Report | Health

How many jobs could the AHCA cost your state?: The AHCA’s drag on potential job growth

Press release

Summary

The report provides a rough estimate of the potential drag on job growth that will occur if Congress enacts the American Health Care Act (AHCA), which repeals the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Specifically, it estimates where we would be on jobs if the AHCA is enacted and everything else stays the same (the “all-else-equal effect”) relative to the jobs picture under the ACA in coming years, by state and congressional district (CD). Our methodology and rationale were explained in detail in a report (Bivens 2017) released in January that estimated the drag on aggregate demand, and hence on job growth, that would have resulted from a partial repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Our current methodology adjusts for the specific provisions in the AHCA but the overall forces remain the same. In short, by repealing the ACA and enacting the AHCA, Congress would impose a large spending cut as subsidies to purchase health care under the ACA give way to smaller tax credits under the AHCA. The benefit cuts would come mostly out of the pockets of cash-constrained households that will be likely to significantly cut back their spending in response to lower disposable income, while the tax cuts in the ACA repeal would disproportionately go to high-income households who tend to save a significant portion of increases in disposable income. On net, the shortfall in spending (or aggregate demand) would translate into slower job growth. Our full results are provided in Figures A and B.

Key findings are:

  • Nationally, all-else-equal, the AHCA could slow job growth by 409,000 in 2019, by 1.1 million in 2020, by 1.6 million in 2021, and by 1.8 million in 2022.
  • The 15 states with the largest reductions in job growth, ranked by jobs-reduced expressed as a share of the total employed population in 2015 are: New Mexico, Kentucky, Montana, Oregon, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Louisiana, New Jersey, Arizona, Washington, Colorado, Nevada, Vermont, Michigan, and Ohio.
  • The degree to which the AHCA drags on job growth varies dramatically by congressional district. On average, congressional districts experience a potential drag on jobs of 4,000 in 2022, but in a couple of districts there were essentially zero job-growth reductions and in at least one district the job-growth reduction reached 20,000.
  • As a general rule, states and congressional districts with large Medicaid spending fare the worst under the AHCA replacement of the ACA, while states with a high share of rich households do better. This is because the Medicaid cuts drag the most on growth, while the only countervailing stimulus provided by the AHCA is tax cuts that disproportionately boost the incomes for the richest households.
Figure 1

How many jobs could the AHCA cost your state?: Potential fewer jobs per state due to drag on growth from the AHCA, 2017–2022

State Average annual job loss as share of state employment 2017 potential job loss 2018 potential job loss 2019 potential job loss 2020 potential job loss 2021 potential job loss 2022 potential job loss
Alabama 0.28% 824 1,680 2,685 7,318 10,168 10,999
Alaska 0.32% 101 243 433 1,416 2,018 2,324
Arizona 1.09% 2,272 9,657 14,274 38,106 52,359 60,174
Arkansas 0.63% 676 2,545 3,783 10,060 13,826 15,745
California 0.61% 10,714 30,513 46,280 130,712 183,356 207,072
Colorado 1.04% 1,992 8,507 12,778 35,082 48,443 55,989
Connecticut 0.54% 880 2,198 3,565 11,728 16,736 19,212
Delaware 0.57% 235 774 1,202 3,381 4,698 5,362
Washington D.C. 0.15% 135 67 303 1,542 2,321 2,691
Florida 0.57% 7,899 16,232 24,922 63,356 86,987 92,017
Georgia 0.43% 2,689 5,983 9,147 24,702 34,246 37,180
Hawaii 0.46% 228 792 1,288 3,908 5,494 6,389
Idaho 0.60% 554 1,464 2,178 5,500 7,516 8,182
Illinois 0.59% 3,217 10,385 15,954 45,842 63,956 73,076
Indiana 0.49% 1,482 4,873 7,349 19,680 27,116 30,610
Iowa 0.33% 468 1,483 2,335 6,682 9,314 10,639
Kansas 0.20% 457 711 1,250 3,735 5,282 5,698
Kentucky 2.19% 2,747 14,402 20,755 54,112 73,919 85,647
Louisiana 1.16% 1,932 7,703 11,319 29,684 40,677 46,379
Maine 0.32% 355 615 976 2,531 3,497 3,637
Maryland 0.73% 1,664 5,139 8,442 25,649 36,094 41,668
Massachusetts 0.45% 1,732 3,872 6,551 20,978 29,841 33,901
Michigan 0.74% 3,003 10,497 15,712 41,877 57,618 65,286
Minnesota 0.40% 876 3,308 4,997 15,146 21,300 24,785
Mississippi 0.42% 540 1,561 2,360 6,234 8,579 9,544
Missouri 0.33% 1,358 2,975 4,509 12,145 16,835 18,207
Montana 1.80% 653 2,897 4,195 10,844 14,807 16,956
Nebraska 0.13% 313 322 608 1,803 2,563 2,596
Nevada 0.94% 999 4,074 6,006 15,887 21,800 24,938
New Hampshire 0.62% 423 1,221 1,920 5,417 7,539 8,522
New Jersey 1.14% 3,622 13,705 20,877 59,926 83,463 96,413
New Mexico 2.94% 1,608 8,375 12,053 31,328 42,772 49,513
New York 0.37% 2,126 11,824 16,144 43,426 60,963 71,639
North Carolina 0.60% 3,068 8,479 12,878 34,015 46,838 51,882
North Dakota 0.46% 188 601 934 2,624 3,646 4,151
Ohio 0.72% 3,110 12,708 18,983 51,385 70,803 81,385
Oklahoma 0.20% 569 877 1,510 4,365 6,144 6,544
Oregon 1.77% 2,380 11,125 16,173 42,352 57,948 66,748
Pennsylvania 0.43% 2,825 7,259 11,503 32,922 45,986 51,586
Rhode Island 1.31% 508 2,101 3,114 8,326 11,447 13,136
South Carolina 0.23% 927 1,426 2,344 6,267 8,718 9,011
South Dakota 0.13% 108 125 239 748 1,069 1,128
Tennessee 0.57% 1,700 5,453 8,239 22,057 30,397 34,241
Texas 0.26% 5,484 8,780 13,982 41,197 58,345 62,143
Utah 0.32% 812 1,465 2,313 6,006 8,292 8,680
Vermont 0.74% 229 760 1,137 3,011 4,140 4,664
Virginia 0.19% 1,677 2,792 3,676 8,882 13,364 13,768
Washington 1.04% 2,612 10,759 16,175 44,300 61,163 70,501
West Virginia 1.45% 769 3,832 5,545 14,499 19,823 22,914
Wisconsin 0.19% 1,056 1,528 2,618 7,380 10,360 10,838
Wyoming 0.16% 90 110 199 582 824 853

Map is colored to illustrate relative impact by showing average annual job loss as a share of total state employment.

The analysis is done at the congressional district (CD) level, then the summation of effects in each CD is undertaken to get statewide effects. For notes on the CD analysis, see the table note to Table 1.

Source: Author's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2016a), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS 2016e), and BLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b).

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Figure 2

How many jobs could the AHCA cost in your congressional district?: Potential fewer jobs by congressional district due to drag on growth from the AHCA, 2017–2022

