Figure A
Unemployment rate, actual and adjusted for age/education changes
| Unemployment, actual | Unemployment, 2000 weights | |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| 1996 | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| 1997 | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| 1998 | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| 1999 | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 2000 | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| 2001 | 4.7% | 4.8% |
| 2002 | 5.8% | 5.9% |
| 2003 | 6.0% | 6.1% |
| 2004 | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| 2005 | 5.1% | 5.3% |
| 2006 | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| 2007 | 4.6% | 4.9% |
| 2008 | 5.8% | 6.2% |
| 2009 | 9.3% | 9.8% |
| 2010 | 9.6% | 10.3% |
| 2011 | 8.9% | 9.6% |
| 2012 | 8.1% | 8.8% |
| 2013 | 7.4% | 8.1% |
| 2014 | 6.2% | 6.8% |
| 2015 | 5.3% | 5.9% |
| 2016 | 4.9% | 5.4% |
| 2017 | 4.4% | 4.9% |
| 2018 | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| 2019 | 3.7% | 4.2% |
| 2020 | 8.1% | 8.7% |
Notes: The adjusted unemployment rate is created by calculating 15 age and education cells (5 education categories and 3 age bins), calculating cell-specific unemployment rates, and holding 2000 cell-shares constant over time. Note that a positive output gap implies that the economy is operating above its long-run potential.
Source: Author’s calculations using data from the EPI extracts from the Current Population Survey (CPS).
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