Another weak jobs report fuels fears of a recession
Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 22,000 jobs added in August.
The labor market continues to soften, according to the latest #JobsReport out this morning from the BLS. Payroll employment grew only 22,000 in August and revisions now show employment losses for June (-13,000). Over the last three months, job growth has slowed to just 29,000 on average.
#EconSky— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Sep 5, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Job losses were particularly acute in professional/business services, the federal govt, and wholesale trade, but there have also been sustained losses over recent months in manufacturing, construction, and mining, an indication that Trump’s blue-collar renaissance is clearly not happening.
#EconSky— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Sep 5, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Federal cuts continue to cost jobs as federal employment fell another 15k in August. Federal employment is now down 97k since January. The full extent of the federal job losses won’t be seen until we get data for October after thousands more leave federal payrolls on September 30.
#EconSky— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Sep 5, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Lest anyone tells you otherwise, the monthly revisions that led to a fall in employment for June are part of the normal #JobsDay process as BLS receives additional reports from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.
— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Sep 5, 2025 at 8:24 AM
The household survey also provides useful information about labor market health. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, it’s highest since 2021. While a more volatile series, the data show sustained increases in Black unemployment over the last three months, hitting 7.5% in August.
#EconSky— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Sep 5, 2025 at 8:46 AM
The unemployment rate for young workers (16-24) also continued to increase with the latest data. Again, it’s a notably volatile series because of small sample sizes, but it’s now up just over a percentage point since March. A weak hires rate can make it harder for new entrants to find jobs.
#EconSky— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Sep 5, 2025 at 8:55 AM
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