Inflationary pressures have receded sharply since 2022–continuing through the latest 12 months
| 2022 value | Current value | 2019q4 value | Change since 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (core PCE deflator) | (1) | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | -2.6% |
| Change in inflation most recent 12 months | (2) | 1.6% | -1.8% | -0.4% | -3.4% |
| Nominal wage growth | (3) | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | -1.3% |
| Change in wage growth most recent 12 months | (4) | 1.1% | -0.7% | 0.3% | -1.8% |
| Unemployment | (5) | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Quits rate | (6) | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | -0.7% |
| Openings rate | (7) | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | -2.1% |
| LFPR relative to projections | (8) | -0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| Prime-age LFPR | (9) | 82.4% | 83.9% | 82.5% | 1.4% |
| Productivity growth | (10) | -1.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 4.6% |
| GSCPI | (11) | 2.16 | 0.20 | -0.04 | -1.96 |
| NFC profit margin | (12) | 20.0% | 19.5% | 14.9% | -0.6% |
Note: The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) was downloaded from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive. The projected level of labor force participation rate (LFPR) that actual labor force participation is compared to comes from the Congressional Budget Office’s Budget and Economic Outlook, 2020-2029. All other data downloaded from the St Louis FRED. Nominal wage growth is measured by growth in average hourly earnings of all private sector workers from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The non-financial corporate (NFC) profit margin is profits divided by all other cost components in this sector of the economy.
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