Appendix Table A1

Economic impact of the fiscal obstacle course relative to current law, 2013

Fiscal obstacles Budgetary cost
(billions)		 Multiplier Economic impact
(billions)		 Economic impact (% GDP) Employment impact
(thousands)
Ad hoc fiscal support following ARRA
Continue the payroll tax cut $115 1.25 $144 0.9% 1,090
Continue Emergency Unemployment Compensation program 39 1.52 59 0.4 448
Continue ARRA expansion of refundable credits 10 1.19 12 0.1 92
Subtotal 165 1.31 216 1.4 1,631
Budget Control Act
Deactivate sequestration $78 1.40 $110 0.7% 829
Undo phase-one discretionary spending caps 50 1.40 70 0.4 529
Subtotal 128 1.40 180 1.1 1,357
Bush-era tax cuts
Continue upper-income Bush-era tax cuts $52 0.26 $14 0.1% 102
Continue middle-income Bush-era tax cuts 84 0.35 29 0.2 223
Continue lower-income Bush-era tax cuts and credits* 55 0.69 38 0.2 288
Continue estate and gift tax cuts** 12 0.00 0 0.0 0
Subtotal 202 0.40 81 0.5 613
Other expiring (current policy) provisions
Continue the AMT patch $114 0.53 $60 0.4% 455
Continue the business tax extenders 109 0.27 29 0.2 222
Continue the Medicare “doc fix” 14 1.01 14 0.1 106
Subtotal 237 0.44 104 0.7 784
Fiscal obstacle course total $732 0.79 $581 3.7% 4,385

* Includes the 10% tax bracket and modifications to the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit
** Estate tax cuts as modified by the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010

Source: Bivens and Fieldhouse (2012a)

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