Chicago Public Schools should try to maintain spending levels even as federal pandemic relief funds come to an end
The nation’s third-largest public school system—Chicago Public Schools (CPS)—has begun developing its budget for the next fiscal year. Like the rest of the country’s schools, this budget marks the end of the district’s financial support from the Elementary and Secondary Schools Emergency Relief III Funds (ESSER III) provided during the COVID crisis. CPS invested its ESSER dollars in school staff, and it was the right choice: Chicago students had exceptional academic outcomes compared with similar districts during the pandemic recovery.
Public schools, especially schools that serve students of color, are facing severe staffing shortages that threaten students’ ability to learn. Even with the staffing improvements made possible by COVID-related fiscal relief, CPS per-pupil spending levels are not sufficient to meet recognized educational adequacy benchmarks. CPS’s 2025 budget should target maintaining recent spending levels to support the recruitment and retention of qualified staff, particularly in low-income neighborhoods and schools that serve students of color.
U.S. economy shows steady job growth in June
Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 206,000 jobs added in June. Read the full thread here.
Payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, with notable downward revisions in the prior two months. Employment growth is expected to slow as the labor market approaches full employment. The Federal Reserve should get a clear message that we are not in a hot labor market. pic.twitter.com/aQwRkGrh3A
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) July 5, 2024
June’s gain of 206,000 jobs is on par with the average gain over the prior 12 months. There were notable increases in health care and social assistance as well as in public sector employment, primarily at the state and local level. pic.twitter.com/Reed6bxxfK
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) July 5, 2024
While there’s more volatility in monthly and quarterly changes in wages, the deceleration in nominal wage growth is clear across all measures. There is no evidence of inflationary pressures coming from the labor market. pic.twitter.com/i7nKjjVY5I
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) July 5, 2024
Much of the employment gains appear to be driven by men as their prime-age employment-to-population ratio rose, getting closer to their pre-pandemic levels. Prime-age women experienced some declines in June, but remain above their pre-pandemic high. pic.twitter.com/7l5ZrgGNSh
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) July 5, 2024
What to watch on jobs day: The labor market is better by some measures than before the pandemic
Over the last few months, some have expressed concern over mild softening in certain labor market measures. For instance, after hitting a low of 3.4% in 2023, the unemployment rate slowly crept back up to 4.0% in May 2024. Ideally, unemployment would remain as low as possible, but unemployment has now been at or below 4.0% for 30 months running—the longest such stretch since the late 1960s. To put some of this in perspective, I’ve made a few comparisons with pre-pandemic unemployment and employment rates to show just how well today’s labor market stacks up. Spoiler: Even while some measures have softened a bit from peaks in 2022 and 2023, the overall picture remains stronger than what we saw in 2019.
Hiring and job openings grew slightly in May: Analysis of JOLTS data
Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on today’s release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May. Read the full thread here.
Small uptick in job openings and hires for May 2024. Otherwise, not a lot changed in the JOLTS report out this morning from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://t.co/dXEZgZoGFw). “Changed little” or “little changed” appears 13 times in the release. pic.twitter.com/xzal5QM1xT
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) July 2, 2024
Labor market churn continues to trend down along with the general downward trend in job openings. The quits rate is below its pre-pandemic average, a sign that workers are sitting tight. Layoffs remain low while hires are up slightly. pic.twitter.com/KUrAUVcICW
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) July 2, 2024
Half of U.S. states have passed the CROWN Act to ban hair discrimination
Black and brown people face racial discrimination based on their hair texture at work, school, and beyond, but a growing number of states are passing legislation to protect against hair discrimination. July 3 marks five years since the signing of the inaugural state CROWN (“Creating a Respectful and Open World for Natural Hair”) Act. Now, 25 states in total have passed the CROWN Act, with Vermont becoming the latest state to enact the legislation in April. Meanwhile Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed an executive order to protect against hair-based discrimination for state government workers and job applicants, which helps build momentum for legislation that would protect everyone. The map below illustrates which states have passed the CROWN Act (D.C. has protections against hair discrimination but not through the CROWN Act).
