Statement | Jobs and Unemployment

News from EPI A portrait of disaster: Initial UI claims jump from 211,000 to 6.6 million in three weeks

This morning, the Department of Labor (DOL) released data on initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims, showing that UI claims jumped from 211,000 in the week ending March 7 to 6.6 million in the week ending March 28. This is a more than 3,000% increase in three weeks. This kind of upending of the labor market in such a short time is unheard of.

Chart

Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims: Seasonally adjusted, 1967–present

Week ending date Initial claims 
1967-01-07 208000
1967-01-14 207000
1967-01-21 217000
1967-01-28 204000
1967-02-04 216000
1967-02-11 229000
1967-02-18 229000
1967-02-25 242000
1967-03-04 310000
1967-03-11 241000
1967-03-18 245000
1967-03-25 247000
1967-04-01 259000
1967-04-08 257000
1967-04-15 299000
1967-04-22 245000
1967-04-29 255000
1967-05-06 254000
1967-05-13 231000
1967-05-20 230000
1967-05-27 228000
1967-06-03 248000
1967-06-10 238000
1967-06-17 224000
1967-06-24 218000
1967-07-01 209000
1967-07-08 240000
1967-07-15 241000
1967-07-22 240000
1967-07-29 209000
1967-08-05 221000
1967-08-12 202000
1967-08-19 215000
1967-08-26 213000
1967-09-02 218000
1967-09-09 231000
1967-09-16 220000
1967-09-23 209000
1967-09-30 204000
1967-10-07 231000
1967-10-14 206000
1967-10-21 223000
1967-10-28 207000
1967-11-04 222000
1967-11-11 214000
1967-11-18 198000
1967-11-25 191000
1967-12-02 196000
1967-12-09 221000
1967-12-16 204000
1967-12-23 219000
1967-12-30 216000
1968-01-06 222000
1968-01-13 222000
1968-01-20 221000
1968-01-27 198000
1968-02-03 244000
1968-02-10 210000
1968-02-17 196000
1968-02-24 193000
1968-03-02 190000
1968-03-09 204000
1968-03-16 190000
1968-03-23 200000
1968-03-30 192000
1968-04-06 191000
1968-04-13 171000
1968-04-20 183000
1968-04-27 251000
1968-05-04 209000
1968-05-11 194000
1968-05-18 199000
1968-05-25 194000
1968-06-01 199000
1968-06-08 192000
1968-06-15 194000
1968-06-22 189000
1968-06-29 194000
1968-07-06 214000
1968-07-13 186000
1968-07-20 180000
1968-07-27 205000
1968-08-03 206000
1968-08-10 218000
1968-08-17 192000
1968-08-24 193000
1968-08-31 188000
1968-09-07 189000
1968-09-14 195000
1968-09-21 191000
1968-09-28 189000
1968-10-05 185000
1968-10-12 186000
1968-10-19 191000
1968-10-26 182000
1968-11-02 181000
1968-11-09 183000
1968-11-16 192000
1968-11-23 199000
1968-11-30 162000
1968-12-07 188000
1968-12-14 195000
1968-12-21 192000
1968-12-28 223000
1969-01-04 190000
1969-01-11 191000
1969-01-18 192000
1969-01-25 193000
1969-02-01 203000
1969-02-08 197000
1969-02-15 192000
1969-02-22 192000
1969-03-01 201000
1969-03-08 191000
1969-03-15 189000
1969-03-22 181000
1969-03-29 183000
1969-04-05 182000
1969-04-12 190000
1969-04-19 187000
1969-04-26 177000
1969-05-03 177000
1969-05-10 183000
1969-05-17 179000
1969-05-24 180000
1969-05-31 187000
1969-06-07 192000
1969-06-14 182000
1969-06-21 191000
1969-06-28 203000
1969-07-05 227000
1969-07-12 210000
1969-07-19 206000
1969-07-26 192000
1969-08-02 196000
1969-08-09 203000
1969-08-16 199000
1969-08-23 199000
1969-08-30 195000
1969-09-06 182000
1969-09-13 209000
1969-09-20 195000
1969-09-27 193000
1969-10-04 193000
1969-10-11 200000
1969-10-18 199000
1969-10-25 205000
1969-11-01 198000
1969-11-08 211000
1969-11-15 197000
1969-11-22 217000
1969-11-29 202000
1969-12-06 202000
1969-12-13 222000
1969-12-20 232000
1969-12-27 223000
1970-01-03 230000
1970-01-10 242000
1970-01-17 268000
1970-01-24 256000
1970-01-31 239000
1970-02-07 256000
1970-02-14 265000
1970-02-21 271000
1970-02-28 242000
1970-03-07 262000
1970-03-14 271000
1970-03-21 264000
