Figure B
Even adjusted for pandemic scarring, recent output gaps are entirely unremarkable: Output gap, standard and adjusted for post-pandemic outcomes for labor force participation, capital investment and productivity trends, 1950–present
| Output gap (adjusted) | Output gap (July 2023 vintage) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1950q1 | -1.4% | |
| 1950q2 | 0.2% | |
| 1950q3 | 2.8% | |
| 1950q4 | 3.4% | |
| 1951q1 | 3.5% | |
| 1951q2 | 3.9% | |
| 1951q3 | 4.7% | |
| 1951q4 | 3.5% | |
| 1952q1 | 3.1% | |
| 1952q2 | 1.7% | |
| 1952q3 | 0.9% | |
| 1952q4 | 2.8% | |
| 1953q1 | 3.5% | |
| 1953q2 | 3.3% | |
| 1953q3 | 1.8% | |
| 1953q4 | -0.5% | |
| 1954q1 | -1.6% | |
| 1954q2 | -2.1% | |
| 1954q3 | -1.6% | |
| 1954q4 | -0.2% | |
| 1955q1 | 2.0% | |
| 1955q2 | 3.0% | |
| 1955q3 | 3.7% | |
| 1955q4 | 3.7% | |
| 1956q1 | 2.6% | |
| 1956q2 | 2.8% | |
| 1956q3 | 2.1% | |
| 1956q4 | 3.0% | |
| 1957q1 | 2.9% | |
| 1957q2 | 1.9% | |
| 1957q3 | 2.0% | |
| 1957q4 | 0.0% | |
| 1958q1 | -3.4% | |
| 1958q2 | -3.6% | |
| 1958q3 | -2.3% | |
| 1958q4 | -0.9% | |
| 1959q1 | 0.1% | |
| 1959q2 | 1.3% | |
| 1959q3 | 0.3% | |
| 1959q4 | -0.5% | |
| 1960q1 | 0.7% | |
| 1960q2 | -0.9% | |
| 1960q3 | -1.4% | |
| 1960q4 | -3.6% | |
| 1961q1 | -3.8% | |
| 1961q2 | -3.0% | |
| 1961q3 | -2.0% | |
| 1961q4 | -1.0% | |
| 1962q1 | -0.2% | |
| 1962q2 | -0.4% | |
| 1962q3 | -0.3% | |
| 1962q4 | -1.0% | |
| 1963q1 | -1.0% | |
| 1963q2 | -1.0% | |
| 1963q3 | 0.1% | |
| 1963q4 | -0.3% | |
| 1964q1 | 0.7% | |
| 1964q2 | 0.7% | |
| 1964q3 | 1.2% | |
| 1964q4 | 0.4% | |
| 1965q1 | 1.7% | |
| 1965q2 | 1.9% | |
| 1965q3 | 3.0% | |
| 1965q4 | 4.2% | |
| 1966q1 | 5.6% | |
| 1966q2 | 4.9% | |
| 1966q3 | 4.6% | |
| 1966q4 | 4.4% | |
| 1967q1 | 4.1% | |
| 1967q2 | 3.0% | |
| 1967q3 | 2.9% | |
| 1967q4 | 2.4% | |
| 1968q1 | 3.3% | |
| 1968q2 | 3.9% | |
| 1968q3 | 3.6% | |
| 1968q4 | 2.8% | |
| 1969q1 | 3.3% | |
| 1969q2 | 2.6% | |
| 1969q3 | 2.3% | |
| 1969q4 | 0.9% | |
| 1970q1 | -0.1% | |
| 1970q2 | -0.8% | |
| 1970q3 | -0.6% | |
| 1970q4 | -2.5% | |
| 1971q1 | -0.6% | |
| 1971q2 | -0.9% | |
| 1971q3 | -1.0% | |
| 1971q4 | -1.6% | |
| 1972q1 | -0.6% | |
| 1972q2 | 0.9% | |
| 1972q3 | 1.1% | |
| 1972q4 | 2.0% | |
| 1973q1 | 3.7% | |
| 1973q2 | 4.0% | |
| 1973q3 | 2.5% | |
