Presentation: ‘The People’s Budget’

The People’s Budget

Prosperity not Austerity; Invest in America

March 23, 2016

 

Josh Bivens

Research and Policy Director

Economic Policy Institute

Important insights potentially lost in the Sanders/Friedman pile-on:

  • Economy still not fully recovered from GR, let alone at genuine full employment

  • Recovery not guaranteed

  • Risks of undershooting economic support much worse than overshooting

  • Hence, still very desirable to have fiscal policy be expansionary

GDP Recovery Not Complete

Sharp drop in demand caused recession and demand has yet to recover: Actual and potential gross domestic product (GDP), 2001–2015

Date Potential GDP Actual GDP
2001Q1 12589.7 12643.3
2001Q2 12706.0 12710.3
2001Q3 12821.9 12670.1
2001Q4 12936.2 12705.3
2002Q1 13044.8 12822.3
2002Q2 13151.1 12893.0
2002Q3 13254.8 12955.8
2002Q4 13355.7 12964.0
2003Q1 13454.0 13031.2
2003Q2 13548.7 13152.1
2003Q3 13640.7 13372.4
2003Q4 13730.3 13528.7
2004Q1 13817.2 13606.5
2004Q2 13901.3 13706.2
2004Q3 13984.1 13830.8
2004Q4 14066.4 13950.4
2005Q1 14149.5 14099.1
2005Q2 14234.0 14172.7
2005Q3 14319.0 14291.8
2005Q4 14404.6 14373.4
2006Q1 14491.8 14546.1
2006Q2 14580.7 14589.6
2006Q3 14669.2 14602.6
2006Q4 14756.5 14716.9
2007Q1 14840.9 14726.0
2007Q2 14922.2 14838.7
2007Q3 15000.7 14938.5
2007Q4 15075.9 14991.8
2008Q1 15146.4 14889.5
2008Q2 15214.8 14963.4
2008Q3 15279.7 14891.6
2008Q4 15340.8 14577.0
2009Q1 15398.6 14375.0
2009Q2 15449.3 14355.6
2009Q3 15496.2 14402.5
2009Q4 15539.8 14541.9
2010Q1 15579.5 14604.8
2010Q2 15618.0 14745.9
2010Q3 15655.5 14845.5
2010Q4 15692.9 14939.0
2011Q1 15733.5 14881.3
2011Q2 15772.6 14989.6
2011Q3 15812.7 15021.1
2011Q4 15854.5 15190.3
2012Q1 15897.9 15291.0
2012Q2 15946.0 15362.4
2012Q3 15997.3 15380.8
2012Q4 16051.8 15384.3
2013Q1 16111.6 15457.2
2013Q2 16174.8 15500.2
2013Q3 16239.7 15614.4
2013Q4 16305.6 15761.5
2014Q1 16369.9 15724.9
2014Q2 16433.5 15901.5
2014Q3 16496.9 16068.8
2014Q4 16560.0 16151.4
2015Q1 16622.4 16177.3
2015Q2 16684.3 16333.6
2015Q3 16746.4 16414.0
2015Q4 16809.3  16455.1
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Economic Policy Institute

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.

Source: Author’s analysis of data from BEA NIPA Table 1.1.6 and the Congressional Budget Office (on potential gross domestic product)

Labor market recovery not complete

Employment-to-population ratio of workers ages 25-54, 2006-2016

Employment-to-population ratio
Jan-2006 79.6
Feb-2006 79.7
Mar-2006 79.8
Apr-2006 79.6
May-2006 79.7
Jun-2006 79.8
Jul-2006 79.8
Aug-2006 79.8
Sep-2006 79.9
Oct-2006 80.1
Nov-2006 80.0
Dec-2006 80.1
Jan-2007 80.3
Feb-2007 80.1
Mar-2007 80.2
Apr-2007 80.0
May-2007 80.0
Jun-2007 79.9
Jul-2007 79.8
Aug-2007 79.8
Sep-2007 79.7
Oct-2007 79.6
Nov-2007 79.7
Dec-2007 79.7
Jan-2008 80.0
Feb-2008 79.9
Mar-2008 79.8
Apr-2008 79.6
May-2008 79.5
Jun-2008 79.4
Jul-2008 79.2
Aug-2008 78.8
Sep-2008 78.8
Oct-2008 78.4
Nov-2008 78.1
Dec-2008 77.6
Jan-2009 77.0
Feb-2009 76.7
Mar-2009 76.2
Apr-2009 76.2
May-2009 75.9
Jun-2009 75.9
Jul-2009 75.8
Aug-2009 75.6
Sep-2009 75.1
Oct-2009 75.0
Nov-2009 75.2
Dec-2009 74.8
Jan-2010 75.1
Feb-2010 75.1
Mar-2010 75.1
Apr-2010 75.4
May-2010 75.1
Jun-2010 75.2
Jul-2010 75.1
Aug-2010 75.0
Sep-2010 75.1
Oct-2010 75.0
Nov-2010 74.8
Dec-2010 75.0
Jan-2011 75.2
Feb-2011 75.1
Mar-2011 75.3
Apr-2011 75.1
May-2011 75.2
Jun-2011 75.0
Jul-2011 75.0
Aug-2011 75.1
Sep-2011 74.9
Oct-2011 74.9
Nov-2011 75.3
Dec-2011 75.4
Jan-2012 75.5
Feb-2012 75.6
Mar-2012 75.7
Apr-2012 75.7
May-2012 75.7
Jun-2012 75.6
Jul-2012 75.6
Aug-2012 75.7
Sep-2012 75.9
Oct-2012 76.1
Nov-2012 75.8
Dec-2012 75.9
Jan-2013 75.6
Feb-2013 75.8
Mar-2013 75.9
Apr-2013 75.9
May-2013 76.0
Jun-2013 75.9
Jul-2013 76.0
Aug-2013 75.9
Sep-2013 76.0
Oct-2013 75.6
Nov-2013 76.0
Dec-2013 76.1
Jan-2014 76.5
Feb-2014 76.5
Mar-2014 76.6
Apr-2014 76.5
May-2014 76.4
Jun-2014 76.8
Jul-2014 76.7
Aug-2014 76.8
Sep-2014 76.8
Oct-2014 76.9
Nov-2014 76.9
Dec-2014 77.1
Jan-2015 77.2
Feb-2015 77.3
Mar-2015 77.2
Apr-2015 77.2
May-2015 77.2
Jun-2015 77.2
Jul-2015 77.1
Aug-2015 77.2
Sep-2015 77.3
Oct-2015 77.2
Nov-2015 77.4
Dec-2015 77.4
Jan-2016 77.7
Feb-2016 77.8
Mar-2016 78.0
ChartData Download data

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Economic Policy Institute

Source: EPI analysis of  Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey public data

We’re not recovered yet because of fiscal austerity

Fiscal austerity explains the slow recovery: Change in per capita government spending over past six business cycles

 Quarters before and after recession’s trough (trough = 0) 1975q1 1980q3 1982q4 1991q1 2001q4 2009q2
-6 90.83817
-5 94.14608 96.46779 91.33168
-4 95.58078 96.72548 97.80345
-3 96.75442 96.51523 96.35624 94.05089
-2 97.19567 99.12375 97.21731 98.09825 98.14218 94.4813
-1 97.81814 98.81721 98.26435 98.92533 97.98324 96.68474
0 100 100 100 100 100 100
1 101.4549 99.26806 100.3829 100.7468 101.5275 99.84022
2 102.2914 99.73443 100.9558 100.4456 102.3723 99.50632
3 102.7309 99.32341 101.005 100.9653 102.8023 100.7222
4 103.1591 99.98405  99.79553 102.3054 103.3013 101.0192
5 101.5995 100.4771 102.4831 103.1351 101.1242
6 101.6376 101.715 102.7714 104.3665 100.3429
7 101.3162 102.037 102.2554 104.5556 98.8815
8 101.6571 103.485 101.9195 104.6451 98.15728
9 101.7618 104.602 101.724 105.4192 97.23711
10 101.9609 106.0107 102.011 105.8382 96.8626
11 101.5335 107.6073 101.868 105.804 95.92456
12 101.3926 107.6288 101.2959 105.4445 95.78462
13 102.7633 108.7749 101.4328 106.1767 95.40432
14 103.7289 110.4932 102.1325 106.3521 94.83228
15 103.9792 112.3029 101.9209 106.5289 94.20283
16 103.0743 111.6476 102.6275 106.0185 93.88481
17 103.3799 112.0741 102.8173 107.5423 93.60793
18 104.385 112.6221 102.3836 107.6773 93.04602
19 104.6642 112.3952 101.1486 107.8776 93.22673
20 105.8042  113.0807 101.9359 108.2144 93.61573
21 113.3476 103.2437 109.1187 94.26683
22 113.3408 102.7047 109.0787 94.17814
23 113.108 102.7598 109.5846 95.13453
24 114.405 103.1194 109.8789 95.48556
25 114.9973 103.4402 95.77813
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Note: For total government spending, we deflated government consumption and investment expenditures with the NIPA price deflator. Government transfer payments were deflated with the price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. This figure includes state and local government spending. We agree that it is appropriate to include this spending in a measure of the federal government's failure to combat austerity in the current recovery. Only the federal government has the significant ability to run deficits during recessions, and historically many federal efforts to combat recessions and spur recovery have involved giving aid to state and local governments to spend.

Source: Author’s analysis of data from Tables 1.1.4, 3.1, and 3.9.4 from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Worse, “recovery” driven in large part by reductions in potential output, not gains to actual output

Recovery has been defined downward: Actual GDP and estimates of potential GDP in various years, 2008–2015

Date 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Actual
2006Q2 0 0 0 0 0 0
2006Q3 0.6849 0.6269 0.5938 0.5998 0.6070 0.0891
2006Q4 1.3753 1.2631 1.1943 1.2065 1.2057 0.8725
2007Q1 2.0700 1.9094 1.8034 1.8132 1.7846 0.9349
2007Q2 2.7704 2.5580 2.4221 2.4405 2.3421 1.7074
2007Q3 3.4748 3.2105 3.0398 3.0610 2.8805 2.3914
2007Q4 4.1828 3.8630 3.6518 3.6815 3.3963 2.7568
2008Q1 4.8941 4.5101 4.2483 4.2813 3.8798 2.0556
2008Q2 5.6065 5.1579 4.8400 4.8604 4.3489 2.5621
2008Q3 6.3197 5.7926 5.4135 5.4119 4.7940 2.0700
2008Q4 7.0333 6.4056 5.9632 5.9428 5.2131 -0.0864
2009Q1 7.7461 6.9930 6.4772 6.4254 5.6095 -1.4709
2009Q2 8.4594 7.5393 6.9347 6.8597 5.9572 -1.6039
2009Q3 9.1729 8.0492 7.3660 7.2665 6.2788 -1.2824
2009Q4 9.8871 8.5250 7.7777 7.6525 6.5779 -0.3269
2010Q1 10.6028 8.9628 8.1682 8.0179 6.8502 0.1042
2010Q2 11.3185 9.3766 8.5612 8.3833 7.1142 1.0713
2010Q3 12.0366 9.7827 8.9579 8.7418 7.3714 1.7540
2010Q4 12.7582 10.1934 9.3654 9.1072 7.6279 2.3949
2011Q1 13.4843 10.6289 9.8152 9.5002 7.9063 1.9994
2011Q2 14.2172 11.0931 10.2809 9.9000 8.1745 2.7417
2011Q3 14.9568 11.5867 10.7598 10.3137 8.4495 2.9576
2011Q4 15.7028 12.1121 11.2544 10.7411 8.7362 4.1173
2012Q1 16.4566 12.6716 11.7467 11.1755 9.0339 4.8075
2012Q2 17.2158 13.2598 12.2398 11.6305 9.3637 5.2969
2012Q3 17.9789 13.8774 12.7412 12.0855 9.7156 5.4230
2012Q4 18.7447 14.5230 13.2533 12.5474 10.0894 5.4470
2013Q1 19.5107 15.1894 13.7783 13.0162 10.4995 5.9467
2013Q2 20.2771 15.8814 14.3187 13.4850 10.9329 6.2414
2013Q3 21.0435 16.5990 14.8759 13.9607 11.3781 7.0242
2013Q4 21.8094 17.3383 15.4519 14.4433 11.8300 8.0324
2014Q1 22.5747 18.1016 16.0534 14.9328 12.2710 7.7816
2014Q2 23.3391 18.8843 16.6756 15.4223 12.7072 8.9920
2014Q3 24.1030 19.6801 17.3180 15.9324 13.1420 10.1387
2014Q4 24.8665 20.4845 17.9801 16.4564 13.5748 10.7049
2015Q1 25.6302 21.2904 18.6614 17.0010 14.0028 10.8824
2015Q2 26.3940 22.0948 19.3634 17.5664 14.4273 11.9537
2015Q3 27.1591 22.8961 20.0843 18.1524 14.8532 12.5048
2015Q4 27.9257 23.6904 20.8233 18.7590 15.2846 12.7865
ChartData Download data

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Economic Policy Institute

Note: Shaded area denotes recession. Measures of potential output are from forecasts in successive editions of the CBO Budget and Economic Outlook from 2008 to 2016.