State District Representative 2019 potential job loss 2020 potential job loss 2021 potential job loss 2022 potential job loss
Alabama 1 Bradley Byrne 468 1,229 1,696 1,820
Alabama 2 Martha Roby 375 1,001 1,384 1,505
Alabama 3 Mike Rogers 404 1,071 1,478 1,613
Alabama 4 Robert B. Aderholt 429 1,108 1,522 1,647
Alabama 5 Mo Brooks 307 910 1,287 1,376
Alabama 6 Gary J. Palmer 174 662 974 1,032
Alabama 7 Terri A. Sewell 528 1,338 1,827 2,006
Alaska Statewide Don Young 433 1,416 2,018 2,324
Arizona 1 Tom O’Halleran 1,875 4,911 6,719 7,746
Arizona 2 Martha McSally 1,377 3,696 5,085 5,838
Arizona 3 Raúl M. Grijalva 2,182 5,606 7,640 8,789
Arizona 4 Paul A. Gosar 1,498 3,885 5,310 6,074
Arizona 5 Andy Biggs 828 2,375 3,313 3,778
Arizona 6 David Schweikert 795 2,571 3,658 4,214
Arizona 7 Ruben Gallego 3,171 8,148 11,101 12,811
Arizona 8 Trent Franks 958 2,600 3,588 4,084
Arizona 9 Kyrsten Sinema 1,592 4,314 5,946 6,841
Arkansas 1 Eric A. “Rick” Crawford 1,085 2,815 3,849 4,390
Arkansas 2 J. French Hill 777 2,127 2,941 3,342
Arkansas 3 Steve Womack 869 2,380 3,290 3,739
Arkansas 4 Bruce Westerman 1,052 2,738 3,746 4,275
California 1 Doug LaMalfa 1,096 2,880 3,954 4,460
California 2 Jared Huffman 502 1,838 2,670 3,013
California 3 John Garamendi 886 2,440 3,380 3,830
California 4 Tom McClintock 553 1,722 2,444 2,718
California 5 Mike Thompson 687 2,041 2,871 3,223
California 6 Doris O. Matsui 1,351 3,540 4,852 5,517
California 7 Ami Bera 725 2,093 2,928 3,293
California 8 Paul Cook 1,262 3,254 4,447 5,036
California 9 Jerry McNerney 1,122 2,988 4,110 4,655
California 10 Jeff Denham 1,072 2,824 3,878 4,382
California 11 Mark DeSaulnier 320 1,494 2,235 2,538
California 12 Nancy Pelosi 76 1,283 2,065 2,370
California 13 Barbara Lee 772 2,483 3,536 4,009
California 14 Jackie Speier 1 802 1,329 1,509
California 15 Eric Swalwell 197 1,159 1,777 1,981
California 16 Jim Costa 1,785 4,574 6,235 7,128
California 17 Ro Khanna 63 707 1,219 1,379
California 18 Anna G. Eshoo 543 21 437 539
California 19 Zoe Lofgren 484 1,754 2,544 2,883
California 20 Jimmy Panetta 942 2,623 3,643 4,107
California 21 David G. Valadao 1,658 4,250 5,793 6,635
California 22 Devin Nunes 1,144 3,075 4,235 4,829
California 23 Kevin McCarthy 1,039 2,800 3,859 4,392
California 24 Salud O. Carbajal 834 2,405 3,364 3,786
California 25 Stephen Knight 781 2,270 3,180 3,561
California 26 Julia Brownley 585 1,878 2,678 2,992
California 27 Judy Chu 585 1,914 2,737 3,064
California 28 Adam B. Schiff 726 2,332 3,321 3,752
California 29 Tony Cárdenas 1,405 3,589 4,897 5,528
California 30 Brad Sherman 518 1,857 2,690 3,025
California 31 Pete Aguilar 1,173 3,112 4,277 4,852
California 32 Grace F. Napolitano 1,018 2,643 3,622 4,048
California 33 Ted Lieu 310 486 1,034 1,191
California 34 vacant 1,702 4,385 5,990 6,803
California 35 Norma J. Torres 1,202 3,065 4,181 4,719
California 36 Raul Ruiz 1,208 3,219 4,429 5,017
California 37 Karen Bass 1,152 3,263 4,543 5,156
California 38 Linda T. Sánchez 892 2,354 3,239 3,607
California 39 Edward R. Royce 549 1,768 2,524 2,809
California 40 Lucille Roybal-Allard 1,766 4,465 6,075 6,892
California 41 Mark Takano 1,290 3,338 4,566 5,170
California 42 Ken Calvert 664 1,862 2,593 2,888
California 43 Maxine Waters 1,270 3,340 4,585 5,176
California 44 Nanette Diaz Barragán 1,532 3,886 5,293 5,985
California 45 Mimi Walters 175 1,191 1,846 2,060
California 46 J. Luis Correa 1,262 3,232 4,414 4,960
California 47 Alan S. Lowenthal 1,026 2,827 3,919 4,410
California 48 Dana Rohrabacher 294 1,447 2,180 2,443
California 49 Darrell E. Issa 386 1,590 2,349 2,631
California 50 Duncan Hunter 920 2,509 3,472 3,883
California 51 Juan Vargas 1,618 4,061 5,522 6,205
California 52 Scott H. Peters 258 1,305 1,973 2,201
California 53 Susan A. Davis 897 2,469 3,424 3,830
Colorado 1 Diana DeGette 2,344 6,472 8,944 10,362
Colorado 2 Jared Polis 1,597 4,573 6,368 7,344
Colorado 3 Scott R. Tipton 2,339 6,134 8,395 9,669
Colorado 4 Ken Buck 1,585 4,408 6,103 7,055
Colorado 5 Doug Lamborn 1,722 4,656 6,408 7,421
Colorado 6 Mike Coffman 1,449 4,134 5,750 6,656
Colorado 7 Ed Perlmutter 1,743 4,705 6,476 7,482
Connecticut 1 John B. Larson 982 2,879 4,029 4,616
Connecticut 2 Joe Courtney 632 1,952 2,760 3,136
Connecticut 3 Rosa L. DeLauro 953 2,768 3,869 4,426
Connecticut 4 James A. Himes 145 1,504 2,372 2,784
Connecticut 5 Elizabeth H. Esty 853 2,626 3,706 4,249
Delaware Statewide Lisa Blunt Rochester 1,202 3,381 4,698 5,362
DC Statewide Eleanor Holmes Norton 303 1,542 2,321 2,691
Florida 1 Matt Gaetz 557 1,482 2,051 2,208
Florida 2 Neal P. Dunn 652 1,696 2,333 2,533
Florida 3 Ted S. Yoho 699 1,798 2,469 2,667
Florida 4 John H. Rutherford 574 1,563 2,177 2,309
Florida 5 Al Lawson, Jr. 907 2,234 3,034 3,319
Florida 6 Ron DeSantis 777 2,037 2,813 2,983
Florida 7 Stephanie N. Murphy 845 2,176 2,998 3,147
Florida 8 Bill Posey 720 1,862 2,565 2,722
Florida 9 Darren Soto 1,096 2,650 3,597 3,817
Florida 10 Val Butler Demings 969 2,462 3,383 3,550
Florida 11 Daniel Webster 807 1,983 2,699 2,879
Florida 12 Gus M. Bilirakis 639 1,702 2,361 2,492
Florida 13 Charlie Crist 689 1,812 2,506 2,653
Florida 14 Kathy Castor 808 2,107 2,903 3,136
Florida 15 Dennis A. Ross 678 1,773 2,446 2,615
Florida 16 Vern Buchanan 612 1,677 2,339 2,477
Florida 17 Thomas J. Rooney 788 1,953 2,663 2,853
Florida 18 Brian J. Mast 807 2,168 3,013 3,155
Florida 19 Francis Rooney 671 1,897 2,660 2,813
Florida 20 Alcee L. Hastings 1,533 3,616 4,880 5,170
Florida 21 Lois Frankel 910 2,374 3,284 3,411
Florida 22 Theodore E. Deutch 1,024 2,775 3,868 4,028
Florida 23 Debbie Wasserman Schultz 1,120 2,927 4,050 4,207
Florida 24 Frederica S. Wilson 1,717 4,082 5,522 5,828
Florida 25 Mario Diaz-Balart 1,375 3,310 4,494 4,710
Florida 26 Carlos Curbelo 1,482 3,544 4,808 5,013
Florida 27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 1,468 3,697 5,070 5,321
Georgia 1 Earl L. “Buddy” Carter 682 1,773 2,439 2,653
Georgia 2 Sanford D. Bishop, Jr. 761 1,946 2,660 2,961
Georgia 3 A. Drew Ferguson, IV 561 1,512 2,095 2,275
Georgia 4 Henry C. “Hank” Johnson, Jr. 918 2,285 3,117 3,348
Georgia 5 John Lewis 751 2,122 2,966 3,241
Georgia 6 vacant 81 876 1,402 1,473
Georgia 7 Rob Woodall 745 2,006 2,789 2,940
Georgia 8 Austin Scott 633 1,643 2,254 2,502
Georgia 9 Doug Collins 679 1,755 2,409 2,624
Georgia 10 Jody B. Hice 669 1,736 2,385 2,606
Georgia 11 Barry Loudermilk 438 1,395 1,997 2,131
Georgia 12 Rick W. Allen 751 1,928 2,640 2,907
Georgia 13 David Scott 843 2,112 2,886 3,106
Georgia 14 Tom Graves 636 1,613 2,206 2,413
Hawaii 1 Colleen Hanabusa 422 1,445 2,071 2,424
Hawaii 2 Tulsi Gabbard 866 2,463 3,424 3,965
Idaho 1 Raúl R. Labrador 1,094 2,743 3,743 4,069
Idaho 2 Michael K. Simpson 1,084 2,757 3,773 4,113
Illinois 1 Bobby L. Rush 1,376 3,656 5,021 5,744
Illinois 2 Robin L. Kelly 1,481 3,850 5,264 6,023
Illinois 3 Daniel Lipinski 821 2,289 3,177 3,606
Illinois 4 Luis V. Gutiérrez 1,593 4,132 5,646 6,464
Illinois 5 Mike Quigley 354 1,574 2,339 2,691
Illinois 6 Peter J. Roskam 9 722 1,202 1,358
Illinois 7 Danny K. Davis 1,480 4,271 5,955 6,875
Illinois 8 Raja Krishnamoorthi 766 2,126 2,951 3,330
Illinois 9 Janice D. Schakowsky 501 1,860 2,701 3,101
Illinois 10 Bradley Scott Schneider 377 1,552 2,286 2,609
Illinois 11 Bill Foster 674 1,994 2,799 3,173
Illinois 12 Mike Bost 1,238 3,265 4,476 5,134
Illinois 13 Rodney Davis 1,146 3,092 4,258 4,891
Illinois 14 Randy Hultgren 327 1,255 1,837 2,066
Illinois 15 John Shimkus 1,053 2,770 3,798 4,328
Illinois 16 Adam Kinzinger 857 2,303 3,173 3,604
Illinois 17 Cheri Bustos 1,259 3,267 4,466 5,105
Illinois 18 Darin LaHood 642 1,864 2,605 2,974
Indiana 1 Peter J. Visclosky 863 2,305 3,173 3,594
Indiana 2 Jackie Walorski 874 2,297 3,152 3,557
Indiana 3 Jim Banks 769 2,050 2,822 3,184
Indiana 4 Todd Rokita 732 1,953 2,690 3,030
Indiana 5 Susan W. Brooks 393 1,380 1,994 2,230
Indiana 6 Luke Messer 827 2,165 2,968 3,354
Indiana 7 André Carson 1,284 3,295 4,496 5,107
Indiana 8 Larry Bucshon 799 2,091 2,868 3,226
Indiana 9 Trey Hollingsworth 806 2,145 2,952 3,328
Iowa 1 Rod Blum 542 1,538 2,140 2,439
Iowa 2 David Loebsack 675 1,894 2,630 3,011
Iowa 3 David Young 507 1,546 2,181 2,489
Iowa 4 Steve King 611 1,704 2,363 2,701
Kansas 1 Roger W. Marshall 351 959 1,332 1,448
Kansas 2 Lynn Jenkins 386 1,041 1,443 1,566
Kansas 3 Kevin Yoder 170 767 1,153 1,218
Kansas 4 vacant 343 968 1,353 1,466
Kentucky 1 James Comer 3,623 9,361 12,764 14,783
Kentucky 2 Brett Guthrie 3,172 8,232 11,235 13,005
Kentucky 3 John A. Yarmuth 3,086 8,156 11,172 12,952
Kentucky 4 Thomas Massie 2,495 6,627 9,088 10,524
Kentucky 5 Harold Rogers 4,920 12,672 17,264 20,016
Kentucky 6 Andy Barr 3,459 9,065 12,395 14,367
Louisiana 1 Steve Scalise 1,376 3,743 5,173 5,842
Louisiana 2 Cedric L. Richmond 2,632 6,759 9,221 10,510
Louisiana 3 Clay Higgins 1,693 4,490 6,165 7,041
Louisiana 4 Mike Johnson 1,931 5,035 6,888 7,885
Louisiana 5 Ralph Lee Abraham 2,264 5,834 7,961 9,108
Louisiana 6 Garret Graves 1,422 3,825 5,270 5,993
Maine 1 Chellie Pingree 424 1,177 1,649 1,704
Maine 2 Bruce Poliquin 553 1,355 1,848 1,933
Maryland 1 Andy Harris 1,172 3,334 4,638 5,339
Maryland 2 C. A. Dutch Ruppersberger 1,552 4,199 5,784 6,659
Maryland 3 John P. Sarbanes 794 2,646 3,780 4,373
Maryland 4 Anthony G. Brown 1,042 3,059 4,280 4,929
Maryland 5 Steny H. Hoyer 650 2,184 3,123 3,614
Maryland 6 John K. Delaney 942 2,987 4,235 4,879
Maryland 7 Elijah E. Cummings 1,974 5,499 7,613 8,817
Maryland 8 Jamie Raskin 315 1,741 2,642 3,059
Massachusetts 1 Richard E. Neal 1,258 3,365 4,632 5,257
Massachusetts 2 James P. McGovern 920 2,630 3,669 4,154
Massachusetts 3 Niki Tsongas 793 2,466 3,490 3,964
Massachusetts 4 Joseph P. Kennedy, III 107 1,098 1,739 1,976
Massachusetts 5 Katherine M. Clark 236 1,391 2,126 2,423
Massachusetts 6 Seth Moulton 391 1,563 2,298 2,594
Massachusetts 7 Michael E. Capuano 1,528 4,261 5,906 6,772
Massachusetts 8 Stephen F. Lynch 476 1,774 2,582 2,925
Massachusetts 9 William R. Keating 841 2,431 3,398 3,837
Michigan 1 Jack Bergman 1,226 3,128 4,272 4,773
Michigan 2 Bill Huizenga 1,099 2,852 3,904 4,411
Michigan 3 Justin Amash 1,026 2,752 3,791 4,300
Michigan 4 John R. Moolenaar 1,184 3,093 4,236 4,814
Michigan 5 Daniel T. Kildee 1,340 3,470 4,742 5,414
Michigan 6 Fred Upton 1,203 3,146 4,311 4,883
Michigan 7 Tim Walberg 895 2,383 3,280 3,704
Michigan 8 Mike Bishop 769 2,234 3,128 3,524
Michigan 9 Sander M. Levin 1,053 2,825 3,896 4,374
Michigan 10 Paul Mitchell 910 2,396 3,296 3,675
Michigan 11 David A. Trott 321 1,269 1,866 2,075
Michigan 12 Debbie Dingell 1,082 2,925 4,034 4,593
Michigan 13 John Conyers, Jr. 2,037 5,211 7,098 8,154
Michigan 14 Brenda L. Lawrence 1,568 4,192 5,765 6,594
Minnesota 1 Timothy J. Walz 715 2,022 2,808 3,253
Minnesota 2 Jason Lewis 291 1,112 1,618 1,893
Minnesota 3 Erik Paulsen 10 642 1,062 1,283
