“What we’re seeing across the country is an immense amount of frustration,” said Julia Wolfe, a state economic analyst at the DC-based Economic Policy Institute, whose research shows the unemployment backlog is not only putting individuals’ in financial jeopardy but could slow the economic recovery.
“If throughout this entire time people are losing their income, they’re not going to be able to spend, and then we’re going to see a decrease in demand [for goods]. And so not only is it bad for individuals, but really for the entire economy,” warned Wolfe.
Boston 25 News
April 24, 2020
“For comparison, in the period before the coronavirus hit, just over a million workers would apply for UI in a typical five-week span, and in the worst five-week stretch of the Great Recession, it was less than four million,” Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute says.
The Fiscal Times
April 24, 2020
Women make up a majority of workers in some industries that have been hit hardest, such as health care, where many jobs outside hospitals have been lost, and hotels and restaurants. Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the progressive Economic Policy Institute, calculates that 56% of the layoffs have involved women.
Associated Press
April 24, 2020
5. Economic Policy Institute: The unemployment rate “will likely not reflect all coronavirus-related layoffs”
“All else equal, job losses of this magnitude would translate into an unemployment rate of 18.3%,” Heidi Shierholz, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, wrote in a note Thursday.
“However, the official unemployment rate, when it is released, will likely not reflect all coronavirus-related layoffs,” she said, adding this is because jobless workers are counted only as unemployed if they are actively seeking work.
She continued: “The UI claims of the last five weeks, while extraordinary, don’t even include most people who aren’t eligible for regular UI but are nevertheless out of work due to the virus—people like gig workers or independent contractors, and many others.”
Business Insider
April 24, 2020
In 1994, public school teachers earned about 1.8% less per week than workers in other professions that required a college degree.
Source: TIME, The Economic Policy Institute
Business Insider
April 24, 2020
Even after restrictions begin to lift, the economic crisis will probably be unlike anything the U.S. has seen in several decades. On April 14th, the International Monetary Fund published a report predicting that the current period will be the beginning of the “worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse than the Global Financial Crisis.” Heidi Shierholz, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, said that, while the U.S. government had taken some steps toward alleviating the damage, it hasn’t done nearly enough. She compared the response of American leaders to that of leaders in Denmark, who swiftly implemented a program to replace workers’ lost wages so that they could remain connected to their employers and could be summoned back again easily once it was deemed safe; the U.S. version, an emergency loan fund called the Paycheck Protection Program, has, so far, been riddled with implementation problems and has left many businesses that are in serious need without access to funds. “They’re getting what they need to survive the lockdown,” Shierholz said, referring to workers in Denmark. “So workers aren’t facing the trauma of job loss, which research shows can be very long-lasting, and can have effects on kids.” She went on, “We didn’t do what Denmark did. We chose not to. So we are going to be in a worse position, and we are not going to have as quick of a recovery.”
The New Yorker
April 24, 2020
“Further, job losses are ongoing. Based on [gross domestic product] forecasts, we project that the net decline in employment could exceed 30 million by the end of June,” Heidi Shierholz, senior economist and director of policy at the Economic Policy Institute, wrote in a Thursday morning blog post.
Newsweek
April 24, 2020
In a series of tweets Thursday and a blog post for the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), the think tank’s senior economist and director of policy Heidi Shierholz explained the five recent weeks of DOL figures (pdf), shared employment projections for the next year, and—like Levitz—pressured members of Congress to step up the federal response.
EPI projects that by the end of June, net decline in employment could surpass 30 million, and “even under the best-case scenario” the nation’s unemployment rate could remain as high as 8% this time next year.
The CARES Act and a Senate-approved coronavirus bill expected to pass the House Thursday “both had some important provisions, but they are no match for the damage the economy is facing,” wrote Shierholz. “Federal policymakers need to do more.”
“The next relief and recovery package should provide $500 billion in aid to state and local governments, extend unemployment insurance benefits, provide better protections for workers and jobs, and include funding to safeguard our democracy,” she added. “And importantly, federal government relief should be tied to actual economic conditions (and not solely the unemployment rate), so that these provisions do not expire too early, when the economy and the people in it still need them.”
Common Dreams
April 24, 2020
An optimistic scenario would have the economy bouncing back in the second half of the year, which is possible if businesses begin to reopen and economic activity picks up, said Heidi Shierholz, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute. But even then, she said the unemployment rate nationally would probably remain around 8 percent a year from now, and closer to 10 percent by the election.
“The damage that has been done to the economy is just really, really dramatic,” she said. “It’s going to take some time to get back.”
Politico
April 24, 2020