Source: Author’s analysis of data from BEA NIPA Table 1.1.6 and the Congressional Budget Office (on potential gross domestic product)

Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) Budget attacks this problem

Projected deficit as a share of GDP, FY2015–FY2026

Year Current Law President’s Budget CPC budget
2015 2.46% 2.46% 2.46%
2016 2.94% 3.33% 4.57%
2017 2.91% 2.61% 2.16%
2018 2.84% 2.26% 0.54%
2019 3.53% 2.63% 1.21%
2020 3.73% 2.46% 1.37%
2021 3.95% 2.44% 1.57%
2022 4.44% 2.81% 1.99%
2023 4.40% 2.76% 1.91%
2024 4.27% 2.55% 1.72%
2025 4.62% 2.79% 2.03%
2026 4.94% 2.85% 2.19%
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Note: For the president's budget, this figure uses CBO's projections of GDP. Data for 2015 represent actual spending.

Source: EPI Policy Center analysis of Congressional Budget Office, Citizens for Tax Justice, Joint Committee on Taxation, Office of Management and Budget, and Tax Policy Center data

Importantly, first-year stimulus followed up by long-run increase in investments, while progressive tax increases will not drag on recovery

  • Clinton-era rates on 250-400k
  • Steadily increasing top rate through $1 billion (Schakowsky bill)
  • Equalization of rates on capital v labor income
  • Ending “step-up basis”
  • Financial transactions tax
  • Ending deferral on foreign income for US corporations

Projected nondefense discretionary budget authority as a share of GDP, excluding supplemental spending, FY2015–FY2026

Year Historical average* (incl. supplemental) Historical average*  (excl. supplemental) Current law President’s budget CPC  budget
2015 3.53% 3.47% 2.76% 2.76% 2.76%
2016 3.53% 3.47% 2.80% 2.80% 2.81%
2017 3.53% 3.47% 2.69% 2.69% 3.11%
2018 3.53% 3.47% 2.56% 2.74% 3.25%
2019 3.53% 3.47% 2.53% 2.68% 3.34%
2020 3.53% 3.47% 2.50% 2.61% 3.45%
2021 3.53% 3.47% 2.46% 2.57% 3.52%
2022 3.53% 3.47% 2.42% 2.51% 3.53%
2023 3.53% 3.47% 2.38% 2.46% 3.53%
2024 3.53% 3.47% 2.34% 2.41% 3.53%
2025 3.53% 3.47% 2.31% 2.36% 3.53%
2026 3.53%  3.47% 2.27% 2.31%  3.53%
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* Historical average reflects the average nondefense discretionary budget authority as a share of GDP between FY1980 and FY2007 (the last year before the onset of the Great Recession).

Note: Supplemental spending includes war, disaster, emergency, and program integrity. For the president's budget, this figure uses CBO's projections of GDP and undoes reclassifications. Data for 2015 represent actual spending. Data for 2016 exclude Changes in Mandatory Programs.

Source: EPI Policy Center analysis of Congressional Budget Office and Office of Management and Budget data

Every year of demand-slack destroys some long-run growth potential

Slack in demand erodes potential output: Potential-output losses and the 2015 demand shortfall across countries

Country Potential-output loss Output gap in 2015
Ireland 4.82% 4.45%
Greece 4.11% 7.59%
Hungary 3.44% 0.69%
Czech Republic 2.70% 3.52%
Spain 2.64% 3.52%
Finland 2.05% 3.08%
Portugal 1.34% 4.98%
Italy 1.23% 3.74%
Poland 1.20% 0.16%
Netherlands 0.94% 4.09%
Denmark 0.90% 1.63%
Canada 0.82% -0.16%
United Kingdom 0.81% 0.32%
Belgium 0.71% 1.19%
Sweden 0.61% 0.76%
Japan 0.61% -0.89%
Austria 0.61% 2.64%
France 0.60% 3.08%
New Zealand 0.54% -1.22%
United States 0.34% 1.87%
Germany 0.27% -0.87%
Australia 0.22% 2.27%
Switzerland -0.23% 0.39%
ChartData Download data

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Note: Potential-output loss is defined as projected potential output growth in 2009 versus projected potential output growth in 2015. Output gap is defined as the difference between actual and potential output.

Source: Data provided in Ball (2015)

Hopefully, running the economy hot can claw back some of this lost potential 

Productivity growth is spurred by a tightening labor market: Average unemployment gap and subsequent productivity growth, 1951–2015

Date Unemployment gap Productivity growth
1951, Q4 -0.42917% 3.17255%
1952Q1 -0.56250% 3.41140%
1952Q2 -0.81333% 3.49372%
1952Q3 -1.11583% 3.37801%
1952Q4 -1.47667% 2.73171%
1953Q1 -1.79417% 2.15894%
1953Q2 -2.05333% 2.03680%
1953Q3 -2.22000% 2.02080%
1953Q4 -2.26917% 2.69427%
1954Q1 -2.13417% 2.86175%
1954Q2 -1.91417% 2.46236%
1954Q3 -1.68500% 2.20297%
1954Q4 -1.52083% 2.19284%
1955Q1 -1.38833% 1.64379%
1955Q2 -1.27250% 1.76805%
1955Q3 -1.19750% 2.33798%
1955Q4 -1.08167% 2.81747%
1956Q1 -0.97583% 3.10637%
1956Q2 -0.84583% 3.03886%
1956Q3 -0.73250% 3.24550%
1956Q4 -0.70250% 2.74865%
1957Q1 -0.80500% 3.25580%
1957Q2 -0.94917% 2.75066%
1957Q3 -1.10167% 2.54545%
1957Q4 -1.14583% 2.11530%
1958Q1 -1.01500% 2.50373%
1958Q2 -0.76667% 3.11168%
1958Q3 -0.50167% 2.87014%
1958Q4 -0.31917% 2.82393%
1959Q1 -0.17000% 2.77922%
1959Q2 -0.09583% 2.81406%
1959Q3 0.00250% 2.99912%
1959Q4 0.12417% 3.24117%
1960Q1 0.21750% 2.64909%
1960Q2 0.30167% 3.33994%
1960Q3 0.41000% 3.88209%
1960Q4 0.51750% 4.05891%
1961Q1 0.55000% 4.25507%
1961Q2 0.50750% 3.26810%
1961Q3 0.45667% 3.24489%
1961Q4 0.43083% 2.86891%
1962Q1 0.40667% 3.10772%
1962Q2 0.43333% 3.05422%
1962Q3 0.45167% 3.31142%
1962Q4 0.43833% 3.39846%
1963Q1 0.48417% 3.56183%
1963Q2 0.52167% 3.20499%
1963Q3 0.50917% 2.67545%
1963Q4 0.44667% 2.79133%
1964Q1 0.33333% 2.46860%
1964Q2 0.17667% 2.65227%
1964Q3 0.01917% 2.44264%
1964Q4 -0.09000% 2.65638%
1965Q1 -0.16000% 2.86331%
1965Q2 -0.24000% 3.05529%
1965Q3 -0.35500% 2.40899%
1965Q4 -0.48833% 2.01991%
1966Q1 -0.66417% 1.74749%
1966Q2 -0.84083% 1.87787%
1966Q3 -1.00083% 1.91449%
1966Q4 -1.17750% 1.66190%
1967Q1 -1.33667% 1.67751%
1967Q2 -1.46917% 1.76805%
1967Q3 -1.58417% 2.28255%
1967Q4 -1.68917% 2.00560%
1968Q1 -1.80083% 2.21691%
1968Q2 -1.91167% 2.02321%
1968Q3 -1.99500% 2.30628%
1968Q4 -2.06167% 2.20916%
1969Q1 -2.11000% 2.19909%
1969Q2 -2.15000% 2.83487%
1969Q3 -2.17333% 2.84838%
1969Q4 -2.18833% 3.23387%
1970Q1 -2.16333% 3.48546%
1970Q2 -2.08917% 3.24498%
1970Q3 -1.98250% 2.27807%
1970Q4 -1.83500% 2.66227%
1971Q1 -1.66333% 1.49554%
1971Q2 -1.47500% 1.62961%
1971Q3 -1.28000% 1.02126%
1971Q4 -1.07667% 1.29043%
1972Q1 -0.89167% 1.56769%
1972Q2 -0.71500% 1.35640%
1972Q3 -0.56500% 1.61038%
1972Q4 -0.44083% 1.31528%
1973Q1 -0.39250% 1.22358%
1973Q2 -0.40333% 1.34558%
1973Q3 -0.45667% 1.74207%
1973Q4 -0.56000% 1.54529%
1974Q1 -0.64667% 2.09166%
1974Q2 -0.72500% 1.86362%
1974Q3 -0.77667% 2.45764%
1974Q4 -0.74333% 1.97193%
1975Q1 -0.55750% 1.59490%
1975Q2 -0.30333% 1.49903%
1975Q3 -0.07167% 1.33546%
1975Q4 0.16917% 1.37473%
1976Q1 0.38667% 1.00244%
1976Q2 0.60500% 0.89395%
1976Q3 0.84167% 0.65674%
1976Q4 1.08667% 0.63807%
1977Q1 1.28167% 0.64032%
1977Q2 1.43500% 0.37125%
1977Q3 1.53750% 0.13614%
1977Q4 1.53083% 0.69182%
1978Q1 1.36500% 1.28902%
1978Q2 1.11500% 0.87922%
1978Q3 0.89833% 1.22399%
1978Q4 0.69083% 0.61005%
1979Q1 0.53500% 0.59231%
1979Q2 0.37167% 0.45939%
1979Q3 0.21750% 0.78850%
1979Q4 0.05667% 1.03594%
1980Q1 -0.04417% 1.03678%
1980Q2 -0.02667% 1.74975%
1980Q3 0.04250% 1.83482%
1980Q4 0.11333% 1.88613%
1981Q1 0.21083% 1.36286%
1981Q2 0.33583% 1.55128%
1981Q3 0.46167% 1.22660%
1981Q4 0.66333% 1.91887%
1982Q1 0.91583% 2.06110%
1982Q2 1.23583% 2.22693%
1982Q3 1.58083% 2.48315%
1982Q4 1.99250% 2.31501%
1983Q1 2.34583% 2.46008%
1983Q2 2.59083% 2.05750%
1983Q3 2.74417% 2.20005%
1983Q4 2.84750% 1.77659%
1984Q1 2.90083% 1.56929%
1984Q2 2.91917% 1.74099%
1984Q3 2.92917% 1.72335%
1984Q4 2.86417% 1.62392%
1985Q1 2.74750% 1.63240%
1985Q2 2.58083% 1.49699%
1985Q3 2.36333% 1.27561%
1985Q4 2.06250% 1.29172%
1986Q1 1.78667% 0.95175%
1986Q2 1.55167% 0.98351%
1986Q3 1.35833% 0.91418%
1986Q4 1.22333% 0.92916%
1987Q1 1.12083% 1.41576%
1987Q2 1.02750% 1.44909%
1987Q3 0.91667% 1.25612%
1987Q4 0.80583% 1.02259%
1988Q1 0.68000% 1.00226%
1988Q2 0.53667% 1.44919%
1988Q3 0.40250% 1.42601%
1988Q4 0.26833% 1.50939%
1989Q1 0.12583% 1.99025%
1989Q2 -0.03333% 2.11856%
1989Q3 -0.16750% 2.24081%
1989Q4 -0.27667% 2.48200%
1990Q1 -0.37667% 1.97365%
1990Q2 -0.45167% 1.47408%
1990Q3 -0.46750% 1.57679%
1990Q4 -0.44083% 1.98382%
1991Q1 -0.35583% 2.04151%
1991Q2 -0.23500% 1.58209%
1991Q3 -0.10500% 1.32972%
1991Q4 0.06000% 1.38341%
1992Q1 0.26000% 0.72356%
1992Q2 0.47917% 0.62334%
1992Q3 0.69250% 0.28111%
1992Q4 0.88250% 0.43227%
1993Q1 1.06583% 0.99861%
1993Q2 1.24333% 1.41300%
1993Q3 1.36417% 1.34413%
1993Q4 1.43583% 1.13025%
1994Q1 1.46750% 1.03219%
1994Q2 1.44917% 1.37474%
1994Q3 1.40667% 1.71278%
1994Q4 1.31417% 1.59871%
1995Q1 1.18750% 1.85366%
1995Q2 1.06083% 1.93519%
1995Q3 0.93333% 2.33622%
1995Q4 0.81333% 2.19651%
1996Q1 0.70083% 2.07312%
1996Q2 0.59500% 1.82721%
1996Q3 0.49667% 2.11271%
1996Q4 0.41417% 2.51015%
1997Q1 0.32167% 2.34355%
1997Q2 0.24500% 2.59609%
1997Q3 0.17583% 2.48820%
1997Q4 0.12167% 2.71011%
1998Q1 0.06667% 2.51975%
1998Q2 -0.02250% 2.75297%
1998Q3 -0.10500% 2.43136%
1998Q4 -0.18833% 2.59068%
1999Q1 -0.27250% 2.85705%
1999Q2 -0.35750% 2.88197%
1999Q3 -0.43583% 2.77873%
1999Q4 -0.52333% 2.35895%
2000Q1 -0.61167% 2.84221%
2000Q2 -0.69333% 2.72381%
2000Q3 -0.76000% 3.10514%
2000Q4 -0.81833% 3.02576%
2001Q1 -0.84417% 3.15061%
2001Q2 -0.83833% 2.96511%
2001Q3 -0.80833% 3.04742%
2001Q4 -0.71250% 2.95583%
2002Q1 -0.59250% 2.59461%
2002Q2 -0.46500% 2.57767%
2002Q3 -0.33750% 2.55390%
2002Q4 -0.19417% 2.69385%
2003Q1 -0.03500% 2.44576%
2003Q2 0.14917% 2.02395%
2003Q3 0.32500% 1.39805%
2003Q4 0.48333% 1.25575%
2004Q1 0.60833% 1.26979%
2004Q2 0.70833% 1.19039%
2004Q3 0.75833% 1.34394%
2004Q4 0.75000% 1.17830%
2005Q1 0.71667% 0.80771%
2005Q2 0.65833% 1.05541%
2005Q3 0.60000% 0.97522%
2005Q4 0.53333% 0.73376%
2006Q1 0.43333% 0.83656%
2006Q2 0.31667% 1.31188%
2006Q3 0.19167% 1.96244%
2006Q4 0.08333% 2.20309%
2007Q1 -0.01667% 2.25058%
2007Q2 -0.10833% 2.07634%
2007Q3 -0.16667% 1.98735%
2007Q4 -0.21667% 2.02493%
2008Q1 -0.24167% 2.00631%
2008Q2 -0.22917% 1.82768%
2008Q3 -0.15250% 1.63047%
2008Q4 -0.01000% 1.94370%
2009Q1 0.26667% 1.80028%
2009Q2 0.61833% 1.45782%
2009Q3 0.99417% 0.69766%
2009Q4 1.39417% 0.23599%
2010Q1 1.77250% 0.26553%
2010Q2 2.13917% 0.34709%
2010Q3 2.46917% 0.19669%
2010Q4 2.78667% 0.24278%
2011Q1 3.04250% 0.32581%
2011Q2 3.28333% 0.34820%
2011Q3 3.45833% 0.64974%
2011Q4 3.54000% 0.29234%
2012Q1 3.47833% 0.09393%
2012Q2 3.33500% 0.15313%
2012Q3 3.16000% 0.57374%
2012Q4 2.95250% 0.55100%
2013Q1 2.76000% 0.46097%
2013Q2 2.56333% 0.43774%
2013Q3 2.37167% 0.39779%
2013Q4 2.17083% 0.23673%
2014Q1 1.98833% 0.47916%
2014Q2 1.77583% 0.37257%
2014Q3 1.57333% -0.07013%
2014Q4 1.37417% 0.39935%
2015Q1 1.19333% 0.99864%
2015Q2 1.01167% 0.25345%
2015Q3 0.82083% -1.59550%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Economic Policy Institute