| 1973q4 | 2.6% | |
| 1974q1 | 0.9% | |
| 1974q2 | 0.2% | |
| 1974q3 | -1.6% | |
| 1974q4 | -2.7% | |
| 1975q1 | -4.7% | |
| 1975q2 | -4.8% | |
| 1975q3 | -3.9% | |
| 1975q4 | -3.4% | |
| 1976q1 | -1.9% | |
| 1976q2 | -2.0% | |
| 1976q3 | -2.2% | |
| 1976q4 | -2.2% | |
| 1977q1 | -1.9% | |
| 1977q2 | -0.8% | |
| 1977q3 | 0.2% | |
| 1977q4 | -0.6% | |
| 1978q1 | -1.2% | |
| 1978q2 | 1.8% | |
| 1978q3 | 1.9% | |
| 1978q4 | 2.4% | |
| 1979q1 | 1.6% | |
| 1979q2 | 0.8% | |
| 1979q3 | 0.8% | |
| 1979q4 | 0.2% | |
| 1980q1 | -0.1% | |
| 1980q2 | -2.8% | |
| 1980q3 | -3.4% | |
| 1980q4 | -2.1% | |
| 1981q1 | -0.8% | |
| 1981q2 | -2.2% | |
| 1981q3 | -1.7% | |
| 1981q4 | -3.4% | |
| 1982q1 | -5.6% | |
| 1982q2 | -5.9% | |
| 1982q3 | -6.9% | |
| 1982q4 | -7.6% | |
| 1983q1 | -7.1% | |
| 1983q2 | -5.7% | |
| 1983q3 | -4.6% | |
| 1983q4 | -3.4% | |
| 1984q1 | -2.6% | |
| 1984q2 | -1.8% | |
| 1984q3 | -1.7% | |
| 1984q4 | -1.7% | |
| 1985q1 | -1.6% | |
| 1985q2 | -1.6% | |
| 1985q3 | -1.0% | |
| 1985q4 | -1.1% | |
| 1986q1 | -1.1% | |
| 1986q2 | -1.4% | |
| 1986q3 | -1.3% | |
| 1986q4 | -1.6% | |
| 1987q1 | -1.7% | |
| 1987q2 | -1.4% | |
| 1987q3 | -1.3% | |
| 1987q4 | -0.4% | |
| 1988q1 | -0.6% | |
| 1988q2 | -0.1% | |
| 1988q3 | -0.2% | |
| 1988q4 | 0.4% | |
| 1989q1 | 0.6% | |
| 1989q2 | 0.6% | |
| 1989q3 | 0.5% | |
| 1989q4 | -0.1% | |
| 1990q1 | 0.2% | |
| 1990q2 | -0.2% | |
| 1990q3 | -0.7% | |
| 1990q4 | -2.2% | |
| 1991q1 | -3.3% | |
| 1991q2 | -3.1% | |
| 1991q3 | -3.2% | |
| 1991q4 | -3.4% | |
| 1992q1 | -2.9% | |
| 1992q2 | -2.4% | |
| 1992q3 | -2.1% | |
| 1992q4 | -1.6% | |
| 1993q1 | -2.1% | |
| 1993q2 | -2.2% | |
| 1993q3 | -2.3% | |
| 1993q4 | -1.6% | |
| 1994q1 | -1.3% | |
| 1994q2 | -0.6% | |
| 1994q3 | -0.7% | |
| 1994q4 | -0.2% | |
| 1995q1 | -0.5% | |
| 1995q2 | -0.8% | |
| 1995q3 | -0.6% | |
| 1995q4 | -0.6% | |
| 1996q1 | -0.5% | |
| 1996q2 | 0.4% | |
| 1996q3 | 0.5% | |
| 1996q4 | 0.7% | |
| 1997q1 | 0.4% | |
| 1997q2 | 1.2% | |
| 1997q3 | 1.5% | |
| 1997q4 | 1.4% | |
| 1998q1 | 1.5% | |
| 1998q2 | 1.5% | |
| 1998q3 | 1.7% | |
| 1998q4 | 2.3% | |
| 1999q1 | 2.2% | |
| 1999q2 | 1.8% | |
| 1999q3 | 1.9% | |
| 1999q4 | 2.3% | |
| 2000q1 | 1.5% | |
| 2000q2 | 2.2% | |
| 2000q3 | 1.3% | |
| 2000q4 | 1.1% | |
| 2001q1 | -0.1% | |
| 2001q2 | -0.2% | |
