“There are many people who lost their jobs early on in the recession who’ve been unemployed ever since,” according to Heidi Shierholz, director of policy at the Economic Policy Institute and former chief economist at the Department of Labor during the Obama administration.
The increase in yearlong unemployment comes as the U.S. added 850,000 jobs in June, the most since August 2020.
But the jump makes sense given the contours of the Covid labor market, Shierholz said.
Layoffs, which began en masse in March and April 2020, were still about 20% higher than pre-pandemic levels over the following two months, she said.
(Layoffs are a different metric than net jobs gained or lost, and are reported separately from the monthly jobs figures.)
A jump in 52-week unemployment therefore reflects the elevated layoffs a year ago. The numbers will likely soon decline, since layoffs had normalized by July, she said.
“As the overall unemployment rate comes down, I expect the long-term unemployment rate will come down,” according to Shierholz.
Those out of work for an extended duration are likely among the hardest-hit industries, like leisure and hospitality, Shierholz said.