Estimated effects of proposed federal minimum-wage increase to $10.10 by 2016, fully phased in, by state
| State | Estimated workforce1 | Directly affected2 | Indirectly affected3 | Total affected | Share of workforce affected | Increased wages for all affected workers4 | GDP impact5 | Jobs impact: Full-time employment6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 130,635,000 | 16,718,000 | 11,101,000 | 27,819,000 | 21.3% | $34,987,008,000 | $22,146,777,000 | 84,800 |
| Alabama | 1,936,000 | 323,000 | 139,000 | 462,000 | 23.9% | $819,951,000 | $519,029,000 | 1,900 |
| Alaska | 303,000 | 28,000 | 16,000 | 44,000 | 14.5% | $68,073,000 | $43,089,000 | 200 |
| Arizona | 2,466,000 | 331,000 | 186,000 | 517,000 | 21.0% | $677,190,000 | $428,661,000 | 1,600 |
| Arkansas | 1,113,000 | 227,000 | 88,000 | 315,000 | 28.3% | $615,085,000 | $389,349,000 | 1,400 |
| California | 14,994,000 | 94,000 | 2,614,000 | 2,708,000 | 18.1% | $458,628,000 | $290,311,000 | 2,200 |
| Colorado | 2,260,000 | 269,000 | 141,000 | 410,000 | 18.1% | $578,138,000 | $365,962,000 | 1,500 |
| Connecticut | 1,540,000 | 140,000 | 87,000 | 227,000 | 14.7% | $158,511,000 | $100,337,000 | 500 |
| Delaware | 379,000 | 55,000 | 23,000 | 78,000 | 20.6% | $112,230,000 | $71,042,000 | 200 |
| District of Columbia | 317,000 | 23,000 | 12,000 | 35,000 | 11.0% | $48,045,000 | $30,412,000 | 100 |
| Florida | 7,705,000 | 1,067,000 | 710,000 | 1,777,000 | 23.1% | $2,178,731,000 | $1,379,137,000 | 5,400 |
| Georgia | 4,038,000 | 571,000 | 340,000 | 911,000 | 22.6% | $1,371,822,000 | $868,363,000 | 2,900 |
| Hawaii | 552,000 | 59,000 | 40,000 | 99,000 | 17.9% | $127,199,000 | $80,517,000 | 300 |
| Idaho | 615,000 | 112,000 | 51,000 | 163,000 | 26.5% | $269,464,000 | $170,571,000 | 600 |
| Illinois | 5,494,000 | 733,000 | 394,000 | 1,127,000 | 20.5% | $1,359,415,000 | $860,509,000 | 3,900 |
| Indiana | 2,726,000 | 436,000 | 201,000 | 637,000 | 23.4% | $954,820,000 | $604,401,000 | 2,200 |
| Iowa | 1,423,000 | 216,000 | 90,000 | 306,000 | 21.5% | $430,462,000 | $272,483,000 | 900 |
| Kansas | 1,285,000 | 201,000 | 88,000 | 289,000 | 22.5% | $423,441,000 | $268,038,000 | 1,000 |
| Kentucky | 1,794,000 | 304,000 | 158,000 | 462,000 | 25.8% | $664,748,000 | $ 420,786,000 | 1,400 |
| Louisiana | 1,745,000 | 320,000 | 143,000 | 463,000 | 26.5% | $773,419,000 | $489,574,000 | 1,700 |
| Maine | 573,000 | 84,000 | 37,000 | 121,000 | 21.1% | $153,746,000 | $97,321,000 | 400 |
| Maryland | 2,717,000 | 306,000 | 140,000 | 446,000 | 16.4% | $677,281,000 | $428,719,000 | 1,600 |
| Massachusetts | 2,969,000 | 303,000 | 205,000 | 508,000 | 17.1% | $596,401,000 | $377,522,000 | 1,600 |
| Michigan | 3,916,000 | 641,000 | 299,000 | 940,000 | 24.0% | $1,399,338,000 | $885,781,000 | 3,300 |
| Minnesota | 2,564,000 | 321,000 | 141,000 | 462,000 | 18.0% | $614,388,000 | $388,908,000 | 1,500 |
| Mississippi | 1,082,000 | 185,000 | 95,000 | 280,000 | 25.9% | $465,334,000 | $294,557,000 | 1,000 |
| Missouri | 2,549,000 | 373,000 | 205,000 | 578,000 | 22.7% | $821,404,000 | $519,948,000 | 1,900 |
| Montana | 400,000 | 60,000 | 28,000 | 88,000 | 22.0% | $101,452,000 | $64,219,000 | 300 |
| Nebraska | 897,000 | 122,000 | 68,000 | 190,000 | 21.2% | $237,626,000 | $150,417,000 | 500 |
| Nevada | 1,155,000 | 158,000 | 104,000 | 262,000 | 22.7% | $315,847,000 | $199,931,000 | 900 |
| New Hampshire | 637,000 | 77,000 | 36,000 | 113,000 | 17.7% | $143,575,000 | $90,883,000 | 400 |
| New Jersey | 3,899,000 | 469,000 | 255,000 | 724,000 | 18.6% | $584,498,000 | $369,987,000 | 1,800 |
| New Mexico | 780,000 | 104,000 | 43,000 | 147,000 | 18.8% | $201,561,000 | $127,588,000 | 500 |
| New York | 8,137,000 | 987,000 | 582,000 | 1,569,000 | 19.3% | $1,037,532,000 | $656,758,000 | 3,100 |
| North Carolina | 3,970,000 | 735,000 | 317,000 | 1,052,000 | 26.5% | $1,664,257,000 | $1,053,474,000 | 3,700 |
| North Dakota | 344,000 | 37,000 | 23,000 | 60,000 | 17.4% | $74,536,000 | $47,181,000 | 200 |
