Spending - Projections
Projected federal spending (as a share of GDP) with and without excess health care cost growth
| Year | Revenue | Spending with ECG | Spending without ECG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 16.6% | 19 | 19 |
| 2019 | 16.5 | 19.3 | 19.2 |
| 2020 | 16.7 | 19.1 | 19 |
| 2021 | 16.7 | 19.1 | 19.2 |
| 2022 | 16.9 | 19.6 | 19.6 |
| 2023 | 17.1 | 19.5 | 19.6 |
| 2024 | 17.3 | 19.4 | 19.3 |
| 2025 | 17.4 | 19.7 | 19.7 |
| 2026 | 17.9 | 20 | 20 |
| 2027 | 18.3 | 20.1 | 20 |
| 2028 | 18.2 | 20.6 | 20.6 |
| 2029 | 18.3 | 20.4 | 20.3 |
| 2030 | 18.3 | 20.7 | 20.4 |
| 2031 | 18.3 | 20.8 | 20.6 |
| 2032 | 18.4 | 21 | 20.8 |
| 2033 | 18.5 | 21.2 | 20.8 |
| 2034 | 18.6 | 21.4 | 20.9 |
| 2035 | 18.6 | 21.5 | 21 |
| 2036 | 18.7 | 21.7 | 21.1 |
| 2037 | 18.8 | 21.9 | 21.1 |
| 2038 | 18.9 | 22 | 21.1 |
| 2039 | 18.9 | 22.2 | 21.1 |
| 2040 | 19.0 | 22.3 | 21.1 |
| 2041 | 19.1 | 22.4 | 21.1 |
| 2042 | 19.1 | 22.5 | 21.1 |
| 2043 | 19.2 | 22.6 | 21.1 |
| 2044 | 19.3 | 22.7 | 21.2 |
| 2045 | 19.3 | 22.8 | 21.3 |
| 2046 | 19.4 | 22.9 | 21.3 |
| 2047 | 19.5 | 23 | 21.3 |
| 2048 | 19.6 | 23.1 | 21.3 |
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2018)
Congressional Budget Office (CBO), The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2018). Spending and tax revenue as shares of GDP are taken directly from the CBO 2018. CBO 2018 also provides an estimate of federal health spending in a scenario with zero “excess cost growth.” This federal health spending in the absence of excess cost growth is combined with nonhealth spending projections to yield the dashed line.
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