Figure B
Placebo exercise reproduces the employment decline found by Clemens and Wither, suggesting that it is spurious: Actual and placebo employment effects for the SIPP low-wage sample
| All states: baseline model | Unbound states: divisions–based placebo | |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-08-01 | -0.0035 | 0.018815348 |
| 2008-09-01 | -0.00363 | -0.016770052 |
| 2008-10-01 | -0.00632 | 0.001548901 |
| 2008-11-01 | 0.008563 | 0.033825245 |
| 2008-12-01 | 0.016002 | 0.032502826 |
| 2009-01-01 | 0.017604 | 0.05204032 |
| 2009-02-01 | 0.006566 | 0.035097167 |
| 2009-04-01 | -0.01905 | -0.038712703 |
| 2009-05-01 | -0.0185 | -0.045146335 |
| 2009-06-01 | -0.02181 | -0.052993253 |
| 2009-07-01 | -0.03357 | -0.034792811 |
| 2009-08-01 | -0.03108 | -0.032066379 |
| 2009-09-01 | -0.0318 | -0.052238453 |
| 2009-10-01 | -0.043 | -0.050616298 |
| 2009-11-01 | -0.04717 | -0.06437926 |
| 2009-12-01 | -0.03137 | -0.047946434 |
| 2010-01-01 | -0.02995 | -0.040831096 |
| 2010-02-01 | -0.0275 | -0.032963473 |
| 2010-03-01 | -0.03378 | -0.036817957 |
| 2010-04-01 | -0.04727 | -0.066670507 |
| 2010-05-01 | -0.03929 | -0.03869411 |
| 2010-06-01 | -0.03554 | -0.061679911 |
| 2010-07-01 | -0.04137 | -0.081281506 |
| 2010-08-01 | -0.04995 | -0.061735131 |
| 2010-09-01 | -0.06628 | -0.066378288 |
| 2010-10-01 | -0.06667 | -0.043987755 |
| 2010-11-01 | -0.05844 | -0.040016208 |
| 2010-12-01 | -0.05332 | -0.009436508 |
| 2011-01-01 | -0.04902 | -0.019311234 |
| 2011-02-01 | -0.05446 | -0.026713893 |
| 2011-03-01 | -0.05639 | -0.023632614 |
| 2011-04-01 | -0.0718 | -0.031338908 |
| 2011-05-01 | -0.07775 | -0.048510961 |
| 2011-06-01 | -0.06426 | -0.040371522 |
| 2011-07-01 | -0.05805 | -0.057913806 |
| 2011-08-01 | -0.0616 | -0.07310228 |
| 2011-09-01 | -0.06019 | -0.090798765 |
| 2011-10-01 | -0.06241 | -0.088278413 |
| 2011-11-01 | -0.06413 | -0.074683912 |
| 2011-12-01 | -0.05377 | -0.06738767 |
| 2012-01-01 | -0.05571 | -0.073587179 |
| 2012-02-01 | -0.05457 | -0.054122891 |
| 2012-03-01 | -0.05163 | -0.035154536 |
| 2012-04-01 | -0.04969 | -0.043841951 |
| 2012-05-01 | -0.04927 | -0.035412267 |
| 2012-06-01 | -0.04555 | -0.040490326 |
| 2012-07-01 | -0.04381 | -0.055822216 |
Notes: The figure reports the time-varying coefficients on the Bound term from the baseline regressions in Clemens and Wither (2016) and the Division-Bound term from the placebo falsification test, where the sample is the SIPP low-wage sample and the outcome is an individual-level employment indicator; see Zipperer (2016) for a complete discussion.
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