Figure A
Demand shortfall causes actual GDP to lag potential---and then begins to erode this potential: Actual GDP and estimates of potential GDP made in 2008 and 2019
| Actual | Potential (2008 estimate) | Potential (2019 estimate) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000Q1 | 81.9954 | 80.1116 | 81.0617 |
| 2000Q2 | 83.4961 | 80.8493 | 81.9061 |
| 2000Q3 | 83.6088 | 81.5878 | 82.7390 |
| 2000Q4 | 84.1294 | 82.3213 | 83.5521 |
| 2001Q1 | 83.8901 | 83.0454 | 84.3283 |
| 2001Q2 | 84.3805 | 83.7475 | 85.0656 |
| 2001Q3 | 84.0303 | 84.4301 | 85.7749 |
| 2001Q4 | 84.2596 | 85.0882 | 86.4562 |
| 2002Q1 | 84.9964 | 85.7183 | 87.1036 |
| 2002Q2 | 85.5118 | 86.3272 | 87.7230 |
| 2002Q3 | 85.8913 | 86.9192 | 88.3253 |
| 2002Q4 | 86.0234 | 87.5002 | 88.9154 |
| 2003Q1 | 86.5015 | 88.0778 | 89.5099 |
| 2003Q2 | 87.2454 | 88.6520 | 90.0969 |
| 2003Q3 | 88.7268 | 89.2262 | 90.6832 |
| 2003Q4 | 89.7458 | 89.8030 | 91.2733 |
| 2004Q1 | 90.2251 | 90.3840 | 91.8742 |
| 2004Q2 | 90.9120 | 90.9726 | 92.4987 |
| 2004Q3 | 91.7719 | 91.5697 | 93.1264 |
| 2004Q4 | 92.6916 | 92.1744 | 93.7529 |
| 2005Q1 | 93.7175 | 92.7893 | 94.3761 |
| 2005Q2 | 94.1500 | 93.4135 | 94.9802 |
| 2005Q3 | 94.9893 | 94.0461 | 95.5678 |
| 2005Q4 | 95.5885 | 94.6864 | 96.1350 |
| 2006Q1 | 96.8596 | 95.3326 | 96.6633 |
| 2006Q2 | 97.0852 | 95.9847 | 97.1635 |
| 2006Q3 | 97.2360 | 96.6419 | 97.6472 |
| 2006Q4 | 98.0637 | 97.3051 | 98.1194 |
| 2007Q1 | 98.2946 | 97.9716 | 98.5910 |
| 2007Q2 | 98.8583 | 98.6441 | 99.0664 |
| 2007Q3 | 99.3944 | 99.3199 | 99.5361 |
| 2007Q4 | 100.0000 | 100.0000 | 100.0000 |
| 2008Q1 | 99.4259 | 100.6826 | 100.4620 |
| 2008Q2 | 99.9392 | 101.3661 | 100.9209 |
| 2008Q3 | 99.3973 | 102.0504 | 101.3631 |
| 2008Q4 | 97.2469 | 102.7356 | 101.7824 |
| 2009Q1 | 96.1551 | 103.4199 | 102.1642 |
| 2009Q2 | 96.0169 | 104.1042 | 102.4911 |
| 2009Q3 | 96.3662 | 104.7894 | 102.7919 |
| 2009Q4 | 97.4260 | 105.4754 | 103.0729 |
| 2010Q1 | 97.7991 | 106.1622 | 103.3316 |
| 2010Q2 | 98.7024 | 106.8491 | 103.5897 |
| 2010Q3 | 99.4294 | 107.5385 | 103.8504 |
| 2010Q4 | 99.9278 | 108.2304 | 104.1218 |
| 2011Q1 | 99.6880 | 108.9275 | 104.4354 |
| 2011Q2 | 100.4016 | 109.6312 | 104.7655 |
| 2011Q3 | 100.3728 | 110.3410 | 105.1122 |
| 2011Q4 | 101.5372 | 111.0575 | 105.4760 |
| 2012Q1 | 102.3318 | 111.7807 | 105.8527 |
| 2012Q2 | 102.7722 | 112.5091 | 106.2535 |
| 2012Q3 | 102.9107 | 113.2417 | 106.6690 |
| 2012Q4 | 103.0270 | 113.9768 | 107.0979 |
| 2013Q1 | 103.9402 | 114.7120 | 107.5408 |
| 2013Q2 | 104.0687 | 115.4479 | 107.9907 |
| 2013Q3 | 104.8843 | 116.1831 | 108.4483 |
| 2013Q4 | 105.7210 | 116.9182 | 108.9109 |
| 2014Q1 | 105.4550 | 117.6533 | 109.3717 |
| 2014Q2 | 106.7774 | 118.3868 | 109.8381 |
| 2014Q3 | 108.0681 | 119.1202 | 110.3084 |
| 2014Q4 | 108.5780 | 119.8528 | 110.7838 |
| 2015Q1 | 109.4705 | 120.5862 | 111.2650 |
| 2015Q2 | 110.3737 | 121.3188 | 111.7544 |
| 2015Q3 | 110.6393 | 122.0531 | 112.2451 |
| 2015Q4 | 110.7491 | 122.7891 | 112.7345 |
| 2016Q1 | 111.1759 | 123.5276 | 113.2195 |
| 2016Q2 | 111.8046 | 124.2687 | 113.6891 |
| 2016Q3 | 112.3385 | 125.0131 | 114.1569 |
| 2016Q4 | 112.8308 | 125.7618 | 114.6246 |
| 2017Q1 | 113.3300 | 126.5147 | 115.0911 |
| 2017Q2 | 114.1687 | 127.2710 | 115.5608 |
| 2017Q3 | 114.9653 | 128.0324 | 116.0432 |
| 2017Q4 | 115.6188 | 128.7989 | 116.5447 |
| 2018Q1 | 116.2549 | 129.5696 | 117.0813 |
| 2018Q2 | 117.4436 | 130.3471 | 117.6568 |
| 2018Q3 | 118.4595 | 131.1279 | 118.2558 |
| 2018Q4 | 119.2023 | 131.9130 | 118.8733 |
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.
Source: Author’s analysis of data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Table 1.1.6. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars,” National Income and Product Accounts, accessed June 2019, and data from the Congressional Budget Office (on potential GDP) in The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018, January 2008, and The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029, January 2019
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