1970-03-28 276000
1970-04-04 273000
1970-04-11 305000
1970-04-18 374000
1970-04-25 349000
1970-05-02 334000
1970-05-09 318000
1970-05-16 303000
1970-05-23 296000
1970-05-30 301000
1970-06-06 301000
1970-06-13 298000
1970-06-20 296000
1970-06-27 291000
1970-07-04 277000
1970-07-11 288000
1970-07-18 294000
1970-07-25 287000
1970-08-01 261000
1970-08-08 266000
1970-08-15 300000
1970-08-22 303000
1970-08-29 297000
1970-09-05 324000
1970-09-12 292000
1970-09-19 325000
1970-09-26 333000
1970-10-03 350000
1970-10-10 327000
1970-10-17 334000
1970-10-24 330000
1970-10-31 327000
1970-11-07 336000
1970-11-14 314000
1970-11-21 314000
1970-11-28 337000
1970-12-05 308000
1970-12-12 306000
1970-12-19 289000
1970-12-26 321000
1971-01-02 303000
1971-01-09 288000
1971-01-16 299000
1971-01-23 312000
1971-01-30 292000
1971-02-06 296000
1971-02-13 282000
1971-02-20 268000
1971-02-27 290000
1971-03-06 297000
1971-03-13 287000
1971-03-20 291000
1971-03-27 300000
1971-04-03 299000
1971-04-10 279000
1971-04-17 284000
1971-04-24 288000
1971-05-01 290000
1971-05-08 293000
1971-05-15 284000
1971-05-22 295000
1971-05-29 299000
1971-06-05 301000
1971-06-12 295000
1971-06-19 299000
1971-06-26 291000
1971-07-03 277000
1971-07-10 264000
1971-07-17 313000
1971-07-24 304000
1971-07-31 308000
1971-08-07 349000
1971-08-14 325000
1971-08-21 320000
1971-08-28 307000
1971-09-04 359000
1971-09-11 312000
1971-09-18 302000
1971-09-25 308000
1971-10-02 299000
1971-10-09 313000
1971-10-16 299000
1971-10-23 294000
1971-10-30 283000
1971-11-06 301000
1971-11-13 295000
1971-11-20 274000
1971-11-27 278000
1971-12-04 299000
1971-12-11 280000
1971-12-18 269000
1971-12-25 244000
1972-01-01 279000
1972-01-08 295000
1972-01-15 250000
1972-01-22 263000
1972-01-29 269000
1972-02-05 276000
1972-02-12 266000
1972-02-19 258000
1972-02-26 254000
1972-03-04 257000
1972-03-11 264000
1972-03-18 266000
1972-03-25 264000
1972-04-01 258000
1972-04-08 274000
1972-04-15 259000
1972-04-22 259000
1972-04-29 265000
1972-05-06 271000
1972-05-13 266000
1972-05-20 267000
1972-05-27 267000
1972-06-03 264000
1972-06-10 268000
1972-06-17 275000
1972-06-24 286000
1972-07-01 350000
1972-07-08 297000
1972-07-15 318000
1972-07-22 276000
1972-07-29 247000
1972-08-05 250000
1972-08-12 246000
1972-08-19 256000
1972-08-26 262000
1972-09-02 258000
1972-09-09 259000
1972-09-16 258000
1972-09-23 255000
1972-09-30 251000
1972-10-07 263000
1972-10-14 250000
1972-10-21 257000
1972-10-28 234000
1972-11-04 255000
1972-11-11 242000
1972-11-18 271000
1972-11-25 235000
1972-12-02 226000
1972-12-09 252000
1972-12-16 263000
1972-12-23 246000
1972-12-30 225000
1973-01-06 226000
1973-01-13 245000
1973-01-20 229000
1973-01-27 214000
1973-02-03 228000
1973-02-10 226000
1973-02-17 216000
1973-02-24 218000
1973-03-03 225000
1973-03-10 229000
1973-03-17 228000
1973-03-24 232000
1973-03-31 222000
1973-04-07 247000
1973-04-14 230000
1973-04-21 243000
1973-04-28 236000
1973-05-05 248000
1973-05-12 238000
1973-05-19 237000
1973-05-26 238000
1973-06-02 232000
1973-06-09 246000
1973-06-16 237000
1973-06-23 242000
1973-06-30 237000
1973-07-07 248000
1973-07-14 232000
1973-07-21 241000
1973-07-28 250000
1973-08-04 256000
1973-08-11 265000
1973-08-18 258000
1973-08-25 254000
1973-09-01 242000
1973-09-08 252000
1973-09-15 245000
1973-09-22 246000
1973-09-29 249000
1973-10-06 236000
1973-10-13 246000
1973-10-20 249000
1973-10-27 235000
1973-11-03 246000
1973-11-10 282000
1973-11-17 254000
1973-11-24 233000
1973-12-01 256000
1973-12-08 266000
1973-12-15 272000
1973-12-22 326000
1973-12-29 300000
1974-01-05 269000
1974-01-12 340000
1974-01-19 321000
1974-01-26 291000
1974-02-02 302000
1974-02-09 369000
