Appendix Table B

Measuring the effect of a COLA cut, by age and gender

Retirees
Age Male (A) Female (B) Benefit with COLA (C) Benefit without COLA (D) Total cost with COLA (A+B) x C Total cost without COLA (A+B) x D
(62=100,000) (62=100,000) Nominal ($) Real ($) PV ($) Nominal ($) Real ($) PV ($)  Nominal ($) Real ($) PV ($) Nominal ($) Real ($) PV ($)
62 100,000 100,000 100 100 100.0 100 100.0 100.0 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000
63 98,717 99,120 103 100 95.4 100 97.1 92.6 20,377,202 19,783,691 18,867,780 19,783,691 19,207,467 18,318,233
64 97,337 98,165 106 100 91.0 100 94.3 85.7 20,740,808 19,550,201 17,781,900 19,550,201 18,427,939 16,761,146
65 95,850 97,130 109 100 86.7 100 91.5 79.4 21,087,523 19,298,071 16,739,956 19,298,071 17,660,469 15,319,431
66 94,250 96,007 113 100 82.7 100 88.8 73.5 21,413,639 19,025,741 15,739,664 19,025,741 16,904,124 13,984,487
67 92,530 94,790 116 100 78.9 100 86.3 68.1 21,715,527 18,732,005 14,779,223 18,732,005 16,158,392 12,748,688
68 90,690 93,477 119 100 75.2 100 83.7 63.0 21,990,561 18,416,749 13,857,784 18,416,749 15,423,737 11,605,676
69 88,730 92,071 123 100 71.8 100 81.3 58.3 22,236,227 18,080,087 12,974,625 18,080,087 14,700,765 10,549,557
70 86,653 90,567 127 100 68.4 100 78.9 54.0 22,449,754 17,722,043 12,128,904 17,722,043 13,989,945 9,574,669
71 84,445 88,957 130 100 65.3 100 76.6 50.0 22,625,037 17,340,207 11,318,151 17,340,207 13,289,825 8,674,420
72 82,102 87,230 134 100 62.2 100 74.4 46.3 22,756,728 16,933,143 10,540,768 16,933,143 12,599,849 7,843,322
73 79,630 85,389 138 100 59.4 100 72.2 42.9 22,842,579 16,501,965 9,796,791 16,501,965 11,921,371 7,077,410
74 77,050 83,443 143 100 56.6 100 70.1 39.7 22,882,566 16,049,372 9,086,982 16,049,372 11,256,706 6,373,426
75 74,363 81,389 147 100 54.0 100 68.1 36.8 22,872,624 15,575,144 8,410,216 15,575,144 10,605,915 5,726,948
76 71,557 79,209 151 100 51.5 100 66.1 34.0 22,804,617 15,076,539 7,764,084 15,076,539 9,967,368 5,132,974
77 68,616 76,887 156 100 49.1 100 64.2 31.5 22,668,906 14,550,308 7,146,185 14,550,308 9,339,289 4,586,864
78 65,541 74,426 160 100 46.8 100 62.3 29.2 22,460,585 13,996,694 6,556,031 13,996,694 8,722,277 4,085,502
79 62,342 71,830 165 100 44.7 100 60.5 27.0 22,176,529 13,417,165 5,993,627 13,417,165 8,117,606 3,626,243
80 59,019 69,097 170 100 42.6 100 58.7 25.0 21,810,902 12,811,606 5,458,157 12,811,606 7,525,468 3,206,092
81 55,581 66,217 175 100 40.6 100 57.0 23.2 21,357,253 12,179,743 4,948,733 12,179,743 6,945,937 2,822,193
82 52,019 63,172 181 100 38.7 100 55.4 21.5 20,804,790 11,519,108 4,463,630 11,519,108 6,377,851 2,471,404
83 48,327 59,943 186 100 37.0 100 53.8 19.9 20,141,375 10,826,981 4,001,200 10,826,981 5,820,036 2,150,842
84 44,493 56,516 192 100 35.2 100 52.2 18.4 19,354,295 10,100,862 3,560,039 10,100,862 5,271,564 1,857,958
85 40,539 52,886 197 100 33.6 100 50.7 17.0 18,438,106 9,342,436 3,140,291 9,342,436 4,733,735 1,591,160
86 36,506 49,067 203 100 32.1 100 49.2 15.8 17,395,360 8,557,364 2,743,237 8,557,364 4,209,656 1,349,491
