No sign that today’s inflation explained by macro overheating: Actual (real) GDP, potential GDP, and potential GDP adjusted for labor input
| potential, CBO | potential, adjusted | actual | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017q1 | 95.05338 | 95.05338 | 93.20036 |
| 2017q2 | 95.44483 | 95.44483 | 93.72207 |
| 2017q3 | 95.84964 | 95.84964 | 94.39607 |
| 2017q4 | 96.26489 | 96.26489 | 95.28377 |
| 2018q1 | 96.6945 | 96.6945 | 96.01065 |
| 2018q2 | 97.14174 | 97.14174 | 96.81129 |
| 2018q3 | 97.60403 | 97.60403 | 97.27787 |
| 2018q4 | 98.07278 | 98.07278 | 97.49494 |
| 2019q1 | 98.54796 | 98.54796 | 98.07776 |
| 2019q2 | 99.03018 | 99.03018 | 98.85544 |
| 2019q3 | 99.51412 | 99.51412 | 99.53309 |
| 2019q4 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2020q1 | 100.4859 | 99.93349 | 98.69642 |
| 2020q2 | 100.9555 | 87.86179 | 89.87567 |
| 2020q3 | 101.394 | 94.14647 | 96.65907 |
| 2020q4 | 101.8525 | 96.42712 | 97.73708 |
| 2021q1 | 102.325 | 97.63822 | 99.23626 |
| 2021q2 | 102.8199 | 99.24633 | 100.8645 |
| 2021q3 | 103.3339 | 101.069 | 101.3691 |
Source: Potential output from Congressional Budget Office (CBO), GDP from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and potential GDP adjustment undertaken using the index of aggregate weekly hours from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)).
Most important aspect of potential output has largely recovered: Index of aggregate weekly hours
| Index of Aggregate weekly hours | |
|---|---|
| 2017q1 | 95.7 |
| 2017q2 | 96.2 |
| 2017q3 | 96.7 |
| 2017q4 | 97.3 |
| 2018q1 | 97.7 |
| 2018q2 | 98.3 |
| 2018q3 | 98.6 |
| 2018q4 | 99.0 |
| 2019q1 | 99.3 |
| 2019q2 | 99.4 |
| 2019q3 | 99.7 |
| 2019q4 | 100.0 |
| 2020q1 | 99.9 |
| 2020q2 | 87.4 |
| 2020q3 | 93.2 |
| 2020q4 | 95.1 |
| 2021q1 | 95.8 |
| 2021q2 | 96.9 |
| 2021q3 | 98.2 |
| 2021q4 | 99.3 |
Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES) from the BLS.
Shock in Composition of Demand: 6-quarter change in % of GDP Accounted for by Durables, Non-oil non-durables, and Residential Investment (other)
| 2021 Q2 | Max, post-1979 | Max, post-1959 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durable goods | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| Non-oil, non-durable goods | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% |
| RI, improvements | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Sum | 3.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
Source: BEA NIPA data.
Supply-chain disruption historically high: Global supply chain pressure index
| sd from average | |
|---|---|
| 1997-09-01 | -0.49 |
| 1997-10-01 | -0.18 |
| 1997-11-01 | -0.46 |
| 1997-12-01 | -0.83 |
| 1998-01-01 | -0.94 |
| 1998-02-01 | -0.55 |
| 1998-03-01 | -0.31 |
| 1998-04-01 | -0.25 |
| 1998-05-01 | -0.53 |
| 1998-06-01 | -0.75 |
| 1998-07-01 | -0.82 |
| 1998-08-01 | -0.88 |
| 1998-09-01 | -0.93 |
| 1998-10-01 | -0.72 |
| 1998-11-01 | -0.97 |
| 1998-12-01 | -0.96 |
| 1999-01-01 | -0.49 |
| 1999-02-01 | -0.24 |
| 1999-03-01 | -0.39 |
| 1999-04-01 | -0.48 |
| 1999-05-01 | -0.64 |
| 1999-06-01 | -0.61 |
| 1999-07-01 | -0.91 |
| 1999-08-01 | -0.67 |
| 1999-09-01 | -0.58 |
| 1999-10-01 | -0.33 |
| 1999-11-01 | -0.26 |
| 1999-12-01 | -0.13 |
| 2000-01-01 | -0.59 |
| 2000-02-01 | -0.43 |
| 2000-03-01 | -0.33 |
| 2000-04-01 | 0.02 |
| 2000-05-01 | 0.17 |
| 2000-06-01 | -0.06 |
| 2000-07-01 | -0.04 |
| 2000-08-01 | -0.05 |
| 2000-09-01 | 0.00 |
| 2000-10-01 | -0.58 |
| 2000-11-01 | -0.75 |
| 2000-12-01 | -0.88 |
| 2001-01-01 | -0.96 |
| 2001-02-01 | -0.74 |
| 2001-03-01 | -0.72 |
| 2001-04-01 | -1.08 |
| 2001-05-01 | -1.17 |
| 2001-06-01 | -0.76 |
| 2001-07-01 | -0.86 |
| 2001-08-01 | -0.71 |
| 2001-09-01 | -0.66 |
| 2001-10-01 | -1.02 |
| 2001-11-01 | -1.04 |
| 2001-12-01 | -0.95 |
| 2002-01-01 | -0.83 |
| 2002-02-01 | -0.40 |
| 2002-03-01 | -0.48 |
| 2002-04-01 | -0.57 |
| 2002-05-01 | -0.42 |
| 2002-06-01 | -0.64 |
| 2002-07-01 | -1.00 |
| 2002-08-01 | -0.91 |
| 2002-09-01 | -0.90 |
| 2002-10-01 | -1.06 |
| 2002-11-01 | -0.82 |
| 2002-12-01 | -0.56 |
| 2003-01-01 | -0.50 |
| 2003-02-01 | -0.31 |
| 2003-03-01 | -0.08 |
| 2003-04-01 | -0.44 |
| 2003-05-01 | -0.15 |
| 2003-06-01 | -0.17 |
| 2003-07-01 | -0.14 |
| 2003-08-01 | -0.22 |
| 2003-09-01 | -0.15 |
| 2003-10-01 | -0.48 |
| 2003-11-01 | -0.49 |
| 2003-12-01 | -0.33 |
| 2004-01-01 | -0.50 |
| 2004-02-01 | -0.23 |
| 2004-03-01 | 0.31 |
| 2004-04-01 | 0.66 |
| 2004-05-01 | 0.70 |
| 2004-06-01 | 0.54 |
| 2004-07-01 | -0.43 |
| 2004-08-01 | 0.30 |
| 2004-09-01 | 0.10 |
| 2004-10-01 | -0.57 |
| 2004-11-01 | -0.08 |
| 2004-12-01 | 0.01 |
| 2005-01-01 | -0.18 |
| 2005-02-01 | -0.28 |
| 2005-03-01 | -0.31 |