Minnesota 4 Betty McCollum 752 2,294 3,227 3,764
Minnesota 5 Keith Ellison 1,064 3,064 4,266 4,970
Minnesota 6 Tom Emmer 457 1,384 1,945 2,254
Minnesota 7 Collin C. Peterson 799 2,180 3,007 3,476
Minnesota 8 Richard M. Nolan 910 2,448 3,367 3,892
Mississippi 1 Trent Kelly 503 1,339 1,846 2,052
Mississippi 2 Bennie G. Thompson 820 2,075 2,830 3,146
Mississippi 3 Gregg Harper 517 1,434 1,992 2,213
Mississippi 4 Steven M. Palazzo 520 1,387 1,912 2,132
Missouri 1 Wm. Lacy Clay 790 2,035 2,792 3,035
Missouri 2 Ann Wagner 75 681 1,083 1,119
Missouri 3 Blaine Luetkemeyer 472 1,262 1,749 1,879
Missouri 4 Vicky Hartzler 631 1,618 2,218 2,414
Missouri 5 Emanuel Cleaver 665 1,721 2,365 2,569
Missouri 6 Sam Graves 472 1,282 1,782 1,918
Missouri 7 Billy Long 735 1,856 2,539 2,744
Missouri 8 Jason Smith 669 1,689 2,306 2,530
Montana Statewide vacant 4,195 10,844 14,807 16,956
Nebraska 1 Jeff Fortenberry 188 554 787 798
Nebraska 2 Don Bacon 84 393 595 598
Nebraska 3 Adrian Smith 336 856 1,181 1,200
Nevada 1 Dina Titus 2,079 5,348 7,293 8,370
Nevada 2 Mark E. Amodei 1,440 3,826 5,256 5,994
Nevada 3 Jacky Rosen 888 2,541 3,543 4,037
Nevada 4 Ruben Kihuen 1,598 4,172 5,708 6,537
New Hampshire 1 Carol Shea-Porter 968 2,733 3,805 4,295
New Hampshire 2 Ann M. Kuster 952 2,683 3,733 4,227
New Jersey 1 Donald Norcross 2,149 5,769 7,932 9,145
New Jersey 2 Frank A. LoBiondo 2,418 6,419 8,807 10,153
New Jersey 3 Thomas MacArthur 1,004 2,958 4,142 4,753
New Jersey 4 Christopher H. Smith 1,532 4,511 6,312 7,292
New Jersey 5 Josh Gottheimer 705 2,590 3,757 4,322
New Jersey 6 Frank Pallone, Jr. 1,705 4,827 6,706 7,731
New Jersey 7 Leonard Lance 189 1,583 2,471 2,887
New Jersey 8 Albio Sires 3,348 8,947 12,287 14,218
New Jersey 9 Bill Pascrell, Jr. 2,776 7,473 10,280 11,864
New Jersey 10 Donald M. Payne, Jr. 3,553 9,339 12,781 14,782
New Jersey 11 Rodney P. Frelinghuysen 153 1,411 2,215 2,584
New Jersey 12 Bonnie Watson Coleman 1,343 4,101 5,773 6,682
New Mexico 1 Michelle Lujan Grisham 3,748 9,795 13,389 15,497
New Mexico 2 Stevan Pearce 4,438 11,467 15,636 18,106
New Mexico 3 Ben Ray Luján 3,867 10,066 13,748 15,911
New York 1 Lee M. Zeldin 132 271 538 695
New York 2 Peter T. King 102 237 462 594
New York 3 Thomas R. Suozzi 656 531 402 331
New York 4 Kathleen M. Rice 240 150 418 576
New York 5 Gregory W. Meeks 588 1,737 2,427 2,843
New York 6 Grace Meng 459 1,483 2,104 2,476
New York 7 Nydia M. Velázquez 1,091 3,203 4,472 5,245
New York 8 Hakeem S. Jeffries 1,076 3,019 4,181 4,888
New York 9 Yvette D. Clarke 789 2,349 3,287 3,857
New York 10 Jerrold Nadler 249 716 1,352 1,735
New York 11 Daniel M. Donovan, Jr. 410 1,444 2,074 2,456
New York 12 Carolyn B. Maloney 896 501 182 5
New York 13 Adriano Espaillat 1,393 3,769 5,183 6,048
New York 14 Joseph Crowley 817 2,268 3,135 3,661
New York 15 José E. Serrano 2,002 5,192 7,080 8,238
New York 16 Eliot L. Engel 114 985 1,533 1,864
New York 17 Nita M. Lowey 190 409 807 1,045
New York 18 Sean Patrick Maloney 51 691 1,096 1,340
New York 19 John J. Faso 374 1,224 1,739 2,051
New York 20 Paul Tonko 386 1,302 1,858 2,196
New York 21 Elise M. Stefanik 585 1,651 2,289 2,678
New York 22 Claudia Tenney 656 1,833 2,536 2,966
New York 23 Tom Reed 687 1,922 2,661 3,112
New York 24 John Katko 561 1,662 2,324 2,727
New York 25 Louise McIntosh Slaughter 590 1,763 2,468 2,898
New York 26 Brian Higgins 800 2,219 3,067 3,585
New York 27 Chris Collins 250 896 1,290 1,528
North Carolina 1 G. K. Butterfield 1,315 3,320 4,522 5,075
North Carolina 2 George Holding 878 2,347 3,240 3,580
North Carolina 3 Walter B. Jones 985 2,531 3,464 3,852
North Carolina 4 David E. Price 948 2,611 3,626 4,016
North Carolina 5 Virginia Foxx 1,021 2,677 3,680 4,085
North Carolina 6 Mark Walker 847 2,271 3,138 3,465
North Carolina 7 David Rouzer 1,090 2,804 3,839 4,256
North Carolina 8 Richard Hudson 1,132 2,864 3,904 4,356
North Carolina 9 Robert Pittenger 280 1,248 1,867 2,019
North Carolina 10 Patrick T. McHenry 1,042 2,674 3,660 4,048
North Carolina 11 Mark Meadows 1,148 2,889 3,939 4,349
North Carolina 12 Alma S. Adams 1,580 3,951 5,376 5,966
North Carolina 13 Ted Budd 612 1,829 2,583 2,814
North Dakota Statewide Kevin Cramer 934 2,624 3,646 4,151
Ohio 1 Steve Chabot 1,216 3,394 4,704 5,414
Ohio 2 Brad R. Wenstrup 1,057 2,963 4,111 4,725
Ohio 3 Joyce Beatty 1,867 4,879 6,673 7,688
Ohio 4 Jim Jordan 1,129 2,972 4,072 4,680
Ohio 5 Robert E. Latta 957 2,602 3,589 4,122
Ohio 6 Bill Johnson 1,309 3,419 4,677 5,372
Ohio 7 Bob Gibbs 1,105 2,933 4,026 4,614
Ohio 8 Warren Davidson 1,103 2,958 4,068 4,669
Ohio 9 Marcy Kaptur 1,655 4,327 5,919 6,818
Ohio 10 Michael R. Turner 1,298 3,489 4,800 5,525
Ohio 11 Marcia L. Fudge 1,957 5,194 7,124 8,226
Ohio 12 Patrick J. Tiberi 655 2,063 2,922 3,364
Ohio 13 Tim Ryan 1,511 3,926 5,366 6,160
Ohio 14 David P. Joyce 604 1,848 2,607 2,972
Ohio 15 Steve Stivers 994 2,746 3,798 4,366
Ohio 16 James B. Renacci 565 1,673 2,347 2,673
Oklahoma 1 Jim Bridenstine 245 798 1,147 1,213
Oklahoma 2 Markwayne Mullin 369 957 1,318 1,420
Oklahoma 3 Frank D. Lucas 292 823 1,154 1,226
Oklahoma 4 Tom Cole 291 826 1,159 1,230
Oklahoma 5 Steve Russell 313 961 1,367 1,455
Oregon 1 Suzanne Bonamici 2,371 6,413 8,833 10,176
Oregon 2 Greg Walden 3,546 9,149 12,482 14,352
Oregon 3 Earl Blumenauer 3,493 9,167 12,551 14,441
Oregon 4 Peter A. DeFazio 3,882 10,040 13,698 15,812
Oregon 5 Kurt Schrader 2,881 7,582 10,383 11,968
Pennsylvania 1 Robert A. Brady 1,262 3,318 4,553 5,160
Pennsylvania 2 Dwight Evans 1,239 3,416 4,729 5,388
Pennsylvania 3 Mike Kelly 661 1,812 2,508 2,837
Pennsylvania 4 Scott Perry 585 1,614 2,240 2,497
Pennsylvania 5 Glenn Thompson 732 1,948 2,679 3,035
Pennsylvania 6 Ryan A. Costello 163 912 1,393 1,532
Pennsylvania 7 Patrick Meehan 94 784 1,234 1,343
Pennsylvania 8 Brian K. Fitzpatrick 227 1,013 1,518 1,629
Pennsylvania 9 Bill Shuster 778 2,026 2,776 3,130
Pennsylvania 10 Tom Marino 704 1,868 2,572 2,874
Pennsylvania 11 Lou Barletta 645 1,749 2,418 2,712
Pennsylvania 12 Keith J. Rothfus 417 1,304 1,851 2,067
Pennsylvania 13 Brendan F. Boyle 690 1,975 2,761 3,078
Pennsylvania 14 Michael F. Doyle 901 2,417 3,330 3,768
Pennsylvania 15 Charles W. Dent 574 1,652 2,310 2,581
Pennsylvania 16 Lloyd Smucker 743 2,009 2,776 3,114
Pennsylvania 17 Matt Cartwright 748 1,969 2,706 3,027
Pennsylvania 18 Tim Murphy 340 1,136 1,632 1,813
Rhode Island 1 David N. Cicilline 1,736 4,626 6,354 7,303
Rhode Island 2 James R. Langevin 1,378 3,700 5,092 5,833
South Carolina 1 Mark Sanford 218 754 1,099 1,118
South Carolina 2 Joe Wilson 228 682 970 998
South Carolina 3 Jeff Duncan 332 845 1,163 1,208
South Carolina 4 Trey Gowdy 328 902 1,262 1,300
South Carolina 5 vacant 325 850 1,177 1,220
South Carolina 6 James E. Clyburn 426 1,036 1,410 1,472
South Carolina 7 Tom Rice 486 1,197 1,637 1,695
South Dakota Statewide Kristi L. Noem 239 748 1,069 1,128
Tennessee 1 David P. Roe 1,049 2,712 3,711 4,181
Tennessee 2 John J. Duncan, Jr. 819 2,223 3,074 3,452
Tennessee 3 Charles J. “Chuck” Fleischmann 928 2,443 3,354 3,779
Tennessee 4 Scott DesJarlais 901 2,365 3,245 3,659
Tennessee 5 Jim Cooper 982 2,666 3,686 4,130
Tennessee 6 Diane Black 861 2,273 3,124 3,508
Tennessee 7 Marsha Blackburn 708 2,038 2,849 3,210
Tennessee 8 David Kustoff 629 1,836 2,573 2,895
Tennessee 9 Steve Cohen 1,361 3,501 4,781 5,426
Texas 1 Louie Gohmert 395 1,072 1,490 1,603
Texas 2 Ted Poe 98 735 1,155 1,200
Texas 3 Sam Johnson 25 621 1,023 1,038
Texas 4 John Ratcliffe 356 998 1,396 1,497
Texas 5 Jeb Hensarling 468 1,236 1,708 1,826
Texas 6 Joe Barton 397 1,120 1,571 1,656
Texas 7 John Abney Culberson 100 474 869 899
Texas 8 Kevin Brady 164 754 1,134 1,201
Texas 9 Al Green 681 1,710 2,339 2,499
Texas 10 Michael T. McCaul 239 946 1,401 1,466
Texas 11 K. Michael Conaway 249 820 1,178 1,263
Texas 12 Kay Granger 331 1,027 1,466 1,539
Texas 13 Mac Thornberry 302 843 1,177 1,271
Texas 14 Randy K. Weber, Sr. 291 919 1,314 1,404
Texas 15 Vicente Gonzalez 640 1,622 2,218 2,420
Texas 16 Beto O’Rourke 800 1,956 2,663 2,818
Texas 17 Bill Flores 397 1,104 1,541 1,668
Texas 18 Sheila Jackson Lee 586 1,557 2,154 2,312
Texas 19 Jodey C. Arrington 321 910 1,274 1,383
Texas 20 Joaquin Castro 578 1,448 1,979 2,113
Texas 21 Lamar Smith 225 919 1,367 1,431
Texas 22 Pete Olson 76 738 1,180 1,198
Texas 23 Will Hurd 480 1,334 1,863 1,991
Texas 24 Kenny Marchant 85 684 1,080 1,120
Texas 25 Roger Williams 188 812 1,216 1,277
Texas 26 Michael C. Burgess 165 771 1,166 1,199
Texas 27 Blake Farenthold 378 1,037 1,444 1,553
Texas 28 Henry Cuellar 668 1,667 2,275 2,450
Texas 29 Gene Green 756 1,828 2,477 2,668
Texas 30 Eddie Bernice Johnson 632 1,591 2,176 2,335
Texas 31 John R. Carter 288 886 1,263 1,325
Texas 32 Pete Sessions 117 765 1,189 1,246
Texas 33 Marc A. Veasey 758 1,832 2,480 2,681
Texas 34 Filemon Vela 660 1,662 2,270 2,476
Texas 35 Lloyd Doggett 716 1,748 2,375 2,551
Texas 36 Brian Babin 372 1,051 1,474 1,565
Utah 1 Rob Bishop 503 1,315 1,818 1,903
Utah 2 Chris Stewart 621 1,607 2,217 2,331
Utah 3 Jason Chaffetz 579 1,544 2,143 2,238
Utah 4 Mia B. Love 610 1,540 2,114 2,208
Vermont Statewide Peter Welch 1,137 3,011 4,140 4,664
Virginia 1 Robert J. Wittman 156 742 1,125 1,145
Virginia 2 Scott Taylor 295 885 1,257 1,304
Virginia 3 Robert C. “Bobby” Scott 448 1,150 1,580 1,693
Virginia 4 A. Donald McEachin 406 1,103 1,539 1,593
Virginia 5 Thomas A. Garrett, Jr. 440 1,208 1,687 1,762
Virginia 6 Bob Goodlatte 440 1,150 1,590 1,669
Virginia 7 Dave Brat 201 844 1,263 1,283
Virginia 8 Donald S. Beyer, Jr. 310 184 547 520
Virginia 9 H. Morgan Griffith 434 1,124 1,549 1,644
Virginia 10 Barbara Comstock 428 6 319 267
Virginia 11 Gerald E. Connolly 117 486 908 887
Washington 1 Suzan K. DelBene 819 2,627 3,732 4,294
Washington 2 Rick Larsen 1,713 4,539 6,228 7,154
Washington 3 Jaime Herrera Beutler 1,797 4,732 6,484 7,453
Washington 4 Dan Newhouse 2,406 6,289 8,598 9,945
Washington 5 Cathy McMorris Rodgers 2,105 5,508 7,534 8,686
Washington 6 Derek Kilmer 1,620 4,338 5,962 6,867
Washington 7 Pramila Jayapal 1,151 3,622 5,127 5,933
Washington 8 David G. Reichert 1,217 3,485 4,855 5,584
Washington 9 Adam Smith 1,718 4,846 6,728 7,765
Washington 10 Denny Heck 1,630 4,315 5,916 6,821
West Virginia 1 David B. McKinley 1,801 4,706 6,435 7,436
West Virginia 2 Alexander X. Mooney 1,623 4,284 5,869 6,778
West Virginia 3 Evan H. Jenkins 2,121 5,509 7,520 8,701
Wisconsin 1 Paul D. Ryan 270 803 1,138 1,187
Wisconsin 2 Mark Pocan 185 668 976 1,026
Wisconsin 3 Ron Kind 395 1,024 1,413 1,482
Wisconsin 4 Gwen Moore 466 1,214 1,673 1,797
Wisconsin 5 F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr. 147 604 901 925
Wisconsin 6 Glenn Grothman 286 817 1,152 1,195
Wisconsin 7 Sean P. Duffy 492 1,244 1,710 1,776
Wisconsin 8 Mike Gallagher 378 1,006 1,398 1,450
Wyoming Statewide Liz Cheney 199 582 824 853
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

