Table 1
Trump's escalation of deportations could destroy nearly 6 million jobs: Employment losses caused by increasing deportations to 4,000,000 over four years
| Sector | Immigrant | U.S.-born | Total | Percent fall in total employment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3,316,000 | 2,571,000 | 5,887,000 | 3.6% |
| Construction | 1,405,000 | 861,000 | 2,266,000 | 18.8% |
| Child care | 104,000 | 444,000 | 548,000 | 15.1% |
Note: Calculations assume 1,000,000 deportations annually for four years.
Source: Extrapolations from East et al. (2023); Howard, Wang, and Zhang (2024); and Ali, Brown, and Herbst (2024), as described in the text. Baseline employment levels from EPI (2025) analysis of the 2024 basic monthly Current Population Survey.
Figure A
Deportations fell during the pandemic but usually exceed 300,000 people per year: Total removals by the Department of Homeland Security, by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | Removals |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 404700 |
| 2015 | 323670 |
| 2016 | 331540 |
| 2017 | 286660 |
| 2018 | 327240 |
| 2019 | 347230 |
| 2020 | 234340 |
| 2021 | 85100 |
| 2022 | 102760 |
| 2023 | 177540 |
| 2024 | 329990 |
Source: Department of Homeland Security (2025a).
Figure B
Trump's deportations will reduce employment in every state: Overall and construction employment losses for 4 million national deportations over four years, by state
| State | Total job loss | U.S.-born job loss | Immigrant job loss | Overall | Total job loss | U.S.-born job loss | Immigrant job loss | Construction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 35,000 (1.6%) | 15,000 | 20,000 | 1.6% | 17,000 (9.9%) | 7,000 | 11,000 | 9.9% |
| Alaska | 4,000 (1.2%) | 2,000 | 2,000 | 1.2% | ||||
| Arizona | 141,000 (3.9%) | 62,000 | 80,000 | 3.9% | 60,000 (21.8%) | 23,000 | 37,000 | 21.8% |
| Arkansas | 24,000 (1.8%) | 11,000 | 14,000 | 1.8% | 14,000 (12.6%) | 5,000 | 9,000 | 12.6% |
| California | 1,141,000 (6.2%) | 498,000 | 643,000 | 6.2% | 343,000 (25.5%) | 130,000 | 212,000 | 25.5% |
| Colorado | 83,000 (2.7%) | 36,000 | 47,000 | 2.7% | 67,000 (22.8%) | 25,000 | 41,000 | 22.8% |
| Connecticut | 61,000 (3.3%) | 26,000 | 34,000 | 3.3% | 20,000 (15.5%) | 7,000 | 12,000 | 15.5% |
| Delaware | 16,000 (3.4%) | 7,000 | 9,000 | 3.4% | 5,000 (16.5%) | 2,000 | 3,000 | 16.5% |
| Washington D.C. | 11,000 (2.9%) | 5,000 | 6,000 | 2.9% | ||||
| Florida | 543,000 (5.1%) | 237,000 | 306,000 | 5.1% | 198,000 (20.6%) | 75,000 | 123,000 | 20.6% |