| 2005-04-01 | -1.49 |
| 2005-05-01 | -1.15 |
| 2005-06-01 | -0.91 |
| 2005-07-01 | -0.89 |
| 2005-08-01 | -0.77 |
| 2005-09-01 | 0.04 |
| 2005-10-01 | 0.16 |
| 2005-11-01 | -0.46 |
| 2005-12-01 | -0.54 |
| 2006-01-01 | -0.36 |
| 2006-02-01 | -0.59 |
| 2006-03-01 | -0.31 |
| 2006-04-01 | 0.16 |
| 2006-05-01 | 0.04 |
| 2006-06-01 | 0.34 |
| 2006-07-01 | -0.04 |
| 2006-08-01 | 0.25 |
| 2006-09-01 | -0.56 |
| 2006-10-01 | -0.38 |
| 2006-11-01 | -0.22 |
| 2006-12-01 | -0.43 |
| 2007-01-01 | -0.77 |
| 2007-02-01 | -0.72 |
| 2007-03-01 | -0.54 |
| 2007-04-01 | -0.76 |
| 2007-05-01 | -0.23 |
| 2007-06-01 | -0.28 |
| 2007-07-01 | -0.35 |
| 2007-08-01 | -0.10 |
| 2007-09-01 | -0.21 |
| 2007-10-01 | -0.75 |
| 2007-11-01 | -0.65 |
| 2007-12-01 | -0.13 |
| 2008-01-01 | -0.47 |
| 2008-02-01 | 0.43 |
| 2008-03-01 | 0.19 |
| 2008-04-01 | 0.17 |
| 2008-05-01 | 0.01 |
| 2008-06-01 | 0.26 |
| 2008-07-01 | 0.89 |
| 2008-08-01 | 0.28 |
| 2008-09-01 | -0.41 |
| 2008-10-01 | -0.61 |
| 2008-11-01 | -1.57 |
| 2008-12-01 | -0.96 |
| 2009-01-01 | -0.47 |
| 2009-02-01 | -0.30 |
| 2009-03-01 | 0.17 |
| 2009-04-01 | 0.45 |
| 2009-05-01 | -0.03 |
| 2009-06-01 | -0.68 |
| 2009-07-01 | -0.81 |
| 2009-08-01 | -1.20 |
| 2009-09-01 | -0.59 |
| 2009-10-01 | -0.61 |
| 2009-11-01 | -0.85 |
| 2009-12-01 | -0.55 |
| 2010-01-01 | -0.22 |
| 2010-02-01 | 0.02 |
| 2010-03-01 | 0.48 |
| 2010-04-01 | 0.51 |
| 2010-05-01 | 0.79 |
| 2010-06-01 | 0.26 |
| 2010-07-01 | 0.20 |
| 2010-08-01 | 0.44 |
| 2010-09-01 | 0.44 |
| 2010-10-01 | 0.60 |
| 2010-11-01 | 0.54 |
| 2010-12-01 | 0.89 |
| 2011-01-01 | 0.87 |
| 2011-02-01 | 0.40 |
| 2011-03-01 | 0.89 |
| 2011-04-01 | 1.73 |
| 2011-05-01 | 0.99 |
| 2011-06-01 | 0.13 |
| 2011-07-01 | 0.15 |
| 2011-08-01 | -0.09 |
| 2011-09-01 | -0.44 |
| 2011-10-01 | -0.26 |
| 2011-11-01 | 0.24 |
| 2011-12-01 | 0.11 |
| 2012-01-01 | 0.52 |
| 2012-02-01 | 0.06 |
| 2012-03-01 | -0.28 |
| 2012-04-01 | -0.25 |
| 2012-05-01 | -0.60 |
| 2012-06-01 | -0.63 |
| 2012-07-01 | -0.69 |
| 2012-08-01 | -0.11 |
| 2012-09-01 | -0.21 |
| 2012-10-01 | 0.07 |
| 2012-11-01 | -0.30 |
| 2012-12-01 | -0.03 |
| 2013-01-01 | 0.08 |
| 2013-02-01 | -0.16 |
| 2013-03-01 | -0.44 |
| 2013-04-01 | -0.60 |
| 2013-05-01 | -0.82 |
| 2013-06-01 | -0.56 |
| 2013-07-01 | -0.62 |
| 2013-08-01 | -0.54 |
| 2013-09-01 | -0.26 |
| 2013-10-01 | -0.11 |
| 2013-11-01 | -0.65 |
| 2013-12-01 | -0.46 |
| 2014-01-01 | -0.55 |
| 2014-02-01 | -0.27 |
| 2014-03-01 | -0.61 |
| 2014-04-01 | -0.90 |
| 2014-05-01 | -0.89 |
| 2014-06-01 | -0.68 |
| 2014-07-01 | -0.79 |
| 2014-08-01 | -0.55 |
| 2014-09-01 | -0.65 |
| 2014-10-01 | -0.45 |
| 2014-11-01 | -0.67 |
| 2014-12-01 | -0.22 |
| 2015-01-01 | -0.44 |
| 2015-02-01 | -0.14 |
| 2015-03-01 | -0.25 |
| 2015-04-01 | -0.36 |
| 2015-05-01 | -0.36 |
| 2015-06-01 | -0.64 |
| 2015-07-01 | -0.26 |
| 2015-08-01 | -0.51 |
| 2015-09-01 | -0.33 |
| 2015-10-01 | -0.32 |
| 2015-11-01 | -0.50 |
| 2015-12-01 | -0.45 |
| 2016-01-01 | -0.66 |
| 2016-02-01 | -0.68 |
| 2016-03-01 | -0.66 |
| 2016-04-01 | -0.28 |
| 2016-05-01 | -0.53 |
| 2016-06-01 | -0.23 |
| 2016-07-01 | -0.08 |
| 2016-08-01 | 0.10 |
| 2016-09-01 | -0.20 |
| 2016-10-01 | 0.18 |
| 2016-11-01 | -0.09 |
| 2016-12-01 | 0.04 |
| 2017-01-01 | 0.27 |
| 2017-02-01 | 0.14 |
| 2017-03-01 | 0.22 |
| 2017-04-01 | 0.14 |
| 2017-05-01 | -0.01 |
| 2017-06-01 | 0.22 |
| 2017-07-01 | 0.26 |
| 2017-08-01 | 0.52 |
| 2017-09-01 | 0.71 |
| 2017-10-01 | 1.03 |
| 2017-11-01 | 0.89 |
| 2017-12-01 | 0.84 |
| 2018-01-01 | 0.73 |
| 2018-02-01 | 0.28 |
| 2018-03-01 | 0.62 |
| 2018-04-01 | 0.76 |
| 2018-05-01 | 0.68 |
| 2018-06-01 | 0.72 |
| 2018-07-01 | 0.76 |
| 2018-08-01 | 0.67 |
| 2018-09-01 | 0.61 |
| 2018-10-01 | 0.69 |
| 2018-11-01 | 0.58 |
| 2018-12-01 | 0.57 |
| 2019-01-01 | 0.66 |
| 2019-02-01 | 0.29 |
| 2019-03-01 | 0.33 |
| 2019-04-01 | 0.11 |
| 2019-05-01 | -0.53 |
| 2019-06-01 | -0.53 |
| 2019-07-01 | -0.41 |
| 2019-08-01 | -0.18 |
| 2019-09-01 | 0.26 |
| 2019-10-01 | 0.15 |
| 2019-11-01 | 0.18 |
| 2019-12-01 | 0.15 |
| 2020-01-01 | 0.05 |
| 2020-02-01 | 1.48 |
| 2020-03-01 | 3.18 |
| 2020-04-01 | 3.86 |
| 2020-05-01 | 2.88 |
| 2020-06-01 | 2.30 |
| 2020-07-01 | 2.78 |
| 2020-08-01 | 1.36 |
| 2020-09-01 | 0.61 |
| 2020-10-01 | 0.19 |
| 2020-11-01 | 0.99 |
| 2020-12-01 | 1.95 |
| 2021-01-01 | 1.97 |
| 2021-02-01 | 2.42 |
| 2021-03-01 | 2.74 |
| 2021-04-01 | 3.25 |
| 2021-05-01 | 3.57 |
| 2021-06-01 | 3.40 |
| 2021-07-01 | 3.48 |
| 2021-08-01 | 3.53 |
| 2021-09-01 | 3.85 |
| 2021-10-01 | 4.37 |
| 2021-11-01 | 4.34 |
| 2021-12-01 | 4.25 |
Source: Data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York – index aggregates measure of shipping costs, delivery times, and other measures of supply functioning.