The nongroup market spending is the net outcome of repealing ACA subsidies and introducing new AHCA tax credits. We take estimates of current health exchange enrollees by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and apply estimates from Cutler (2017) on the change in enrollment spurred by the AHCA to get a measure of remaining enrollment in nongroup markets by congressional district (CD). We use this measure to allocate the nationwide amount of tax credits estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). We also provide an age adjustment that estimates higher tax credits going to CDs whose age 18–64 population skews older, reflecting the fact that under the AHCA tax credits are larger for older enrollees. Specifically, we multiply the share of the 18–64 population that is between 30 and 49 by 1.375 and the share that is 50 and over by 1.875, reflecting the greater generosity of tax credits for these populations relative to those received by the under-30 population.

For Medicaid spending we allocate the CBO estimates of Medicaid spending reductions across states by using the Blumberg et al. (2016) estimates of how partial ACA repeal would be borne. Within states, we allocate the incidence of these spending cuts across CDs proportionally to each CD’s share of the population with incomes beneath the federal poverty line.

For tax cuts, we assume 40 percent of the revenue accrues uniformly across CDs, while allocating 60 percent of it proportionally to each CD’s total share of the population with incomes over $150,000.

Output multipliers are 1.4 for the nongroup spending reductions, 2 for Medicaid spending reductions, and 0.4 for the tax cuts. These parameter choices are explained in Bivens (2017). In 2019, we divide the output change by $146,000 to get employment changes, also explained in Bivens (2017). For each year after 2019, we increase this divisor by 1.5 percent, reflecting expected productivity growth over that time.

Source: Author's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2016a), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS 2016e), and BLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and computations, see the appendix.

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Macroeconomic background

Bivens (2017) provides the necessary macroeconomic context for assessing the overall job-growth implications of ACA repeal. The important points are simply that the AHCA cuts spending on Medicaid and subsidies to help people purchase health insurance (and health care) in the nongroup (individual) market, and cuts taxes that disproportionately fall on higher-income households. This combination of spending cuts borne by low and moderate-income households and tax cuts enjoyed by high-income households makes it a drag on aggregate demand growth. This is simply because low- and moderate-income households spend a higher share of their disposable income.

The AHCA’s cuts occur further in the future than those modeled in Bivens (2017). While there is strong evidence that the economy’s growth will be constrained by the low level of aggregate demand (spending by households, businesses, and governments) even through 2019, it is hard to speak with certainty about aggregate demand constraints too far after 2019. There are reasons to believe that this growth may still be demand-constrained and hence the AHCA will translate directly into the job losses specified. On the other hand, many macroeconomic projections indicate that the economy will not be so constrained, and that nonfiscal tools (mostly interest rate reductions engineered by the Federal Reserve) could neutralize the fiscal drag from ACA repeal and replacement such that no downward drag on jobs occurs.

As we emphasized previously, however, since 2008, macroeconomic projections have proven wrong. Since 2008 macroeconomic projections have generally indicated that the economy would break free of aggregate demand constraints in the next three years, but that consistently failed to occur. Given the constant disappointment of these projections, and given rising concerns that “secular stagnation” could lead to a future in which chronic aggregate demand shortfalls become structural features of advanced economies, it seems sensible to worry about demand-constraints even four and five years down the road. (See Summers 2014 for the best summary statement of the potential for secular stagnation and its effects.) The AHCA would impose a considerable fiscal drag on job growth, and policymakers should know just how hard other levers of policy would have to work to overcome it.

Given all of this uncertainty, we present our findings as a drag on potential job growth, rather than as clear predictions of “jobs lost.” These estimates are implicitly a measure of how much harder other macroeconomic policy would have to work to neutralize the demand drag stemming from AHCA enactment. Given that policymakers should be deeply uncertain if other tools of macreconomic policy have the ability to neutralize large negative fiscal shocks, these estimates should be unsettling. Bivens (2017), for example, describes research by Angrist et al. (2013) highlighting the extremely weak effect of interest rate cuts enacted by the Federal Reserve in boosting demand growth. This is particularly true in those congressional districts and states that would be particularly hard-hit by the AHCA. While macroeconomic policy may be able to neutralize the nationwide impact of the AHCA fiscal drag, it is highly unlikely to be able to neutralize it in the particularly hard-hit geographic regions, unless it is unusually finely targeted (and again, interest rate reductions enacted by the Federal Reserve are not finely targeted).

Data and methods

The broad method for estimating the drag on job growth is the same as our earlier paper (Bivens 2017), and interested readers can seek the details there. In a nutshell, the fiscal impulses stemming from the spending and tax cuts are estimated separately, output multipliers drawn from the research literature are applied to them, and a crosswalk between the additional output and additional employment is applied. The net of cross-cutting effects gives us our measure of drag on potential job growth.