| Georgia | 184,000 (3.5%) | 80,000 | 104,000 | 3.5% | 93,000 (24.2%) | 35,000 | 58,000 | 24.2% |
| Hawaii | 21,000 (3.2%) | 9,000 | 12,000 | 3.2% | ||||
| Idaho | 21,000 (2.1%) | 9,000 | 12,000 | 2.1% | 8,000 (9.2%) | 3,000 | 5,000 | 9.2% |
| Illinois | 219,000 (3.5%) | 96,000 | 123,000 | 3.5% | 56,000 (17.7%) | 21,000 | 35,000 | 17.7% |
| Indiana | 73,000 (2.2%) | 32,000 | 41,000 | 2.2% | 24,000 (10.0%) | 9,000 | 15,000 | 10.0% |
| Iowa | 39,000 (2.4%) | 17,000 | 22,000 | 2.4% | 17,000 (13.5%) | 6,000 | 10,000 | 13.5% |
| Kansas | 36,000 (2.4%) | 16,000 | 20,000 | 2.4% | 15,000 (15.0%) | 6,000 | 9,000 | 15.0% |
| Kentucky | 52,000 (2.6%) | 23,000 | 29,000 | 2.6% | 16,000 (12.0%) | 6,000 | 10,000 | 12.0% |
| Louisiana | 39,000 (2.0%) | 17,000 | 22,000 | 2.0% | 27,000 (17.1%) | 10,000 | 17,000 | 17.1% |
| Maine | 5,000 (0.7%) | 2,000 | 3,000 | 0.7% | ||||
| Maryland | 115,000 (3.7%) | 50,000 | 65,000 | 3.7% | 45,000 (18.6%) | 17,000 | 28,000 | 18.6% |
| Massachusetts | 148,000 (4.0%) | 65,000 | 84,000 | 4.0% | 44,000 (16.5%) | 17,000 | 27,000 | 16.5% |
| Michigan | 78,000 (1.6%) | 34,000 | 44,000 | 1.6% | 15,000 (5.3%) | 6,000 | 10,000 | 5.3% |
| Minnesota | 69,000 (2.3%) | 30,000 | 39,000 | 2.3% | 20,000 (9.7%) | 7,000 | 12,000 | 9.7% |
| Mississippi | 11,000 (0.9%) | 5,000 | 6,000 | 0.9% | 8,000 (8.3%) | 3,000 | 5,000 | 8.3% |
| Missouri | 33,000 (1.1%) | 14,000 | 19,000 | 1.1% | 9,000 (4.1%) | 3,000 | 5,000 | 4.1% |
| Montana | 3,000 (0.5%) | 1,000 | 2,000 | 0.5% | ||||
| Nebraska | 26,000 (2.6%) | 12,000 | 15,000 | 2.6% | 7,000 (9.8%) | 3,000 | 4,000 | 9.8% |
| Nevada | 72,000 (4.7%) | 32,000 | 41,000 | 4.7% | 31,000 (26.3%) | 12,000 | 19,000 | 26.3% |
| New Hampshire | 8,000 (1.1%) | 4,000 | 5,000 | 1.1% | ||||
| New Jersey | 234,000 (5.1%) | 102,000 | 132,000 | 5.1% | 67,000 (23.8%) | 26,000 | 42,000 | 23.8% |
| New Mexico | 28,000 (3.0%) | 12,000 | 16,000 | 3.0% | 13,000 (19.2%) | 5,000 | 8,000 | 19.2% |
| New York | 429,000 (4.6%) | 187,000 | 241,000 | 4.6% | 148,000 (24.5%) | 56,000 | 92,000 | 24.5% |
| North Carolina | 188,000 (3.7%) | 82,000 | 106,000 | 3.7% | 123,000 (25.5%) | 47,000 | 76,000 | 25.5% |
| North Dakota | 6,000 (1.4%) | 2,000 | 3,000 | 1.4% | ||||
| Ohio | 84,000 (1.5%) | 37,000 | 47,000 | 1.5% | 22,000 (7.0%) | 8,000 | 14,000 | 7.0% |
| Oklahoma | 43,000 (2.2%) | 19,000 | 24,000 | 2.2% | 29,000 (19.2%) | 11,000 | 18,000 | 19.2% |
| Oregon | 48,000 (2.3%) | 21,000 | 27,000 | 2.3% | 15,000 (10.8%) | 6,000 | 9,000 | 10.8% |
| Pennsylvania | 115,000 (1.8%) | 50,000 | 65,000 | 1.8% | 20,000 (4.9%) | 8,000 | 13,000 | 4.9% |