Year-over-year inflation measures potentially misleading right now: Annualized change in all-items CPI over various time horizons
| Level | Last month change | |
|---|---|---|
| Year-over-year | 7.1% | 0.2% |
| 2-year change | 4.2% | 0.2% |
| Monthly change | 5.8% | -4.0% |
Source: Data from Consumer Price Index (CPI) program from the BLS.
When labor markets amplify or dampen inflationary shocks: Annualized change in prices and unit labor costs, nonfinancial corporate sector
| Prices | ULC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1973-1979 | 7.0% | 7.4% |
| 2020Q4-2021Q3 | 7.0% | 1.5% |
Source: Data from Table 1.15 from the BEA NIPA.
Pre- and Post-tax profit margins hit record highs in past year
| Profit-margin, pre | Profit-margin, post | |
|---|---|---|
| 1979Q1 | 14.7% | 9.0% |
| 1979Q2 | 14.3% | 8.5% |
| 1979Q3 | 13.1% | 7.8% |
| 1979Q4 | 12.6% | 7.3% |
| 1980Q1 | 12.0% | 6.2% |
| 1980Q2 | 9.9% | 5.7% |
| 1980Q3 | 10.6% | 5.8% |
| 1980Q4 | 11.7% | 6.8% |
| 1981Q1 | 11.9% | 7.3% |
| 1981Q2 | 11.6% | 7.6% |
| 1981Q3 | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| 1981Q4 | 11.4% | 7.8% |
| 1982Q1 | 10.3% | 7.3% |
| 1982Q2 | 10.8% | 7.8% |
| 1982Q3 | 10.5% | 7.5% |
| 1982Q4 | 9.6% | 7.1% |
| 1983Q1 | 10.4% | 7.6% |
| 1983Q2 | 11.6% | 8.3% |
| 1983Q3 | 12.4% | 8.6% |
| 1983Q4 | 12.9% | 9.0% |
| 1984Q1 | 14.2% | 9.9% |
| 1984Q2 | 13.9% | 9.7% |
| 1984Q3 | 13.4% | 9.9% |
| 1984Q4 | 13.6% | 10.1% |
| 1985Q1 | 13.3% | 9.8% |
| 1985Q2 | 12.8% | 9.6% |
| 1985Q3 | 13.6% | 10.0% |
| 1985Q4 | 12.1% | 8.7% |
| 1986Q1 | 11.1% | 7.7% |
| 1986Q2 | 10.5% | 7.2% |
| 1986Q3 | 9.8% | 6.6% |
| 1986Q4 | 9.8% | 6.0% |
| 1987Q1 | 10.1% | 6.3% |
| 1987Q2 | 10.8% | 6.7% |
| 1987Q3 | 11.6% | 7.4% |
| 1987Q4 | 11.1% | 7.2% |
| 1988Q1 | 11.4% | 7.5% |
| 1988Q2 | 11.1% | 7.3% |
| 1988Q3 | 11.2% | 7.2% |
| 1988Q4 | 11.7% | 7.7% |
| 1989Q1 | 10.7% | 6.4% |
| 1989Q2 | 10.2% | 6.5% |
| 1989Q3 | 10.0% | 6.6% |
| 1989Q4 | 9.2% | 5.7% |
| 1990Q1 | 9.3% | 6.0% |
| 1990Q2 | 9.7% | 6.2% |
| 1990Q3 | 8.8% | 5.2% |
| 1990Q4 | 8.6% | 5.2% |
| 1991Q1 | 9.1% | 5.9% |
| 1991Q2 | 9.2% | 6.2% |
| 1991Q3 | 9.0% | 6.2% |
| 1991Q4 | 8.8% | 6.0% |
| 1992Q1 | 9.0% | 6.1% |
| 1992Q2 | 9.3% | 6.1% |
| 1992Q3 | 9.1% | 6.1% |
| 1992Q4 | 9.8% | 6.7% |
| 1993Q1 | 9.7% | 6.5% |
| 1993Q2 | 10.5% | 7.1% |
| 1993Q3 | 10.6% | 7.5% |
| 1993Q4 | 11.9% | 8.0% |
| 1994Q1 | 12.1% | 8.6% |
| 1994Q2 | 12.6% | 8.9% |
| 1994Q3 | 13.0% | 8.9% |
| 1994Q4 | 13.6% | 9.3% |
| 1995Q1 | 12.9% | 9.0% |
| 1995Q2 | 13.1% | 9.3% |
| 1995Q3 | 13.9% | 9.9% |
| 1995Q4 | 14.1% | 10.1% |
| 1996Q1 | 14.5% | 10.5% |
| 1996Q2 | 14.5% | 10.4% |
| 1996Q3 | 14.5% | 10.4% |
| 1996Q4 | 14.7% | 10.7% |
| 1997Q1 | 14.8% | 10.9% |