For estimating changes in subsidies and tax credits in the nongroup market, we started with Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates of the nationwide spending decline that would be spurred by the elimination of exchange subsidies under the ACA. We then applied these nationwide cuts proportionately across CDs. To apportion these cuts, we used data from the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) on current ACA exchange enrollment by CD. We then took CBO national estimates for the new tax credits for nongroup insurance purchase provided by the AHCA. We allocated this new spending by CD by combining the KFF CD data with data estimated by Cutler (2017) on nongroup enrollment changes by CD. Combining the KFF data on current enrollment under the ACA and Cutler’s data on the size of coverage losses by CD post-AHCA, we then can back out a measure (adjusted for age bands as we noted) to nongroup enrollment after the AHCA by CD. We then made an adjustment to spending by CD based on the proportion of the age 18-64 population in each CD that fell into three separate age-bands (19-29, 30-49, 50-64). This adjustment reflects the fact that the AHCA tax credits are more generous for older enrollees than younger enrollees. This lets us allocate the stimulative effect of the AHCA tax credits for nongroup purchase. Implicitly, CDs whose 18-64 population skews older will see larger tax credits flowing into their district from the AHCA. The net impact of ACA spending losses and AHCA tax credits on the nongroup market in each CD is used to calculate output and employment impacts.

For estimating changes in Medicaid spending, we take the national estimate of the reduction in Medicaid spending by the CBO, and allocate it across states according to estimates made by Blumberg et al. (2016) in their estimate of partial repeal. This is likely not perfect, but, should work well in the early years of the AHCA (which is what we’re examining). In later years, the CBO estimate includes projections about states that have not yet accepted the ACA Medicaid expansion that would do so should current law persist, and Blumberg et al. (2016) make no attempt to estimate these across states. There is a good reasons why we do not use the estimates by Cutler (2017) on falling Medicaid enrollment across CDs to allocate changes in Medicaid spending. His estimates are for 2026, and implicitly include these later years’ decisions about new states that would accept the ACA Medicaid expansion under current law, but will not under the AHCA. Given all of this, we think the Blumberg et al. (2016) estimates, which show very large differences (appropriately so) of the effect of Medicaid cuts on expansions versus non-expansion states, are the most useful for allocating these Medicaid cuts across states in the near term.

Once these Medicaid cuts are allocated across states, we allocate them proportionally across CDs within a state by using the CD’s share of population beneath the federal poverty line, as reported in the American Community Survey (ACS).

For the share of the AHCA tax cuts accruing across CDs, we assume that 40 percent the nationwide tax cuts are distributed uniformly, while the remaining 60 percent are allocated across CDs proportionally to the district’s share of households making over $150,000 per year, again from the American Community Survey (ACS). This reflects the Tax Policy Center (TPC 2017) estimates of the incidence of tax cuts from ACA repeal.

For output multipliers, we applied 1.4 to the net change in subsidies and tax credits for nongroup insurance purchase, 2 to the Medicaid changes, and 0.4 to the tax changes, with the sources of these provided in Bivens (2017).

For translating output changes into employment changes, in 2019 we divide the output change by $146,000 (the ratio of output to full-time equivalent employment (FTE) in 2015) and inflated by 6 percent to account for productivity growth between 2015 and 2019. After 2019, we boost this FTE per output measure by 1.5 percent to account for continuing productivity growth.

Data Appendix

Figure 1

How many jobs could the AHCA cost your state?: Potential fewer jobs per state due to drag on growth from the AHCA, 2017–2022

State Average annual job loss as share of state employment 2017 potential job loss 2018 potential job loss 2019 potential job loss 2020 potential job loss 2021 potential job loss 2022 potential job loss
Alabama 0.28% 824 1,680 2,685 7,318 10,168 10,999
Alaska 0.32% 101 243 433 1,416 2,018 2,324
Arizona 1.09% 2,272 9,657 14,274 38,106 52,359 60,174
Arkansas 0.63% 676 2,545 3,783 10,060 13,826 15,745
California 0.61% 10,714 30,513 46,280 130,712 183,356 207,072
Colorado 1.04% 1,992 8,507 12,778 35,082 48,443 55,989
Connecticut 0.54% 880 2,198 3,565 11,728 16,736 19,212
Delaware 0.57% 235 774 1,202 3,381 4,698 5,362
Washington D.C. 0.15% 135 67 303 1,542 2,321 2,691
Florida 0.57% 7,899 16,232 24,922 63,356 86,987 92,017
Georgia 0.43% 2,689 5,983 9,147 24,702 34,246 37,180
Hawaii 0.46% 228 792 1,288 3,908 5,494 6,389
Idaho 0.60% 554 1,464 2,178 5,500 7,516 8,182
Illinois 0.59% 3,217 10,385 15,954 45,842 63,956 73,076
Indiana 0.49% 1,482 4,873 7,349 19,680 27,116 30,610
Iowa 0.33% 468 1,483 2,335 6,682 9,314 10,639
Kansas 0.20% 457 711 1,250 3,735 5,282 5,698
Kentucky 2.19% 2,747 14,402 20,755 54,112 73,919 85,647
Louisiana 1.16% 1,932 7,703 11,319 29,684 40,677 46,379
Maine 0.32% 355 615 976 2,531 3,497 3,637
Maryland 0.73% 1,664 5,139 8,442 25,649 36,094 41,668
Massachusetts 0.45% 1,732 3,872 6,551 20,978 29,841 33,901
Michigan 0.74% 3,003 10,497 15,712 41,877 57,618 65,286
Minnesota 0.40% 876 3,308 4,997 15,146 21,300 24,785
Mississippi 0.42% 540 1,561 2,360 6,234 8,579 9,544
Missouri 0.33% 1,358 2,975 4,509 12,145 16,835 18,207
Montana 1.80% 653 2,897 4,195 10,844 14,807 16,956
Nebraska 0.13% 313 322 608 1,803 2,563 2,596
Nevada 0.94% 999 4,074 6,006 15,887 21,800 24,938
New Hampshire 0.62% 423 1,221 1,920 5,417 7,539 8,522
New Jersey 1.14% 3,622 13,705 20,877 59,926 83,463 96,413
New Mexico 2.94% 1,608 8,375 12,053 31,328 42,772 49,513
New York 0.37% 2,126 11,824 16,144 43,426 60,963 71,639
North Carolina 0.60% 3,068 8,479 12,878 34,015 46,838 51,882
North Dakota 0.46% 188 601 934 2,624 3,646 4,151
Ohio 0.72% 3,110 12,708 18,983 51,385 70,803 81,385
Oklahoma 0.20% 569 877 1,510 4,365 6,144 6,544
Oregon 1.77% 2,380 11,125 16,173 42,352 57,948 66,748
Pennsylvania 0.43% 2,825 7,259 11,503 32,922 45,986 51,586
Rhode Island 1.31% 508 2,101 3,114 8,326 11,447 13,136
South Carolina 0.23% 927 1,426 2,344 6,267 8,718 9,011
South Dakota 0.13% 108 125 239 748 1,069 1,128
Tennessee 0.57% 1,700 5,453 8,239 22,057 30,397 34,241
Texas 0.26% 5,484 8,780 13,982 41,197 58,345 62,143
Utah 0.32% 812 1,465 2,313 6,006 8,292 8,680
Vermont 0.74% 229 760 1,137 3,011 4,140 4,664
Virginia 0.19% 1,677 2,792 3,676 8,882 13,364 13,768
Washington 1.04% 2,612 10,759 16,175 44,300 61,163 70,501
West Virginia 1.45% 769 3,832 5,545 14,499 19,823 22,914
Wisconsin 0.19% 1,056 1,528 2,618 7,380 10,360 10,838
Wyoming 0.16% 90 110 199 582 824 853

Map is colored to illustrate relative impact by showing average annual job loss as a share of total state employment.

The analysis is done at the congressional district (CD) level, then the summation of effects in each CD is undertaken to get statewide effects. For notes on the CD analysis, see the table note to Table 1.

Source: Author's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2016a), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS 2016e), and BLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b).

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Figure 2

How many jobs could the AHCA cost in your congressional district?: Potential fewer jobs by congressional district due to drag on growth from the AHCA, 2017–2022

