Although recent headlines claim that immigration is historically high or even “unprecedented,” new U.S. Census Bureau data show that immigration flows were relatively high but not unprecedented between 2022 and 2023, and were below the historical peaks in the late 1990s. These flows of new immigrants will benefit both immigrants and U.S.-born workers, as shown by many examples of credible economic research—though these benefits could significantly expand and help more workers if immigration policies were reformed to ensure that immigrants are granted full rights as workers in the U.S. economy.

The most recent estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS) indicate that the number of immigrants residing in the United States grew by 3.6% between 2022 and 2023 (see Figure A). This is below the historical peaks of 5.5% annual growth in the immigrant population that the United States experienced between 1994 and 2000, according to Current Population Survey (CPS) data.1 More recent CPS data show that the 2022–2023 immigrant population growth rate was 3.7%, similar to ACS estimates.

Some recent debates focus on whether the CPS and perhaps the ACS may underestimate recent growth in immigration levels. After making an adjustment to account for this potential undercount, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated significantly higher immigration levels. But even after including this upward adjustment, the modified CBO/CPS population growth rate from 2022 to 2023 is still lower than the historical highs of the late 1990s.

The growth rates in Figure A also show that U.S.-born population growth has been declining. New ACS data suggest the U.S.-born population experienced zero population growth between 2022 and 2023, down from 0.9% annually in the 1990s. Although specific estimates of U.S.-born population growth rates vary across data sources and are complicated by potential survey undercounts, it is clear that without immigration, the United States would have seen very little population growth in recent years.

Because immigrant population growth rates have been well within recent U.S. historical trends, extensive research on immigration’s benefits to the U.S. economy remains relevant. Immigration has neutral to positive effects on the wages of U.S.-born workers, as evidenced by numerous rigorous studies. For example, a 2024 study by Caiumi and Peri found that immigration modestly raised the wages of U.S.-born workers, with the largest positive effects for those with lower education levels. Further, a review by Peri of 27 published studies found that the average effect of immigration on the wages of U.S.-born workers is essentially zero.

It’s also important to recall that the relatively high recent immigration rates have in no way caused a widespread disruption in the U.S. labor market and, in fact, have coincided with exceptionally strong employment rates and low-wage workers experiencing the fastest wage growth in a generation.

We must acknowledge, however, that the current U.S. immigration policy regime squanders too many potential benefits by depriving many immigrants—both recent arrivals and long-term residents—of full and equal rights as workers. This occurs when foreign-born workers either lack an immigration status or only have a temporary status, which has the effect of granting employers a massive amount of power over them. Combined with inadequate resources for labor standards enforcement that can protect all workers and hold employers accountable, this makes immigrant workers’ lives more precarious and can harm the people they work side-by-side with.

A smarter set of policies could benefit the nation and workers even more. Such policies include a quick and broad path to citizenship for the currently unauthorized immigrant population, which would provide a near-instant wage boost for all workers. This requires Congress to act, but in the meantime, the executive branch can and should use existing authority to expand temporary immigration and workplace protections for this population via work permits—through clearly lawful tools like Temporary Protected Status, humanitarian parole, and deferred action.

Another key policy priority is reforming work visa programs to allow migrant workers the freedom to change jobs. Visa programs also need to provide workers with an opportunity to transition quickly to a green card. Finally, resources should be appropriated for labor standards enforcement agencies that can protect workers’ rights without taking immigration status into account.

Nevertheless, even in the face of our unjust policy regime, recent data and economic research suggest current immigration flows are not unprecedented and will continue to deliver benefits to the U.S. economy.

Note

1. The CPS has a smaller sample size than the ACS, and in contrast to the ACS, the CPS has data on the foreign-born population going back as far as 1994.