The pro-labor Economic Policy Institute contends that from 2001 to 2013, trade with China resulted in the loss of 3.2 million American jobs, 2.4 million of them in manufacturing, particularly in information technology and electronics. Academic research has found similar, though not quite as high, numbers of job losses, with ranges from 2.0 to 2.4 million (using the years 1999 to 2011).
Josh Bivens, the research and policy director of the Economic Policy Institute, put his finger on the problem for unions that expanding trade between China and the United States poses. While acknowledging some of the benefits of free trade, Bivens points out the danger of the global expansion of competition: Reducing trade barriers allows each to specialize in what they do more efficiently, and this specialization generally leads to national-level gains for both countries — that is, increased efficiency, worldwide production and total consumption. This is essentially chapter one in trade textbooks. However, a later chapter in the textbook points out that, when the United States exports financial services and aircraft while importing apparel and electronics, it is implicitly exchanging the services of capital for labor. This exchange bids up capital’s price — profits and high-end salaries — and bids down wages for the broad working and middle class, leading to rising inequality and wage pressure for many Americans.
According to Bivens, the downside is immense: Even if trade flows begin to balance and there is less job loss in the future, the integration of the U.S. economy with those of its low-wage trading partners will pull down wages for many American workers, and will contribute to the ever rising inequality of incomes in the U.S. economy.
The employment declines resulting from China trade have been analyzed in several papers by David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson, economists at M.I.T., the University of Zurich, and the University of California, San Diego, respectively; a National Bureau of Economic Research paper, “The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment,” by Justin R. Pierce of the Federal Reserve Board and Peter K. Schott of the Yale School of Management; and by Robert E. Scott, the director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy at the Economic Policy Institute, who worked with Will Kimball, a research assistant.