State District Representative 2019 potential job loss 2020 potential job loss 2021 potential job loss 2022 potential job loss
Alabama 1 Bradley Byrne 468 1,229 1,696 1,820
Alabama 2 Martha Roby 375 1,001 1,384 1,505
Alabama 3 Mike Rogers 404 1,071 1,478 1,613
Alabama 4 Robert B. Aderholt 429 1,108 1,522 1,647
Alabama 5 Mo Brooks 307 910 1,287 1,376
Alabama 6 Gary J. Palmer 174 662 974 1,032
Alabama 7 Terri A. Sewell 528 1,338 1,827 2,006
Alaska Statewide Don Young 433 1,416 2,018 2,324
Arizona 1 Tom O’Halleran 1,875 4,911 6,719 7,746
Arizona 2 Martha McSally 1,377 3,696 5,085 5,838
Arizona 3 Raúl M. Grijalva 2,182 5,606 7,640 8,789
Arizona 4 Paul A. Gosar 1,498 3,885 5,310 6,074
Arizona 5 Andy Biggs 828 2,375 3,313 3,778
Arizona 6 David Schweikert 795 2,571 3,658 4,214
Arizona 7 Ruben Gallego 3,171 8,148 11,101 12,811
Arizona 8 Trent Franks 958 2,600 3,588 4,084
Arizona 9 Kyrsten Sinema 1,592 4,314 5,946 6,841
Arkansas 1 Eric A. “Rick” Crawford 1,085 2,815 3,849 4,390
Arkansas 2 J. French Hill 777 2,127 2,941 3,342
Arkansas 3 Steve Womack 869 2,380 3,290 3,739
Arkansas 4 Bruce Westerman 1,052 2,738 3,746 4,275
California 1 Doug LaMalfa 1,096 2,880 3,954 4,460
California 2 Jared Huffman 502 1,838 2,670 3,013
California 3 John Garamendi 886 2,440 3,380 3,830
California 4 Tom McClintock 553 1,722 2,444 2,718
California 5 Mike Thompson 687 2,041 2,871 3,223
California 6 Doris O. Matsui 1,351 3,540 4,852 5,517
California 7 Ami Bera 725 2,093 2,928 3,293
California 8 Paul Cook 1,262 3,254 4,447 5,036
California 9 Jerry McNerney 1,122 2,988 4,110 4,655
California 10 Jeff Denham 1,072 2,824 3,878 4,382
California 11 Mark DeSaulnier 320 1,494 2,235 2,538
California 12 Nancy Pelosi 76 1,283 2,065 2,370
California 13 Barbara Lee 772 2,483 3,536 4,009
California 14 Jackie Speier 1 802 1,329 1,509
California 15 Eric Swalwell 197 1,159 1,777 1,981
California 16 Jim Costa 1,785 4,574 6,235 7,128
California 17 Ro Khanna 63 707 1,219 1,379
California 18 Anna G. Eshoo 543 21 437 539
California 19 Zoe Lofgren 484 1,754 2,544 2,883
California 20 Jimmy Panetta 942 2,623 3,643 4,107
California 21 David G. Valadao 1,658 4,250 5,793 6,635
California 22 Devin Nunes 1,144 3,075 4,235 4,829
California 23 Kevin McCarthy 1,039 2,800 3,859 4,392
California 24 Salud O. Carbajal 834 2,405 3,364 3,786
California 25 Stephen Knight 781 2,270 3,180 3,561
California 26 Julia Brownley 585 1,878 2,678 2,992
California 27 Judy Chu 585 1,914 2,737 3,064
California 28 Adam B. Schiff 726 2,332 3,321 3,752
California 29 Tony Cárdenas 1,405 3,589 4,897 5,528
California 30 Brad Sherman 518 1,857 2,690 3,025
California 31 Pete Aguilar 1,173 3,112 4,277 4,852
California 32 Grace F. Napolitano 1,018 2,643 3,622 4,048
California 33 Ted Lieu 310 486 1,034 1,191
California 34 vacant 1,702 4,385 5,990 6,803
California 35 Norma J. Torres 1,202 3,065 4,181 4,719
California 36 Raul Ruiz 1,208 3,219 4,429 5,017
California 37 Karen Bass 1,152 3,263 4,543 5,156
California 38 Linda T. Sánchez 892 2,354 3,239 3,607
California 39 Edward R. Royce 549 1,768 2,524 2,809
California 40 Lucille Roybal-Allard 1,766 4,465 6,075 6,892
California 41 Mark Takano 1,290 3,338 4,566 5,170
California 42 Ken Calvert 664 1,862 2,593 2,888
California 43 Maxine Waters 1,270 3,340 4,585 5,176
California 44 Nanette Diaz Barragán 1,532 3,886 5,293 5,985
California 45 Mimi Walters 175 1,191 1,846 2,060
California 46 J. Luis Correa 1,262 3,232 4,414 4,960
California 47 Alan S. Lowenthal 1,026 2,827 3,919 4,410
California 48 Dana Rohrabacher 294 1,447 2,180 2,443
California 49 Darrell E. Issa 386 1,590 2,349 2,631
California 50 Duncan Hunter 920 2,509 3,472 3,883
California 51 Juan Vargas 1,618 4,061 5,522 6,205
California 52 Scott H. Peters 258 1,305 1,973 2,201
California 53 Susan A. Davis 897 2,469 3,424 3,830
Colorado 1 Diana DeGette 2,344 6,472 8,944 10,362
Colorado 2 Jared Polis 1,597 4,573 6,368 7,344
Colorado 3 Scott R. Tipton 2,339 6,134 8,395 9,669
Colorado 4 Ken Buck 1,585 4,408 6,103 7,055
Colorado 5 Doug Lamborn 1,722 4,656 6,408 7,421
Colorado 6 Mike Coffman 1,449 4,134 5,750 6,656
Colorado 7 Ed Perlmutter 1,743 4,705 6,476 7,482
Connecticut 1 John B. Larson 982 2,879 4,029 4,616
Connecticut 2 Joe Courtney 632 1,952 2,760 3,136
Connecticut 3 Rosa L. DeLauro 953 2,768 3,869 4,426
Connecticut 4 James A. Himes 145 1,504 2,372 2,784
Connecticut 5 Elizabeth H. Esty 853 2,626 3,706 4,249
Delaware Statewide Lisa Blunt Rochester 1,202 3,381 4,698 5,362
DC Statewide Eleanor Holmes Norton 303 1,542 2,321 2,691
Florida 1 Matt Gaetz 557 1,482 2,051 2,208
Florida 2 Neal P. Dunn 652 1,696 2,333 2,533
Florida 3 Ted S. Yoho 699 1,798 2,469 2,667
Florida 4 John H. Rutherford 574 1,563 2,177 2,309
Florida 5 Al Lawson, Jr. 907 2,234 3,034 3,319
Florida 6 Ron DeSantis 777 2,037 2,813 2,983
Florida 7 Stephanie N. Murphy 845 2,176 2,998 3,147
Florida 8 Bill Posey 720 1,862 2,565 2,722
Florida 9 Darren Soto 1,096 2,650 3,597 3,817
Florida 10 Val Butler Demings 969 2,462 3,383 3,550
Florida 11 Daniel Webster 807 1,983 2,699 2,879
Florida 12 Gus M. Bilirakis 639 1,702 2,361 2,492
Florida 13 Charlie Crist 689 1,812 2,506 2,653
Florida 14 Kathy Castor 808 2,107 2,903 3,136
Florida 15 Dennis A. Ross 678 1,773 2,446 2,615
Florida 16 Vern Buchanan 612 1,677 2,339 2,477
Florida 17 Thomas J. Rooney 788 1,953 2,663 2,853
Florida 18 Brian J. Mast 807 2,168 3,013 3,155
Florida 19 Francis Rooney 671 1,897 2,660 2,813
Florida 20 Alcee L. Hastings 1,533 3,616 4,880 5,170
Florida 21 Lois Frankel 910 2,374 3,284 3,411
Florida 22 Theodore E. Deutch 1,024 2,775 3,868 4,028
Florida 23 Debbie Wasserman Schultz 1,120 2,927 4,050 4,207
Florida 24 Frederica S. Wilson 1,717 4,082 5,522 5,828
Florida 25 Mario Diaz-Balart 1,375 3,310 4,494 4,710
Florida 26 Carlos Curbelo 1,482 3,544 4,808 5,013
Florida 27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 1,468 3,697 5,070 5,321
Georgia 1 Earl L. “Buddy” Carter 682 1,773 2,439 2,653
Georgia 2 Sanford D. Bishop, Jr. 761 1,946 2,660 2,961
Georgia 3 A. Drew Ferguson, IV 561 1,512 2,095 2,275
Georgia 4 Henry C. “Hank” Johnson, Jr. 918 2,285 3,117 3,348
Georgia 5 John Lewis 751 2,122 2,966 3,241
Georgia 6 vacant 81 876 1,402 1,473
Georgia 7 Rob Woodall 745 2,006 2,789 2,940
Georgia 8 Austin Scott 633 1,643 2,254 2,502
Georgia 9 Doug Collins 679 1,755 2,409 2,624
Georgia 10 Jody B. Hice 669 1,736 2,385 2,606
Georgia 11 Barry Loudermilk 438 1,395 1,997 2,131
Georgia 12 Rick W. Allen 751 1,928 2,640 2,907
Georgia 13 David Scott 843 2,112 2,886 3,106
Georgia 14 Tom Graves 636 1,613 2,206 2,413
Hawaii 1 Colleen Hanabusa 422 1,445 2,071 2,424
Hawaii 2 Tulsi Gabbard 866 2,463 3,424 3,965
Idaho 1 Raúl R. Labrador 1,094 2,743 3,743 4,069
Idaho 2 Michael K. Simpson 1,084 2,757 3,773 4,113
Illinois 1 Bobby L. Rush 1,376 3,656 5,021 5,744
Illinois 2 Robin L. Kelly 1,481 3,850 5,264 6,023
Illinois 3 Daniel Lipinski 821 2,289 3,177 3,606
Illinois 4 Luis V. Gutiérrez 1,593 4,132 5,646 6,464
Illinois 5 Mike Quigley 354 1,574 2,339 2,691
Illinois 6 Peter J. Roskam 9 722 1,202 1,358
Illinois 7 Danny K. Davis 1,480 4,271 5,955 6,875
Illinois 8 Raja Krishnamoorthi 766 2,126 2,951 3,330
Illinois 9 Janice D. Schakowsky 501 1,860 2,701 3,101
Illinois 10 Bradley Scott Schneider 377 1,552 2,286 2,609
Illinois 11 Bill Foster 674 1,994 2,799 3,173
Illinois 12 Mike Bost 1,238 3,265 4,476 5,134
Illinois 13 Rodney Davis 1,146 3,092 4,258 4,891
Illinois 14 Randy Hultgren 327 1,255 1,837 2,066
Illinois 15 John Shimkus 1,053 2,770 3,798 4,328
Illinois 16 Adam Kinzinger 857 2,303 3,173 3,604
Illinois 17 Cheri Bustos 1,259 3,267 4,466 5,105
Illinois 18 Darin LaHood 642 1,864 2,605 2,974
Indiana 1 Peter J. Visclosky 863 2,305 3,173 3,594
Indiana 2 Jackie Walorski 874 2,297 3,152 3,557
Indiana 3 Jim Banks 769 2,050 2,822 3,184
Indiana 4 Todd Rokita 732 1,953 2,690 3,030
Indiana 5 Susan W. Brooks 393 1,380 1,994 2,230
Indiana 6 Luke Messer 827 2,165 2,968 3,354
Indiana 7 André Carson 1,284 3,295 4,496 5,107
Indiana 8 Larry Bucshon 799 2,091 2,868 3,226
Indiana 9 Trey Hollingsworth 806 2,145 2,952 3,328
Iowa 1 Rod Blum 542 1,538 2,140 2,439
Iowa 2 David Loebsack 675 1,894 2,630 3,011
Iowa 3 David Young 507 1,546 2,181 2,489
Iowa 4 Steve King 611 1,704 2,363 2,701
Kansas 1 Roger W. Marshall 351 959 1,332 1,448
Kansas 2 Lynn Jenkins 386 1,041 1,443 1,566
Kansas 3 Kevin Yoder 170 767 1,153 1,218
Kansas 4 vacant 343 968 1,353 1,466
Kentucky 1 James Comer 3,623 9,361 12,764 14,783
Kentucky 2 Brett Guthrie 3,172 8,232 11,235 13,005
Kentucky 3 John A. Yarmuth 3,086 8,156 11,172 12,952
Kentucky 4 Thomas Massie 2,495 6,627 9,088 10,524
Kentucky 5 Harold Rogers 4,920 12,672 17,264 20,016
Kentucky 6 Andy Barr 3,459 9,065 12,395 14,367
Louisiana 1 Steve Scalise 1,376 3,743 5,173 5,842
Louisiana 2 Cedric L. Richmond 2,632 6,759 9,221 10,510
Louisiana 3 Clay Higgins 1,693 4,490 6,165 7,041
Louisiana 4 Mike Johnson 1,931 5,035 6,888 7,885
Louisiana 5 Ralph Lee Abraham 2,264 5,834 7,961 9,108
Louisiana 6 Garret Graves 1,422 3,825 5,270 5,993
Maine 1 Chellie Pingree 424 1,177 1,649 1,704
Maine 2 Bruce Poliquin 553 1,355 1,848 1,933
Maryland 1 Andy Harris 1,172 3,334 4,638 5,339
Maryland 2 C. A. Dutch Ruppersberger 1,552 4,199 5,784 6,659
Maryland 3 John P. Sarbanes 794 2,646 3,780 4,373
Maryland 4 Anthony G. Brown 1,042 3,059 4,280 4,929
Maryland 5 Steny H. Hoyer 650 2,184 3,123 3,614
Maryland 6 John K. Delaney 942 2,987 4,235 4,879
Maryland 7 Elijah E. Cummings 1,974 5,499 7,613 8,817
Maryland 8 Jamie Raskin 315 1,741 2,642 3,059
Massachusetts 1 Richard E. Neal 1,258 3,365 4,632 5,257
Massachusetts 2 James P. McGovern 920 2,630 3,669 4,154
Massachusetts 3 Niki Tsongas 793 2,466 3,490 3,964
Massachusetts 4 Joseph P. Kennedy, III 107 1,098 1,739 1,976
Massachusetts 5 Katherine M. Clark 236 1,391 2,126 2,423
Massachusetts 6 Seth Moulton 391 1,563 2,298 2,594
Massachusetts 7 Michael E. Capuano 1,528 4,261 5,906 6,772
Massachusetts 8 Stephen F. Lynch 476 1,774 2,582 2,925
Massachusetts 9 William R. Keating 841 2,431 3,398 3,837
Michigan 1 Jack Bergman 1,226 3,128 4,272 4,773
Michigan 2 Bill Huizenga 1,099 2,852 3,904 4,411
Michigan 3 Justin Amash 1,026 2,752 3,791 4,300
Michigan 4 John R. Moolenaar 1,184 3,093 4,236 4,814
Michigan 5 Daniel T. Kildee 1,340 3,470 4,742 5,414
Michigan 6 Fred Upton 1,203 3,146 4,311 4,883
Michigan 7 Tim Walberg 895 2,383 3,280 3,704
Michigan 8 Mike Bishop 769 2,234 3,128 3,524
Michigan 9 Sander M. Levin 1,053 2,825 3,896 4,374
Michigan 10 Paul Mitchell 910 2,396 3,296 3,675
Michigan 11 David A. Trott 321 1,269 1,866 2,075
Michigan 12 Debbie Dingell 1,082 2,925 4,034 4,593
Michigan 13 John Conyers, Jr. 2,037 5,211 7,098 8,154
Michigan 14 Brenda L. Lawrence 1,568 4,192 5,765 6,594
Minnesota 1 Timothy J. Walz 715 2,022 2,808 3,253
Minnesota 2 Jason Lewis 291 1,112 1,618 1,893
Minnesota 3 Erik Paulsen 10 642 1,062 1,283