| Ohio | 4,863,000 | 815,000 | 332,000 | 1,147,000 | 23.6% | $1,544,047,000 | $977,382,000 | 3,900 |
| Oklahoma | 1,543,000 | 256,000 | 111,000 | 367,000 | 23.8% | $561,893,000 | $355,679,000 | 1,300 |
| Oregon | 1,523,000 | 173,000 | 96,000 | 269,000 | 17.7% | $169,537,000 | $107,317,000 | 800 |
| Pennsylvania | 5,540,000 | 721,000 | 353,000 | 1,074,000 | 19.4% | $1,611,687,000 | $1,020,198,000 | 3,800 |
| Rhode Island | 469,000 | 65,000 | 26,000 | 91,000 | 19.4% | $122,847,000 | $77,763,000 | 300 |
| South Carolina | 1,873,000 | 301,000 | 148,000 | 449,000 | 24.0% | $710,820,000 | $449,948,000 | 1,600 |
| South Dakota | 363,000 | 60,000 | 31,000 | 91,000 | 25.1% | $126,350,000 | $79,979,000 | 300 |
| Tennessee | 2,624,000 | 437,000 | 198,000 | 635,000 | 24.2% | $987,829,000 | $625,296,000 | 2,100 |
| Texas | 10,927,000 | 1,945,000 | 920,000 | 2,865,000 | 26.2% | $4,977,598,000 | $3,150,819,000 | 11,000 |
| Utah | 1,231,000 | 191,000 | 80,000 | 271,000 | 22.0% | $381,270,000 | $241,343,000 | 900 |
| Vermont | 291,000 | 29,000 | 18,000 | 47,000 | 16.2% | $38,409,000 | $24,313,000 | 100 |
| Virginia | 3,657,000 | 511,000 | 233,000 | 744,000 | 20.3% | $1,261,582,000 | $798,581,000 | 2,800 |
| Washington | 2,885,000 | 188,000 | 212,000 | 400,000 | 13.9% | $150,020,000 | $94,963,000 | 700 |
| West Virginia | 689,000 | 120,000 | 48,000 | 168,000 | 24.4% | $287,648,000 | $182,081,000 | 700 |
| Wisconsin | 2,622,000 | 404,000 | 183,000 | 587,000 | 22.4% | $816,060,000 | $516,566,000 | 1,800 |
| Wyoming | 262,000 | 33,000 | 15,000 | 48,000 | 18.3% | $61,263,000 | $38,779,000 | 100 |
1The estimated workforce includes CPS respondents who were 16 years old or older, employed but not self-employed, and for whom a valid hourly wage is reported or can be imputed from weekly earnings and average weekly hours. Consequently, this estimate represents the identifiable wage-earning workforce and tends to understate the size of the full workforce.
2Directly affected workers are those whose wages would rise because the new minimum wage rate would exceed their current hourly pay.
3Indirectly affected workers have an hourly wage just above the new minimum wage (between the new minimum wage and the new minimum wage plus the dollar amount of the increase over the preceding minimum wage). They would receive a raise as employers adjusted pay scales upward to reflect the new minimum wage.
4 The total annual amount of increased wages of directly and indirectly affected workers assumes they work 52 weeks per year.
5A national model is used to estimate the GDP impact of workers' increased earnings. The total state stimulus may be lower than this estimate because workers in each state will not necessarily spend all of their increased earnings in the state. However, we can assume that most of the increased earnings will be spent in-state, and thus most of the jobs created will be in-state. GDP figures are cumulative three-year totals.
6The increased economic activity from these additional wages adds not just jobs but also hours for people who already have jobs (work hours for people with jobs also dropped in the downturn). Full-time employment estimates take that into account, essentially by taking the number of total hours added (including both hours from new jobs and more hours for people who already have jobs) and dividing by 40, to get full-time-equivalent jobs added. The estimates reflect the jobs created or sustained in the final year of the increases and assume full-time employment requires $133,000 in additional GDP.
Note: State totals may not sum to national total due to rounding. GDP and jobs impact estimation methods can be found in Cooper and Hall (2013) and Bivens (2011).
Source: Author's analysis of 2013 Harkin-Miller proposal using Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata from 2012Q4 through 2013Q3
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