Reclaiming labor’s lost share still requires significantly faster wage growth: How long would it take to return to pre Great Recession labor share levels at various paces of wage growth?
| Date | 3.2 percent | 3.5 percent | 4 percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007Q4 | 78.7777% | 78.7777% | 78.7777% |
| 2008Q1 | 79.2193% | 79.2193% | 79.2193% |
| 2008Q2 | 79.3496% | 79.3496% | 79.3496% |
| 2008Q3 | 79.5998% | 79.5998% | 79.5998% |
| 2008Q4 | 79.5952% | 79.5952% | 79.5952% |
| 2009Q1 | 79.5905% | 79.5905% | 79.5905% |
| 2009Q2 | 79.0456% | 79.0456% | 79.0456% |
| 2009Q3 | 77.8820% | 77.8820% | 77.8820% |
| 2009Q4 | 76.7360% | 76.7360% | 76.7360% |
| 2010Q1 | 75.5643% | 75.5643% | 75.5643% |
| 2010Q2 | 75.9344% | 75.9344% | 75.9344% |
| 2010Q3 | 74.0393% | 74.0393% | 74.0393% |
| 2010Q4 | 74.1481% | 74.1481% | 74.1481% |
| 2011Q1 | 76.1685% | 76.1685% | 76.1685% |
| 2011Q2 | 74.9298% | 74.9298% | 74.9298% |
| 2011Q3 | 75.0366% | 75.0366% | 75.0366% |
| 2011Q4 | 73.3147% | 73.3147% | 73.3147% |
| 2012Q1 | 72.9571% | 72.9571% | 72.9571% |
| 2012Q2 | 73.2436% | 73.2436% | 73.2436% |
| 2012Q3 | 73.5896% | 73.5896% | 73.5896% |
| 2012Q4 | 74.3623% | 74.3623% | 74.3623% |
| 2013Q1 | 73.9712% | 73.9712% | 73.9712% |
| 2013Q2 | 74.0949% | 74.0949% | 74.0949% |
| 2013Q3 | 74.1665% | 74.1665% | 74.1665% |
| 2013Q4 | 73.6984% | 73.6984% | 73.6984% |
| 2014Q1 | 74.9508% | 74.9508% | 74.9508% |
| 2014Q2 | 73.1916% | 73.1916% | 73.1916% |
| 2014Q3 | 72.4188% | 72.4188% | 72.4188% |
| 2014Q4 | 72.8773% | 72.8773% | 72.8773% |
| 2015Q1 | 73.3065% | 73.3065% | 73.3065% |
| 2015Q2 | 73.5011% | 73.5011% | 73.5011% |
| 2015Q3 | 74.0471% | 74.0471% | 74.0471% |
| 2015Q4 | 74.6307% | 74.6307% | 74.6307% |
| 2016Q1 | 74.5656% | 74.5656% | 74.5656% |
| 2016Q2 | 74.5805% | 74.5805% | 74.5805% |
| 2016Q3 | 74.6087% | 74.6087% | 74.6087% |
| 2016Q4 | 74.8150% | 74.8150% | 74.8150% |
| 2017Q1 | 75.3236% | 75.3236% | 75.3236% |
| 2017Q2 | 75.1285% | 75.1285% | 75.1285% |
| 2017Q3 | 75.6357% | 75.6357% | 75.6357% |
| 2017Q4 | 75.6830% | 75.6830% | 75.6830% |
| 2018Q1 | 75.6393% | 75.6393% | 75.6393% |
| 2018Q2 | 75.3031% | 75.3031% | 75.3031% |
| 2018Q3 | 74.7009% | 74.7009% | 74.7009% |
| 2018Q4 | 74.7194% | 74.7750% | 74.8676% |
| 2019Q1 | 74.7379% | 74.8492% | 75.0348% |
| 2019Q2 | 74.7565% | 74.9235% | 75.2023% |
| 2019Q3 | 74.7750% | 74.9978% | 75.3702% |
| 2019Q4 | 74.7936% | 75.0722% | 75.5385% |
| 2020Q1 | 74.8121% | 75.1467% | 75.7072% |
| 2020Q2 | 74.8307% | 75.2213% | 75.8762% |
| 2020Q3 | 74.8492% | 75.2959% | 76.0456% |
| 2020Q4 | 74.8678% | 75.3706% | 76.2154% |
| 2021Q1 | 74.8864% | 75.4454% | 76.3856% |
