Appendix Table 1

Estimated effects of proposed minimum-wage increase, fully phased-in, by state

State Total estimated workers1 Directly affected2 Indirectly affected3 Total affected Increased wages for directly and indirectly affected4 GDP impact5 Jobs impact: Full-time employment (job years)
United States 129,359,000 21,267,000 8,997,000 30,264,000 51,490,800,296 32,593,676,587 140,000
Alabama 1,835,000 355,000 122,000 478,000  $ 882,818,744  $ 558,824,265 2,400
Alaska 303,000 33,000 16,000 48,000  $ 72,578,109  $ 45,941,943 200
Arizona 2,465,000 389,000 189,000 578,000  $ 901,746,432  $ 570,805,492 2,500
Arkansas 1,171,000 258,000 97,000 356,000  $ 744,617,091  $ 471,342,618 1,800
California 14,681,000 2,402,000 1,039,000 3,441,000  $ 5,370,477,594  $ 3,399,512,317 16,300
Colorado 2,194,000 288,000 124,000 412,000  $ 684,527,456  $ 433,305,880 1,800
Connecticut 1,563,000 181,000 95,000 276,000  $ 341,187,298  $ 215,971,560 1,100
Delaware 384,000 64,000 23,000 87,000  $ 157,830,938  $ 99,906,984 400
District of Columbia 313,000 22,000 14,000 36,000  $ 58,289,640  $ 36,897,342 200
Florida 7,706,000 1,219,000 617,000 1,835,000  $ 3,044,695,392  $ 1,927,292,183 8,400
Georgia 3,968,000 703,000 241,000 944,000  $ 1,909,560,857  $ 1,208,752,022 4,800
Hawaii 545,000 71,000 42,000 113,000  $ 173,665,324  $ 109,930,150 500
Idaho 622,000 123,000 42,000 165,000  $ 290,590,335  $ 183,943,682 800
Illinois 5,569,000 838,000 389,000 1,228,000  $ 1,776,660,025  $ 1,124,625,796 5,700
Indiana 2,740,000 479,000 208,000 687,000  $ 1,148,106,315  $ 726,751,297 3,000
Iowa 1,412,000 240,000 100,000 340,000  $ 546,803,299  $ 346,126,488 1,400
Kansas 1,265,000 219,000 93,000 312,000  $ 537,034,044  $ 339,942,550 1,400
Kentucky 1,772,000 336,000 144,000 480,000  $ 862,964,264  $ 546,256,379 2,200
Louisiana 1,760,000 356,000 128,000 484,000  $ 966,067,358  $ 611,520,637 2,400
Maine 566,000 96,000 37,000 133,000  $ 206,269,168  $ 130,568,383 600
Maryland 2,670,000 317,000 155,000 472,000  $ 764,741,883  $ 484,081,612 2,000
Massachusetts 2,947,000 329,000 185,000 514,000  $ 620,563,700  $ 392,816,822 1,900
Michigan 3,838,000 746,000 271,000 1,017,000  $ 1,715,180,782  $ 1,085,709,435 4,600
Minnesota 2,502,000 360,000 137,000 497,000  $ 768,464,297  $ 486,437,900 2,000
Mississippi 1,133,000 230,000 90,000 320,000  $ 646,403,205  $ 409,173,229 1,600
Missouri 2,537,000 456,000 157,000 613,000  $ 1,101,957,751  $ 697,539,256 2,800
Montana 398,000 83,000 29,000 112,000  $ 193,251,811  $ 122,328,396 500
Nebraska 875,000 145,000 58,000 203,000  $ 329,511,371  $ 208,580,698 900
Nevada 1,115,000 165,000 92,000 257,000  $ 357,253,080  $ 226,141,200 1,200
New Hampshire 629,000 80,000 38,000 118,000  $ 156,942,704  $ 99,344,731 400
New Jersey 3,844,000 501,000 228,000 729,000  $ 1,259,407,858  $ 797,205,174 3,400
New Mexico 789,000 141,000 52,000 193,000  $ 355,974,908  $ 225,332,117 900
New York 8,038,000 1,245,000 532,000 1,777,000  $ 3,191,459,530  $ 2,020,193,882 8,300
North Carolina 3,852,000 761,000 280,000 1,041,000  $ 2,061,333,232  $ 1,304,823,936 5,300
North Dakota 333,000 43,000 21,000 64,000  $ 97,076,340  $ 61,449,323 300
Ohio 4,864,000 943,000 327,000 1,271,000  $ 2,143,766,168  $ 1,357,003,984 5,800
Oklahoma 1,548,000 296,000 103,000 399,000  $ 845,908,992  $ 535,460,392 2,100
Oregon 1,550,000 185,000 116,000 301,000  $ 291,808,085  $ 184,714,518 1,100
Pennsylvania 5,527,000 855,000 375,000 1,229,000  $ 1,890,954,037  $ 1,196,973,906 5,000
Rhode Island 461,000 72,000 31,000 103,000  $ 154,249,308  $ 97,639,812 400
South Carolina 1,789,000 320,000 167,000 486,000  $ 831,360,393  $ 526,251,129 2,200
South Dakota 356,000 62,000 31,000 93,000  $ 146,130,893  $ 92,500,855 400
Tennessee 2,630,000 497,000 202,000 699,000  $ 1,233,448,971  $ 780,773,199 3,200
Texas 10,734,000 2,093,000 806,000 2,899,000  $ 5,874,673,361  $ 3,718,668,238 14,700
Utah 1,199,000 203,000 87,000 291,000  $ 443,143,332  $ 280,509,729 1,200
Vermont 292,000 36,000 21,000 56,000  $ 61,603,921  $ 38,995,282 200
Virginia 3,647,000 530,000 228,000 758,000  $ 1,421,473,585  $ 899,792,779 3,500
Washington 2,815,000 272,000 173,000 446,000  $ 387,144,274  $ 245,062,325 2,100
West Virginia 706,000 133,000 58,000 191,000  $ 360,282,879  $ 228,059,062 900
Wisconsin 2,645,000 461,000 172,000 633,000  $ 1,019,777,821  $ 645,519,361 2,700
Wyoming 256,000 35,000 15,000 50,000  $ 89,062,140  $ 56,376,335 200