| 1997Q2 | 14.8% | 10.8% |
| 1997Q3 | 15.3% | 11.1% |
| 1997Q4 | 14.6% | 10.6% |
| 1998Q1 | 13.2% | 9.3% |
| 1998Q2 | 13.1% | 9.4% |
| 1998Q3 | 13.4% | 9.6% |
| 1998Q4 | 12.5% | 9.1% |
| 1999Q1 | 12.8% | 9.1% |
| 1999Q2 | 12.4% | 8.9% |
| 1999Q3 | 11.6% | 8.1% |
| 1999Q4 | 11.0% | 7.5% |
| 2000Q1 | 10.4% | 6.8% |
| 2000Q2 | 10.2% | 6.7% |
| 2000Q3 | 9.5% | 6.4% |
| 2000Q4 | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| 2001Q1 | 7.9% | 5.6% |
| 2001Q2 | 8.1% | 5.8% |
| 2001Q3 | 7.8% | 5.8% |
| 2001Q4 | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| 2002Q1 | 8.5% | 6.8% |
| 2002Q2 | 9.1% | 7.4% |
| 2002Q3 | 9.5% | 7.6% |
| 2002Q4 | 10.6% | 8.6% |
| 2003Q1 | 10.8% | 8.3% |
| 2003Q2 | 11.2% | 8.9% |
| 2003Q3 | 11.8% | 9.3% |
| 2003Q4 | 12.2% | 9.5% |
| 2004Q1 | 13.5% | 10.3% |
| 2004Q2 | 14.1% | 10.9% |
| 2004Q3 | 14.5% | 11.0% |
| 2004Q4 | 14.2% | 10.7% |
| 2005Q1 | 15.0% | 10.3% |
| 2005Q2 | 15.8% | 11.4% |
| 2005Q3 | 14.9% | 10.4% |
| 2005Q4 | 16.8% | 11.9% |
| 2006Q1 | 17.0% | 12.2% |
| 2006Q2 | 16.9% | 11.8% |
| 2006Q3 | 18.1% | 13.0% |
| 2006Q4 | 16.7% | 12.0% |
| 2007Q1 | 15.5% | 10.8% |
| 2007Q2 | 15.7% | 11.0% |
| 2007Q3 | 13.9% | 9.7% |
| 2007Q4 | 13.7% | 9.8% |
| 2008Q1 | 12.5% | 8.8% |
| 2008Q2 | 12.4% | 8.7% |
| 2008Q3 | 14.2% | 10.7% |
| 2008Q4 | 11.9% | 9.8% |
| 2009Q1 | 11.2% | 9.0% |
| 2009Q2 | 10.4% | 7.8% |
| 2009Q3 | 11.2% | 8.5% |
| 2009Q4 | 13.1% | 10.0% |
| 2010Q1 | 14.5% | 11.4% |
| 2010Q2 | 14.7% | 11.6% |
| 2010Q3 | 16.5% | 13.1% |
| 2010Q4 | 15.6% | 12.2% |
| 2011Q1 | 14.1% | 10.8% |
| 2011Q2 | 16.0% | 12.8% |
| 2011Q3 | 16.3% | 13.4% |
| 2011Q4 | 16.8% | 13.4% |
| 2012Q1 | 16.7% | 13.3% |
| 2012Q2 | 17.1% | 13.5% |
| 2012Q3 | 16.3% | 12.7% |
| 2012Q4 | 16.6% | 13.0% |
| 2013Q1 | 17.4% | 13.7% |
| 2013Q2 | 17.3% | 13.7% |
| 2013Q3 | 16.8% | 13.1% |
| 2013Q4 | 16.6% | 12.9% |
| 2014Q1 | 15.1% | 11.3% |
| 2014Q2 | 16.8% | 12.8% |
| 2014Q3 | 17.9% | 14.0% |
| 2014Q4 | 17.9% | 14.0% |
| 2015Q1 | 16.6% | 12.7% |
| 2015Q2 | 16.1% | 12.4% |
| 2015Q3 | 16.7% | 13.0% |
| 2015Q4 | 14.6% | 11.4% |
| 2016Q1 | 16.0% | 12.7% |
| 2016Q2 | 14.7% | 11.3% |
| 2016Q3 | 14.7% | 11.4% |
| 2016Q4 | 14.0% | 11.0% |
| 2017Q1 | 14.5% | 11.9% |
| 2017Q2 | 14.6% | 12.0% |
| 2017Q3 | 14.1% | 11.4% |
| 2017Q4 | 14.2% | 11.6% |
| 2018Q1 | 14.5% | 12.4% |
| 2018Q2 | 14.8% | 12.5% |
| 2018Q3 | 15.3% | 13.0% |
| 2018Q4 | 15.8% | 13.4% |
| 2019Q1 | 14.1% | 11.9% |
| 2019Q2 | 14.6% | 12.3% |
| 2019Q3 | 14.6% | 12.6% |
| 2019Q4 | 14.9% | 12.6% |
| 2020Q1 | 13.2% | 11.5% |
| 2020Q2 | 13.1% | 11.1% |
| 2020Q3 | 17.7% | 15.2% |
| 2020Q4 | 15.8% | 13.4% |
| 2021q1 | 16.9% | 14.3% |
| 2021q2 | 19.0% | 16.1% |
| 2021q3 | 18.7% | 15.8% |
Source: Data from Table 1.15 from the BEA NIPA.