87 32,464 45,090 209 100 30.6 100 47.8 14.6 16,238,187 7,755,448 2,371,066 7,755,448 3,704,045 1,132,434
88 28,482 41,002 216 100 29.2 100 46.4 13.5 14,984,999 6,948,465 2,025,998 6,948,465 3,221,966 939,445
89 24,636 36,859 222 100 27.8 100 45.0 12.5 13,659,786 6,149,486 1,710,025 6,149,486 2,768,431 769,835
90 20,989 32,721 229 100 26.5 100 43.7 11.6 12,288,276 5,370,920 1,424,380 5,370,920 2,347,504 622,563
91 17,595 28,653 236 100 25.3 100 42.4 10.7 10,898,762 4,624,850 1,169,737 4,624,850 1,962,538 496,374
92 14,499 24,720 243 100 24.1 100 41.2 9.9 9,519,436 3,921,882 946,016 3,921,882 1,615,763 389,746
93 11,727 20,983 250 100 23.0 100 40.0 9.2 8,177,734 3,270,989 752,483 3,270,989 1,308,353 300,983
94 9,295 17,497 258 100 21.9 100 38.8 8.5 6,899,145 2,679,193 587,807 2,679,193 1,040,430 228,267
95 7,207 14,310 265 100 20.9 100 37.7 7.9 5,707,044 2,151,705 450,223 2,151,705 811,249 169,746
96 5,468 11,475 273 100 20.0 100 36.6 7.3 4,628,658 1,694,297 338,102 1,694,297 620,189 123,760
97 4,059 9,021 281 100 19.0 100 35.5 6.8 3,680,365 1,307,941 248,920 1,307,941 464,820 88,462
98 2,950 6,954 290 100 18.2 100 34.5 6.3 2,870,517 990,421 179,765 990,421 341,727 62,025
99 2,103 5,262 299 100 17.3 100 33.5 5.8 2,198,462 736,447 127,479 736,447 246,697 42,703
100 1,472 3,913 307 100 16.5 100 32.5 5.4 1,655,773 538,501 88,899 538,501 175,135 28,912
101 1,012 2,855 317 100 15.7 100 31.6 5.0 1,224,434 386,619 60,871 386,619 122,076 19,220
102 681 2,042 326 100 15.0 100 30.7 4.6 888,250 272,299 40,887 272,299 83,475 12,534
103 448 1,428 336 100 14.3 100 29.8 4.3 630,581 187,678 26,876 187,678 55,858 7,999
104 288 976 346 100 13.7 100 28.9 3.9 437,550 126,434 17,268 126,434 36,534 4,990
105 181 651 356 100 13.0 100 28.1 3.7 296,263 83,115 10,826 83,115 23,317 3,037
106 111 422 367 100 12.4 100 27.2 3.4 195,821 53,336 6,625 53,336 14,527 1,805
107 66 266 378 100 11.8 100 26.4 3.1 125,495 33,186 3,931 33,186 8,776 1,040
108 38 162 390 100 11.3 100 25.7 2.9 77,770 19,966 2,256 19,966 5,126 579
109 21 95 401 100 10.8 100 24.9 2.7 46,819 11,670 1,257 11,670 2,909 313
110 11 54 413 100 10.3 100 24.2 2.5 26,980 6,529 671 6,529 1,580 162
111 6 29 426 100 9.8 100 23.5 2.3 14,896 3,500 343 3,500 822 81
112 3 15 438 100 9.3 100 22.8 2.1 7,646 1,744 163 1,744 398 37
113 1 7 452 100 8.9 100 22.1 2.0 3,679 815 73 815 180 16
114 3 465 100 8.5 100 21.5 1.8 1,601 344 29 344 74 6
115 1 479 100 8.1 550 115 9
116 1 493 100 7.7 566 115 9
Sum all ages: 13,607 5,500 2,001 5,300 2,717 1,327 652,789,540 434,715,236 260,390,952 434,715,006 310,161,796 202,885,211
Percent change without COLA: -61% -51% -34% -33% -29% -22%
Sum ages 62–84: 3,245 2,300 1,434 2,300 1,694 1,120 499,570,030 367,487,425 241,914,429 367,487,425 280,233,900 194,497,485
Percent change without COLA: -29% -26% -22% -26% -24% -20%

Note: PV stands for present value.

Source: Author’s calculations based on Social Security cohort life table for the 1950 birth cohort (SSA 2005). See text for underlying assumptions.

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