Minnesota 4 Betty McCollum 752 2,294 3,227 3,764
Minnesota 5 Keith Ellison 1,064 3,064 4,266 4,970
Minnesota 6 Tom Emmer 457 1,384 1,945 2,254
Minnesota 7 Collin C. Peterson 799 2,180 3,007 3,476
Minnesota 8 Richard M. Nolan 910 2,448 3,367 3,892
Mississippi 1 Trent Kelly 503 1,339 1,846 2,052
Mississippi 2 Bennie G. Thompson 820 2,075 2,830 3,146
Mississippi 3 Gregg Harper 517 1,434 1,992 2,213
Mississippi 4 Steven M. Palazzo 520 1,387 1,912 2,132
Missouri 1 Wm. Lacy Clay 790 2,035 2,792 3,035
Missouri 2 Ann Wagner 75 681 1,083 1,119
Missouri 3 Blaine Luetkemeyer 472 1,262 1,749 1,879
Missouri 4 Vicky Hartzler 631 1,618 2,218 2,414
Missouri 5 Emanuel Cleaver 665 1,721 2,365 2,569
Missouri 6 Sam Graves 472 1,282 1,782 1,918
Missouri 7 Billy Long 735 1,856 2,539 2,744
Missouri 8 Jason Smith 669 1,689 2,306 2,530
Montana Statewide vacant 4,195 10,844 14,807 16,956
Nebraska 1 Jeff Fortenberry 188 554 787 798
Nebraska 2 Don Bacon 84 393 595 598
Nebraska 3 Adrian Smith 336 856 1,181 1,200
Nevada 1 Dina Titus 2,079 5,348 7,293 8,370
Nevada 2 Mark E. Amodei 1,440 3,826 5,256 5,994
Nevada 3 Jacky Rosen 888 2,541 3,543 4,037
Nevada 4 Ruben Kihuen 1,598 4,172 5,708 6,537
New Hampshire 1 Carol Shea-Porter 968 2,733 3,805 4,295
New Hampshire 2 Ann M. Kuster 952 2,683 3,733 4,227
New Jersey 1 Donald Norcross 2,149 5,769 7,932 9,145
New Jersey 2 Frank A. LoBiondo 2,418 6,419 8,807 10,153
New Jersey 3 Thomas MacArthur 1,004 2,958 4,142 4,753
New Jersey 4 Christopher H. Smith 1,532 4,511 6,312 7,292
New Jersey 5 Josh Gottheimer 705 2,590 3,757 4,322
New Jersey 6 Frank Pallone, Jr. 1,705 4,827 6,706 7,731
New Jersey 7 Leonard Lance 189 1,583 2,471 2,887
New Jersey 8 Albio Sires 3,348 8,947 12,287 14,218
New Jersey 9 Bill Pascrell, Jr. 2,776 7,473 10,280 11,864
New Jersey 10 Donald M. Payne, Jr. 3,553 9,339 12,781 14,782
New Jersey 11 Rodney P. Frelinghuysen 153 1,411 2,215 2,584
New Jersey 12 Bonnie Watson Coleman 1,343 4,101 5,773 6,682
New Mexico 1 Michelle Lujan Grisham 3,748 9,795 13,389 15,497
New Mexico 2 Stevan Pearce 4,438 11,467 15,636 18,106
New Mexico 3 Ben Ray Luján 3,867 10,066 13,748 15,911
New York 1 Lee M. Zeldin 132 271 538 695
New York 2 Peter T. King 102 237 462 594
New York 3 Thomas R. Suozzi 656 531 402 331
New York 4 Kathleen M. Rice 240 150 418 576
New York 5 Gregory W. Meeks 588 1,737 2,427 2,843
New York 6 Grace Meng 459 1,483 2,104 2,476
New York 7 Nydia M. Velázquez 1,091 3,203 4,472 5,245
New York 8 Hakeem S. Jeffries 1,076 3,019 4,181 4,888
New York 9 Yvette D. Clarke 789 2,349 3,287 3,857
New York 10 Jerrold Nadler 249 716 1,352 1,735
New York 11 Daniel M. Donovan, Jr. 410 1,444 2,074 2,456
New York 12 Carolyn B. Maloney 896 501 182 5
New York 13 Adriano Espaillat 1,393 3,769 5,183 6,048
New York 14 Joseph Crowley 817 2,268 3,135 3,661
New York 15 José E. Serrano 2,002 5,192 7,080 8,238
New York 16 Eliot L. Engel 114 985 1,533 1,864
New York 17 Nita M. Lowey 190 409 807 1,045
New York 18 Sean Patrick Maloney 51 691 1,096 1,340
New York 19 John J. Faso 374 1,224 1,739 2,051
New York 20 Paul Tonko 386 1,302 1,858 2,196
New York 21 Elise M. Stefanik 585 1,651 2,289 2,678
New York 22 Claudia Tenney 656 1,833 2,536 2,966
New York 23 Tom Reed 687 1,922 2,661 3,112
New York 24 John Katko 561 1,662 2,324 2,727
New York 25 Louise McIntosh Slaughter 590 1,763 2,468 2,898
New York 26 Brian Higgins 800 2,219 3,067 3,585
New York 27 Chris Collins 250 896 1,290 1,528
North Carolina 1 G. K. Butterfield 1,315 3,320 4,522 5,075
North Carolina 2 George Holding 878 2,347 3,240 3,580
North Carolina 3 Walter B. Jones 985 2,531 3,464 3,852
North Carolina 4 David E. Price 948 2,611 3,626 4,016
North Carolina 5 Virginia Foxx 1,021 2,677 3,680 4,085
North Carolina 6 Mark Walker 847 2,271 3,138 3,465
North Carolina 7 David Rouzer 1,090 2,804 3,839 4,256
North Carolina 8 Richard Hudson 1,132 2,864 3,904 4,356
North Carolina 9 Robert Pittenger 280 1,248 1,867 2,019
North Carolina 10 Patrick T. McHenry 1,042 2,674 3,660 4,048
North Carolina 11 Mark Meadows 1,148 2,889 3,939 4,349
North Carolina 12 Alma S. Adams 1,580 3,951 5,376 5,966
North Carolina 13 Ted Budd 612 1,829 2,583 2,814
North Dakota Statewide Kevin Cramer 934 2,624 3,646 4,151
Ohio 1 Steve Chabot 1,216 3,394 4,704 5,414
Ohio 2 Brad R. Wenstrup 1,057 2,963 4,111 4,725
Ohio 3 Joyce Beatty 1,867 4,879 6,673 7,688
Ohio 4 Jim Jordan 1,129 2,972 4,072 4,680
Ohio 5 Robert E. Latta 957 2,602 3,589 4,122
Ohio 6 Bill Johnson 1,309 3,419 4,677 5,372
Ohio 7 Bob Gibbs 1,105 2,933 4,026 4,614
Ohio 8 Warren Davidson 1,103 2,958 4,068 4,669
Ohio 9 Marcy Kaptur 1,655 4,327 5,919 6,818
Ohio 10 Michael R. Turner 1,298 3,489 4,800 5,525
Ohio 11 Marcia L. Fudge 1,957 5,194 7,124 8,226
Ohio 12 Patrick J. Tiberi 655 2,063 2,922 3,364
Ohio 13 Tim Ryan 1,511 3,926 5,366 6,160
Ohio 14 David P. Joyce 604 1,848 2,607 2,972
Ohio 15 Steve Stivers 994 2,746 3,798 4,366
Ohio 16 James B. Renacci 565 1,673 2,347 2,673
Oklahoma 1 Jim Bridenstine 245 798 1,147 1,213
Oklahoma 2 Markwayne Mullin 369 957 1,318 1,420
Oklahoma 3 Frank D. Lucas 292 823 1,154 1,226
Oklahoma 4 Tom Cole 291 826 1,159 1,230
Oklahoma 5 Steve Russell 313 961 1,367 1,455
Oregon 1 Suzanne Bonamici 2,371 6,413 8,833 10,176
Oregon 2 Greg Walden 3,546 9,149 12,482 14,352
Oregon 3 Earl Blumenauer 3,493 9,167 12,551 14,441
Oregon 4 Peter A. DeFazio 3,882 10,040 13,698 15,812
Oregon 5 Kurt Schrader 2,881 7,582 10,383 11,968
Pennsylvania 1 Robert A. Brady 1,262 3,318 4,553 5,160
Pennsylvania 2 Dwight Evans 1,239 3,416 4,729 5,388
Pennsylvania 3 Mike Kelly 661 1,812 2,508 2,837
Pennsylvania 4 Scott Perry 585 1,614 2,240 2,497
Pennsylvania 5 Glenn Thompson 732 1,948 2,679 3,035
Pennsylvania 6 Ryan A. Costello 163 912 1,393 1,532
Pennsylvania 7 Patrick Meehan 94 784 1,234 1,343
Pennsylvania 8 Brian K. Fitzpatrick 227 1,013 1,518 1,629
Pennsylvania 9 Bill Shuster 778 2,026 2,776 3,130
Pennsylvania 10 Tom Marino 704 1,868 2,572 2,874
Pennsylvania 11 Lou Barletta 645 1,749 2,418 2,712
Pennsylvania 12 Keith J. Rothfus 417 1,304 1,851 2,067
Pennsylvania 13 Brendan F. Boyle 690 1,975 2,761 3,078
Pennsylvania 14 Michael F. Doyle 901 2,417 3,330 3,768
Pennsylvania 15 Charles W. Dent 574 1,652 2,310 2,581
Pennsylvania 16 Lloyd Smucker 743 2,009 2,776 3,114
Pennsylvania 17 Matt Cartwright 748 1,969 2,706 3,027
Pennsylvania 18 Tim Murphy 340 1,136 1,632 1,813
Rhode Island 1 David N. Cicilline 1,736 4,626 6,354 7,303
Rhode Island 2 James R. Langevin 1,378 3,700 5,092 5,833
South Carolina 1 Mark Sanford 218 754 1,099 1,118
South Carolina 2 Joe Wilson 228 682 970 998
South Carolina 3 Jeff Duncan 332 845 1,163 1,208
South Carolina 4 Trey Gowdy 328 902 1,262 1,300
South Carolina 5 vacant 325 850 1,177 1,220
South Carolina 6 James E. Clyburn 426 1,036 1,410 1,472
South Carolina 7 Tom Rice 486 1,197 1,637 1,695
South Dakota Statewide Kristi L. Noem 239 748 1,069 1,128
Tennessee 1 David P. Roe 1,049 2,712 3,711 4,181
Tennessee 2 John J. Duncan, Jr. 819 2,223 3,074 3,452
Tennessee 3 Charles J. “Chuck” Fleischmann 928 2,443 3,354 3,779
Tennessee 4 Scott DesJarlais 901 2,365 3,245 3,659
Tennessee 5 Jim Cooper 982 2,666 3,686 4,130
Tennessee 6 Diane Black 861 2,273 3,124 3,508
Tennessee 7 Marsha Blackburn 708 2,038 2,849 3,210
Tennessee 8 David Kustoff 629 1,836 2,573 2,895
Tennessee 9 Steve Cohen 1,361 3,501 4,781 5,426
Texas 1 Louie Gohmert 395 1,072 1,490 1,603
Texas 2 Ted Poe 98 735 1,155 1,200
Texas 3 Sam Johnson 25 621 1,023 1,038
Texas 4 John Ratcliffe 356 998 1,396 1,497
Texas 5 Jeb Hensarling 468 1,236 1,708 1,826
Texas 6 Joe Barton 397 1,120 1,571 1,656
Texas 7 John Abney Culberson 100 474 869 899
Texas 8 Kevin Brady 164 754 1,134 1,201
Texas 9 Al Green 681 1,710 2,339 2,499
Texas 10 Michael T. McCaul 239 946 1,401 1,466
Texas 11 K. Michael Conaway 249 820 1,178 1,263
Texas 12 Kay Granger 331 1,027 1,466 1,539
Texas 13 Mac Thornberry 302 843 1,177 1,271
Texas 14 Randy K. Weber, Sr. 291 919 1,314 1,404
Texas 15 Vicente Gonzalez 640 1,622 2,218 2,420
Texas 16 Beto O’Rourke 800 1,956 2,663 2,818
Texas 17 Bill Flores 397 1,104 1,541 1,668
Texas 18 Sheila Jackson Lee 586 1,557 2,154 2,312
Texas 19 Jodey C. Arrington 321 910 1,274 1,383
Texas 20 Joaquin Castro 578 1,448 1,979 2,113
Texas 21 Lamar Smith 225 919 1,367 1,431
Texas 22 Pete Olson 76 738 1,180 1,198
Texas 23 Will Hurd 480 1,334 1,863 1,991
Texas 24 Kenny Marchant 85 684 1,080 1,120
Texas 25 Roger Williams 188 812 1,216 1,277
Texas 26 Michael C. Burgess 165 771 1,166 1,199
Texas 27 Blake Farenthold 378 1,037 1,444 1,553
Texas 28 Henry Cuellar 668 1,667 2,275 2,450
Texas 29 Gene Green 756 1,828 2,477 2,668
Texas 30 Eddie Bernice Johnson 632 1,591 2,176 2,335
Texas 31 John R. Carter 288 886 1,263 1,325
Texas 32 Pete Sessions 117 765 1,189 1,246
Texas 33 Marc A. Veasey 758 1,832 2,480 2,681
Texas 34 Filemon Vela 660 1,662 2,270 2,476
Texas 35 Lloyd Doggett 716 1,748 2,375 2,551
Texas 36 Brian Babin 372 1,051 1,474 1,565
Utah 1 Rob Bishop 503 1,315 1,818 1,903
Utah 2 Chris Stewart 621 1,607 2,217 2,331
Utah 3 Jason Chaffetz 579 1,544 2,143 2,238
Utah 4 Mia B. Love 610 1,540 2,114 2,208
Vermont Statewide Peter Welch 1,137 3,011 4,140 4,664
Virginia 1 Robert J. Wittman 156 742 1,125 1,145
Virginia 2 Scott Taylor 295 885 1,257 1,304
Virginia 3 Robert C. “Bobby” Scott 448 1,150 1,580 1,693
Virginia 4 A. Donald McEachin 406 1,103 1,539 1,593
Virginia 5 Thomas A. Garrett, Jr. 440 1,208 1,687 1,762
Virginia 6 Bob Goodlatte 440 1,150 1,590 1,669
Virginia 7 Dave Brat 201 844 1,263 1,283
Virginia 8 Donald S. Beyer, Jr. 310 184 547 520
Virginia 9 H. Morgan Griffith 434 1,124 1,549 1,644
Virginia 10 Barbara Comstock 428 6 319 267
Virginia 11 Gerald E. Connolly 117 486 908 887
Washington 1 Suzan K. DelBene 819 2,627 3,732 4,294
Washington 2 Rick Larsen 1,713 4,539 6,228 7,154
Washington 3 Jaime Herrera Beutler 1,797 4,732 6,484 7,453
Washington 4 Dan Newhouse 2,406 6,289 8,598 9,945
Washington 5 Cathy McMorris Rodgers 2,105 5,508 7,534 8,686
Washington 6 Derek Kilmer 1,620 4,338 5,962 6,867
Washington 7 Pramila Jayapal 1,151 3,622 5,127 5,933
Washington 8 David G. Reichert 1,217 3,485 4,855 5,584
Washington 9 Adam Smith 1,718 4,846 6,728 7,765
Washington 10 Denny Heck 1,630 4,315 5,916 6,821
West Virginia 1 David B. McKinley 1,801 4,706 6,435 7,436
West Virginia 2 Alexander X. Mooney 1,623 4,284 5,869 6,778
West Virginia 3 Evan H. Jenkins 2,121 5,509 7,520 8,701
Wisconsin 1 Paul D. Ryan 270 803 1,138 1,187
Wisconsin 2 Mark Pocan 185 668 976 1,026
Wisconsin 3 Ron Kind 395 1,024 1,413 1,482
Wisconsin 4 Gwen Moore 466 1,214 1,673 1,797
Wisconsin 5 F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr. 147 604 901 925
Wisconsin 6 Glenn Grothman 286 817 1,152 1,195
Wisconsin 7 Sean P. Duffy 492 1,244 1,710 1,776
Wisconsin 8 Mike Gallagher 378 1,006 1,398 1,450
Wyoming Statewide Liz Cheney 199 582 824 853