Note: The unemployment gap is defined as the difference between actual unemployment and the CBO estimate of NAIRU. The plot shows in each year the average unemployment gap over the preceding three years as well as the average rate of productivity growth in the successive three years.

Source: Author’s analysis of unpublished data on Total Economy Productivity from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and CBO estimates of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), which is a component of CBO estimates of potential GDP

CPC targets genuine full employment = 4 percent unemployment rate

Unemployment rate, 1948–2016

Date Unemployment rate
Jan-1948 3.4%
Feb-1948 3.8%
Mar-1948 4.0%
Apr-1948 3.9%
May-1948 3.5%
Jun-1948 3.6%
Jul-1948 3.6%
Aug-1948 3.9%
Sep-1948 3.8%
Oct-1948 3.7%
Nov-1948 3.8%
Dec-1948 4.0%
Jan-1949 4.3%
Feb-1949 4.7%
Mar-1949 5.0%
Apr-1949 5.3%
May-1949 6.1%
Jun-1949 6.2%
Jul-1949 6.7%
Aug-1949 6.8%
Sep-1949 6.6%
Oct-1949 7.9%
Nov-1949 6.4%
Dec-1949 6.6%
Jan-1950 6.5%
Feb-1950 6.4%
Mar-1950 6.3%
Apr-1950 5.8%
May-1950 5.5%
Jun-1950 5.4%
Jul-1950 5.0%
Aug-1950 4.5%
Sep-1950 4.4%
Oct-1950 4.2%
Nov-1950 4.2%
Dec-1950 4.3%
Jan-1951 3.7%
Feb-1951 3.4%
Mar-1951 3.4%
Apr-1951 3.1%
May-1951 3.0%
Jun-1951 3.2%
Jul-1951 3.1%
Aug-1951 3.1%
Sep-1951 3.3%
Oct-1951 3.5%
Nov-1951 3.5%
Dec-1951 3.1%
Jan-1952 3.2%
Feb-1952 3.1%
Mar-1952 2.9%
Apr-1952 2.9%
May-1952 3.0%
Jun-1952 3.0%
Jul-1952 3.2%
Aug-1952 3.4%
Sep-1952 3.1%
Oct-1952 3.0%
Nov-1952 2.8%
Dec-1952 2.7%
Jan-1953 2.9%
Feb-1953 2.6%
Mar-1953 2.6%
Apr-1953 2.7%
May-1953 2.5%
Jun-1953 2.5%
Jul-1953 2.6%
Aug-1953 2.7%
Sep-1953 2.9%
Oct-1953 3.1%
Nov-1953 3.5%
Dec-1953 4.5%
Jan-1954 4.9%
Feb-1954 5.2%
Mar-1954 5.7%
Apr-1954 5.9%
May-1954 5.9%
Jun-1954 5.6%
Jul-1954 5.8%
Aug-1954 6.0%
Sep-1954 6.1%
Oct-1954 5.7%
Nov-1954 5.3%
Dec-1954 5.0%
Jan-1955 4.9%
Feb-1955 4.7%
Mar-1955 4.6%
Apr-1955 4.7%
May-1955 4.3%
Jun-1955 4.2%
Jul-1955 4.0%
Aug-1955 4.2%
Sep-1955 4.1%
Oct-1955 4.3%
Nov-1955 4.2%
Dec-1955 4.2%
Jan-1956 4.0%
Feb-1956 3.9%
Mar-1956 4.2%
Apr-1956 4.0%
May-1956 4.3%
Jun-1956 4.3%
Jul-1956 4.4%
Aug-1956 4.1%
Sep-1956 3.9%
Oct-1956 3.9%
Nov-1956 4.3%
Dec-1956 4.2%
Jan-1957 4.2%
Feb-1957 3.9%
Mar-1957 3.7%
Apr-1957 3.9%
May-1957 4.1%
Jun-1957 4.3%
Jul-1957 4.2%
Aug-1957 4.1%
Sep-1957 4.4%
Oct-1957 4.5%
Nov-1957 5.1%
Dec-1957 5.2%
Jan-1958 5.8%
Feb-1958 6.4%
Mar-1958 6.7%
Apr-1958 7.4%
May-1958 7.4%
Jun-1958 7.3%
Jul-1958 7.5%
Aug-1958 7.4%
Sep-1958 7.1%
Oct-1958 6.7%
Nov-1958 6.2%
Dec-1958 6.2%
Jan-1959 6.0%
Feb-1959 5.9%
Mar-1959 5.6%
Apr-1959 5.2%
May-1959 5.1%
Jun-1959 5.0%
Jul-1959 5.1%
Aug-1959 5.2%
Sep-1959 5.5%
Oct-1959 5.7%
Nov-1959 5.8%
Dec-1959 5.3%
Jan-1960 5.2%
Feb-1960 4.8%
Mar-1960 5.4%
Apr-1960 5.2%
May-1960 5.1%
Jun-1960 5.4%
Jul-1960 5.5%
Aug-1960 5.6%
Sep-1960 5.5%
Oct-1960 6.1%
Nov-1960 6.1%
Dec-1960 6.6%
Jan-1961 6.6%
Feb-1961 6.9%
Mar-1961 6.9%
Apr-1961 7.0%
May-1961 7.1%
Jun-1961 6.9%
Jul-1961 7.0%
Aug-1961 6.6%
Sep-1961 6.7%
Oct-1961 6.5%
Nov-1961 6.1%
Dec-1961 6.0%
Jan-1962 5.8%
Feb-1962 5.5%
Mar-1962 5.6%
Apr-1962 5.6%
May-1962 5.5%
Jun-1962 5.5%
Jul-1962 5.4%
Aug-1962 5.7%
Sep-1962 5.6%
Oct-1962 5.4%
Nov-1962 5.7%
Dec-1962 5.5%
Jan-1963 5.7%
Feb-1963 5.9%
Mar-1963 5.7%
Apr-1963 5.7%
May-1963 5.9%
Jun-1963 5.6%
Jul-1963 5.6%
Aug-1963 5.4%
Sep-1963 5.5%
Oct-1963 5.5%
Nov-1963 5.7%
Dec-1963 5.5%
Jan-1964 5.6%
Feb-1964 5.4%
Mar-1964 5.4%
Apr-1964 5.3%
May-1964 5.1%
Jun-1964 5.2%
Jul-1964 4.9%
Aug-1964 5.0%
Sep-1964 5.1%
Oct-1964 5.1%
Nov-1964 4.8%
Dec-1964 5.0%
Jan-1965 4.9%
Feb-1965 5.1%
Mar-1965 4.7%
Apr-1965 4.8%
May-1965 4.6%
Jun-1965 4.6%
Jul-1965 4.4%
Aug-1965 4.4%
Sep-1965 4.3%
Oct-1965 4.2%
Nov-1965 4.1%
Dec-1965 4.0%
Jan-1966 4.0%
Feb-1966 3.8%
Mar-1966 3.8%
Apr-1966 3.8%
May-1966 3.9%
Jun-1966 3.8%
Jul-1966 3.8%
Aug-1966 3.8%
Sep-1966 3.7%
Oct-1966 3.7%
Nov-1966 3.6%
Dec-1966 3.8%
Jan-1967 3.9%
Feb-1967 3.8%
Mar-1967 3.8%
Apr-1967 3.8%
May-1967 3.8%
Jun-1967 3.9%
Jul-1967 3.8%
Aug-1967 3.8%
Sep-1967 3.8%
Oct-1967 4.0%
Nov-1967 3.9%
Dec-1967 3.8%
Jan-1968 3.7%
Feb-1968 3.8%
Mar-1968 3.7%
Apr-1968 3.5%
May-1968 3.5%
Jun-1968 3.7%
Jul-1968 3.7%
Aug-1968 3.5%
Sep-1968 3.4%
Oct-1968 3.4%
Nov-1968 3.4%
Dec-1968 3.4%
Jan-1969 3.4%
Feb-1969 3.4%
Mar-1969 3.4%
Apr-1969 3.4%
May-1969 3.4%
Jun-1969 3.5%
Jul-1969 3.5%
Aug-1969 3.5%
Sep-1969 3.7%
Oct-1969 3.7%
Nov-1969 3.5%
Dec-1969 3.5%
Jan-1970 3.9%
Feb-1970 4.2%
Mar-1970 4.4%
Apr-1970 4.6%
May-1970 4.8%
Jun-1970 4.9%
Jul-1970 5.0%
Aug-1970 5.1%
Sep-1970 5.4%
Oct-1970 5.5%
Nov-1970 5.9%
Dec-1970 6.1%
Jan-1971 5.9%
Feb-1971 5.9%
Mar-1971 6.0%
Apr-1971 5.9%
May-1971 5.9%
Jun-1971 5.9%
Jul-1971 6.0%
Aug-1971 6.1%
Sep-1971 6.0%
Oct-1971 5.8%
Nov-1971 6.0%
Dec-1971 6.0%
Jan-1972 5.8%
Feb-1972 5.7%
Mar-1972 5.8%
Apr-1972 5.7%
May-1972 5.7%
Jun-1972 5.7%
Jul-1972 5.6%
Aug-1972 5.6%
Sep-1972 5.5%
Oct-1972 5.6%
Nov-1972 5.3%
Dec-1972 5.2%
Jan-1973 4.9%
Feb-1973 5.0%
Mar-1973 4.9%
Apr-1973 5.0%
May-1973 4.9%
Jun-1973 4.9%
Jul-1973 4.8%
Aug-1973 4.8%
Sep-1973 4.8%
Oct-1973 4.6%
Nov-1973 4.8%
Dec-1973 4.9%
Jan-1974 5.1%
Feb-1974 5.2%
Mar-1974 5.1%
Apr-1974 5.1%
May-1974 5.1%
Jun-1974 5.4%
Jul-1974 5.5%
Aug-1974 5.5%
Sep-1974 5.9%
Oct-1974 6.0%
Nov-1974 6.6%
Dec-1974 7.2%
Jan-1975 8.1%
Feb-1975 8.1%
Mar-1975 8.6%
Apr-1975 8.8%
May-1975 9.0%
Jun-1975 8.8%
Jul-1975 8.6%
Aug-1975 8.4%
Sep-1975 8.4%
Oct-1975 8.4%
Nov-1975 8.3%
Dec-1975 8.2%
Jan-1976 7.9%
Feb-1976 7.7%
Mar-1976 7.6%
Apr-1976 7.7%
May-1976 7.4%
Jun-1976 7.6%
Jul-1976 7.8%
Aug-1976 7.8%
Sep-1976 7.6%
Oct-1976 7.7%
Nov-1976 7.8%
Dec-1976 7.8%
Jan-1977 7.5%
Feb-1977 7.6%
Mar-1977 7.4%
Apr-1977 7.2%
May-1977 7.0%
Jun-1977 7.2%
Jul-1977 6.9%
Aug-1977 7.0%
Sep-1977 6.8%
Oct-1977 6.8%
Nov-1977 6.8%
Dec-1977 6.4%
Jan-1978 6.4%
Feb-1978 6.3%
Mar-1978 6.3%
Apr-1978 6.1%
May-1978 6.0%
Jun-1978 5.9%
Jul-1978 6.2%
Aug-1978 5.9%
Sep-1978 6.0%
Oct-1978 5.8%
Nov-1978 5.9%
Dec-1978 6.0%
Jan-1979 5.9%
Feb-1979 5.9%
Mar-1979 5.8%
Apr-1979 5.8%
May-1979 5.6%
Jun-1979 5.7%
Jul-1979 5.7%
Aug-1979 6.0%
Sep-1979 5.9%
Oct-1979 6.0%
Nov-1979 5.9%
Dec-1979 6.0%
Jan-1980 6.3%
Feb-1980 6.3%
Mar-1980 6.3%
Apr-1980 6.9%