1974-02-16 311000
1974-02-23 292000
1974-03-02 301000
1974-03-09 305000
1974-03-16 315000
1974-03-23 314000
1974-03-30 323000
1974-04-06 296000
1974-04-13 297000
1974-04-20 296000
1974-04-27 283000
1974-05-04 287000
1974-05-11 296000
1974-05-18 298000
1974-05-25 309000
1974-06-01 278000
1974-06-08 314000
1974-06-15 303000
1974-06-22 308000
1974-06-29 325000
1974-07-06 311000
1974-07-13 304000
1974-07-20 303000
1974-07-27 320000
1974-08-03 335000
1974-08-10 347000
1974-08-17 332000
1974-08-24 343000
1974-08-31 350000
1974-09-07 350000
1974-09-14 357000
1974-09-21 370000
1974-09-28 366000
1974-10-05 371000
1974-10-12 413000
1974-10-19 389000
1974-10-26 414000
1974-11-02 406000
1974-11-09 441000
1974-11-16 449000
1974-11-23 518000
1974-11-30 474000
1974-12-07 528000
1974-12-14 510000
1974-12-21 521000
1974-12-28 537000
1975-01-04 456000
1975-01-11 554000
1975-01-18 575000
1975-01-25 555000
1975-02-01 559000
1975-02-08 545000
1975-02-15 530000
1975-02-22 544000
1975-03-01 546000
1975-03-08 551000
1975-03-15 531000
1975-03-22 550000
1975-03-29 555000
1975-04-05 537000
1975-04-12 520000
1975-04-19 531000
1975-04-26 513000
1975-05-03 505000
1975-05-10 507000
1975-05-17 514000
1975-05-24 493000
1975-05-31 475000
1975-06-07 529000
1975-06-14 497000
1975-06-21 497000
1975-06-28 459000
1975-07-05 423000
1975-07-12 446000
1975-07-19 445000
1975-07-26 454000
1975-08-02 454000
1975-08-09 459000
1975-08-16 444000
1975-08-23 457000
1975-08-30 446000
1975-09-06 447000
1975-09-13 456000
1975-09-20 433000
1975-09-27 445000
1975-10-04 426000
1975-10-11 429000
1975-10-18 404000
1975-10-25 426000
1975-11-01 414000
1975-11-08 415000
1975-11-15 386000
1975-11-22 401000
1975-11-29 387000
1975-12-06 373000
1975-12-13 368000
1975-12-20 365000
1975-12-27 391000
1976-01-03 362000
1976-01-10 402000
1976-01-17 370000
1976-01-24 363000
1976-01-31 359000
1976-02-07 353000
1976-02-14 344000
1976-02-21 347000
1976-02-28 349000
1976-03-06 348000
1976-03-13 360000
1976-03-20 368000
1976-03-27 366000
1976-04-03 380000
1976-04-10 373000
1976-04-17 361000
1976-04-24 367000
1976-05-01 385000
1976-05-08 395000
1976-05-15 382000
1976-05-22 394000
1976-05-29 402000
1976-06-05 382000
1976-06-12 407000
1976-06-19 399000
1976-06-26 387000
1976-07-03 394000
1976-07-10 372000
1976-07-17 406000
1976-07-24 394000
1976-07-31 388000
1976-08-07 378000
1976-08-14 382000
1976-08-21 400000
1976-08-28 394000
1976-09-04 421000
1976-09-11 383000
1976-09-18 403000
1976-09-25 423000
1976-10-02 408000
1976-10-09 411000
1976-10-16 403000
1976-10-23 409000
1976-10-30 414000
1976-11-06 390000
1976-11-13 383000
1976-11-20 408000
1976-11-27 377000
1976-12-04 402000
1976-12-11 395000
1976-12-18 365000
1976-12-25 333000
1977-01-01 380000
1977-01-08 416000
1977-01-15 368000
1977-01-22 423000
1977-01-29 422000
1977-02-05 565000
1977-02-12 477000
1977-02-19 399000
1977-02-26 362000
1977-03-05 361000
1977-03-12 355000
1977-03-19 369000
1977-03-26 356000
1977-04-02 350000
1977-04-09 376000
1977-04-16 361000
1977-04-23 375000
1977-04-30 375000
1977-05-07 384000
1977-05-14 381000
1977-05-21 375000
1977-05-28 381000
1977-06-04 363000
1977-06-11 358000
1977-06-18 359000
1977-06-25 365000
1977-07-02 350000
1977-07-09 361000
1977-07-16 366000
1977-07-23 365000
1977-07-30 365000
1977-08-06 378000
1977-08-13 359000
1977-08-20 367000
1977-08-27 365000
1977-09-03 374000
1977-09-10 359000
1977-09-17 362000
1977-09-24 380000
1977-10-01 348000
1977-10-08 365000
1977-10-15 358000
1977-10-22 375000
1977-10-29 349000
1977-11-05 366000
1977-11-12 334000
1977-11-19 360000
1977-11-26 354000
1977-12-03 367000
1977-12-10 364000
1977-12-17 359000
1977-12-24 344000
1977-12-31 364000
