Going from $600 to $200 will significantly damage job growth over the next year: Average reduction in personal income, GDP, and employment over the next year if $600 weekly UI supplement is reduced to $200, August 2020 to July 2021
| Personal income (millions) | GDP | Jobs supported | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S., total | $339,080 | 2.5% | 3,388,798 |
| Alabama | $3,266 | 2.1% | 28,841 |
| Alaska | $830 | 2.2% | 8,305 |
| Arizona | $3,746 | 1.5% | 37,044 |
| Arkansas | $2,040 | 2.3% | 19,989 |
| California | $48,639 | 2.3% | 557,428 |
| Colorado | $4,398 | 1.7% | 44,599 |
| Connecticut | $4,687 | 2.5% | 49,793 |
| Delaware | $891 | 1.8% | 9,747 |
| District of Columbia | $1,214 | 1.2% | 13,074 |
| Florida | $18,437 | 2.5% | 163,280 |
| Georgia | $12,822 | 3.1% | 124,403 |
| Hawaii | $2,260 | 3.5% | 21,834 |
| Idaho | $929 | 1.7% | 6,699 |
| Illinois | $12,746 | 2.1% | 130,099 |
| Indiana | $4,219 | 1.7% | 39,629 |
| Iowa | $2,948 | 2.3% | 28,387 |
| Kansas | $1,742 | 1.5% | 17,393 |
| Kentucky | $3,857 | 2.7% | 33,168 |
| Louisiana | $5,437 | 3.1% | 54,630 |
| Maine | $2,030 | 4.5% | 12,017 |
| Maryland | $4,316 | 1.5% | 44,991 |
| Massachusetts | $10,162 | 2.6% | 104,775 |
| Michigan | $15,813 | 4.4% | 129,680 |
| Minnesota | $7,073 | 2.8% | 71,756 |
| Mississippi | $3,007 | 3.8% | 28,496 |
| Missouri | $4,292 | 1.9% | 39,607 |
| Montana | $856 | 2.5% | 7,867 |
| Nebraska | $1,067 | 1.3% | 10,282 |
| Nevada | $5,953 | 5.0% | 56,111 |
| New Hampshire | $1,839 | 3.1% | 17,961 |
| New Jersey | $9,892 | 2.3% | 98,607 |
| New Mexico | $1,821 | 2.6% | 19,341 |
| New York | $30,758 | 2.7% | 309,312 |
| North Carolina | $9,721 | 2.5% | 94,997 |
| North Dakota | $535 | 1.4% | 6,195 |
| Ohio | $10,523 | 2.3% | 86,399 |
| Oklahoma | $2,601 | 1.9% | 30,679 |
| Oregon | $4,809 | 2.9% | 77,066 |
| Pennsylvania | $16,302 | 3.0% | 168,428 |
| Rhode Island | $1,434 | 3.4% | 13,485 |
| South Carolina | $3,990 | 2.4% | 36,322 |
| South Dakota | $379 | 1.1% | 3,405 |
| Tennessee | $5,571 | 2.2% | 53,513 |
| Texas | $22,370 | 1.8% | 243,051 |
| Utah | $1,404 | 1.1% | 13,819 |
| Vermont | $849 | 3.7% | 7,888 |
| Virginia | $6,900 | 1.9% | 71,033 |
| Washington | $11,019 | 2.8% | 81,483 |
| West Virginia | $1,550 | 3.0% | 15,071 |
| Wisconsin | $4,851 | 2.1% | 43,757 |
| Wyoming | $286 | 1.1% | 3,064 |
Note: We take the relationship between the unemployment rate and the boost to personal income from the extra $600 payment that held in May of 2020 and assume it falls to $200 beginning August. We apply a multiplier of 1.5 to the personal income decline provided by cutting back on the enhanced UI benefit. We then divide this boost by overall GDP, and apply the resulting percentage change to the average level of employment in the first quarter of 2020 to get an implied employment reduction. The numbers in the chart are the average reductions to personal income, GDP, and employment between the third quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2021. Some quarters would see even larger effects.
Source: Author’s analysis based on data from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and data on continuing unemployment insurance claims from the Department of Labor (DOL).
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