May-1980 7.5%
Jun-1980 7.6%
Jul-1980 7.8%
Aug-1980 7.7%
Sep-1980 7.5%
Oct-1980 7.5%
Nov-1980 7.5%
Dec-1980 7.2%
Jan-1981 7.5%
Feb-1981 7.4%
Mar-1981 7.4%
Apr-1981 7.2%
May-1981 7.5%
Jun-1981 7.5%
Jul-1981 7.2%
Aug-1981 7.4%
Sep-1981 7.6%
Oct-1981 7.9%
Nov-1981 8.3%
Dec-1981 8.5%
Jan-1982 8.6%
Feb-1982 8.9%
Mar-1982 9.0%
Apr-1982 9.3%
May-1982 9.4%
Jun-1982 9.6%
Jul-1982 9.8%
Aug-1982 9.8%
Sep-1982 10.1%
Oct-1982 10.4%
Nov-1982 10.8%
Dec-1982 10.8%
Jan-1983 10.4%
Feb-1983 10.4%
Mar-1983 10.3%
Apr-1983 10.2%
May-1983 10.1%
Jun-1983 10.1%
Jul-1983 9.4%
Aug-1983 9.5%
Sep-1983 9.2%
Oct-1983 8.8%
Nov-1983 8.5%
Dec-1983 8.3%
Jan-1984 8.0%
Feb-1984 7.8%
Mar-1984 7.8%
Apr-1984 7.7%
May-1984 7.4%
Jun-1984 7.2%
Jul-1984 7.5%
Aug-1984 7.5%
Sep-1984 7.3%
Oct-1984 7.4%
Nov-1984 7.2%
Dec-1984 7.3%
Jan-1985 7.3%
Feb-1985 7.2%
Mar-1985 7.2%
Apr-1985 7.3%
May-1985 7.2%
Jun-1985 7.4%
Jul-1985 7.4%
Aug-1985 7.1%
Sep-1985 7.1%
Oct-1985 7.1%
Nov-1985 7.0%
Dec-1985 7.0%
Jan-1986 6.7%
Feb-1986 7.2%
Mar-1986 7.2%
Apr-1986 7.1%
May-1986 7.2%
Jun-1986 7.2%
Jul-1986 7.0%
Aug-1986 6.9%
Sep-1986 7.0%
Oct-1986 7.0%
Nov-1986 6.9%
Dec-1986 6.6%
Jan-1987 6.6%
Feb-1987 6.6%
Mar-1987 6.6%
Apr-1987 6.3%
May-1987 6.3%
Jun-1987 6.2%
Jul-1987 6.1%
Aug-1987 6.0%
Sep-1987 5.9%
Oct-1987 6.0%
Nov-1987 5.8%
Dec-1987 5.7%
Jan-1988 5.7%
Feb-1988 5.7%
Mar-1988 5.7%
Apr-1988 5.4%
May-1988 5.6%
Jun-1988 5.4%
Jul-1988 5.4%
Aug-1988 5.6%
Sep-1988 5.4%
Oct-1988 5.4%
Nov-1988 5.3%
Dec-1988 5.3%
Jan-1989 5.4%
Feb-1989 5.2%
Mar-1989 5.0%
Apr-1989 5.2%
May-1989 5.2%
Jun-1989 5.3%
Jul-1989 5.2%
Aug-1989 5.2%
Sep-1989 5.3%
Oct-1989 5.3%
Nov-1989 5.4%
Dec-1989 5.4%
Jan-1990 5.4%
Feb-1990 5.3%
Mar-1990 5.2%
Apr-1990 5.4%
May-1990 5.4%
Jun-1990 5.2%
Jul-1990 5.5%
Aug-1990 5.7%
Sep-1990 5.9%
Oct-1990 5.9%
Nov-1990 6.2%
Dec-1990 6.3%
Jan-1991 6.4%
Feb-1991 6.6%
Mar-1991 6.8%
Apr-1991 6.7%
May-1991 6.9%
Jun-1991 6.9%
Jul-1991 6.8%
Aug-1991 6.9%
Sep-1991 6.9%
Oct-1991 7.0%
Nov-1991 7.0%
Dec-1991 7.3%
Jan-1992 7.3%
Feb-1992 7.4%
Mar-1992 7.4%
Apr-1992 7.4%
May-1992 7.6%
Jun-1992 7.8%
Jul-1992 7.7%
Aug-1992 7.6%
Sep-1992 7.6%
Oct-1992 7.3%
Nov-1992 7.4%
Dec-1992 7.4%
Jan-1993 7.3%
Feb-1993 7.1%
Mar-1993 7.0%
Apr-1993 7.1%
May-1993 7.1%
Jun-1993 7.0%
Jul-1993 6.9%
Aug-1993 6.8%
Sep-1993 6.7%
Oct-1993 6.8%
Nov-1993 6.6%
Dec-1993 6.5%
Jan-1994 6.6%
Feb-1994 6.6%
Mar-1994 6.5%
Apr-1994 6.4%
May-1994 6.1%
Jun-1994 6.1%
Jul-1994 6.1%
Aug-1994 6.0%
Sep-1994 5.9%
Oct-1994 5.8%
Nov-1994 5.6%
Dec-1994 5.5%
Jan-1995 5.6%
Feb-1995 5.4%
Mar-1995 5.4%
Apr-1995 5.8%
May-1995 5.6%
Jun-1995 5.6%
Jul-1995 5.7%
Aug-1995 5.7%
Sep-1995 5.6%
Oct-1995 5.5%
Nov-1995 5.6%
Dec-1995 5.6%
Jan-1996 5.6%
Feb-1996 5.5%
Mar-1996 5.5%
Apr-1996 5.6%
May-1996 5.6%
Jun-1996 5.3%
Jul-1996 5.5%
Aug-1996 5.1%
Sep-1996 5.2%
Oct-1996 5.2%
Nov-1996 5.4%
Dec-1996 5.4%
Jan-1997 5.3%
Feb-1997 5.2%
Mar-1997 5.2%
Apr-1997 5.1%
May-1997 4.9%
Jun-1997 5.0%
Jul-1997 4.9%
Aug-1997 4.8%
Sep-1997 4.9%
Oct-1997 4.7%
Nov-1997 4.6%
Dec-1997 4.7%
Jan-1998 4.6%
Feb-1998 4.6%
Mar-1998 4.7%
Apr-1998 4.3%
May-1998 4.4%
Jun-1998 4.5%
Jul-1998 4.5%
Aug-1998 4.5%
Sep-1998 4.6%
Oct-1998 4.5%
Nov-1998 4.4%
Dec-1998 4.4%
Jan-1999 4.3%
Feb-1999 4.4%
Mar-1999 4.2%
Apr-1999 4.3%
May-1999 4.2%
Jun-1999 4.3%
Jul-1999 4.3%
Aug-1999 4.2%
Sep-1999 4.2%
Oct-1999 4.1%
Nov-1999 4.1%
Dec-1999 4.0%
Jan-2000 4.0%
Feb-2000 4.1%
Mar-2000 4.0%
Apr-2000 3.8%
May-2000 4.0%
Jun-2000 4.0%
Jul-2000 4.0%
Aug-2000 4.1%
Sep-2000 3.9%
Oct-2000 3.9%
Nov-2000 3.9%
Dec-2000 3.9%
Jan-2001 4.2%
Feb-2001 4.2%
Mar-2001 4.3%
Apr-2001 4.4%
May-2001 4.3%
Jun-2001 4.5%
Jul-2001 4.6%
Aug-2001 4.9%
Sep-2001 5.0%
Oct-2001 5.3%
Nov-2001 5.5%
Dec-2001 5.7%
Jan-2002 5.7%
Feb-2002 5.7%
Mar-2002 5.7%
Apr-2002 5.9%
May-2002 5.8%
Jun-2002 5.8%
Jul-2002 5.8%
Aug-2002 5.7%
Sep-2002 5.7%
Oct-2002 5.7%
Nov-2002 5.9%
Dec-2002 6.0%
Jan-2003 5.8%
Feb-2003 5.9%
Mar-2003 5.9%
Apr-2003 6.0%
May-2003 6.1%
Jun-2003 6.3%
Jul-2003 6.2%
Aug-2003 6.1%
Sep-2003 6.1%
Oct-2003 6.0%
Nov-2003 5.8%
Dec-2003 5.7%
Jan-2004 5.7%
Feb-2004 5.6%
Mar-2004 5.8%
Apr-2004 5.6%
May-2004 5.6%
Jun-2004 5.6%
Jul-2004 5.5%
Aug-2004 5.4%
Sep-2004 5.4%
Oct-2004 5.5%
Nov-2004 5.4%
Dec-2004 5.4%
Jan-2005 5.3%
Feb-2005 5.4%
Mar-2005 5.2%
Apr-2005 5.2%
May-2005 5.1%
Jun-2005 5.0%
Jul-2005 5.0%
Aug-2005 4.9%
Sep-2005 5.0%
Oct-2005 5.0%
Nov-2005 5.0%
Dec-2005 4.9%
Jan-2006 4.7%
Feb-2006 4.8%
Mar-2006 4.7%
Apr-2006 4.7%
May-2006 4.6%
Jun-2006 4.6%
Jul-2006 4.7%
Aug-2006 4.7%
Sep-2006 4.5%
Oct-2006 4.4%
Nov-2006 4.5%
Dec-2006 4.4%
Jan-2007 4.6%
Feb-2007 4.5%
Mar-2007 4.4%
Apr-2007 4.5%
May-2007 4.4%
Jun-2007 4.6%
Jul-2007 4.7%
Aug-2007 4.6%
Sep-2007 4.7%
Oct-2007 4.7%
Nov-2007 4.7%
Dec-2007 5.0%
Jan-2008 5.0%
Feb-2008 4.9%
Mar-2008 5.1%
Apr-2008 5.0%
May-2008 5.4%
Jun-2008 5.6%
Jul-2008 5.8%
Aug-2008 6.1%
Sep-2008 6.1%
Oct-2008 6.5%
Nov-2008 6.8%
Dec-2008 7.3%
Jan-2009 7.8%
Feb-2009 8.3%
Mar-2009 8.7%
Apr-2009 9.0%
May-2009 9.4%
Jun-2009 9.5%
Jul-2009 9.5%
Aug-2009 9.6%
Sep-2009 9.8%
Oct-2009 10.0%
Nov-2009 9.9%
Dec-2009 9.9%
Jan-2010 9.8%
Feb-2010 9.8%
Mar-2010 9.9%
Apr-2010 9.9%
May-2010 9.6%
Jun-2010 9.4%
Jul-2010 9.4%
Aug-2010 9.5%
Sep-2010 9.5%
Oct-2010 9.4%
Nov-2010 9.8%
Dec-2010 9.3%
Jan-2011 9.1%
Feb-2011 9.0%
Mar-2011 9.0%
Apr-2011 9.1%
May-2011 9.0%
Jun-2011 9.1%
Jul-2011 9.0%
Aug-2011 9.0%
Sep-2011 9.0%
Oct-2011 8.8%
Nov-2011 8.6%
Dec-2011 8.5%
Jan-2012 8.3%
Feb-2012 8.3%
Mar-2012 8.2%
Apr-2012 8.2%
May-2012 8.2%
Jun-2012 8.2%
Jul-2012 8.2%
Aug-2012 8.1%
Sep-2012 7.8%
Oct-2012 7.8%
Nov-2012 7.7%
Dec-2012 7.9%
Jan-2013 8.0%
Feb-2013 7.7%
Mar-2013 7.5%
Apr-2013 7.6%
May-2013 7.5%
Jun-2013 7.5%
Jul-2013 7.3%
Aug-2013 7.3%
Sep-2013 7.3%
Oct-2013 7.2%
Nov-2013 6.9%
Dec-2013 6.7%
Jan-2014 6.6%
Feb-2014 6.7%
Mar-2014 6.7%
Apr-2014 6.2%
May-2014 6.2%
Jun-2014 6.1%
Jul-2014 6.2%
Aug-2014 6.2%
Sep-2014 6.0%
Oct-2014 5.7%
Nov-2014 5.8%
Dec-2014 5.6%
Jan-2015 5.7%
Feb-2015 5.5%
Mar-2015 5.5%
Apr-2015 5.4%
May-2015 5.5%
Jun-2015 5.3%
Jul-2015 5.3%
Aug-2015 5.1%
Sep-2015 5.1%
Oct-2015 5.0%
Nov-2015 5.0%
Dec-2015 5.0%
Jan-2016 4.9%
Feb-2016 4.9%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Economic Policy Institute