1 Total estimated workers is estimated from the CPS respondents who were 16 years old or older, employed, and for whom either a valid hourly wage is reported or one can be imputed from weekly earnings and average weekly hours. Consequently, this estimate represents the identifiable wage-earning workforce and tends to understate the size of the full workforce.

2 Directly affected workers will see their wages rise, as the new minimum-wage rate will exceed their current hourly pay.

3 Indirectly affected workers currently have a wage rate just above the new minimum wage (between the new minimum wage, and the new minimum wage plus the dollar amount of the increase over the preceding minimum wage). They will receive a raise as employer pay scales are adjusted upward to reflect the new minimum wage.

4 The annual amount of increased wages for directly and indirectly affected workers assumes they work 52 weeks a year.

5 GDP and job impact figures utilize a national model to estimate the GDP impact of workers' increased earnings. Thus, the total state stimulus may be lower than this amount because workers in each state will not necessarily spend all of their increased earnings in-state. However, we can assume that most of the increased earnings will be spent in-state, and thus most of the jobs created will be in-state. GDP figures are cumulative three-year totals, job-impact figures are the jobs created or sustained in the final year of the increases.

6 The increased economic activity from these additional wages adds not just jobs but also hours for people who already have jobs (work hours for people with jobs also dropped in the downturn). Full-time employment takes that into account by essentially taking the number of total hours added (including both hours from new jobs and more hours for people who already have jobs) and dividing by 40, to get full-time-equivalent jobs added. Jobs numbers are job years following the third-year increase. Figures assume full-time employment requires $115,000 in additional GDP.

Note: Figures may not sum to total due to rounding. Job impact estimation methods can be found in Hall and Cooper (2012) and Bivens (2011).

Source: Authors' analysis of 2012 Harkin/Miller proposal using Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata

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