Private-sector job growth notably weaker in June amid rising economic uncertainty

Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report for June released this morning. Read the full thread here

Given recent economic uncertainty private-sector gains were notably weaker in June, up just 74k. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% with another drop in the labor force. The only real boost was in state+local educ—maybe a seasonal quirk. More losses in manufacturing and federal jobs.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Jul 3, 2025 at 8:02 AM

The public sector had an unusual ride in June with state and local education jobs up 63,500. I’m tempted to believe that’s due to a quirk with seasonal adjustments and the timing of the end of the school year. Federal employment continued to fall, down 69,000 jobs since January.
#NumbersDay #EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Jul 3, 2025 at 8:16 AM

The payroll survey is the gold standard but it’s hard to ignore some weakness in the household survey. The labor force fell 625k in May and another 130k in June. And yet, the prime-age employment-to-population ratio ticked up slightly in June and remains just above it’s pre-pandemic level.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Jul 3, 2025 at 8:29 AM

Black unemployment is a notably volatile series given smaller sample sizes so it’s important to watch trends over several months. That said, the increase in Black unemployment to 6.8% is hard to ignore, given it hasn’t been that high since January 2022. A key indicator to watch in coming reports.

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Jul 3, 2025 at 8:36 AM