Examining the economic impact of language proficiency on AAPI populations
As our economy and nation become increasingly more diverse and multilingual, limited language access to public services and institutions poses a growing threat to limited English proficient (LEP) workers. Although federal law mandates that federal agencies—as well as state and local programs receiving federal funds—establish language access plans for their resources, many non-federally funded state and local programs lack this level of accountability. For LEP workers, this can create significant barriers to understanding and exercising their rights across a complicated web of social, political, and economic institutions.
Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) communities have particularly high rates of limited English proficiency, with Asian Americans—the only racial group that is predominantly foreign-born—having the greatest need for language assistance. Approximately 32% of Asian Americans are LEP or are categorized as speaking English “less than very well.” By comparison, 29% of the Latinx community and 12.2% of Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders are LEP, respectively.
The 24 million AAPI individuals residing in the United States reflect a multitude of complex and challenging histories that shape their diverse experiences in this country, including English language proficiency. Factors such as the promise of economic opportunities, the economic and political instability in their home countries, and the domestic devastation from imperial, colonial, and military expansion all contributed to reasons for AAPI groups to migrate to the United States. Between the 19th and first half of the 20th century, Asian immigrants were subjected to a plethora of immigration restrictions and racial exclusion policies, revealing deep-seated prejudices and economic anxieties. Additionally, the various Pacific Island nations that were colonized, overthrown, and annexed by the United States and other colonial powers each developed mixed relationships with U.S. political and economic systems because of their different colonial and territorial statuses.
More recent Asian immigrants have entered the United States through various immigration channels, including Diversity Visas, H-1B employment visas, and Temporary Protected Status (TPS), while many others have arrived as refugees. Despite these pathways, still more than 1.7 million Asian Americans are undocumented immigrants, further compounding the marginalization experienced by those whose primary language is not English.
More states have strengthened child labor laws than weakened them in 2024: This year, state advocates were better equipped to organize in opposition to harmful bills
Click here for the latest version of our 50-state maps showing the status of legislation to roll back or strengthen child labor protections.
Early this year, we detailed the continued state legislative attacks on child labor protections as well as bills to strengthen child labor standards. Despite the recent rise of child labor violations and several high-profile child labor cases, the industry-backed effort to roll back child labor protections state by state continued, with state bills targeting youth work permits, work hours, and protections from hazardous work. At the same time, many state legislators have recognized the urgent need to strengthen standards and have instead proposed legislation to improve state child labor laws and their enforcement.
Now that most state legislative sessions have ended for the year, here is a look back at how these child labor proposals fared.
Jobs report indicates a strong labor market: Unemployment has been at or below 4% for 30 months running
Below, EPI economists offer their insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 272,000 jobs added in May.
From EPI senior economist, Elise Gould (@eliselgould):
Jobs report comes in strong this morning with payroll employment increasing by 272,000 in May. Some notable weakness in the household survey, but most measures tell a consistent story of a strong but not hot labor market. Here, we see consistently strong job growth continuing. pic.twitter.com/g9ilEKcxGK
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) June 7, 2024
The topline household survey numbers suggest some mild weakness though it's important to remember that the payroll survey is the gold standard.
I'm not concerned by the mild uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.0%, which has remained at or below 4.0% for 30 months in a row. pic.twitter.com/Z7erPObbYm
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) June 7, 2024
Again, a more volatile series, the Black unemployment rate ticked up to 6.1% in May.
Getting to full employment is particularly important for historically disadvantaged groups (e.g. young, noncollege, Black and Hispanic workers) who always experience a tougher labor market. pic.twitter.com/bs2jSJ6skh
— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) June 7, 2024
From EPI president, Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz):
This labor market just keeps cranking out huge numbers of jobs. We’ve added almost a million jobs in the last 4 months alone, and the unemployment rate has been at 4% or less for TWO AND A HALF YEARS. It really is incredible.
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) June 7, 2024
What to watch on jobs day—revenge of the managers: Evidence of manager wage growth rising while typical workers’ wage growth slows
Over the last few months, there’s been much talk about the return to normal in the labor market. A normal rate of job openings, hires, and quits. Unemployment back to pre-pandemic levels for a sustained period and the stability of the prime-age employment-to-population ratio at an even slightly higher rate than pre-pandemic. Will a return to “normal” also mean wages for the vast majority rise slower and that those with more power exert their leverage through faster wage gains? Recent evidence shows a worrying trend emerge: Wage growth for production/nonsupervisory workers has slowed while manager wage growth has mildly accelerated.
