Jobs report doesn’t reveal clear signs of broad economic weakness—yet

Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 177,000 jobs added in April. Read the full thread here

The hard data on the labor market remains far more resilient than softer measures have suggested in recent weeks. The unemployment rate held steady with a bump in labor force participation and employment. Payroll jobs grew by 177k, but losses continue in federal employment, down 26k since January.

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) May 2, 2025 at 7:41 AM

Payroll employment increased 177k, with downward revisions the past two months (total -58k for Feb+Mar). That said, April’s data is roughly in line with the 152k average over the prior 12 months. Job growth was strong in health care, manufacturing went sideways, and fed jobs fell again.
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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) May 2, 2025 at 7:52 AM

Employment in the federal govt fell 9k in April, down 26k since Jan. The devastation to the federal workforce has yet to be fully realized in these data because many workers are on administration leave (on payroll) and more recent federal UI claims data suggest further cutbacks.
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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) May 2, 2025 at 7:58 AM

Manufacturing employment, often a bellwether of coming trouble, has been pretty flat the last couple of months. While jobs aren’t up, there’s been a slight decline in weekly work hours. While not cutting workers, employers may be cutting hours of their current workforce.
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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) May 2, 2025 at 8:08 AM

The household survey appears stronger than the payroll survey for April, but I might caution touting the faster job growth.
1. the household survey is more volatile month to month
2. the concepts are slightly different and it appears that self-employment might be a leading factor behind the gains

— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) May 2, 2025 at 8:28 AM

As with the increase in household employment, the prime-age employment-to-population ratio rose in April. I’m afraid it’s not likely to continue in coming months as the effects of chaotic policy decisions filter into the hard data, but so far the labor market appears to be holding up.
#NumbersDay

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) May 2, 2025 at 8:35 AM

Overall unemployment held steady in April at 4.2%. Data for demographic groups are even more volatile than topline numbers, but unemployment rates by race/ethnicity held steady for the most part, with a drop in the Asian unemployment rate.
#NumbersDay

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) May 2, 2025 at 8:44 AM