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey

Mechanisms running from healthy demand ⇒ productivity growth?

  • Increased investment

  • Spur from faster labor cost growth to undertake labor-saving tech changes

  • Getting people into schooling 

Slack in demand muffles investment: 4-quarter change in business fixed investment and all other components of GDP, 1955–2015

Date Growth of all other components of GDP Fixed-investment growth rate
1955Q1 3.88% 11.88%
1955Q2 4.63% 14.71%
1955Q3 5.00% 13.02%
1955Q4 3.07% 11.04%
1956Q1 1.13% 5.17%
1956Q2 1.49% 2.01%
1956Q3 0.39% -0.20%
1956Q4 2.60% -1.07%
1957Q1 3.72% 0.54%
1957Q2 2.29% -1.34%
1957Q3 3.16% -0.38%
1957Q4 1.74% -1.58%
1958Q1 -1.00% -7.07%
1958Q2 0.57% -8.58%
1958Q3 1.63% -8.14%
1958Q4 3.16% -1.05%
1959Q1 6.63% 11.04%
1959Q2 6.94% 17.36%
1959Q3 6.01% 16.85%
1959Q4 3.56% 9.03%
1960Q1 2.43% 6.40%
1960Q2 1.59% 1.34%
1960Q3 1.13% -1.87%
1960Q4 2.08% -0.91%
1961Q1 2.11% -4.93%
1961Q2 2.34% -1.58%
1961Q3 3.07% 2.99%
1961Q4 4.74% 6.46%
1962Q1 5.56% 9.43%
1962Q2 6.01% 10.71%
1962Q3 5.92% 8.99%
1962Q4 4.65% 5.33%
1963Q1 3.71% 4.70%
1963Q2 3.78% 6.35%
1963Q3 4.92% 8.10%
1963Q4 4.54% 11.67%
1964Q1 6.21% 14.05%
1964Q2 5.70% 8.98%
1964Q3 4.44% 8.09%
1964Q4 3.86% 5.87%
1965Q1 2.99% 6.95%
1965Q2 3.36% 10.18%
1965Q3 4.39% 11.35%
1965Q4 6.71% 12.94%
1966Q1 7.11% 12.09%
1966Q2 6.06% 7.94%
1966Q3 5.11% 5.21%
1966Q4 3.06% 0.10%
1967Q1 3.18% -5.33%
1967Q2 4.23% -2.03%
1967Q3 4.08% -0.96%
1967Q4 4.67% 4.80%
1968Q1 4.95% 9.20%
1968Q2 4.91% 6.31%
1968Q3 5.38% 6.67%
1968Q4 4.92% 6.01%
1969Q1 4.05% 6.58%
1969Q2 2.78% 7.40%
1969Q3 1.78% 7.28%
1969Q4 1.21% 2.47%
1970Q1 0.45% -0.80%
1970Q2 0.06% -3.35%
1970Q3 0.77% -3.10%
1970Q4 1.32% -0.92%
1971Q1 2.20% 1.63%
1971Q2 3.32% 7.65%
1971Q3 3.17% 7.69%
1971Q4 4.01% 10.54%
1972Q1 3.94% 12.93%
1972Q2 4.90% 10.71%
1972Q3 4.59% 10.07%
1972Q4 5.37% 11.95%
1973Q1 6.02% 11.59%
1973Q2 4.09% 10.54%
1973Q3 3.22% 8.98%
1973Q4 1.09% 3.51%
1974Q1 -0.88% -2.38%
1974Q2 -0.61% -4.34%
1974Q3 -0.43% -5.63%
1974Q4 -1.73% -9.92%
1975Q1 -0.29% -13.31%
1975Q2 0.96% -13.21%
1975Q3 2.31% -9.60%
1975Q4 5.08% -2.56%
1976Q1 5.43% 7.52%
1976Q2 4.34% 10.55%
1976Q3 3.44% 9.13%
1976Q4 3.72% 12.07%
1977Q1 2.99% 11.39%
1977Q2 4.22% 15.29%
1977Q3 4.66% 15.46%
1977Q4 3.76% 12.13%
1978Q1 3.09% 9.36%
1978Q2 4.65% 11.05%
1978Q3 4.39% 12.62%
1978Q4 4.68% 13.14%
1979Q1 4.44% 13.12%
1979Q2 1.47% 5.27%
1979Q3 1.84% 4.28%
1979Q4 1.23% 1.10%
1980Q1 1.24% -1.10%
1980Q2 -0.84% -8.68%
1980Q3 -0.84% -9.15%
1980Q4 -0.10% -4.83%
1981Q1 0.37% -2.64%
1981Q2 2.30% 6.89%
1981Q3 1.06% 5.62%
1981Q4 -0.85% 1.38%
1982Q1 -1.19% -2.77%
1982Q2 -0.69% -6.61%
1982Q3 -0.23% -8.86%
1982Q4 2.67% -8.47%
1983Q1 4.26% -3.32%
1983Q2 5.63% 3.64%
1983Q3 7.33% 12.16%
1983Q4 5.89% 18.35%
1984Q1 4.85% 19.36%
1984Q2 4.60% 19.50%
1984Q3 3.41% 15.39%
1984Q4 4.10% 11.24%
1985Q1 5.24% 8.83%
1985Q2 4.64% 6.09%
1985Q3 6.18% 3.60%
1985Q4 5.06% 3.72%
1986Q1 4.57% 3.08%
1986Q2 5.06% 1.80%
1986Q3 4.83% 1.76%
1986Q4 5.03% 0.64%
1987Q1 3.98% -1.38%
1987Q2 3.82% 0.11%
1987Q3 2.85% 2.29%
1987Q4 2.93% 1.46%
1988Q1 4.05% 3.30%
1988Q2 3.75% 3.74%
1988Q3 3.38% 2.45%
1988Q4 4.16% 3.71%
1989Q1 3.12% 4.56%
1989Q2 3.01% 2.69%
1989Q3 3.44% 4.01%
1989Q4 2.42% 1.47%
1990Q1 3.25% 1.76%
1990Q2 2.56% -0.38%
1990Q3 1.65% -2.92%
1990Q4 1.10% -4.17%
1991Q1 -0.21% -7.90%
1991Q2 0.56% -5.76%
1991Q3 0.83% -4.84%
1991Q4 1.05% -1.92%
1992Q1 3.14% 1.98%
1992Q2 2.65% 5.03%
1992Q3 3.24% 6.11%
1992Q4 4.09% 8.76%
1993Q1 1.97% 8.36%
1993Q2 2.15% 6.77%
1993Q3 2.09% 7.22%
1993Q4 2.16% 8.33%
1994Q1 2.81% 8.86%
1994Q2 2.98% 9.09%
1994Q3 3.04% 8.27%
1994Q4 2.54% 6.60%
1995Q1 2.17% 7.55%
1995Q2 1.99% 5.38%
1995Q3 2.23% 6.01%
1995Q4 2.25% 5.56%
1996Q1 2.83% 5.96%
1996Q2 3.53% 9.34%
1996Q3 2.49% 10.27%
1996Q4 3.21% 9.84%
1997Q1 3.06% 9.10%
1997Q2 2.41% 7.83%
1997Q3 3.39% 9.21%
1997Q4 2.95% 8.33%
1998Q1 2.76% 9.47%
1998Q2 3.62% 10.99%
1998Q3 3.62% 9.15%
1998Q4 4.38% 11.29%
1999Q1 4.43% 10.03%
1999Q2 3.91% 8.98%
1999Q3 3.74% 9.43%
1999Q4 3.74% 7.00%
2000Q1 3.95% 8.11%
2000Q2 3.75% 7.98%
2000Q3 3.12% 6.00%
2000Q4 2.36% 5.75%
2001Q1 2.61% 2.35%
2001Q2 2.62% -1.22%
2001Q3 2.35% -2.41%
2001Q4 3.04% -4.86%
2002Q1 2.81% -4.93%
2002Q2 2.54% -3.90%
2002Q3 3.05% -3.44%
2002Q4 1.91% -1.48%
2003Q1 1.89% -0.18%
2003Q2 2.39% 2.23%
2003Q3 3.37% 5.83%
2003Q4 3.96% 8.22%
2004Q1 4.15% 7.06%
2004Q2 3.37% 7.47%
2004Q3 2.58% 6.28%
2004Q4 2.42% 6.21%
2005Q1 2.47% 8.31%
2005Q2 3.19% 7.28%
2005Q3 3.25% 6.81%
2005Q4 2.58% 5.06%
2006Q1 2.84% 5.55%
2006Q2 1.97% 2.99%
2006Q3 1.12% 0.35%
2006Q4 2.28% -0.86%
2007Q1 1.25% -3.05%
2007Q2 1.47% -1.94%
2007Q3 2.07% -1.53%
2007Q4 1.34% -1.39%
2008Q1 0.90% -3.02%
2008Q2 1.23% -4.63%
2008Q3 0.40% -7.08%
2008Q4 -1.17% -12.47%
2009Q1 -0.68% -17.72%
2009Q2 -0.81% -19.67%
2009Q3 0.04% -17.15%
2009Q4 1.19% -11.91%
2010Q1 1.05% -4.37%
2010Q2 0.97% 2.58%
2010Q3 0.35% 2.61%
2010Q4 1.29% 5.47%
2011Q1 1.24% 5.03%
2011Q2 1.01% 3.75%
2011Q3 1.29% 8.09%
2011Q4 0.58% 8.44%
2012Q1 1.26% 12.48%
2012Q2 1.13% 12.13%
2012Q3 1.14% 7.77%
2012Q4 1.27% 7.04%
2013Q1 1.04% 4.67%
2013Q2 1.09% 3.60%
2013Q3 1.12% 4.54%
2013Q4 1.60% 4.10%
2014Q1 1.12% 4.36%
2014Q2 1.78% 5.12%
2014Q3 2.39% 6.14%
2014Q4 2.17% 5.46%
2015Q1 2.20% 4.77%
2015Q2 2.34% 4.67%
2015Q3 2.12% 3.65%
2015Q4 1.92% 3.05%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Economic Policy Institute

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.

