Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), says that while college graduates of recent years were seeing an improvement in the job market, their economic outlook had never fully recovered to a level that previous generations enjoyed.
“That benchmark of getting back to 2007 was actually a low bar for where we wanted to get back to,” Gould said. “I think we’re still a ways away from trying to get back to the kind of economy we had in 2000, and that should be the target in this recovery.”
Further compounding the current grim economic forecast is the magnitude in which the economy has been reshaped by the viral outbreak. Unlike in 2008, many businesses have now been forced to unexpectedly close and halt operations.
“Presumably, when we get on the other side of this, a lot of those places will open. The ones that did not go out of business will probably reopen relatively quickly,” Gould said.
However, Gould said she believes there will be many similar trends to the 2008 financial crisis, such as elevated unemployment rates and an increase in underemployment, especially as businesses begin to reopen their doors.
“[Recent graduates] are going to be scrambling to get jobs so they can start paying off their student loans. They may not wait for a job that gets them on the career trajectory that they hoped for,” Gould said. “Or they may be in a little bit of a waiting pattern to get their foothold in their career while they work in other jobs.”
Student loan deferment — such as what is proposed in Harder and Romney’s bills — is helpful, according to Gould. But she said it is “premature” to set an end date on the deferment period, since it is unclear as to how long this economic downturn will last.
“We certainly don’t want to set up those new grads to fail and default on those loans. That doesn’t help anybody,” Gould said. “So we want to provide an adequate safety net to make sure that those new grads not only can try to get started on their careers, but can get on track to be able to pay back those loans.”