1978-01-07 346000
1978-01-14 343000
1978-01-21 352000
1978-01-28 363000
1978-02-04 360000
1978-02-11 373000
1978-02-18 429000
1978-02-25 371000
1978-03-04 355000
1978-03-11 359000
1978-03-18 347000
1978-03-25 335000
1978-04-01 333000
1978-04-08 345000
1978-04-15 309000
1978-04-22 319000
1978-04-29 324000
1978-05-06 334000
1978-05-13 322000
1978-05-20 334000
1978-05-27 318000
1978-06-03 310000
1978-06-10 331000
1978-06-17 326000
1978-06-24 330000
1978-07-01 348000
1978-07-08 356000
1978-07-15 352000
1978-07-22 349000
1978-07-29 346000
1978-08-05 365000
1978-08-12 354000
1978-08-19 343000
1978-08-26 333000
1978-09-02 313000
1978-09-09 337000
1978-09-16 322000
1978-09-23 323000
1978-09-30 318000
1978-10-07 343000
1978-10-14 316000
1978-10-21 338000
1978-10-28 316000
1978-11-04 317000
1978-11-11 304000
1978-11-18 342000
1978-11-25 359000
1978-12-02 377000
1978-12-09 344000
1978-12-16 347000
1978-12-23 352000
1978-12-30 358000
1979-01-06 359000
1979-01-13 392000
1979-01-20 337000
1979-01-27 342000
1979-02-03 348000
1979-02-10 359000
1979-02-17 367000
1979-02-24 360000
1979-03-03 355000
1979-03-10 363000
1979-03-17 359000
1979-03-24 353000
1979-03-31 360000
1979-04-07 465000
1979-04-14 457000
1979-04-21 383000
1979-04-28 357000
1979-05-05 353000
1979-05-12 344000
1979-05-19 346000
1979-05-26 349000
1979-06-02 336000
1979-06-09 365000
1979-06-16 351000
1979-06-23 379000
1979-06-30 369000
1979-07-07 368000
1979-07-14 368000
1979-07-21 395000
1979-07-28 386000
1979-08-04 412000
1979-08-11 386000
1979-08-18 387000
1979-08-25 390000
1979-09-01 389000
1979-09-08 378000
1979-09-15 384000
1979-09-22 388000
1979-09-29 390000
1979-10-06 412000
1979-10-13 393000
1979-10-20 406000
1979-10-27 398000
1979-11-03 395000
1979-11-10 414000
1979-11-17 430000
1979-11-24 414000
1979-12-01 416000
1979-12-08 415000
1979-12-15 411000
1979-12-22 471000
1979-12-29 428000
1980-01-05 394000
1980-01-12 405000
1980-01-19 446000
1980-01-26 412000
1980-02-02 404000
1980-02-09 425000
1980-02-16 415000
1980-02-23 428000
1980-03-01 409000
1980-03-08 418000
1980-03-15 432000
1980-03-22 435000
1980-03-29 475000
1980-04-05 464000
1980-04-12 544000
1980-04-19 548000
1980-04-26 563000
1980-05-03 572000
1980-05-10 601000
1980-05-17 642000
1980-05-24 627000
1980-05-31 637000
1980-06-07 610000
1980-06-14 592000
1980-06-21 599000
1980-06-28 627000
1980-07-05 579000
1980-07-12 533000
1980-07-19 567000
1980-07-26 558000
1980-08-02 569000
1980-08-09 533000
1980-08-16 525000
1980-08-23 512000
1980-08-30 502000
1980-09-06 511000
1980-09-13 492000
1980-09-20 465000
1980-09-27 463000
1980-10-04 462000
1980-10-11 447000
1980-10-18 425000
1980-10-25 418000
1980-11-01 419000
1980-11-08 407000
1980-11-15 427000
1980-11-22 398000
1980-11-29 412000
1980-12-06 416000
1980-12-13 413000
1980-12-20 412000
1980-12-27 399000
1981-01-03 410000
1981-01-10 419000
1981-01-17 421000
1981-01-24 396000
1981-01-31 419000
1981-02-07 420000
1981-02-14 423000
1981-02-21 438000
1981-02-28 434000
1981-03-07 409000
1981-03-14 408000
1981-03-21 401000
1981-03-28 412000
1981-04-04 417000
1981-04-11 396000
1981-04-18 392000
1981-04-25 436000
1981-05-02 413000
1981-05-09 423000
1981-05-16 414000
1981-05-23 415000
1981-05-30 417000
1981-06-06 428000
1981-06-13 425000
1981-06-20 435000
1981-06-27 444000
1981-07-04 460000
1981-07-11 426000
1981-07-18 430000
1981-07-25 407000
1981-08-01 476000
1981-08-08 448000
1981-08-15 442000
1981-08-22 434000
1981-08-29 451000
1981-09-05 473000
1981-09-12 454000
1981-09-19 475000
1981-09-26 491000
1981-10-03 489000
1981-10-10 491000
1981-10-17 487000
1981-10-24 483000
1981-10-31 514000
1981-11-07 514000
1981-11-14 517000
1981-11-21 464000
