The Raise the Wage Act would significantly reduce poverty, especially for children: Range of estimates of the number of children and nonelderly adults who would no longer be in poverty in 2025 if the Raise the Wage Act of 2021 is passed
| Scenario | Children | Adults | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low estimate | 0.63417781 | 1.132334 | 0 |
| High estimate | 1.323126 | 2.3624609 | 0 |
Notes: Using already scheduled state and local minimum wage increases, we estimate the employment-weighted minimum wage would be $11.53 in 2025 without the Raise the Wage Act, or $15.19 with the Raise the Wage Act, a log difference of 0.276. We apply that difference to the range of long-run poverty rate elasticities in Table 7 of Dube (2019b), or -0.220 to -0.459, and to the nonelderly poverty rates in Table B-1 of Census (2020).
Source: Authors’ calculations from Census (2020), Dube (2019b), and projected state, local, and federal minimum wages in 2025.
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