| Rhode Island | 20,000 (3.6%) | 9,000 | 11,000 | 3.6% | 5,000 (15.6%) | 2,000 | 3,000 | 15.6% |
| South Carolina | 62,000 (2.5%) | 27,000 | 35,000 | 2.5% | 37,000 (19.0%) | 14,000 | 23,000 | 19.0% |
| South Dakota | 6,000 (1.2%) | 2,000 | 3,000 | 1.2% | ||||
| Tennessee | 68,000 (2.1%) | 30,000 | 38,000 | 2.1% | 55,000 (18.8%) | 21,000 | 34,000 | 18.8% |
| Texas | 865,000 (5.8%) | 378,000 | 487,000 | 5.8% | 440,000 (32.1%) | 167,000 | 273,000 | 32.1% |
| Utah | 51,000 (2.9%) | 22,000 | 29,000 | 2.9% | 22,000 (14.6%) | 8,000 | 14,000 | 14.6% |
| Vermont | 3,000 (0.9%) | 1,000 | 2,000 | 0.9% | ||||
| Virginia | 120,000 (2.7%) | 52,000 | 68,000 | 2.7% | 57,000 (20.3%) | 22,000 | 35,000 | 20.3% |
| Washington | 152,000 (4.0%) | 66,000 | 86,000 | 4.0% | 31,000 (11.9%) | 12,000 | 19,000 | 11.9% |
| West Virginia | 4,000 (0.6%) | 2,000 | 2,000 | 0.6% | ||||
| Wisconsin | 47,000 (1.5%) | 20,000 | 26,000 | 1.5% | 10,000 (4.8%) | 4,000 | 6,000 | 4.8% |
| Wyoming | 2,000 (0.8%) | 1,000 | 1,000 | 0.8% |
Note: Calculations assume 1,000,000 deportations annually for four years. N/A values indicate construction employment is too small in a state to create accurate estimates.
Source: Extrapolations from East et al. (2023) and Howard, Wang, and Zhang (2024), as described in the text. Baseline employment levels from EPI (2025) analysis of the 2024 basic monthly Current Population Survey.
Appendix Table 1
Trump's deportations will reduce employment in every state: Deportations and overall employment losses for 4 million national deportations over four years
| Overall job losses | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Overall deportations |
Immigrant | U.S.-born | Total (level) | Total (percent) |
| Alabama | 24,000 | 20,000 | 15,000 | 35,000 | 1.6% |
| Alaska | 3,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 4,000 | 1.2% |
| Arizona | 96,000 | 80,000 | 62,000 | 141,000 | 3.9% |
| Arkansas | 17,000 | 14,000 | 11,000 | 24,000 | 1.8% |
| California | 775,000 | 643,000 | 498,000 | 1,141,000 | 6.2% |
| Colorado | 56,000 | 47,000 | 36,000 | 83,000 | 2.7% |
| Connecticut | 41,000 | 34,000 | 26,000 | 61,000 | 3.3% |
| Delaware | 11,000 | 9,000 | 7,000 | 16,000 | 3.4% |
| District of Columbia | 8,000 | 6,000 | 5,000 | 11,000 | 2.9% |
| Florida | 369,000 | 306,000 | 237,000 | 543,000 | 5.1% |
| Georgia | 125,000 | 104,000 | 80,000 | 184,000 | 3.5% |
| Hawaii | 14,000 | 12,000 | 9,000 | 21,000 | 3.2% |
| Idaho | 14,000 | 12,000 | 9,000 | 21,000 | 2.1% |
