A new Economic Policy Institute analysis of U.S. metro areas with the largest Black populations signals what’s at stake under Trump’s anti-equity agenda that most recently includes the federal takeover of Washington D.C. 

Ten metro areas—New York, Atlanta, Washington D.C., Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia, Miami, Los Angeles, and Detroit—are home to 38.6% of the Black labor force. The analysis examines Black unemployment rates, median household income, the size of the federal workforce, and federal grant dollars awarded to these places in 2023, demonstrating huge stakes associated with federal budget and job cuts, anti-equity backlash, and growing concerns of a self-inflicted recession. 

Mass firings of federal employees and budget cuts will have harmful consequences for Black Americans across class lines. Given the large share of the state’s federal workers in metro Atlanta (51% of GA total), D.C., and New York City, Trump’s attack on the public sector threatens what has historically been a pathway to better, more equitable jobs for Black Americans—thanks to robust anti-discrimination policies and public-sector collective bargaining. 

Federal grant funds also provide critical support to under-resourced inner-city communities. Many of those federal investments in low-income and working-class communities were cut in the Republican-led budget reconciliation bill. 

Trump’s policy path also leads straight to recession—jeopardizing Black workers’ labor market gains in recent years, including historically low unemployment and faster wage growth. In 2023, metro area Black unemployment was lower in Atlanta, D.C., Dallas, Miami, and Philadelphia than the Black national average. Black median household income in 2023 exceeded the national Black median household income of $53,927 in all but two (Chicago and Detroit) of the metros observed. It was highest in the D.C. ($89,912) and Atlanta ($70,969) metro areas. 

“Trump’s anti-equity, anti-worker agenda has decimated the federal workforce, made steep cuts to programs like Medicaid that benefit low-income families, and weaponized civil rights enforcement to discourage diversity, equity, and inclusion,” said Valerie Wilson, director of EPI’s Program on Race, Ethnicity, and the Economy. “If the Trump administration and Congress continue along the current path, there is a very real risk of a recession in the coming months—and a lot is at stake for Black Americans who typically suffer higher rates of unemployment and take longer to recover lost jobs and income from a downturn.”