The nongroup market spending is the net outcome of repealing ACA subsidies and introducing new AHCA tax credits. We take estimates of current health exchange enrollees by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and apply estimates from Cutler (2017) on the change in enrollment spurred by the AHCA to get a measure of remaining enrollment in nongroup markets by congressional district (CD). We use this measure to allocate the nationwide amount of tax credits estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). We also provide an age adjustment that estimates higher tax credits going to CDs whose age 18–64 population skews older, reflecting the fact that under the AHCA tax credits are larger for older enrollees. Specifically, we multiply the share of the 18–64 population that is between 30 and 49 by 1.375 and the share that is 50 and over by 1.875, reflecting the greater generosity of tax credits for these populations relative to those received by the under-30 population.

For Medicaid spending we allocate the CBO estimates of Medicaid spending reductions across states by using the Blumberg et al. (2016) estimates of how partial ACA repeal would be borne. Within states, we allocate the incidence of these spending cuts across CDs proportionally to each CD’s share of the population with incomes beneath the federal poverty line.

For tax cuts, we assume 40 percent of the revenue accrues uniformly across CDs, while allocating 60 percent of it proportionally to each CD’s total share of the population with incomes over $150,000.

Output multipliers are 1.4 for the nongroup spending reductions, 2 for Medicaid spending reductions, and 0.4 for the tax cuts. These parameter choices are explained in Bivens (2017). In 2019, we divide the output change by $146,000 to get employment changes, also explained in Bivens (2017). For each year after 2019, we increase this divisor by 1.5 percent, reflecting expected productivity growth over that time.

Source: Author's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2016a), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS 2016e), and BLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and computations, see the appendix.

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The nongroup market spending is the net outcome of repealing ACA subsidies and introducing new AHCA tax credits. We take estimates of current health exchange enrollees by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and apply estimates from Cutler (2017) on the change in enrollment spurred by the AHCA to get a measure of remaining enrollment in nongroup markets by congressional district (CD). We use this measure to allocate the nationwide amount of tax credits estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). We also provide an age adjustment that estimates higher tax credits going to CDs whose age 18–64 population skews older, reflecting the fact that under the AHCA tax credits are larger for older enrollees. Specifically, we multiply the share of the 18–64 population that is between 30 and 49 by 1.375 and the share that is 50 and over by 1.875, reflecting the greater generosity of tax credits for these populations relative to those received by the under-30 population.

For Medicaid spending we allocate the CBO estimates of Medicaid spending reductions across states by using the Blumberg et al. (2016) estimates of how partial ACA repeal would be borne. Within states, we allocate the incidence of these spending cuts across CDs proportionally to each CD’s share of the population with incomes beneath the federal poverty line.

For tax cuts, we assume 40 percent of the revenue accrues uniformly across CDs, while allocating 60 percent of it proportionally to each CD’s total share of the population with incomes over $150,000.

Output multipliers are 1.4 for the nongroup spending reductions, 2 for Medicaid spending reductions, and 0.4 for the tax cuts. These parameter choices are explained in Bivens (2017). In 2019, we divide the output change by $146,000 to get employment changes, also explained in Bivens (2017). For each year after 2019, we increase this divisor by 1.5 percent, reflecting expected productivity growth over that time.

References

American Community Survey. 2017. “American Factfinder Tables on households below the Federal Poverty Line (FPL) and over $150,000 in household income.”

Angrist, Joshua, Òscar Jordà, and Guido M. Kuersteiner. 2013. “Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited,” Working Paper Series 2013-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Bivens, Josh. 2017. Repealing the Affordable Care Act Would Cost Jobs in Every State. Economic Policy Institute.

Blumberg, Linda, Matthew Buettgens, and John Holahan. 2016. Implications of Partial Repeal of the ACA through Reconciliation. http://www.urban.org/research/publication/implications-partial-repeal-aca-through-reconciliation

Congressional Budget Office. 2017. Cost estimate of the American Health Care Act. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52486

Cutler, David, and Emily Gee. 2017. Coverage Losses by Congressional District under the House ACA Repeal Bill. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/news/2017/03/17/428601/coverage-losses-congressional-district-house-aca-repeal-bill/

Kaiser Family Foundation. 2016. Estimated 2016 ACA Marketplace Enrollment by Congressional District. http://kff.org/health-reform/press-release/new-interactive-map-with-local-data-estimated-2016-aca-marketplace-enrollment-by-congressional-district/

Summers, Lawrence. 2014. “U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound,” Business Economics, vol. 49, no. 2, National Association for Business Economics.

Tax Policy Center. 2016. Tables from: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/simulations/distribution-affordable-care-act-taxes-dec-2016


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