Over much of the current economic recovery, lower-wage workers experienced faster wage growth than other groups. They lost their jobs in greater numbers during the pandemic, but a policy response that matched the scale of the problem translated into a tremendous bounceback in jobs. It also meant that workers who lost their jobs weren’t as desperate to take the first one when those jobs returned. Employers had to scramble to attract and retain workers, leading to faster wage growth for those lower-wage workers with historically less bargaining power.
A similar—though more muted—phenomenon happened for production/nonsupervisory workers (roughly the bottom 82% of the wage distribution). Hourly wages for production/nonsupervisory workers started growing faster than overall private-sector wages in mid-2021, as shown in Figure A below. By March 2022, year-over-year hourly wages grew 7.0% for production/nonsupervisory workers, compared with 5.9% overall. Over the last two years, nominal wage growth for both groups of workers has decelerated, but the deceleration is more pronounced among production/nonsupervisory workers. The latest April 2024 data show that production/nonsupervisory workers are still experiencing slightly faster year-over-year wage growth than the overall private sector, but that’s likely to reverse soon given recent trends.
Higher wage growth for production/nonsupervisory workers wanes in recent months: Year-over-year change in private-sector nominal average hourly earnings, 2007–2024
| date | Production/nonsupervisory workers | All private-sector employees |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-2019 | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Feb-2019 | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| Mar-2019 | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| Apr-2019 | 3.5% | 3.2% |
| May-2019 | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| Jun-2019 | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Jul-2019 | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| Aug-2019 | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| Sep-2019 | 3.6% | 3.1% |
| Oct-2019 | 3.7% | 3.1% |
| Nov-2019 | 3.7% | 3.3% |
| Dec-2019 | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| Jan-2020 | 3.3% | 3.1% |
| Feb-2020 | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| Mar-2020 | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| Apr-2020 | 7.8% | 8.0% |
| May-2020 | 6.9% | 6.7% |
| Jun-2020 | 5.6% | 5.1% |
| Jul-2020 | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Aug-2020 | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| Sep-2020 | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Oct-2020 | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Nov-2020 | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| Dec-2020 | 5.6% | 5.4% |
| Jan-2021 | 5.3% | 5.2% |
| Feb-2021 | 5.2% | 5.3% |
| Mar-2021 | 4.9% | 4.5% |
| Apr-2021 | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| May-2021 | 2.8% | 2.3% |
| Jun-2021 | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| Jul-2021 | 5.1% | 4.3% |
| Aug-2021 | 5.2% | 4.4% |
| Sep-2021 | 6.0% | 4.9% |
| Oct-2021 | 6.5% | 5.5% |
| Nov-2021 | 6.6% | 5.4% |
| Dec-2021 | 6.4% | 5.0% |
| Jan-2022 | 6.9% | 5.7% |
| Feb-2022 | 6.8% | 5.3% |
| Mar-2022 | 7.0% | 5.9% |
| Apr-2022 | 6.9% | 5.8% |
| May-2022 | 6.7% | 5.6% |
| Jun-2022 | 6.7% | 5.4% |
| Jul-2022 | 6.5% | 5.5% |
| Aug-2022 | 6.2% | 5.4% |
| Sep-2022 | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| Oct-2022 | 5.8% | 5.0% |
| Nov-2022 | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| Dec-2022 | 5.5% | 4.9% |
| Jan-2023 | 5.2% | 4.6% |
| Feb-2023 | 5.4% | 4.7% |
| Mar-2023 | 5.4% | 4.6% |
| Apr-2023 | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| May-2023 | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| Jun-2023 | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| Jul-2023 | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| Aug-2023 | 4.8% | 4.5% |
| Sep-2023 | 4.7% | 4.5% |
| Oct-2023 | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| Nov-2023 | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| Dec-2023 | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Jan-2024 | 4.7% | 4.4% |
| Feb-2024 | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Mar-2024 | 4.2% | 4.1% |
| Apr-2024 | 4.0% | 3.9% |
Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics public data series.