U.S. employers not used to rapid recoveries: Non-farm payroll employment relative to previous peak
| 1990 | 2001 | 2007 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 98.9 |
| 2 | 99.8 | 99.8 | 99.9 | 85.3 |
| 3 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 87.2 |
| 4 | 99.6 | 99.6 | 99.6 | 90.4 |
| 5 | 99.4 | 99.5 | 99.5 | 91.5 |
| 6 | 99.4 | 99.4 | 99.3 | 92.5 |
| 7 | 99.3 | 99.2 | 99.1 | 93.0 |
| 8 | 99.0 | 99.0 | 98.8 | 93.5 |
| 9 | 98.8 | 98.8 | 98.5 | 93.6 |
| 10 | 98.6 | 98.6 | 97.9 | 93.4 |
| 11 | 98.5 | 98.5 | 97.4 | 93.6 |
| 12 | 98.6 | 98.5 | 96.9 | 93.9 |
| 13 | 98.6 | 98.4 | 96.3 | 94.4 |
| 14 | 98.6 | 98.4 | 95.7 | 94.6 |
| 15 | 98.6 | 98.4 | 95.2 | 95.0 |
| 16 | 98.6 | 98.4 | 95.0 | 95.7 |
| 17 | 98.6 | 98.3 | 94.7 | 96.4 |
| 18 | 98.6 | 98.3 | 94.4 | 96.7 |
| 19 | 98.6 | 98.3 | 94.3 | 96.9 |
| 20 | 98.6 | 98.4 | 94.1 | 97.4 |
| 21 | 98.6 | 98.4 | 94.0 | 97.5 |
| 22 | 98.8 | 98.3 | 94.0 | 97.7 |
| 23 | 98.9 | 98.3 | 93.8 | |
| 24 | 99.0 | 98.2 | 93.8 | |
| 25 | 99.0 | 98.1 | 93.7 | |
| 26 | 99.2 | 98.0 | 93.8 | |
| 27 | 99.2 | 98.0 | 94.0 | |
| 28 | 99.3 | 98.0 | 94.4 | |
| 29 | 99.5 | 98.0 | 94.3 | |
| 30 | 99.7 | 98.0 | 94.2 | |
| 31 | 99.9 | 98.1 | 94.2 | |
| 32 | 100.2 | 98.2 | 94.2 | |
| 33 | 98.3 | 94.4 | ||
| 34 | 98.3 | 94.5 | ||
| 35 | 98.5 | 94.5 | ||
| 36 | 98.5 | 94.5 | ||
| 37 | 98.8 | 94.7 | ||
| 38 | 99.0 | 94.9 | ||
| 39 | 99.2 | 95.1 | ||
| 40 | 99.2 | 95.2 | ||
| 41 | 99.3 | 95.3 | ||
| 42 | 99.4 | 95.4 | ||
| 43 | 99.5 | 95.5 | ||
| 44 | 99.7 | 95.6 | ||
| 45 | 99.8 | 95.8 | ||
| 46 | 99.9 | 95.9 | ||
| 47 | 100.0 | 96.0 | ||
| 48 | 100.2 | 96.3 | ||
| 49 | 96.5 | |||
| 50 | 96.6 | |||
| 51 | 96.7 | |||
| 52 | 96.8 | |||
| 53 | 96.8 | |||
| 54 | 96.9 | |||
| 55 | 97.1 | |||
| 56 | 97.2 | |||
| 57 | 97.3 | |||
| 58 | 97.4 | |||
| 59 | 97.6 | |||
| 60 | 97.7 | |||
| 61 | 97.9 | |||
| 62 | 98.0 | |||
| 63 | 98.2 | |||
| 64 | 98.3 | |||
| 65 | 98.5 | |||
| 66 | 98.5 | |||
| 67 | 98.7 | |||
| 68 | 98.9 | |||
| 69 | 99.0 | |||
| 70 | 99.2 | |||
| 71 | 99.3 | |||
| 72 | 99.4 | |||
| 73 | 99.5 | |||
| 74 | 99.7 | |||
| 75 | 99.9 | |||
| 76 | 100.1 |
Source: BLS CES data on non-farm payrolls.
Measuring the job shortfall since February 2020: Actual and counterfactual employment, January 2019–November 2024
| date | Actual nonfarm payroll employment | Employment if it had continued growing at the pre-recession level | Employment if it had grown with population growth since February 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-2019 | 151.4 | NA | NA |
| Oct-2019 | 151.5 | NA | NA |
| Nov-2019 | 151.7 | NA | NA |
| Dec-2019 | 151.8 | NA | NA |
| Jan-2020 | 152.0 | NA | NA |
| Feb-2020 | 152.3 | 152.3 | 152.3 |
| Mar-2020 | 150.9 | 152.5 | 152.4 |
| Apr-2020 | 130.4 | 152.7 | 152.5 |
| May-2020 | 133.0 | 152.9 | 152.6 |
| Jun-2020 | 137.7 | 153.1 | 152.7 |
| Jul-2020 | 139.2 | 153.2 | 152.8 |
| Aug-2020 | 140.8 | 153.4 | 152.9 |
| Sep-2020 | 141.8 | 153.6 | 153.0 |
| Oct-2020 | 142.5 | 153.8 | 153.1 |
| Nov-2020 | 142.8 | 154.0 | 153.2 |
| Dec-2020 | 142.5 | 154.2 | 153.3 |
| Jan-2021 | 142.9 | 154.4 | 153.4 |
| Feb-2021 | 143.4 | 154.6 | 153.5 |
| Mar-2021 | 144.3 | 154.7 | 153.6 |
| Apr-2021 | 144.6 | 154.9 | 153.7 |
| May-2021 | 145.0 | 155.1 | 153.8 |
| Jun-2021 | 145.8 | 155.3 | 153.9 |
| Jul-2021 | 146.8 | 155.5 | 154.0 |
| Aug-2021 | 147.2 | 155.7 | 154.1 |
| Sep-2021 | 147.7 | 155.9 | 154.2 |
| Oct-2021 | 148.6 | 156.0 | 154.3 |
| Nov-2021 | 149.2 | 156.2 | 154.4 |
| Dec-2021 | 149.8 | 156.4 | 154.5 |
| Jan-2022 | 150.0 | 156.6 | 154.6 |
| Feb-2022 | 150.9 | 156.8 | 154.7 |
| Mar-2022 | 151.4 | 157.0 | 154.8 |
| Apr-2022 | 151.6 | 157.2 | 154.9 |
| May-2022 | 151.9 | 157.4 | 155.0 |
| Jun-2022 | 152.3 | 157.5 | 155.1 |
| Jul-2022 | 153.0 | 157.7 | 155.2 |
| Aug-2022 | 153.3 | 157.9 | 155.3 |
| Sep-2022 | 153.5 | 158.1 | 155.4 |
| Oct-2022 | 153.9 | 158.3 | 155.5 |
| Nov-2022 | 154.2 | 158.5 | 155.6 |
| Dec-2022 | 154.3 | 158.7 | 155.7 |
| Jan-2023 | 154.8 | 158.8 | 155.8 |
| Feb-2023 | 155.1 | 159.0 | 155.9 |
| Mar-2023 | 155.2 | 159.2 | 156.0 |
| Apr-2023 | 155.5 | 159.4 | 156.1 |
| May-2023 | 155.8 | 159.6 | 156.2 |
| Jun-2023 | 156.0 | 159.8 | 156.3 |
| Jul-2023 | 156.2 | 160.0 | 156.4 |
| Aug-2023 | 156.4 | 160.2 | 156.5 |
| Sep-2023 | 156.7 | 160.3 | 156.6 |
| Oct-2023 | 156.8 | 160.5 | 156.7 |
| Nov-2023 | 157.0 | 160.7 | 156.8 |
| Dec-2023 | 157.3 | 160.9 | 156.9 |
| Jan-2024 | 157.5 | 161.1 | 157.0 |
| Feb-2024 | 157.8 | 161.3 | 157.1 |
| Mar-2024 | 158.1 | 161.5 | 157.2 |
| Apr-2024 | 158.2 | 161.7 | 157.3 |
| May-2024 | 158.4 | 161.8 | 157.4 |
| Jun-2024 | 158.5 | 162.0 | 157.6 |
| Jul-2024 | 158.7 | 162.2 | 157.7 |
| Aug-2024 | 158.8 | 162.4 | 157.8 |
| Sep-2024 | 159.0 | 162.6 | 157.9 |
| Oct-2024 | 159.1 | 162.8 | 158.0 |
| Nov-2024 | 159.3 | 163.0 | 158.1 |
Notes: Payroll employment growth averaged 202,000 in the 12 months leading up to the pandemic recession. Population-adjusted employment growth applies population growth in the latest month since February 2020 to payroll employment and interpolates in the intervening years.
Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey public data series.
Employment change by industry since February 2020: All employees (thousands), seasonally adjusted, July 2023
| Industry | Employment change since February 2020 |
|---|---|
| Professional and business services | 1595 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 935.8 |
| Education and health services | 832 |
| Construction | 363 |
| Financial activities | 294 |
| Manufacturing | 200 |
| Wholesale trade | 170.9 |
| Information | 166 |
| Retail services | 22.6 |
| Utilities | 9.6 |
| Mining and logging | -43 |
| Other services | -53 |
| Government | -170 |
| Leisure and hospitality | -352 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Current Employment Statistics, Establishment Survey (CES) public data series.
Private-sector employment fell further but rebounded faster than state and local government jobs: Percent change in payrolls since February 2020, for all private and state and local government employment
| Total private-sector employment | State and local employment | |
|---|---|---|
| Feb-2020 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Mar-2020 | -1.30% | -0.40% |
| Apr-2020 | -16.50% | -5.20% |
| May-2020 | -13.90% | -7.70% |
| Jun-2020 | -10.20% | -7.50% |
| Jul-2020 | -9.00% | -6.60% |
| Aug-2020 | -8.20% | -5.30% |
| Sep-2020 | -7.50% | -6.20% |
| Oct-2020 | -6.70% | -6.80% |
| Nov-2020 | -6.50% | -6.90% |
| Dec-2020 | -6.70% | -7.00% |
| Jan-2021 | -6.60% | -6.40% |
| Feb-2021 | -6.10% | -6.90% |
| Mar-2021 | -5.50% | -6.60% |
| Apr-2021 | -5.40% | -6.40% |
| May-2021 | -4.90% | -6.10% |
| Jun-2021 | -4.30% | -5.30% |
| Jul-2021 | -3.70% | -3.90% |
| Aug-2021 | -3.30% | -4.00% |
| Sep-2021 | -3.00% | -4.20% |
| Oct-2021 | -2.40% | -4.60% |
| Nov-2021 | -2.20% | -4.70% |
| Dec-2021 | -2.00% | -4.70% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Current Employment Statistics, Establishment Survey (CES) public data series.
Over long periods of time, household and establishment surveys are fairly consistent: Percent change in employment since February 2020, using the Current Employment Survey and Current Population Survey
| CPS Employment | CES Employment | |
|---|---|---|
| Feb-2020 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Mar-2020 | -2.10% | -1.10% |
| Apr-2020 | -16.10% | -14.70% |
| May-2020 | -13.60% | -12.80% |
| Jun-2020 | -10.50% | -9.60% |
| Jul-2020 | -9.50% | -8.50% |
| Aug-2020 | -7.40% | -7.50% |
| Sep-2020 | -7.10% | -7.00% |
| Oct-2020 | -5.80% | -6.50% |
| Nov-2020 | -5.70% | -6.40% |
| Dec-2020 | -5.70% | -6.60% |
| Jan-2021 | -5.60% | -6.40% |
| Feb-2021 | -5.30% | -6.10% |
| Mar-2021 | -5.00% | -5.60% |
| Apr-2021 | -4.80% | -5.40% |
| May-2021 | -4.60% | -5.00% |
| Jun-2021 | -4.60% | -4.30% |
| Jul-2021 | -3.90% | -3.60% |
| Aug-2021 | -3.60% | -3.30% |
| Sep-2021 | -3.20% | -3.10% |
| Oct-2021 | -2.90% | -2.60% |
| Nov-2021 | -2.20% | -2.50% |
| Dec-2021 | -1.80% | -2.30% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Current Employment Statistics, Establishment Survey (CES) public data series, Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey (CPS), public data series
Unemployment rate of workers age 16 and older by race and ethnicity, January 2020–November 2024
| Date | White | Black | Hispanic | AAPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-2020 | 3.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3% |
| Feb-2020 | 3% | 6% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Mar-2020 | 3.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% |
| Apr-2020 | 14.1% | 16.6% | 18.8% | 14.4% |
| May-2020 | 12.3% | 16.8% | 17.6% | 14.8% |
| Jun-2020 | 10.0% | 15.2% | 14.5% | 13.8% |
| Jul-2020 | 9.2% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 11.9% |
| Aug-2020 | 7.4% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| Sep-2020 | 7.0% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.9% |
| Oct-2020 | 6.0% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% |
| Nov-2020 | 6.0% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% |
| Dec-2020 | 6.1% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.1% |
| Jan-2021 | 5.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% |
| Feb-2021 | 5.5% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 5.1% |
| Mar-2021 | 5.3% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% |
| Apr-2021 | 5.3% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% |
| May-2021 | 5.1% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% |
| Jun-2021 | 5.3% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% |
| Jul-2021 | 4.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% |
| Aug-2021 | 4.5% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% |
| Sep-2021 | 4.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% |
| Oct-2021 | 3.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Nov-2021 | 3.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% |
| Dec-2021 | 3.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% |
| Jan-2022 | 3.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% |
| Feb-2022 | 3.3% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% |
| Mar-2022 | 3.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Apr-2022 | 3.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% |
| May-2022 | 3.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| Jun-2022 | 3.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3% |
| Jul-2022 | 3.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Aug-2022 | 3.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Sep-2022 | 3.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Oct-2022 | 3.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% |
| Nov-2022 | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4% | 2.6% |
| Dec-2022 | 3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| Jan-2023 | 3.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Feb-2023 | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.4% |
| Mar-2023 | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| Apr-2023 | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| May-2023 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4 | 2.9 |
| Jun-2023 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 |
| Jul-2023 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.3 |
| Aug-2023 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.1 |
| Sept-2023 | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| Oct-2023 | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% |
| Nov-2023 | 3.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% |
| Dec-2023 | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% |
| Jan-2024 | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Feb-2024 | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.4% |
| Mar-2024 | 3.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Apr-2024 | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| May-2024 | 3.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.1% |
| Jun-2024 | 3.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% |
| Jul-2024 | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% |
| Aug-2024 | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| Sept-2024 | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% |
| Oct-2024 | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% |
| Nov-2024 | 3.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% |
Note: AAPI refers to Asian American and Pacific Islander. Racial and ethnic categories are not mutually exclusive; white and Black data do not exclude Latinx workers of each race.
Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey public data.
Hires are greater than quits in all sectors while lower wage sectors experience higher levels of quits and hires: Hires and quits rates by major sector, November 2021
Notes: The private-sector hourly wage rates correspond with the size of the bubbles (the smaller the bubble, the lower the wage rate). The 45-degree line represents where hires rates are equal to quits rates.
Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and Current Employment Survey public data series.
Spike in people not working as Omicron surges in early January: People not working because they have or were caring for someone with Covid, in millions
| Date | Weighted population (millions) |
|---|---|
| 2020-05-05 | 1.31 |
| 2020-05-12 | 1.81 |
| 2020-05-19 | 1.93 |
| 2020-05-26 | 1.64 |
| 2020-06-02 | 1.73 |
| 2020-06-09 | 1.86 |
| 2020-06-16 | 2.06 |
| 2020-06-23 | 2.35 |
| 2020-06-30 | 2.79 |
| 2020-07-07 | 3.06 |
| 2020-07-14 | 3.90 |
| 2020-07-21 | 3.81 |
| 2020-07-28 | NA |
| 2020-08-04 | NA |
| 2020-08-11 | NA |
| 2020-08-18 | NA |
| 2020-08-25 | NA |
| 2020-08-31 | 2.70 |
| 2020-09-01 | NA |
| 2020-09-08 | NA |
| 2020-09-14 | 2.20 |
| 2020-09-15 | NA |
| 2020-09-22 | NA |
| 2020-09-28 | 2.39 |
| 2020-09-29 | NA |
| 2020-10-06 | NA |
| 2020-10-12 | 2.54 |
| 2020-10-13 | NA |
| 2020-10-20 | NA |
| 2020-10-26 | 2.95 |
| 2020-10-27 | NA |
| 2020-11-03 | NA |
| 2020-11-09 | 4.21 |
| 2020-11-10 | NA |
| 2020-11-17 | NA |
| 2020-11-23 | 4.82 |
| 2020-11-24 | NA |
| 2020-12-01 | NA |
| 2020-12-07 | 5.88 |
| 2020-12-08 | NA |
| 2020-12-15 | NA |
| 2020-12-21 | 6.59 |
| 2020-12-22 | NA |
| 2020-12-29 | NA |
| 2021-01-05 | NA |
| 2021-01-12 | NA |
| 2021-01-18 | 6.65 |
| 2021-01-19 | NA |
| 2021-01-26 | NA |
| 2021-02-01 | 5.90 |
| 2021-02-02 | NA |
| 2021-02-09 | NA |
| 2021-02-15 | 4.30 |
| 2021-02-16 | NA |
| 2021-02-23 | NA |
| 2021-03-01 | 3.52 |
| 2021-03-02 | NA |
| 2021-03-09 | NA |
| 2021-03-15 | 3.12 |
| 2021-03-16 | NA |
| 2021-03-23 | NA |
| 2021-03-29 | 2.63 |
| 2021-03-30 | NA |
| 2021-04-06 | NA |
| 2021-04-13 | NA |
| 2021-04-20 | NA |
| 2021-04-26 | 2.49 |
| 2021-04-27 | NA |
| 2021-05-04 | NA |
| 2021-05-10 | 2.14 |
| 2021-05-11 | NA |
| 2021-05-18 | NA |
| 2021-05-24 | 1.89 |
| 2021-05-25 | NA |
| 2021-06-01 | NA |
| 2021-06-07 | 2.11 |
| 2021-06-08 | NA |
| 2021-06-15 | NA |
| 2021-06-21 | 1.75 |
| 2021-06-22 | NA |
| 2021-06-29 | NA |
| 2021-07-05 | 1.78 |
| 2021-07-06 | NA |
| 2021-07-13 | NA |
| 2021-07-20 | NA |
| 2021-07-27 | NA |
| 2021-08-02 | 2.02 |
| 2021-08-03 | NA |
| 2021-08-10 | NA |
| 2021-08-16 | 2.94 |
| 2021-08-17 | NA |
| 2021-08-24 | NA |
| 2021-08-30 | 3.95 |
| 2021-08-31 | NA |
| 2021-09-07 | NA |
| 2021-09-13 | 4.65 |
| 2021-09-14 | NA |
| 2021-09-21 | NA |
| 2021-09-27 | 4.20 |
| 2021-09-28 | NA |
| 2021-10-05 | NA |
| 2021-10-11 | 3.72 |
| 2021-10-12 | NA |
| 2021-10-19 | NA |
| 2021-10-26 | NA |
| 2021-11-02 | NA |
| 2021-11-09 | NA |
| 2021-11-16 | NA |
| 2021-11-23 | NA |
| 2021-11-30 | NA |
| 2021-12-07 | NA |
| 2021-12-13 | 2.96 |
| 2022-01-10 | 8.75 |
Note: Population sample for people 18 and over who have not worked in the last 7 days.
Source: Authors’ analysis of microdata from the Household Pulse Survey (HHPS) from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Leisure and hospitality employment growth in 2021 and vaccination rates: January to October 2021 change in employment and October 2021 COVID-19 vaccination rates
| State | Vaccination rate | Change in employment rate |
|---|---|---|
| AL | 43.8% | 7.2% |
| AK | 51.7% | 7.7% |
| AZ | 52.2% | 14.4% |
| AR | 46.8% | 3.1% |
| CA | 60.2% | 36.0% |
| CO | 60.6% | 23.6% |
| CT | 69.8% | 13.7% |
| DE | 58.9% | 6.8% |
| DC | 61.3% | 50.5% |
| FL | 58.7% | 13.4% |
| GA | 46.9% | 5.9% |
| HI | 59.0% | 26.0% |
| ID | 42.8% | 5.5% |
| IL | 54.8% | 26.8% |
| IN | 49.2% | 4.9% |
| IA | 54.8% | 11.4% |
| KS | 52.3% | 8.4% |
| KY | 53.4% | 1.5% |
| LA | 46.6% | 4.7% |
| ME | 69.5% | 5.7% |
| MD | 65.2% | 11.0% |
| MA | 68.8% | 20.7% |
| MI | 52.9% | 29.3% |
| MN | 59.1% | 28.4% |
| MS | 44.7% | 3.6% |
| MO | 49.0% | 9.6% |
| MT | 49.5% | 6.4% |
| NE | 55.5% | 7.9% |
| NV | 51.9% | 12.9% |
| NH | 62.3% | 15.4% |
| NJ | 65.5% | 10.9% |
| NM | 63.8% | 27.5% |
| NY | 65.3% | 21.2% |
| NC | 51.5% | 8.8% |
| ND | 45.2% | 10.6% |
| OH | 51.1% | 6.7% |
| OK | 48.9% | 2.9% |
| OR | 62.0% | 26.9% |
| PA | 59.3% | 13.8% |
| RI | 69.7% | 12.4% |
| SC | 48.8% | 5.3% |
| SD | 52.3% | 6.2% |
| TN | 46.7% | 7.8% |
| TX | 52.4% | 8.5% |
| UT | 52.3% | 9.0% |
| VT | 70.4% | 21.3% |
| VA | 61.9% | 6.0% |
| WA | 62.4% | 29.0% |
| WV | 40.8% | 10.7% |
| WI | 57.5% | 12.1% |
| WY | 42.9% | 2.0% |
Note: Line is a linear fit of the employment change on the vaccination rate, weighted by 2019 average leisure and hospitality employment.
