Figure 1
Recessions are the main time when CBO's debt projections are significantly off: Errors in CBO's budget-year debt projections as a percentage of GDP
| Year | Budget-Year Debt Error |
|---|---|
| 1985 | 0.827 |
| 1986 | -0.315 |
| 1987 | -0.708 |
| 1988 | -0.038 |
| 1989 | 0.929 |
| 1990 | -1.074 |
| 1991 | -3.482 |
| 1992 | 0.609 |
| 1993 | 2.342 |
| 1994 | 1.703 |
| 1995 | 0.680 |
| 1996 | 1.168 |
| 1997 | 2.123 |
| 1998 | 3.376 |
| 1999 | 1.808 |
| 2000 | 1.646 |
| 2001 | 0.916 |
| 2002 | -4.032 |
| 2003 | -2.545 |
| 2004 | 0.382 |
| 2005 | 1.800 |
| 2006 | 2.331 |
| 2007 | 2.324 |
| 2008 | -2.050 |
| 2009 | -8.817 |
| 2010 | -0.919 |
| 2011 | 2.004 |
| 2012 | 2.227 |
| 2013 | 2.564 |
| 2014 | -0.199 |
| 2015 | 1.463 |
| 2016 | -0.421 |
| 2017 | -0.388 |
| 2018 | 0.286 |
Source: EPI analysis of Congressional Budget Office's September 2019 report on past deficits and data projections.
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