0%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Notes: The sample includes individuals who reported being retired in the current survey but working in the previous one. Involuntary retirement is defined as retirement preceded by poor health or disability (including poor mental health or stress); by a layoff, business closure, or ownership change; or by changes in working conditions or compensation. Hispanic refers to Hispanic of any race while white and Black refer to non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic Blacks.

Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) analysis of Health and Retirement Study data (RAND 2022; University of Michigan 2022).

Six out of 10 Hispanic and Black 55- to 64-year-olds who retired had experienced poor health, job loss, deteriorating working conditions, or reduced earnings at their last job. In contrast, just over half (51.6%) of white workers who retired before age 65 did so involuntarily. White workers are more likely than their Hispanic and Black peers to retire voluntarily because they have the means to forgo job earnings and have access to affordable health insurance before attaining Medicare eligibility at age 65 (Copeland and Greenwald 2021).

Financial pressures hindering voluntary retirement reported by more Black and Hispanic workers include low income and wealth, as well as the need to pay off debt, provide economic support to friends and family, and pay for a child’s education. These pressures lead to wider gaps between when Black and Hispanic workers expect to retire and the actual experience of Black and Hispanic retirees (relative to white retirees’ expectations and experiences of retirement).

Share this chart:

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Tighter labor markets decrease older workers’ job insecurity and thus strengthen their bargaining power: Workers’ average self-assessed probability of not getting rehired at the same level if they lost their job, by age, 2002–2018

1J
Year Ages 55–64 Age 65+
2002 53.8% 60.3%
2004 55.0% 61.3%
2006 53.7% 62.7%
2010 64.4% 72.3%
2012 59.3% 67.8%
2014 55.1% 63.3%
2016 49.9% 59.2%
2018 45.7% 57.2%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Notes: Probabilities are based on workers’ responses to a questionnaire that asks, “Suppose you were to lose your job this month. What do you think are the chances that you could find an equally good job in the same line of work within the next few months?” The sample includes employees who reported working full- or part-time and excludes self-employed and partially retired workers.

Probabilities are based on workers’ responses to a questionnaire that asks, “Suppose you were to lose your job this month. What do you think are the chances that you could find an equally good job in the same line of work within the next few months?” The sample includes employees who reported working full- or part-time and excludes self-employed and partially retired workers. The chart shows the average response subtracted from 100%, since the original answers to the question measured workers’ confidence, not their insecurity.

Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) analysis of Health and Retirement Study data (RAND 2022; University of Michigan 2022).

High shares of older workers are pessimistic about their work options should they lose their job. Research shows that older workers are more likely than younger workers (not shown in the chart) to think they cannot find a job comparable to their current one—a well-founded fear that exists at every earnings level and reflects the reality of an unfriendly labor market for older job seekers (RELAB 2020). The chart shows that this belief is especially prevalent among workers age 65 and older, though a tight labor market gives these workers more confidence about their job prospects.

As the chart shows, when the economy in 2010 was reeling from the Great Recession, nearly three-fourths (72.3%) of workers age 65 and older and nearly two-thirds (64.4%) of workers ages 55–64 said that if they lost their job they would not find a comparable one. Those shares were far lower in 2018, when the economy had fully recovered and the unemployment rate was less than half of what it was in 2010 (BLS 2022b).

In addition to facing age discrimination in hiring, older workers may have more job-specific skills that are less valuable to other employers. The difficulty older workers face in finding a comparable job, which is similar for college-educated and non-college-educated workers and for white, Black, and Hispanic workers (not shown in the chart), weakens their ability to bargain for better pay and working conditions (RELAB 2020).

Share this chart:

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Older women are more likely than older men to lack confidence in their job prospects: Workers’ average self-assessed probability of not getting rehired at the same level if they lost their job, by gender and age, 2018

1K
Probability of getting rehired
All 45.7%
Men 43.7%
Women 47.9%
All 57.2%
Men 53.9%
Women 60.8%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Notes: Probabilities are based on workers’ responses to a questionnaire that asks, “Suppose you were to lose your job this month. What do you think are the chances that you could find an equally good job in the same line of work within the next few months?” The sample includes employees who reported working full- or part-time and excludes self-employed and partially retired workers.

Probabilities are based on workers’ responses to a questionnaire that asks, “Suppose you were to lose your job this month. What do you think are the chances that you could find an equally good job in the same line of work within the next few months?” The sample includes employees who reported working full- or part-time and excludes self-employed and partially retired workers. The chart shows the average response subtracted from 100%, since the original answers to the question measured workers’ confidence, not their insecurity.

Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) analysis of Health and Retirement Study data (RAND 2022; University of Michigan 2022).

Nearly half of workers ages 55–64 and well over half of those age 65 and older think they would not be able to get a comparable job if they lost their current job. Older women have higher rates of perceived job insecurity, probably with good reason. Lahey (2008), for example, found that younger women job applicants were more than 40% more likely than older women applicants to be called for interviews for entry-level jobs. Another study, by Neumark, Burn, and Button (2019), found that potential employers discriminate against both middle-aged (ages 49–51) and older (ages 64–66) women applicants even for jobs that are not physically demanding. In contrast, middle-aged men do not face discrimination for physically demanding or not physically demanding jobs. It is only older men who face job discrimination, and only when they are applying for physically demanding jobs.

Share this chart:

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.


See more work by Monique Morrissey, Siavash Radpour, and Barbara Schuster