Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning. Read the full thread here. 

Today's jobs report came in weaker than expected. The economy added 57k jobs in June and prior months were revised down. April and May are a combined 74k lower than previously reported. Analysts believe the World Cup added 40k to June numbers—without that, job growth would have been 17k.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 8:48 AM

The household survey came in even weaker. While the topline unemployment rate ticked down, it happened for the wrong reasons as labor force participation fell by 720k while employment fell by 507k. Even the prime-age employment-to-population ratio, which had remained resilient, fell 0.6ppts in June.

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 8:58 AM

Given expectations around the World Cup, it's surprising to me that leisure and hospitality fell by 61k in June (and May growth was revised down by 30k). Perhaps those gains are offset by reduced discretionary spending as real wages fall.
#NumbersDay #EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 9:18 AM

We won't get the inflation data for June until July 14, but recent price data suggest year over year real wages likely fell in June. Workers and their families are finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet and real wages are most surely now below where they were in January 2025.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 9:18 AM

Manufacturing employment is crawling along, gaining 3k jobs in June, all in durable goods. After downward revisions, manufacturing lost jobs in May.

Since January 2025 when Trump took office, the manufacturing sector has lost 75,000 jobs.

#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 9:30 AM

While there's been little change this year, federal employment has shrunk an alarming 324,000 jobs since January 2025. The vital services federal employees provide cannot be done without these essential workers.
#NumbersDay #EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 9:31 AM