Source: Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Survey (CES) and Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
No association between more fiscal relief and core inflation acceleration
| Inflation | Fiscal relief | |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 0.06789125 | 18.37375271 |
| Austria | 0.633108167 | 11.66189412 |
| Belgium | 0.516666 | 8.222936896 |
| Canada | 0.551540667 | 15.88277046 |
| Chile | 2.4693405 | 14.0961954 |
| Costa Rica | -1.340543333 | 1.5 |
| Czech Republic | 4.15632175 | 9.604767956 |
| Denmark | 0.8430608 | 3.455743247 |
| Estonia | 2.532124417 | 5.8 |
| Finland | 1.488068942 | 4.272892601 |
| France | 0.394343308 | 9.583735008 |
| Germany | 1.401139308 | 13.63835285 |
| Greece | -0.33823845 | 21.07210227 |
| Hungary | 1.799466833 | 10.50824443 |
| Iceland | 1.642888583 | 9.249744985 |
| Ireland | 3.119180592 | 10.31361015 |
| Israel | 1.092786217 | 10.1 |
| Italy | 0.424176175 | 10.89855564 |
| Japan | -1.562953483 | 16.46834717 |
| Korea | 1.667513925 | 4.484902484 |
| Latvia | -0.166025167 | 8.7 |
| Lithuania | 2.174415417 | 7.497 |
| Luxembourg | 0.078539083 | 4.209344745 |
| Mexico | 0.7071905 | 0.654423967 |
| The Netherlands | -0.187322167 | 10.30457984 |
| New Zealand | -0.279066 | 19.28367812 |
| Norway | -1.5773455 | 7.402294317 |
| Poland | 2.55 | 6.463386978 |
| Portugal | 0.5812056 | 5.630875374 |
| Slovak Republic | 3.893570667 | 4.438161474 |
| Slovenia | -0.246019083 | 7.7 |
| Spain | 0.247616875 | 7.578688738 |
| Sweden | 0.044634083 | 4.180506601 |
| Switzerland | 0.294712933 | 7.773072114 |
| Turkey | 1.90799525 | 2.7 |
| United Kingdom | 1.408333333 | 16.24023041 |
| United States | 2.371270417 | 25.44975175 |
Notes: The acceleration in inflation is measured as the difference between inflation over the 12 months ending October 2021 relative to average inflation in 2019. The countries included are: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. All countries with both inflation data from the OECD and COVID-19 fiscal response data from the IMF are included. Data on both cumulative COVID-19 cases per million and the acceleration in core inflation is transformed into an index with the average value of each equal to 1.
Source: Data on COVID-19 case rates from ourworldindata.org/covid-cases. Inflation data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Larger COVID-19 shock correlates with faster core price acceleration
| Inflation | Covid cases per million | |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 0.073821882 | 0.071036861 |
| Austria | 1.015731419 | 0.662442023 |
| Belgium | 1.285955391 | 0.540604731 |
| Canada | 0.498668812 | 0.577095249 |
| Chile | 0.970940577 | 2.583752671 |
| Costa Rica | 1.199189101 | -1.402654846 |
| Czechia | 1.809975697 | 4.348896972 |
| Denmark | 0.741821974 | 0.88212241 |
| Estonia | 1.620889462 | 2.64944556 |
| Finland | 0.315031634 | 1.557015771 |
| France | 1.183009625 | 0.412614452 |
| Germany | 0.605278952 | 1.466058419 |
| Greece | 0.792506242 | -0.353910082 |
| Hungary | 0.998060265 | 1.882841689 |
| Iceland | 0.439897774 | 1.719008685 |
| Ireland | 0.98941134 | 3.263701861 |
| Israel | 1.571640617 | 1.143418377 |
| Italy | 0.869554881 | 0.443829567 |
| Japan | 0.150224781 | -1.635369945 |
| South Korea | 0.078850099 | 1.744774995 |
| Latvia | 1.294983787 | -0.173717625 |
| Lithuania | 1.678085686 | 2.275162798 |
| Luxembourg | 1.414593074 | 0.082178042 |
| Mexico | 0.321317823 | 0.73995682 |
| Netherlands | 1.395392907 | -0.196001381 |
| New Zealand | 0.014430577 | -0.29199599 |
| Norway | 0.419615701 | -1.650428788 |
| Poland | 0.881359884 | 2.668149375 |
| Portugal | 1.179764618 | 0.60813465 |
| Slovakia | 1.816032755 | 4.073971819 |
| Slovenia | 1.782866311 | -0.257417907 |
| Spain | 1.178545751 | 0.259089729 |
| Sweden | 1.267630207 | 0.046702118 |
| Switzerland | 1.106375252 | 0.308367894 |
| Turkey | 1.04215497 | 1.996398562 |
| United Kingdom | 1.473274995 | 1.473585766 |
| United States | 1.523115172 | 2.481138698 |
Notes: Core inflation acceleration measured as the percentage change in core prices (excluding food and energy) between October 2021 and October 2020 minus the average change in year-over-year prices through 2019. This attempts to normalize core inflation relative to pre-COVID19 norms for these countries. Data on both cumulative COVID-19 cases per million and the acceleration in core inflation is transformed into an index with the average value of each equal to 1.
Source: Data on COVID-19 case rates from ourworldindata.org/covid-cases. Inflation data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Inflation acceleration higher in country-groups with larger COVID-19 shock
| Inflation | |
|---|---|
| High | 1.468722 |
| Medium | 1.009634 |
| Low | 0.384308 |
Notes: Countries grouped into those with the 12 highest, the 12 lowest, and the 13 intermediate cumulative COVID-19 case counts. Bars display average core price acceleration by these groupings. Core inflation acceleration measured as the percentage change in core prices (excluding food and energy) between October 2021 and October 2020 minus the average change in year-over-year prices through 2019. This attempts to normalize core inflation relative to pre-COVID19 norms for these countries. Data on both cumulative COVID-19 cases per million and the acceleration in core inflation is transformed into an index with the average value of each equal to 1.
Source: Data on COVID-19 case rates from ourworldindata.org/covid-cases. Inflation data is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).