| Illinois | 149,000 | 123,000 | 96,000 | 219,000 | 3.5% |
| Indiana | 49,000 | 41,000 | 32,000 | 73,000 | 2.2% |
| Iowa | 26,000 | 22,000 | 17,000 | 39,000 | 2.4% |
| Kansas | 25,000 | 20,000 | 16,000 | 36,000 | 2.4% |
| Kentucky | 35,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 52,000 | 2.6% |
| Louisiana | 27,000 | 22,000 | 17,000 | 39,000 | 2.0% |
| Maine | 3,000 | 3,000 | 2,000 | 5,000 | 0.7% |
| Maryland | 78,000 | 65,000 | 50,000 | 115,000 | 3.7% |
| Massachusetts | 101,000 | 84,000 | 65,000 | 148,000 | 4.0% |
| Michigan | 53,000 | 44,000 | 34,000 | 78,000 | 1.6% |
| Minnesota | 47,000 | 39,000 | 30,000 | 69,000 | 2.3% |
| Mississippi | 7,000 | 6,000 | 5,000 | 11,000 | 0.9% |
| Missouri | 22,000 | 19,000 | 14,000 | 33,000 | 1.1% |
| Montana | 2,000 | 2,000 | 1,000 | 3,000 | 0.5% |
| Nebraska | 18,000 | 15,000 | 12,000 | 26,000 | 2.6% |
| Nevada | 49,000 | 41,000 | 32,000 | 72,000 | 4.7% |
| New Hampshire | 6,000 | 5,000 | 4,000 | 8,000 | 1.1% |
| New Jersey | 159,000 | 132,000 | 102,000 | 234,000 | 5.1% |
| New Mexico | 19,000 | 16,000 | 12,000 | 28,000 | 3.0% |
| New York | 291,000 | 241,000 | 187,000 | 429,000 | 4.6% |
| North Carolina | 128,000 | 106,000 | 82,000 | 188,000 | 3.7% |
| North Dakota | 4,000 | 3,000 | 2,000 | 6,000 | 1.4% |
| Ohio | 57,000 | 47,000 | 37,000 | 84,000 | 1.5% |
| Oklahoma | 29,000 | 24,000 | 19,000 | 43,000 | 2.2% |
| Oregon | 32,000 | 27,000 | 21,000 | 48,000 | 2.3% |
| Pennsylvania | 78,000 | 65,000 | 50,000 | 115,000 | 1.8% |
| Rhode Island | 14,000 | 11,000 | 9,000 | 20,000 | 3.6% |
| South Carolina | 42,000 | 35,000 | 27,000 | 62,000 | 2.5% |
| South Dakota | 4,000 | 3,000 | 2,000 | 6,000 | 1.2% |
| Tennessee | 46,000 | 38,000 | 30,000 | 68,000 | 2.1% |
| Texas | 588,000 | 487,000 | 378,000 | 865,000 | 5.8% |
| Utah | 35,000 | 29,000 | 22,000 | 51,000 | 2.9% |
| Vermont | 2,000 | 2,000 | 1,000 | 3,000 | 0.9% |
| Virginia | 82,000 | 68,000 | 52,000 | 120,000 | 2.7% |
| Washington | 103,000 | 86,000 | 66,000 | 152,000 | 4.0% |
| West Virginia | 3,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 4,000 | 0.6% |
| Wisconsin | 32,000 | 26,000 | 20,000 | 47,000 | 1.5% |
| Wyoming | 2,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 2,000 | 0.8% |
| United States | 4,000,000 | 3,316,000 | 2,571,000 | 5,887,000 | 3.6% |
Note: Calculations assume 1,000,000 deportations annually for four years.
Source: Extrapolations from East et al. (2023), as described in the text. Baseline employment levels from EPI (2025) analysis of the 2024 basic monthly Current Population Survey.