Source: Author’s analysis of data from BEA NIPA Tables 1.1.3 and 1.1.6

Rising labor costs spur productivity growth: 2-year change in labor share of corporate-sector income and subsequent productivity growth, 1951–2013

Date Productivity growth  Labor share of corporate-sector income
1951Q1 3.84% -1.47%
1951Q2 3.98% -1.75%
1951Q3 2.75% -0.83%
1951Q4 2.60% -2.94%
1952Q1 2.45% 0.02%
1952Q2 2.83% 2.29%
1952Q3 3.42% 3.81%
1952Q4 3.22% 3.58%
1953Q1 3.15% 2.23%
1953Q2 3.12% 2.18%
1953Q3 3.05% 2.67%
1953Q4 2.94% 6.09%
1954Q1 2.65% 3.28%
1954Q2 2.25% 1.64%
1954Q3 1.53% 0.34%
1954Q4 1.87% 0.28%
1955Q1 1.62% -1.39%
1955Q2 1.28% -2.04%
1955Q3 1.66% -1.97%
1955Q4 2.42% -5.10%
1956Q1 2.38% -2.59%
1956Q2 2.72% -1.62%
1956Q3 3.53% -0.34%
1956Q4 3.14% 0.91%
1957Q1 3.03% 2.32%
1957Q2 3.13% 2.95%
1957Q3 3.10% 2.84%
1957Q4 2.72% 4.01%
1958Q1 4.04% 4.46%
1958Q2 2.70% 3.49%
1958Q3 1.93% 1.96%
1958Q4 1.31% 0.21%
1959Q1 1.43% -0.03%
1959Q2 2.72% -1.53%
1959Q3 2.86% -0.22%
1959Q4 3.14% -1.14%
1960Q1 2.24% -3.60%
1960Q2 3.18% -1.57%
1960Q3 3.74% -0.19%
1960Q4 4.39% 2.06%
1961Q1 4.25% 2.90%
1961Q2 3.12% 2.55%
1961Q3 3.51% 0.28%
1961Q4 3.22% -0.93%
1962Q1 3.70% -0.08%
1962Q2 3.51% -0.97%
1962Q3 3.34% -1.51%
1962Q4 2.68% -2.52%
1963Q1 3.00% -2.79%
1963Q2 2.78% -2.16%
1963Q3 2.90% -1.70%
1963Q4 3.40% -0.73%
1964Q1 3.21% -1.52%
1964Q2 2.99% -1.72%
1964Q3 2.62% -1.40%
1964Q4 3.08% -0.72%
1965Q1 2.72% -2.10%
1965Q2 2.90% -1.67%
1965Q3 2.04% -1.53%
1965Q4 1.59% -1.97%
1966Q1 1.96% -1.48%
1966Q2 2.57% -0.97%
1966Q3 2.53% -0.30%
1966Q4 2.26% -0.56%
1967Q1 2.15% 1.29%
1967Q2 1.85% 1.70%
1967Q3 1.85% 1.87%
1967Q4 1.60% 1.99%
1968Q1 0.97% 2.67%
1968Q2 1.00% 1.66%
1968Q3 1.85% 1.24%
1968Q4 1.55% 1.24%
1969Q1 2.62% 1.15%
1969Q2 2.74% 1.62%
1969Q3 3.07% 2.12%
1969Q4 3.04% 3.42%
1970Q1 2.88% 4.30%
1970Q2 3.39% 3.93%
1970Q3 2.65% 3.80%
1970Q4 3.42% 4.37%
1971Q1 2.85% 2.47%
1971Q2 2.80% 1.79%
1971Q3 1.77% 0.87%
1971Q4 2.21% -0.36%
1972Q1 1.56% -1.70%
1972Q2 0.95% -0.96%
1972Q3 0.33% -1.35%
1972Q4 0.13% -2.46%
1973Q1 0.02% -1.05%
1973Q2 0.57% -0.40%
1973Q3 1.67% 0.08%
1973Q4 1.40% 0.19%
1974Q1 2.44% 1.10%
1974Q2 2.37% 1.10%
1974Q3 2.90% 1.87%
1974Q4 2.62% 2.62%
1975Q1 2.40% 2.35%
1975Q2 1.75% 0.39%
1975Q3 1.65% -1.41%
1975Q4 1.15% -1.25%
1976Q1 0.61% -2.80%
1976Q2 0.84% -2.14%
1976Q3 1.09% -2.34%
1976Q4 1.17% -2.14%
1977Q1 0.82% -2.04%
1977Q2 0.93% -1.99%
1977Q3 0.18% -1.16%
1977Q4 0.63% -0.47%
1978Q1 0.97% 1.31%
1978Q2 0.05% -1.11%
1978Q3 -0.15% -1.24%
1978Q4 0.13% -1.72%
1979Q1 1.02% -0.35%
1979Q2 0.80% 1.24%
1979Q3 1.91% 2.69%
1979Q4 1.06% 2.46%
1980Q1 0.68% 1.73%
1980Q2 1.00% 4.81%
1980Q3 1.10% 3.93%
1980Q4 1.08% 2.59%
1981Q1 0.55% 1.13%
1981Q2 1.30% 0.78%
1981Q3 0.73% -0.76%
1981Q4 2.05% -0.40%
1982Q1 2.21% 0.28%
1982Q2 2.48% -1.79%
1982Q3 2.61% -1.06%
1982Q4 2.47% 0.68%
1983Q1 2.30% 0.65%
1983Q2 1.80% -0.43%
1983Q3 2.15% -0.12%
1983Q4 1.80% -1.33%
1984Q1 2.25% -3.62%
1984Q2 2.13% -2.81%
1984Q3 2.23% -2.40%
1984Q4 1.84% -2.94%
1985Q1 1.46% -2.53%
1985Q2 1.73% -1.32%
1985Q3 1.46% -1.14%
1985Q4 1.42% 0.58%
1986Q1 1.05% 2.13%
1986Q2 0.95% 2.82%
1986Q3 0.76% 3.13%
1986Q4 1.06% 3.53%
1987Q1 1.32% 3.41%
1987Q2 1.00% 2.38%
1987Q3 1.02% 2.18%
1987Q4 0.81% 1.40%
1988Q1 1.15% 1.02%
1988Q2 1.67% 0.13%
1988Q3 1.44% -0.75%
1988Q4 1.02% -1.63%
1989Q1 1.12% -1.12%
1989Q2 1.63% -0.09%
1989Q3 1.51% 0.50%
1989Q4 1.92% 0.89%
1990Q1 2.16% 0.77%
1990Q2 1.97% 0.66%
1990Q3 2.48% 1.80%
1990Q4 2.99% 2.92%
1991Q1 2.59% 1.53%
1991Q2 1.69% 1.63%
1991Q3 1.65% 1.88%
1991Q4 1.72% 1.46%
1992Q1 1.20% 1.28%
1992Q2 0.84% 1.63%
1992Q3 0.16% 1.10%
1992Q4 0.28% 0.05%
1993Q1 0.30% 1.47%
1993Q2 0.71% 0.43%
1993Q3 0.55% 0.07%
1993Q4 0.66% -1.69%
1994Q1 1.02% -1.41%
1994Q2 1.44% -1.78%
1994Q3 1.68% -2.89%
1994Q4 1.35% -2.70%
1995Q1 1.67% -2.90%
1995Q2 1.97% -2.44%
1995Q3 2.31% -3.25%
1995Q4 2.04% -1.83%
1996Q1 1.59% -2.34%
1996Q2 1.51% -2.21%
1996Q3 2.04% -1.41%
1996Q4 2.27% -0.99%
1997Q1 2.61% -1.61%
1997Q2 2.14% -1.42%
1997Q3 2.29% -1.22%
1997Q4 2.73% -1.12%
1998Q1 2.39% 0.73%
1998Q2 2.95% 0.84%
1998Q3 2.52% 0.51%
1998Q4 2.79% 1.07%
1999Q1 2.23% 1.30%
1999Q2 2.86% 1.68%
1999Q3 2.49% 2.72%
1999Q4 2.36% 2.78%
2000Q1 3.35% 1.88%
2000Q2 2.55% 1.88%
2000Q3 2.71% 2.56%
2000Q4 2.18% 2.69%
2001Q1 2.87% 2.74%
2001Q2 2.91% 2.15%
2001Q3 3.54% 1.99%
2001Q4 3.44% 2.73%
2002Q1 2.68% 0.35%
2002Q2 3.01% 0.09%
2002Q3 2.91% -0.44%
2002Q4 3.28% -2.10%
2003Q1 3.00% -2.57%
2003Q2 2.34% -2.46%
2003Q3 1.90% -2.98%
2003Q4 1.71% -3.97%
2004Q1 1.84% -3.09%
2004Q2 1.52% -3.05%
2004Q3 1.08% -3.11%
2004Q4 0.91% -2.28%
2005Q1 0.71% -3.27%
2005Q2 0.94% -3.19%
2005Q3 1.11% -2.71%
2005Q4 1.01% -4.01%
2006Q1 0.54% -3.37%
2006Q2 0.89% -3.45%
2006Q3 1.26% -3.98%
2006Q4 0.91% -2.50%
2007Q1 1.17% 0.19%
2007Q2 1.67% -0.15%
2007Q3 1.98% 1.02%
2007Q4 2.42% 3.39%
2008Q1 2.86% 4.24%
2008Q2 2.44% 4.41%
2008Q3 2.60% 5.34%
2008Q4 2.93% 7.42%
2009Q1 2.27% 2.50%
2009Q2 1.65% 2.31%
2009Q3 0.76% -0.13%
2009Q4 0.53% -2.46%
2010Q1 0.50% -3.90%
2010Q2 0.76% -3.54%
2010Q3 0.06% -5.53%
2010Q4 -0.24% -9.02%
2011Q1 0.26% -3.21%
2011Q2 0.24% -3.72%
2011Q3 0.47% -2.61%
2011Q4 0.39% -3.12%
2012Q1 0.08% -2.24%
2012Q2 0.00% -2.44%
2012Q3 0.70% -0.61%
2012Q4 0.62% 0.07%
2013Q1 0.25% -2.65%
2013Q2 0.47% -1.49%
2013Q3 0.63% -1.22%
2013Q4 0.22% 0.26%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Economic Policy Institute

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Plot shows in each year the two-year average change in the labor share of corporate-sector income and the succeeding two-year average change in productivity.

Source: Author’s analysis of data from BEA NIPA Table 1.14 and the BLS Total Economy Productivity series

Share of young high school graduates enrolled in college or a university, by gender, 1989–2015*