1981-11-28 552000
1981-12-05 558000
1981-12-12 551000
1981-12-19 539000
1981-12-26 556000
1982-01-02 495000
1982-01-09 545000
1982-01-16 489000
1982-01-23 564000
1982-01-30 583000
1982-02-06 556000
1982-02-13 507000
1982-02-20 544000
1982-02-27 528000
1982-03-06 556000
1982-03-13 539000
1982-03-20 557000
1982-03-27 574000
1982-04-03 578000
1982-04-10 585000
1982-04-17 597000
1982-04-24 588000
1982-05-01 576000
1982-05-08 584000
1982-05-15 585000
1982-05-22 586000
1982-05-29 588000
1982-06-05 611000
1982-06-12 614000
1982-06-19 591000
1982-06-26 582000
1982-07-03 600000
1982-07-10 572000
1982-07-17 567000
1982-07-24 536000
1982-07-31 605000
1982-08-07 606000
1982-08-14 637000
1982-08-21 628000
1982-08-28 647000
1982-09-04 651000
1982-09-11 641000
1982-09-18 680000
1982-09-25 671000
1982-10-02 695000
1982-10-09 651000
1982-10-16 656000
1982-10-23 623000
1982-10-30 637000
1982-11-06 589000
1982-11-13 599000
1982-11-20 577000
1982-11-27 612000
1982-12-04 557000
1982-12-11 533000
1982-12-18 516000
1982-12-25 489000
1983-01-01 534000
1983-01-08 510000
1983-01-15 479000
1983-01-22 479000
1983-01-29 503000
1983-02-05 501000
1983-02-12 486000
1983-02-19 487000
1983-02-26 481000
1983-03-05 495000
1983-03-12 475000
1983-03-19 470000
1983-03-26 481000
1983-04-02 491000
1983-04-09 496000
1983-04-16 515000
1983-04-23 488000
1983-04-30 490000
1983-05-07 494000
1983-05-14 464000
1983-05-21 460000
1983-05-28 454000
1983-06-04 459000
1983-06-11 442000
1983-06-18 434000
1983-06-25 442000
1983-07-02 422000
1983-07-09 412000
1983-07-16 396000
1983-07-23 395000
1983-07-30 415000
1983-08-06 415000
1983-08-13 457000
1983-08-20 445000
1983-08-27 426000
1983-09-03 411000
1983-09-10 403000
1983-09-17 405000
1983-09-24 416000
1983-10-01 413000
1983-10-08 406000
1983-10-15 394000
1983-10-22 394000
1983-10-29 404000
1983-11-05 395000
1983-11-12 390000
1983-11-19 387000
1983-11-26 398000
1983-12-03 365000
1983-12-10 368000
1983-12-17 362000
1983-12-24 377000
1983-12-31 372000
1984-01-07 356000
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2018-11-03 217000
2018-11-10 218000
2018-11-17 222000
2018-11-24 232000
2018-12-01 232000
2018-12-08 203000
2018-12-15 216000
2018-12-22 219000
2018-12-29 228000
2019-01-05 220000
2019-01-12 216000
2019-01-19 209000
2019-01-26 236000
2019-02-02 230000
2019-02-09 228000
2019-02-16 218000
2019-02-23 224000
2019-03-02 220000
2019-03-09 224000
2019-03-16 219000
2019-03-23 215000
2019-03-30 211000
2019-04-06 203000
2019-04-13 203000
2019-04-20 226000
2019-04-27 230000
2019-05-04 225000
2019-05-11 217000
2019-05-18 213000
2019-05-25 218000
2019-06-01 220000
2019-06-08 220000
2019-06-15 219000
2019-06-22 224000
2019-06-29 222000
2019-07-06 211000
2019-07-13 217000
2019-07-20 211000
2019-07-27 216000
2019-08-03 214000
2019-08-10 218000
2019-08-17 215000
2019-08-24 215000
2019-08-31 219000
2019-09-07 208000
2019-09-14 211000
2019-09-21 215000
2019-09-28 218000
2019-10-05 212000
2019-10-12 218000
2019-10-19 213000
2019-10-26 217000
2019-11-02 212000
2019-11-09 222000
2019-11-16 223000
2019-11-23 211000
2019-11-30 206000
2019-12-07 237000
2019-12-14 229000
2019-12-21 218000
2019-12-28 220000
2020-01-04 212000
2020-01-11 207000
2020-01-18 220000
2020-01-25 212000
2020-02-01 201000
2020-02-08 204000
2020-02-15 215000
2020-02-22 220000
2020-02-29 217000
2020-03-07 211000
2020-03-14 282000
2020-03-21 3,283,000
2020-03-28  6,648,000
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Note: Due to the scale of the chart and rapid increase in initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims, the initial UI claims for the weeks ending March 21 and March 28, 2020 appear to align vertically.

Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from Department of Labor (DOL), https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf and https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp, April 2, 2020

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The figure shows initial UI claims over time. The spike at the end shows the unprecedented territory we are in right now. (Note: Because the x-axis covers more than 50 years and the increase in the last two weeks is so drastic, the last two observations appear to be in a vertical line.) What the labor market is currently experiencing is far more extreme than anything we’ve ever seen, including the worst weeks of the Great Recession.

It’s worth noting that UI claims do not include many workers who are out of work due to the virus, including independent contractors, those who don’t have long enough work histories, those who had to quit work to care for a child whose school closed, and more, so the actually number of people out of work is higher than today’s data show us. One of the most effective parts of the CARES Act, the relief and recovery act that Congress passed last week, is a $250 billion expansion of unemployment insurance, including an increase in the level of benefits and the creation of a Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program that will be available to many workers who are not eligible for regular unemployment insurance. These provisions are very important and will help millions. However, the broader stimulus package contains many weaknesses that reduce its effectiveness, which is regrettable because the job loss we have seen so far are just the tip of the iceberg. Based on new GDP forecasts, we project that nearly 20 million workers will be laid off or furloughed by July, with losses in every state. And importantly, the GDP forecasts these projections are based on include the impact of the CARES Act and they assume that Congress will pass another relief package focused on aid to states. That implies that far more than 20 million workers will be laid off or furloughed if there is not another meaningful relief and recovery bill.

It is important to step back from today’s UI numbers and remember that this labor market crisis didn’t have to happen. Due to failed leadership, we twice missed the chance to avert widespread job loss. Now policymakers must act to avoid greater damage. Given the incredible deterioration of the labor market in a matter of weeks, federal policymakers will absolutely need to come back and provide more desperately needed relief and more support for the recovery once the lockdown is over.


See related work on Unemployment insurance | Coronavirus

See more work by Heidi Shierholz