Further, we can impute average hourly wages for managers using their shares of the overall private-sector workforce and the wages for overall private and production/nonsupervisory workers. When we do that, we see a mild acceleration in managerial wage growth over the last few months, though the series is notably volatile (see Figure B). This wage differential between typical workers and managers will be important to watch in Friday’s jobs report as well as future months. While the return to normal may be welcome in other metrics, it would not be welcome to see managerial pay growth exceeding growth for non-managers such that rising inequality rears its ugly head again.
Manager wage growth rises as wage growth for production/nonsupervisory workers slows in recent months: Year-over-year change in private-sector nominal average hourly earnings, 2007–2024
| date | Production/nonsupervisory workers | Managers |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-2019 | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| Feb-2019 | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| Mar-2019 | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Apr-2019 | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| May-2019 | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| Jun-2019 | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| Jul-2019 | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| Aug-2019 | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Sep-2019 | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Oct-2019 | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Nov-2019 | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Dec-2019 | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| Jan-2020 | 3.3% | 2.2% |
| Feb-2020 | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Mar-2020 | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| Apr-2020 | 7.8% | 3.2% |
| May-2020 | 6.9% | 1.5% |
| Jun-2020 | 5.6% | 0.5% |
| Jul-2020 | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Aug-2020 | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Sep-2020 | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Oct-2020 | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Nov-2020 | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Dec-2020 | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Jan-2021 | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| Feb-2021 | 5.2% | 3.3% |
| Mar-2021 | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| Apr-2021 | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| May-2021 | 2.8% | 3.3% |
| Jun-2021 | 4.1% | 4.6% |
| Jul-2021 | 5.1% | 3.0% |
| Aug-2021 | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Sep-2021 | 6.0% | 2.7% |
| Oct-2021 | 6.5% | 3.3% |
| Nov-2021 | 6.6% | 2.8% |
| Dec-2021 | 6.4% | 2.2% |
| Jan-2022 | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| Feb-2022 | 6.8% | 2.2% |
| Mar-2022 | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| Apr-2022 | 6.9% | 3.6% |
| May-2022 | 6.7% | 3.4% |
| Jun-2022 | 6.7% | 2.9% |
| Jul-2022 | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Aug-2022 | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Sep-2022 | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Oct-2022 | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| Nov-2022 | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| Dec-2022 | 5.5% | 3.2% |
| Jan-2023 | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Feb-2023 | 5.4% | 2.8% |
| Mar-2023 | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| Apr-2023 | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| May-2023 | 5.1% | 3.0% |
| Jun-2023 | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| Jul-2023 | 5.0% | 3.8% |
| Aug-2023 | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| Sep-2023 | 4.7% | 3.8% |
| Oct-2023 | 4.6% | 3.3% |
| Nov-2023 | 4.6% | 3.4% |
| Dec-2023 | 4.5% | 3.5% |
| Jan-2024 | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| Feb-2024 | 4.5% | 3.7% |
| Mar-2024 | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| Apr-2024 | 4.0% | 3.8% |
Note: Manager wages are constructed using their shares of the overall private-sector workforce and the wages for overall private-sector and production/nonsupervisory workers.
Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics public data series.
Nursing home owners are pushing Congress to block a new minimum staffing rule
Opposition to a new nursing home staffing standard has come to a boil with owners seeking to overturn the rule via a Congressional Review Act resolution, a “salted earth” strategy that would prevent the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services from ever issuing an amended rule. Given the life-saving implications of implementing a minimum staffing rule—which would require nursing homes to provide a minimum of 3.48 hours of care per resident—here’s a summary of comments EPI submitted in support of the rule, pushing back against unfounded industry claims of a worker shortage that would prevent nursing homes from meeting the new standard.
The nursing home industry has attempted to equate a staffing decline with a worker shortage. But this decline mirrored a decline in occupancy, and, if anything, suggests that there’s a pool of sidelined workers who could be lured back if pay and working conditions improved. This is true in both urban and rural areas.
The industry trade organization issued a report that described the 13.3% decline in nursing home jobs during the pandemic as a “workforce shortage” causing “wage increase pressures and reliance on contracted or agency nursing.” But this was a decline in jobs, not in available workers, as 168,579 residents died and would-be residents opted for alternative care arrangements due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 in facilities. It’s misleading to characterize reduced demand as a workforce shortage when staffing ratios actually improved somewhat during this period.