Figure D
Official poverty rates and predicted rates using 1959 to 1979 GDP-poverty relationship, 1959--2019
Simulated poverty rate | Actual poverty rate | |
---|---|---|
1959 | 22.1% | 22.4% |
1960 | 22.0% | 22.2% |
1961 | 21.7% | 21.9% |
1962 | 20.6% | 21.0% |
1963 | 19.8% | 19.5% |
1964 | 18.6% | 19.0% |
1965 | 17.1% | 17.3% |
1966 | 15.4% | 14.7% |
1967 | 14.9% | 14.2% |
1968 | 13.7% | 12.8% |
1969 | 12.9% | 12.1% |
1970 | 13.3% | 12.6% |
1971 | 12.6% | 12.5% |
1972 | 11.1% | 11.9% |
1973 | 9.4% | 11.1% |
1974 | 10.0% | 11.2% |
1975 | 10.4% | 12.3% |
1976 | 8.8% | 11.8% |
1977 | 7.4% | 11.6% |
1978 | 5.7% | 11.4% |
1979 | 4.8% | 11.7% |
1980 | 5.4% | 13.0% |
1981 | 4.8% | 14.0% |
1982 | 5.9% | 15.0% |
1983 | 4.4% | 15.2% |
1984 | 1.7% | 14.4% |
1985 | 0.2% | 14.0% |
1986 | -1.0% | 13.6% |
1987 | 13.4% | |
1988 | 13.0% | |
1989 | 12.8% | |
1990 | 13.5% | |
1991 | 14.2% | |
1992 | 14.8% | |
1993 | 15.1% | |
1994 | 14.5% | |
1995 | 13.8% | |
1996 | 13.7% | |
1997 | 13.3% | |
1998 | 12.7% | |
1999 | 11.9% | |
2000 | 11.3% | |
2001 | 11.7% | |
2002 | 12.1% | |
2003 | 12.5% | |
2004 | 12.7% | |
2005 | 12.6% | |
2006 | 12.3% | |
2007 | 12.5% | |
2008 | 13.2% | |
2009 | 14.3% | |
2010 | 15.1% | |
2011 | 15.0% | |
2012 | 15.0% | |
2013 | 14.8% | |
2014 | 14.8% | |
2015 | 13.5% | |
2016 | 12.7% | |
2017 | 12.3% | |
2018 | 11.8% | |
2019 | 10.5% |
Note: Simulated poverty rate is based on a model of the statistical relationship between growth in per capita GDP and poverty that prevailed between 1959 and 1973.
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