Figure E

Great Recession left capital overhang for many years: Capital per effective hour worked, 2000–2016

Date Actual If grew at 2001–2016 trend
2001Q1 95.18842 95.18842
2001Q2 96.80143 96.80143
2001Q3 99.16911 99.16911
2001Q4 100.6097 100.6097
2002Q1 100.3972 100.3972
2002Q2 100.7837 100.7837
2002Q3 101.4129 101.4129
2002Q4 101.7184 101.7184
2003Q1 102.1781 102.1781
2003Q2 101.9314 101.9314
2003Q3 100.8558 100.8558
2003Q4 100.2555 100.2555
2004Q1 100.0221 100.0221
2004Q2 99.79163 99.79163
2004Q3 99.06629 99.06629
2004Q4 99.56107 99.56107
2005Q1 99.68006 99.68006
2005Q2 99.63486 99.63486
2005Q3 99.64274 99.64274
2005Q4 99.65397 99.65397
2006Q1 98.7077 98.7077
2006Q2 99.48631 99.48631
2006Q3 100.1018 100.1018
2006Q4 100 100
2007Q1 100.8962 100.2146
2007Q2 101.3084 100.4297
2007Q3 102.5899 100.6453
2007Q4 103.2827 100.8613
2008Q1 105.3334 101.0778
2008Q2 106.2495 101.2947
2008Q3 108.2258 101.5121
2008Q4 113.1574 101.73
2009Q1 116.9554 101.9483
2009Q2 118.2578 102.1671
2009Q3 118.0962 102.3864
2009Q4 116.5111 102.6062
2010Q1 116.4661 102.8264
2010Q2 114.9426 103.0471
2010Q3 113.6894 103.2683
2010Q4 113.1982 103.4899
2011Q1 113.5636 103.712
2011Q2 112.8462 103.9346
2011Q3 112.6995 104.1577
2011Q4 111.2255 104.3812
2012Q1 109.6455 104.6053
2012Q2 110.2333 104.8298
2012Q3 110.4361 105.0548
2012Q4 110.4422 105.2803
2013Q1 110.7205 105.5062
2013Q2 110.9847 105.7327
2013Q3 110.7139 105.9596
2013Q4 110.2292 106.187
2014Q1 111.2618 106.4149
2014Q2 109.766 106.6433
2014Q3 108.8639 106.8722
2014Q4 108.0041 107.1016
2015Q1 108.0911 107.3315
2015Q2 108.2452 107.5618
2015Q3 108.6177 107.7927
2015Q4 108.7891 108.0241
2016Q1 108.8076 108.2559
2016Q2 109.3902 108.4883
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Notes: Capital services are measured as an index, with the growth rate coming from Fernald data on growth. Effective hours of work is a measure of growth of total hours plus the growth of labor quality plus growth in total factor productivity, as measured by Fernald.

Source: Data from Fernald (2016).

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