Chart: OMB forecasts for GDP are far higher than CBO’s, even as CBO forecasts significant immigration: Forecasts for real GDP growth from the Trump administration, the CBO, and CBO forecasts if net immigration to the U.S. was halved or reduced to zero, 2026–2035 | Economic Policy Institute

Figure C

OMB forecasts for GDP are far higher than CBO’s, even as CBO forecasts significant immigration: Forecasts for real GDP growth from the Trump administration, the CBO, and CBO forecasts if net immigration to the U.S. was halved or reduced to zero, 2026–2035

Year	Real GDP Growth
OMB	2.89%
CBO	1.83%
CBO with net immigration halved	1.63%
CBO with zero net immigration	1.47%

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Source: Author’s analysis based on data from CBO (2025a, 2025b).

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The U.S.-Born labor force will shrink over the next decade: Achieving historically ‘normal’ GDP growth rates will be impossible, unless immigration flows are sustained

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