These projections incorporate the effects of the large rise in unemployment. The Economic Policy Institute, for example, projects a loss of 20 million jobs by the summer. That would translate to an unemployment rate of 15.6 percent by summer, up from 3.5 percent in February and 4.4 percent in March. The Congressional Budget Office projects an unemployment rate of 12 percent by the third quarter (July to September) that stays high into 2022. Goldman Sachs also projects an unemployment peak of 15 percent by the third quarter (July to September) but warns that there will likely also be many additional people who want a job but are not actively looking because of the lack of available jobs (they must be actively looking to be officially classified as unemployed). In the 2001 recession, the unemployment rate rose only 1.8 points, to 5.8 percent; in the Great Recession it hit 9.8 percent, a rise of 4.8 points.
[20] David Cooper and Julia Wolfe, “Nearly 20 million workers will likely be laid off or furloughed by July,” Economic Policy Institute, April 1, 2020, https://www.epi.org/blog/nearly-20-million-jobs-lost-by-july-due-to-the-coronavirus/.
[35] Sylvia A. Allegretto and Lawrence Mishel, “The teacher pay gap is wider than ever: Teachers’ pay continues to fall further behind pay of comparable workers,” Economic Policy Institute, August 9, 2016, https://www.epi.org/files/pdf/110964.pdf.
[37] Emma García and Elaine Weiss, “The teacher shortage is real, large and growing, and worse than we thought,” Economic Policy Institute, March 26, 2019, https://www.epi.org/files/pdf/163651.pdf.