Date All Men Women
1989-12-01 44.1% 43.4% 44.6%
1990-01-01 44.1% 43.5% 44.5%
1990-02-01 44.1% 43.5% 44.6%
1990-03-01 44.2% 43.6% 44.7%
1990-04-01 44.2% 43.4% 44.9%
1990-05-01 44.3% 43.5% 45.1%
1990-06-01 44.4% 43.5% 45.2%
1990-07-01 44.5% 43.5% 45.4%
1990-08-01 44.9% 44.0% 45.7%
1990-09-01 45.0% 44.1% 45.7%
1990-10-01 45.1% 44.4% 45.8%
1990-11-01 45.4% 44.6% 46.0%
1990-12-01 45.6% 44.9% 46.2%
1991-01-01 45.7% 45.0% 46.2%
1991-02-01 45.6% 45.0% 46.2%
1991-03-01 45.7% 45.0% 46.2%
1991-04-01 45.7% 45.1% 46.2%
1991-05-01 45.3% 44.8% 45.7%
1991-06-01 45.4% 44.9% 45.9%
1991-07-01 45.6% 45.1% 46.0%
1991-08-01 45.5% 45.1% 45.9%
1991-09-01 45.5% 45.0% 45.9%
1991-10-01 45.6% 45.0% 46.1%
1991-11-01 45.7% 44.9% 46.3%
1991-12-01 45.7% 44.8% 46.5%
1992-01-01 45.8% 44.8% 46.8%
1992-02-01 45.9% 44.9% 46.9%
1992-03-01 46.0% 44.9% 46.9%
1992-04-01 46.0% 45.0% 46.8%
1992-05-01 46.2% 45.2% 47.0%
1992-06-01 46.3% 45.4% 47.2%
1992-07-01 46.4% 45.4% 47.2%
1992-08-01 46.2% 45.1% 47.2%
1992-09-01 46.5% 45.2% 47.5%
1992-10-01 46.6% 45.3% 47.7%
1992-11-01 46.6% 45.2% 47.7%
1992-12-01 46.5% 45.3% 47.6%
1993-01-01 46.4% 45.4% 47.4%
1993-02-01 46.4% 45.4% 47.4%
1993-03-01 46.5% 45.3% 47.5%
1993-04-01 46.5% 45.1% 47.8%
1993-05-01 46.8% 45.3% 48.1%
1993-06-01 47.0% 45.5% 48.3%
1993-07-01 47.0% 45.5% 48.4%
1993-08-01 47.1% 45.5% 48.5%
1993-09-01 47.0% 45.5% 48.4%
1993-10-01 46.9% 45.5% 48.2%
1993-11-01 47.1% 45.6% 48.3%
1993-12-01 47.1% 45.5% 48.4%
1994-01-01 47.1% 45.4% 48.7%
1994-02-01 47.2% 45.3% 48.9%
1994-03-01 47.3% 45.4% 49.0%
1994-04-01 47.4% 45.6% 49.1%
1994-05-01 47.6% 45.8% 49.2%
1994-06-01 47.5% 45.8% 49.1%
1994-07-01 47.8% 46.1% 49.2%
1994-08-01 48.4% 46.7% 49.8%
1994-09-01 48.6% 46.8% 50.1%
1994-10-01 48.6% 46.9% 50.2%
1994-11-01 48.7% 47.1% 50.2%
1994-12-01 48.8% 47.1% 50.4%
1995-01-01 48.8% 47.1% 50.4%
1995-02-01 48.7% 46.9% 50.3%
1995-03-01 48.4% 46.6% 50.0%
1995-04-01 48.2% 46.4% 49.7%
1995-05-01 48.2% 46.5% 49.8%
1995-06-01 48.4% 46.8% 49.8%
1995-07-01 48.6% 46.9% 50.1%
1995-08-01 48.6% 47.0% 50.0%
1995-09-01 48.6% 47.2% 49.8%
1995-10-01 48.6% 47.2% 49.8%
1995-11-01 48.3% 46.9% 49.6%
1995-12-01 48.2% 46.8% 49.5%
1996-01-01 48.2% 46.6% 49.6%
1996-02-01 48.4% 46.8% 49.8%
1996-03-01 48.6% 47.0% 50.1%
1996-04-01 48.9% 47.1% 50.4%
1996-05-01 48.5% 46.7% 50.1%
1996-06-01 48.5% 46.6% 50.1%
1996-07-01 48.5% 46.4% 50.4%
1996-08-01 49.2% 46.9% 51.3%
1996-09-01 49.2% 46.7% 51.5%
1996-10-01 49.4% 46.8% 51.8%
1996-11-01 49.6% 47.1% 51.9%
1996-12-01 49.8% 47.5% 51.9%
1997-01-01 50.0% 47.9% 52.0%
1997-02-01 50.1% 48.0% 51.9%
1997-03-01 50.0% 47.9% 51.9%
1997-04-01 49.9% 47.8% 51.7%
1997-05-01 49.9% 47.8% 51.8%
1997-06-01 50.0% 47.7% 52.0%
1997-07-01 49.9% 47.7% 51.9%
1997-08-01 50.1% 48.0% 52.0%
1997-09-01 50.2% 48.3% 51.9%
1997-10-01 50.3% 48.4% 51.9%
1997-11-01 50.4% 48.6% 52.0%
1997-12-01 50.5% 48.6% 52.3%
1998-01-01 50.6% 48.6% 52.4%
1998-02-01 50.8% 48.7% 52.6%
1998-03-01 50.9% 48.8% 52.9%
1998-04-01 51.2% 48.9% 53.3%
1998-05-01 51.3% 49.0% 53.4%
1998-06-01 51.7% 49.5% 53.7%
1998-07-01 51.8% 49.7% 53.8%
1998-08-01 52.0% 49.9% 53.9%
1998-09-01 52.1% 50.0% 54.0%
1998-10-01 52.2% 50.1% 54.1%
1998-11-01 52.4% 50.1% 54.4%
1998-12-01 52.4% 50.1% 54.6%
1999-01-01 52.5% 50.1% 54.7%
1999-02-01 52.6% 50.1% 54.8%
1999-03-01 52.7% 50.2% 54.9%
1999-04-01 52.6% 50.3% 54.7%
1999-05-01 52.8% 50.4% 55.0%
1999-06-01 52.8% 50.3% 55.0%
1999-07-01 52.7% 50.3% 54.9%
1999-08-01 52.6% 50.1% 54.8%
1999-09-01 52.6% 50.0% 54.9%
1999-10-01 52.4% 49.9% 54.7%
1999-11-01 52.4% 49.8% 54.7%
1999-12-01 52.2% 49.7% 54.5%
2000-01-01 52.1% 49.6% 54.4%
2000-02-01 52.0% 49.5% 54.3%
2000-03-01 51.9% 49.4% 54.1%
2000-04-01 51.8% 49.3% 54.0%
2000-05-01 51.8% 49.4% 54.0%
2000-06-01 51.6% 49.2% 53.7%
2000-07-01 51.7% 49.1% 54.0%
2000-08-01 51.8% 49.2% 54.1%
2000-09-01 51.7% 49.1% 54.0%
2000-10-01 51.6% 48.8% 54.1%
2000-11-01 51.5% 48.6% 54.1%
2000-12-01 51.5% 48.4% 54.1%
2001-01-01 51.5% 48.5% 54.1%
2001-02-01 51.6% 48.7% 54.1%
2001-03-01 51.7% 49.0% 54.1%
2001-04-01 51.7% 49.2% 54.0%
2001-05-01 51.9% 49.5% 53.9%
2001-06-01 52.1% 49.8% 54.1%
2001-07-01 52.3% 50.2% 54.1%
2001-08-01 53.0% 50.9% 54.8%
2001-09-01 53.0% 51.0% 54.9%
2001-10-01 53.0% 51.2% 54.7%
2001-11-01 52.9% 51.1% 54.5%
2001-12-01 53.0% 51.3% 54.5%
2002-01-01 53.0% 51.2% 54.5%
2002-02-01 53.0% 51.2% 54.7%
2002-03-01 53.0% 51.3% 54.6%
2002-04-01 53.1% 51.2% 54.7%
2002-05-01 52.9% 50.9% 54.7%
2002-06-01 52.9% 50.9% 54.7%
2002-07-01 53.1% 51.1% 54.8%
2002-08-01 53.0% 51.3% 54.7%
2002-09-01 53.2% 51.5% 54.7%
2002-10-01 53.4% 51.6% 55.1%
2002-11-01 53.6% 51.6% 55.4%
2002-12-01 53.7% 51.6% 55.6%
2003-01-01 53.9% 51.8% 55.8%
2003-02-01 54.0% 51.9% 55.9%
2003-03-01 54.1% 51.8% 56.2%
2003-04-01 54.1% 51.6% 56.4%
2003-05-01 54.0% 51.6% 56.3%
2003-06-01 54.0% 51.4% 56.4%
2003-07-01 54.0% 51.3% 56.6%
2003-08-01 54.0% 51.1% 56.7%
2003-09-01 54.0% 51.0% 56.8%
2003-10-01 54.0% 51.0% 56.9%
2003-11-01 54.1% 51.2% 56.8%
2003-12-01 54.2% 51.2% 56.9%
2004-01-01 54.2% 51.2% 57.0%
2004-02-01 54.3% 51.3% 57.1%
2004-03-01 54.5% 51.4% 57.4%
2004-04-01 54.9% 51.8% 57.8%
2004-05-01 55.4% 52.2% 58.3%
2004-06-01 55.7% 52.6% 58.6%
2004-07-01 56.0% 52.9% 58.8%
2004-08-01 56.0% 52.8% 59.0%
2004-09-01 56.2% 52.8% 59.3%
2004-10-01 56.3% 52.9% 59.4%
2004-11-01 56.3% 52.8% 59.5%
2004-12-01 56.3% 52.8% 59.6%
2005-01-01 56.2% 52.7% 59.4%
2005-02-01 56.1% 52.4% 59.4%
2005-03-01 56.1% 52.5% 59.3%
2005-04-01 56.0% 52.6% 59.2%
2005-05-01 56.1% 52.9% 59.0%
2005-06-01 55.9% 52.6% 58.9%
2005-07-01 55.6% 52.4% 58.6%
2005-08-01 55.5% 52.3% 58.4%
2005-09-01 55.5% 52.4% 58.4%
2005-10-01 55.6% 52.6% 58.4%
2005-11-01 55.6% 52.6% 58.4%
2005-12-01 55.6% 52.6% 58.4%
2006-01-01 55.6% 52.5% 58.4%
2006-02-01 55.4% 52.3% 58.3%
2006-03-01 55.2% 51.9% 58.2%
2006-04-01 55.0% 51.7% 58.1%
2006-05-01 55.0% 51.5% 58.3%
2006-06-01 55.0% 51.5% 58.2%
2006-07-01 55.0% 51.3% 58.5%
2006-08-01 55.1% 51.3% 58.5%
2006-09-01 54.9% 51.1% 58.4%
2006-10-01 54.6% 50.8% 58.2%
2006-11-01 54.6% 50.8% 58.1%
2006-12-01 54.6% 50.9% 58.2%
2007-01-01 54.8% 51.0% 58.4%
2007-02-01 55.0% 51.2% 58.5%
2007-03-01 55.0% 51.3% 58.4%
2007-04-01 55.1% 51.4% 58.5%
2007-05-01 55.0% 51.3% 58.5%
2007-06-01 55.1% 51.3% 58.7%
2007-07-01 55.4% 51.5% 59.0%
2007-08-01 56.0% 52.3% 59.5%
2007-09-01 56.1% 52.5% 59.6%
2007-10-01 56.3% 52.8% 59.7%
2007-11-01 56.4% 52.9% 59.7%
2007-12-01 56.5% 53.1% 59.7%
2008-01-01 56.5% 53.2% 59.5%
2008-02-01 56.6% 53.3% 59.6%
2008-03-01 56.7% 53.5% 59.7%
2008-04-01 56.6% 53.3% 59.8%
2008-05-01 56.5% 53.1% 59.7%
2008-06-01 56.7% 53.6% 59.7%
2008-07-01 56.7% 53.5% 59.7%
2008-08-01 56.6% 53.4% 59.7%
2008-09-01 56.8% 53.5% 59.9%
2008-10-01 56.8% 53.5% 59.9%
2008-11-01 56.8% 53.5% 60.0%
2008-12-01 56.8% 53.5% 60.1%
2009-01-01 57.0% 53.5% 60.3%
2009-02-01 56.9% 53.5% 60.2%
2009-03-01 56.9% 53.5% 60.2%
2009-04-01 57.0% 53.6% 60.3%
2009-05-01 57.2% 53.9% 60.5%
2009-06-01 57.4% 53.9% 60.9%
2009-07-01 57.6% 54.1% 61.1%
2009-08-01 57.6% 54.2% 61.0%
2009-09-01 57.8% 54.3% 61.2%
2009-10-01 58.0% 54.4% 61.4%
2009-11-01 58.3% 54.8% 61.7%
2009-12-01 58.4% 54.9% 61.9%
2010-01-01 58.6% 55.1% 62.0%
2010-02-01 58.8% 55.3% 62.2%
2010-03-01 58.9% 55.4% 62.4%
2010-04-01 59.0% 55.3% 62.4%
2010-05-01 59.0% 55.3% 62.5%
2010-06-01 59.0% 55.3% 62.5%
2010-07-01 59.1% 55.5% 62.4%
2010-08-01 59.3% 55.6% 62.9%
2010-09-01 59.3% 55.6% 62.8%
2010-10-01 59.3% 55.6% 62.8%
2010-11-01 59.2% 55.4% 62.8%
2010-12-01 59.1% 55.4% 62.7%
2011-01-01 58.9% 55.4% 62.3%
2011-02-01 58.8% 55.5% 62.0%
2011-03-01 58.8% 55.5% 61.8%
2011-04-01 58.8% 55.6% 61.9%
2011-05-01 59.0% 55.7% 62.2%
2011-06-01 59.2% 56.0% 62.3%
2011-07-01 59.4% 56.1% 62.7%
2011-08-01 59.5% 56.2% 62.7%
2011-09-01 59.6% 56.1% 62.9%
2011-10-01 59.6% 56.2% 63.0%
2011-11-01 59.6% 56.1% 63.0%
2011-12-01 59.7% 55.9% 63.3%
2012-01-01 59.9% 55.9% 63.7%
2012-02-01 60.0% 55.8% 64.0%
2012-03-01 60.2% 56.0% 64.3%
2012-04-01 60.2% 56.1% 64.2%
2012-05-01 60.3% 56.4% 64.1%
2012-06-01 60.1% 56.2% 63.9%
2012-07-01 59.9% 55.9% 63.8%
2012-08-01 60.3% 56.2% 64.3%
2012-09-01 60.3% 56.1% 64.4%
2012-10-01 60.1% 55.8% 64.2%
2012-11-01 59.9% 55.7% 64.1%
2012-12-01 59.8% 55.6% 63.8%
2013-01-01 59.5% 55.3% 63.6%
2013-02-01 59.5% 55.2% 63.6%
2013-03-01 59.4% 55.0% 63.5%
2013-04-01 59.2% 54.9% 63.3%
2013-05-01 58.9% 54.5% 63.0%
2013-06-01 58.4% 54.2% 62.4%
2013-07-01 58.0% 53.9% 61.9%
2013-08-01 57.5% 53.4% 61.4%
2013-09-01 57.2% 53.2% 61.0%
2013-10-01 57.1% 53.2% 60.8%
2013-11-01 57.0% 53.2% 60.6%
2013-12-01 56.7% 53.0% 60.4%
2014-01-01 56.7% 53.0% 60.3%
2014-02-01 56.5% 53.0% 60.0%
2014-03-01 56.4% 52.8% 59.9%
2014-04-01 56.5% 53.0% 59.9%
2014-05-01 56.5% 53.0% 59.9%
2014-06-01 56.6% 53.0% 60.1%
2014-07-01 56.7% 53.0% 60.2%
2014-08-01 56.5% 53.0% 59.9%
2014-09-01 56.4% 52.9% 59.8%
2014-10-01 56.6% 53.1% 60.0%
2014-11-01 56.8% 53.1% 60.3%
2014-12-01 57.0% 53.5% 60.5%
2015-01-01 57.2% 53.5% 60.7%
2015-02-01 57.3% 53.6% 60.8%
2015-03-01 57.3% 53.6% 61.0%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Economic Policy Institute

* Data reflect 12-month moving averages; data for 2015 represent 12-month average from April 2014 to March 2015.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Data are for high school graduates age 17–20 who may have previous college experience.