| 2021Q2 | 74.9050% | 75.5203% | 76.5561% |
| 2021Q3 | 74.9235% | 75.5952% | 76.7270% |
| 2021Q4 | 74.9421% | 75.6703% | 76.8983% |
| 2022Q1 | 74.9607% | 75.7453% | 77.0700% |
| 2022Q2 | 74.9793% | 75.8205% | 77.2421% |
| 2022Q3 | 74.9979% | 75.8957% | 77.4146% |
| 2022Q4 | 75.0165% | 75.9711% | 77.5874% |
| 2023Q1 | 75.0351% | 76.0464% | 77.7606% |
| 2023Q2 | 75.0537% | 76.1219% | 77.9342% |
| 2023Q3 | 75.0724% | 76.1974% | 78.1082% |
| 2023Q4 | 75.0910% | 76.2730% | 78.2826% |
| 2024Q1 | 75.1096% | 76.3487% | 78.4574% |
| 2024Q2 | 75.1282% | 76.4245% | 78.6326% |
| 2024Q3 | 75.1469% | 76.5003% | 78.8082% |
| 2024Q4 | 75.1655% | 76.5762% | |
| 2025Q1 | 75.1842% | 76.6522% | |
| 2025Q2 | 75.2028% | 76.7283% | |
| 2025Q3 | 75.2215% | 76.8044% | |
| 2025Q4 | 75.2401% | 76.8806% | |
| 2026Q1 | 75.2588% | 76.9569% | |
| 2026Q2 | 75.2775% | 77.0333% | |
| 2026Q3 | 75.2961% | 77.1097% | |
| 2026Q4 | 75.3148% | 77.1863% | |
| 2027Q1 | 75.3335% | 77.2629% | |
| 2027Q2 | 75.3522% | 77.3395% | |
| 2027Q3 | 75.3709% | 77.4163% | |
| 2027Q4 | 75.3896% | 77.4931% | |
| 2028Q1 | 75.4083% | 77.5700% | |
| 2028Q2 | 75.4270% | 77.6470% | |
| 2028Q3 | 75.4457% | 77.7240% | |
| 2028Q4 | 75.4644% | 77.8011% | |
| 2029Q1 | 75.4831% | 77.8783% | |
| 2029Q2 | 75.5019% | 77.9556% | |
| 2029Q3 | 75.5206% | 78.0330% | |
| 2029Q4 | 75.5393% | 78.1104% | |
| 2030Q1 | 75.5581% | 78.1879% | |
| 2030Q2 | 75.5768% | 78.2655% | |
| 2030Q3 | 75.5956% | 78.3432% | |
| 2030Q4 | 75.6143% | 78.4209% | |
| 2031Q1 | 75.6331% | 78.4987% | |
| 2031Q2 | 75.6518% | 78.5766% | |
| 2031Q3 | 75.6706% | 78.6546% | |
| 2031Q4 | 75.6894% | 78.7326% | |
| 2032Q1 | 75.7082% | 78.8108% |
Note: Sources and methods for data through third quarter 2018 the same as Figure A. All projections after that date assume annual productivity growth of 1.1 percent - the pace that characterized productivity growth from the beginning of 2017 to the most recent GDP data (third quarter of 2018). All projections also assume that the Fed hits its stated 2 percent inflation target. The 3.2 percent growth rate is slightly faster than what characterized wage growth for all workers as measured by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program of the BLS.
Source: EPI labor measure is analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (Tables 1.14 and 6.16D). BLS NFB measure is from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Productivity and Costs (LPC) program, series # PRS85006173. BLS labor share measure retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS85006173, January 24, 2019.
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