Appendix Table 2
Trump's deportations will harm the construction industry in every state: Deportations and construction employment losses for 4 million national deportations over four years
| Construction job losses | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall deportations |
Immigrant | U.S.-born | Total (level) | Total (percent) | |
| Alabama | 24,000 | 11,000 | 7,000 | 17,000 | 9.9% |
| Alaska | 3,000 | – | – | – | – |
| Arizona | 96,000 | 37,000 | 23,000 | 60,000 | 21.8% |
| Arkansas | 17,000 | 9,000 | 5,000 | 14,000 | 12.6% |
| California | 775,000 | 212,000 | 130,000 | 343,000 | 25.5% |
| Colorado | 56,000 | 41,000 | 25,000 | 67,000 | 22.8% |
| Connecticut | 41,000 | 12,000 | 7,000 | 20,000 | 15.5% |
| Delaware | 11,000 | 3,000 | 2,000 | 5,000 | 16.5% |
| District of Columbia | 8,000 | – | – | – | – |
| Florida | 369,000 | 123,000 | 75,000 | 198,000 | 20.6% |
| Georgia | 125,000 | 58,000 | 35,000 | 93,000 | 24.2% |
| Hawaii | 14,000 | – | – | – | – |
| Idaho | 14,000 | 5,000 | 3,000 | 8,000 | 9.2% |
| Illinois | 149,000 | 35,000 | 21,000 | 56,000 | 17.7% |
| Indiana | 49,000 | 15,000 | 9,000 | 24,000 | 10.0% |
| Iowa | 26,000 | 10,000 | 6,000 | 17,000 | 13.5% |
| Kansas | 25,000 | 9,000 | 6,000 | 15,000 | 15.0% |
| Kentucky | 35,000 | 10,000 | 6,000 | 16,000 | 12.0% |
| Louisiana | 27,000 | 17,000 | 10,000 | 27,000 | 17.1% |
| Maine | 3,000 | – | – | – | – |
| Maryland | 78,000 | 28,000 | 17,000 | 45,000 | 18.6% |
| Massachusetts | 101,000 | 27,000 | 17,000 | 44,000 | 16.5% |
| Michigan | 53,000 | 10,000 | 6,000 | 15,000 | 5.3% |
| Minnesota | 47,000 | 12,000 | 7,000 | 20,000 | 9.7% |
| Mississippi | 7,000 | 5,000 | 3,000 | 8,000 | 8.3% |
| Missouri | 22,000 | 5,000 | 3,000 | 9,000 | 4.1% |
| Montana | 2,000 | – | – | – | – |
| Nebraska | 18,000 | 4,000 | 3,000 | 7,000 | 9.8% |
| Nevada | 49,000 | 19,000 | 12,000 | 31,000 | 26.3% |
| New Hampshire | 6,000 | – | – | – | – |
| New Jersey | 159,000 | 42,000 | 26,000 | 67,000 | 23.8% |
| New Mexico | 19,000 | 8,000 | 5,000 | 13,000 | 19.2% |
| New York | 291,000 | 92,000 | 56,000 | 148,000 | 24.5% |
| North Carolina | 128,000 | 76,000 | 47,000 | 123,000 | 25.5% |
| North Dakota | 4,000 | – | – | – | – |
| Ohio | 57,000 | 14,000 | 8,000 | 22,000 | 7.0% |
| Oklahoma | 29,000 | 18,000 | 11,000 | 29,000 | 19.2% |
| Oregon | 32,000 | 9,000 | 6,000 | 15,000 | 10.8% |
| Pennsylvania | 78,000 | 13,000 | 8,000 | 20,000 | 4.9% |
| Rhode Island | 14,000 | 3,000 | 2,000 | 5,000 | 15.6% |
| South Carolina | 42,000 | 23,000 | 14,000 | 37,000 | 19.0% |
| South Dakota | 4,000 | – | – | – | – |
| Tennessee | 46,000 | 34,000 | 21,000 | 55,000 | 18.8% |
| Texas | 588,000 | 273,000 | 167,000 | 440,000 | 32.1% |
| Utah | 35,000 | 14,000 | 8,000 | 22,000 | 14.6% |
| Vermont | 2,000 | – | – | – | – |
| Virginia | 82,000 | 35,000 | 22,000 | 57,000 | 20.3% |
| Washington | 103,000 | 19,000 | 12,000 | 31,000 | 11.9% |
| West Virginia | 3,000 | – | – | – | – |
| Wisconsin | 32,000 | 6,000 | 4,000 | 10,000 | 4.8% |
| Wyoming | 2,000 | – | – | – | – |
| United States | 4,000,000 | 1,405,000 | 861,000 | 2,266,000 | 18.8% |
Note: Calculations assume 1,000,000 deportations annually for four years. "-" indicates construction employment is too small in a state to create accurate estimates.
Source: Extrapolations from East et al. (2023) and Howard, Wang, and Zhang (2024), as described in the text. Baseline employment levels from EPI (2025) analysis of the 2024 basic monthly Current Population Survey.