Source: EPI analysis of basic monthly Current Population Survey microdata

 

Risks?

  • Inflation?

  • Interest Rates?

Nominal wage growth has been far below target in the recovery: Year-over-year change in private-sector nominal average hourly earnings, 2007-2016

All nonfarm employees Production/nonsupervisory workers
Mar-2007 3.59% 4.11%
Apr-2007 3.27% 3.85%
May-2007 3.73% 4.14%
Jun-2007 3.81% 4.13%
Jul-2007 3.45% 4.05%
Aug-2007 3.49% 4.04%
Sep-2007 3.28% 4.15%
Oct-2007 3.28% 3.78%
Nov-2007 3.27% 3.89%
Dec-2007 3.16% 3.81%
Jan-2008 3.11% 3.86%
Feb-2008 3.09% 3.73%
Mar-2008 3.08% 3.77%
Apr-2008 2.88% 3.70%
May-2008 3.02% 3.69%
Jun-2008 2.67% 3.62%
Jul-2008 3.00% 3.72%
Aug-2008 3.33% 3.83%
Sep-2008 3.23% 3.64%
Oct-2008 3.32% 3.92%
Nov-2008 3.64% 3.85%
Dec-2008 3.58% 3.84%
Jan-2009 3.58% 3.72%
Feb-2009 3.24% 3.65%
Mar-2009 3.13% 3.53%
Apr-2009 3.22% 3.29%
May-2009 2.84% 3.06%
Jun-2009 2.78% 2.94%
Jul-2009 2.59% 2.71%
Aug-2009 2.39% 2.64%
Sep-2009 2.34% 2.75%
Oct-2009 2.34% 2.63%
Nov-2009 2.05% 2.67%
Dec-2009 1.82% 2.50%
Jan-2010 1.95% 2.61%
Feb-2010 2.00% 2.49%
Mar-2010 1.77% 2.27%
Apr-2010 1.81% 2.43%
May-2010 1.94% 2.59%
Jun-2010 1.71% 2.53%
Jul-2010 1.85% 2.47%
Aug-2010 1.75% 2.41%
Sep-2010 1.84% 2.30%
Oct-2010 1.88% 2.51%
Nov-2010 1.65% 2.23%
Dec-2010 1.74% 2.07%
Jan-2011 1.92% 2.17%
Feb-2011 1.87% 2.12%
Mar-2011 1.87% 2.06%
Apr-2011 1.91% 2.11%
May-2011 2.00% 2.16%
Jun-2011 2.13% 2.00%
Jul-2011 2.26% 2.31%
Aug-2011 1.90% 1.99%
Sep-2011 1.94% 1.93%
Oct-2011 2.11% 1.77%
Nov-2011 2.02% 1.77%
Dec-2011 1.98% 1.77%
Jan-2012 1.75% 1.40%
Feb-2012 1.88% 1.45%
Mar-2012 2.10% 1.76%
Apr-2012 2.01% 1.76%
May-2012 1.83% 1.39%
Jun-2012 1.95% 1.54%
Jul-2012 1.77% 1.33%
Aug-2012 1.82% 1.33%
Sep-2012 1.99% 1.44%
Oct-2012 1.51% 1.28%
Nov-2012 1.90% 1.43%
Dec-2012 2.20% 1.74%
Jan-2013 2.15% 1.89%
Feb-2013 2.10% 2.04%
Mar-2013 1.93% 1.88%
Apr-2013 2.01% 1.73%
May-2013 2.01% 1.88%
Jun-2013 2.13% 2.03%
Jul-2013 1.91% 1.92%
Aug-2013 2.26% 2.18%
Sep-2013 2.04% 2.17%
Oct-2013 2.25% 2.27%
Nov-2013 2.24% 2.32%
Dec-2013 1.90% 2.16%
Jan-2014 1.94% 2.31%
Feb-2014 2.14% 2.45%
Mar-2014 2.18% 2.40%
Apr-2014 1.97% 2.40%
May-2014 2.13% 2.44%
Jun-2014 2.04% 2.34%
Jul-2014 2.09% 2.43%
Aug-2014 2.21% 2.48%
Sep-2014 2.04% 2.27%
Oct-2014 2.03% 2.27%
Nov-2014 2.11% 2.26%
Dec-2014 1.82% 1.87%
Jan-2015 2.23% 2.01%
Feb-2015 2.06% 1.71%
Mar-2015 2.18% 1.90%
Apr-2015 2.34% 2.00%
May-2015 2.34% 2.14%
Jun-2015 2.04% 1.99%
Jul-2015 2.29% 2.04%
Aug-2015 2.32% 2.08%
Sep-2015 2.40% 2.13%
Oct-2015 2.52% 2.36%
Nov-2015 2.39% 2.21%
Dec-2015 2.60% 2.61%
Jan-2016 2.50% 2.50%
Feb-2016 2.38% 2.50%
Mar-2016 2.33% 2.44%
Apr-2016 2.49% 2.53%
May-2016 2.48% 2.33%
Jun-2016 2.64% 2.48%
Jul-2016 2.72% 2.57%
Aug-2016 2.43% 2.46%
Sep-2016 2.59% 2.65%
ChartData Download data

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Economic Policy Institute

*Nominal wage growth consistent with the Federal Reserve Board's 2 percent inflation target, 1.5 percent productivity growth, and a stable labor share of income.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics public data series

Workers' share of corporate income hasn't recovered: Share of corporate-sector income received by workers over recent business cycles, 1979–2016

Labor Share
Jan-1979 79.0%
Apr-1979 79.5%
Jul-1979 80.2%
Oct-1979 80.8%
Jan-1980 81.2%
Apr-1980 82.7%
Jul-1980 81.9%
Oct-1980 80.6%
Jan-1981 80.3%
Apr-1981 80.4%
Jul-1981 79.6%
Oct-1981 80.5%
Jan-1982 81.6%
Apr-1982 81.0%
Jul-1982 81.0%
Oct-1982 81.4%
Jan-1983 81.0%
Apr-1983 79.9%
Jul-1983 79.4%
Oct-1983 79.1%
Jan-1984 77.8%
Apr-1984 78.0%
Jul-1984 78.5%
Oct-1984 78.3%
Jan-1985 78.4%
Apr-1985 78.6%
Jul-1985 78.2%
Oct-1985 79.6%
Jan-1986 79.9%
Apr-1986 80.8%
Jul-1986 81.5%
Oct-1986 81.8%
Jan-1987 81.7%
Apr-1987 80.9%
Jul-1987 80.4%
Oct-1987 80.9%
Jan-1988 80.9%
Apr-1988 80.9%
Jul-1988 80.8%
Oct-1988 80.2%
Jan-1989 80.6%
Apr-1989 80.9%
Jul-1989 80.9%
Oct-1989 81.9%
Jan-1990 81.8%
Apr-1990 81.6%
Jul-1990 82.7%
Oct-1990 83.1%
Jan-1991 82.2%
Apr-1991 82.5%
Jul-1991 82.8%
Oct-1991 83.3%
Jan-1992 83.0%
Apr-1992 83.1%
Jul-1992 83.6%
Oct-1992 83.0%
Jan-1993 83.5%
Apr-1993 82.7%
Jul-1993 82.7%
Oct-1993 81.4%
Jan-1994 81.4%
Apr-1994 81.3%
Jul-1994 80.6%
Oct-1994 80.3%
Jan-1995 80.6%
Apr-1995 80.4%
Jul-1995 79.5%
Oct-1995 79.7%
Jan-1996 79.1%
Apr-1996 79.1%
Jul-1996 79.2%
Oct-1996 79.3%
Jan-1997 79.0%
Apr-1997 78.9%
Jul-1997 78.3%
Oct-1997 78.5%
Jan-1998 79.9%
Apr-1998 79.9%
Jul-1998 79.8%
Oct-1998 80.4%
Jan-1999 80.3%
Apr-1999 80.6%
Jul-1999 81.0%
Oct-1999 81.4%
Jan-2000 81.8%
Apr-2000 81.9%
Jul-2000 82.4%
Oct-2000 83.1%
Jan-2001 83.1%
Apr-2001 82.8%
Jul-2001 83.0%
Oct-2001 84.0%
Jan-2002 82.0%
Apr-2002 81.8%
Jul-2002 81.8%
Oct-2002 80.9%
Jan-2003 80.3%
Apr-2003 80.1%
Jul-2003 79.8%
Oct-2003 79.9%
Jan-2004 78.8%
Apr-2004 78.7%
Jul-2004 78.6%
Oct-2004 78.5%
Jan-2005 77.0%
Apr-2005 76.9%
Jul-2005 77.2%
Oct-2005 76.0%
Jan-2006 75.5%
Apr-2006 75.4%
Jul-2006 74.7%
Oct-2006 76.1%
Jan-2007 77.3%
Apr-2007 76.9%
Jul-2007 78.3%
Oct-2007 79.4%
Jan-2008 79.8%
Apr-2008 79.7%
Jul-2008 80.1%
Oct-2008 83.7%
Jan-2009 79.8%
Apr-2009 79.4%
Jul-2009 78.4%
Oct-2009 77.4%
Jan-2010 76.4%
Apr-2010 76.7%
Jul-2010 74.9%
Oct-2010 74.9%
Jan-2011 77.1%
Apr-2011 76.0%
Jul-2011 76.0%
Oct-2011 74.2%
Jan-2012 74.6%
Apr-2012 74.2%
Jul-2012 73.9%
Oct-2012 74.6%
Jan-2013 74.0%
Apr-2013 73.6%
Jul-2013 73.5%
Oct-2013 73.8%
Jan-2014 75.9%
Apr-2014 74.5%
Jul-2014 73.6%
Oct-2014 74.2%
Jan-2015 75.7%
Apr-2015 75.5%
Jul-2015 75.8%
Oct-2015 76.7%
Jan-2016 77.5%
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Economic Policy Institute

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Federal Reserve banks' corporate profits were netted out in the calculation of labor share.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (Tables 1.14 and 6.16D)

Projected public debt as a share of GDP, FY2015–FY2026

Year Current law President’s budget CPC budget
2015 73.65% 73.65% 73.65%
2016 75.58% 76.40% 77.21%
2017 75.73% 76.51% 76.54%
2018 75.74% 76.14% 74.21%
2019 76.69% 76.45% 72.90%
2020 77.78% 76.53% 71.77%
2021 78.84% 76.41% 70.68%
2022 80.29% 76.57% 70.01%
2023 81.65% 76.71% 69.29%
2024 82.84% 76.64% 68.42%
2025 84.34% 76.79% 67.90%
2026 86.11% 77.01% 67.57%
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Economic Policy Institute

Note: For the president's budget, this figure uses CBO's projections of GDP. Data for 2015 represent actual spending.

Source: EPI Policy Center analysis of Congressional Budget Office, Citizens for Tax Justice, Joint Committee on Taxation, Office of Management and Budget, and Tax Policy Center data

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