| 2001q3 | -1.3% | |
| 2001q4 | -1.7% | |
| 2002q1 | -1.6% | |
| 2002q2 | -1.7% | |
| 2002q3 | -2.0% | |
| 2002q4 | -2.5% | |
| 2003q1 | -2.7% | |
| 2003q2 | -2.4% | |
| 2003q3 | -1.3% | |
| 2003q4 | -0.8% | |
| 2004q1 | -0.8% | |
| 2004q2 | -0.6% | |
| 2004q3 | -0.3% | |
| 2004q4 | 0.0% | |
| 2005q1 | 0.5% | |
| 2005q2 | 0.4% | |
| 2005q3 | 0.6% | |
| 2005q4 | 0.6% | |
| 2006q1 | 1.4% | |
| 2006q2 | 1.0% | |
| 2006q3 | 0.6% | |
| 2006q4 | 0.9% | |
| 2007q1 | 0.7% | |
| 2007q2 | 0.9% | |
| 2007q3 | 1.0% | |
| 2007q4 | 1.1% | |
| 2008q1 | 0.3% | |
| 2008q2 | 0.4% | |
| 2008q3 | -0.6% | |
| 2008q4 | -3.2% | |
| 2009q1 | -4.7% | |
| 2009q2 | -5.2% | |
| 2009q3 | -5.2% | |
| 2009q4 | -4.5% | |
| 2010q1 | -4.3% | |
| 2010q2 | -3.6% | |
| 2010q3 | -3.2% | |
| 2010q4 | -3.0% | |
| 2011q1 | -3.6% | |
| 2011q2 | -3.4% | |
| 2011q3 | -4.0% | |
| 2011q4 | -3.4% | |
| 2012q1 | -3.1% | |
| 2012q2 | -3.1% | |
| 2012q3 | -3.4% | |
| 2012q4 | -3.7% | |
| 2013q1 | -3.2% | |
| 2013q2 | -3.5% | |
| 2013q3 | -3.2% | |
| 2013q4 | -2.9% | |
| 2014q1 | -3.7% | |
| 2014q2 | -2.9% | |
| 2014q3 | -2.3% | |
| 2014q4 | -2.3% | |
| 2015q1 | -2.0% | |
| 2015q2 | -1.9% | |
| 2015q3 | -2.1% | |
| 2015q4 | -2.4% | |
| 2016q1 | -2.3% | |
| 2016q2 | -2.4% | |
| 2016q3 | -2.1% | |
| 2016q4 | -2.0% | |
| 2017q1 | -2.0% | |
| 2017q2 | -2.0% | |
| 2017q3 | -1.6% | |
| 2017q4 | -1.2% | |
| 2018q1 | -1.0% | |
| 2018q2 | -0.8% | |
| 2018q3 | -0.5% | |
| 2018q4 | -0.8% | |
| 2019q1 | -0.7% | |
| 2019q2 | -0.5% | |
| 2019q3 | -0.1% | |
| 2019q4 | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 2020q1 | -1.9% | -1.8% |
| 2020q2 | -10.0% | -10.5% |
| 2020q3 | -4.4% | -3.8% |
| 2020q4 | -4.7% | -3.3% |
| 2021q1 | -3.2% | -2.3% |
| 2021q2 | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| 2021q3 | -1.4% | -0.9% |
| 2021q4 | -0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2022q1 | -0.9% | -0.7% |
| 2022q2 | -0.2% | -1.3% |
| 2022q3 | 0.3% | -0.9% |
| 2022q4 | 1.2% | -0.7% |
| 2023q1 | 2.2% | -0.9% |
| 2023q2 | 1.5% | -0.9% |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Products Accounts (NIPA) data, Congressional Budget Office data on potential output, and author’s calculations as explained in Banerjee and Bivens (2023).
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