Yet quickening wage growth isn’t the only hallmark of a shortage. The telltale sign is seeing this trend alongside stalling job growth, as Heidi Shierholz, senior economist and policy director at the Economic Policy Institute puts it. Just look at what’s been happening in the leisure and hospitality sector, among the most bruised by the Covid-19 shutdown. After jobs all but vanished in the throes of the pandemic, we’re starting to see a rebound: In May, the sector created 292,000 jobs, far outpacing other corners of the economy and contributing heavily to the overall increase in nonfarm payrolls of 559,000. June data, to be released Friday, are expected to show still stronger gains. Meanwhile, average weekly earnings have been rising faster than many other industries. In other words, the market is working to resolve a shortage: When employers lift wages, they’re able to attract the employees they need, as Shierholz said in a recent podcast. (She also notes that leisure and hospitality wages are only just meeting pre-Covid levels; they are not too high.)
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Compare that with what happens in the U.S., where the conversation is largely driven by businesses trying to influence policy makers behind closed doors, write Daniel Costa of the Economic Policy Institute and Philip Martin, an economics professor at the University of California, Davis. “While the data are sometimes clear, in many cases, shortage determinations are an inexact and subjective science,” Costa wrote in an email. Without a credible source of information and set of objective criteria, we’re ceding the debate to the loudest lobbyists with the fattest wallets.