Figure C
Long-run spending projection dominated by health cost growth assumptions, not demography: Social Security and Medicare cost projections, 2007 and 2015
| 2007 Social Security | 2015 Social Security | 2007 Medicare | 2015 Medicare | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| 2016 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| 2017 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 2.9 |
| 2018 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| 2019 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| 2020 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| 2021 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| 2022 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| 2024 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.3 |
| 2025 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| 2026 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| 2027 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 3.8 |
| 2028 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| 2029 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| 2030 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 4.2 |
| 2031 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 4.3 |
| 2032 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 4.4 |
| 2033 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.5 |
| 2034 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 |
| 2035 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 4.7 |
| 2036 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 4.7 |
| 2037 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 4.8 |
| 2038 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 4.9 |
| 2039 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 |
| 2040 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 |
| 2041 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 5.2 |
| 2042 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 5.3 |
| 2043 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.4 |
| 2044 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 |
| 2045 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 |
| 2046 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.6 |
| 2047 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.7 |
| 2048 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 5.7 |
| 2049 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 5.8 |
| 2050 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 5.9 |
| 2051 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 |
| 2052 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 6.0 |
| 2053 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 6.1 |
| 2054 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 6.2 |
| 2055 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 6.3 |
| 2056 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 6.3 |
| 2057 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 6.4 |
| 2058 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 6.5 |
| 2059 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 10.4 | 6.6 |
| 2060 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 6.7 |
| 2061 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 6.8 |
| 2062 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 6.9 |
| 2063 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 11.1 | 7.0 |
| 2064 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 11.3 | 7.1 |
| 2065 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 11.5 | 7.2 |
| 2066 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 11.7 | 7.3 |
| 2067 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 11.9 | 7.4 |
| 2068 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 12.1 | 7.5 |
| 2069 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 12.3 | 7.5 |
| 2070 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 |
| 2071 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 |
| 2072 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 12.8 | 7.9 |
| 2073 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 13.0 | 8.0 |
| 2074 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 13.2 | 8.1 |
| 2075 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 13.4 | 8.2 |
| 2076 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 13.6 | 8.3 |
| 2077 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 13.8 | 8.4 |
| 2078 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 14.0 | 8.5 |
| 2079 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 14.2 | 8.6 |
| 2080 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 14.4 | 8.7 |
| 2081 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 14.6 | 8.8 |
| 2082 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 14.8 | 8.9 |
Source: Congressional Budget Office Budget and Economic Outlooks from 2007 and 2015
This chart appears in:
Previous chart: « Rapid fall in health care cost growth provides large budget cushion: Medicare spending as a percent of GDP, 2007 projection vs. actual, 2006–2017