But the calculator also showed that a lower minimum wage would not lift as many Americans out of poverty. An $11 or $12 wage increase would only reduce poverty by as many as 120,000 and 320,000 people, respectively.
“Any of these lower targets would leave many more families in poverty and dramatically reduce the number of people who would get a pay increase,” said Ben Zipperer, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
Zipperer pointed to a CBO analysis from 2019 that found a $12 minimum wage by 2025 would result in 11 million workers having higher earnings and 0.4 million fewer people in poverty. A $10 wage hike would mean 3.5 million people with higher earnings but essentially a zero reduction in poverty.
“An $11 minimum wage today would represent essentially no improvement in living standards for the lowest-wage workers over the past 50 years,” Zipperer said. “This is completely unjustified given that the economy’s productivity has doubled over that time period. In fact, had we increased the minimum wage in line with productivity growth over that period, it would be over $20 today.”