Figure K
Actual and predicted long-term unemployment rate, June 2000–June 2014
| Actual rate | Predicted rate based on current unemployment rate | Predicted rate based on current unemployment rate and long-run time trend | Predicted rate based on current unemployment rate, long-run time trend, and lagged unemployment rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987/06/01 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| 1987/07/01 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 1987/08/01 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| 1987/09/01 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 1987/10/01 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 1987/11/01 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 1987/12/01 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 1988/01/01 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 1988/02/01 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 1988/03/01 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 1988/04/01 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 1988/05/01 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 1988/06/01 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 1988/07/01 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 1988/08/01 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 1988/09/01 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 1988/10/01 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 1988/11/01 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 1988/12/01 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 1995/07/01 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 1995/08/01 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 1995/09/01 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 1995/10/01 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 1995/11/01 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 1995/12/01 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 1996/01/01 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 1996/02/01 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 1996/03/01 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 1996/04/01 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 1996/05/01 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 1996/06/01 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 1996/07/01 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 1996/08/01 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 1996/09/01 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 1996/10/01 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 1996/11/01 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 1996/12/01 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 1997/01/01 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 1997/02/01 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| 1997/03/01 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 1997/04/01 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 1997/05/01 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 1997/06/01 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 1997/07/01 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 1997/08/01 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 1997/09/01 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 1997/10/01 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 1997/11/01 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 1997/12/01 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 1998/01/01 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 1998/02/01 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 1998/03/01 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 1998/04/01 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 1998/05/01 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 1998/06/01 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 1998/07/01 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 1998/08/01 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 1998/09/01 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 1998/10/01 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 1998/11/01 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 1998/12/01 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 1999/01/01 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 1999/02/01 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 1999/03/01 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 1999/04/01 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 1999/05/01 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 1999/06/01 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 1999/07/01 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 1999/08/01 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 1999/09/01 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 1999/10/01 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 1999/11/01 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 1999/12/01 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2000/01/01 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 2000/02/01 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 2000/03/01 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 2000/04/01 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2000/05/01 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2000/06/01 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 2000/07/01 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 2000/08/01 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 2000/09/01 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2000/10/01 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2000/11/01 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2000/12/01 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2001/01/01 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| 2001/02/01 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| 2001/03/01 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2001/04/01 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 2001/05/01 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 2001/06/01 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 2001/07/01 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 2001/08/01 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 2001/09/01 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 2001/10/01 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 2001/11/01 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| 2001/12/01 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| 2002/01/01 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| 2002/02/01 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| 2002/03/01 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| 2002/04/01 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| 2002/05/01 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| 2002/06/01 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| 2002/07/01 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| 2002/08/01 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 2002/09/01 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| 2002/10/01 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| 2002/11/01 | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| 2002/12/01 | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| 2003/01/01 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| 2003/02/01 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| 2003/03/01 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| 2003/04/01 | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| 2003/05/01 | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| 2003/06/01 | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| 2003/07/01 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| 2003/08/01 | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| 2003/09/01 | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| 2003/10/01 | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| 2003/11/01 | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| 2003/12/01 | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| 2004/01/01 | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| 2004/02/01 | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| 2004/03/01 | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| 2004/04/01 | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| 2004/05/01 | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| 2004/06/01 | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| 2004/07/01 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| 2004/08/01 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| 2004/09/01 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| 2004/10/01 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| 2004/11/01 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| 2004/12/01 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| 2005/01/01 | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| 2005/02/01 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| 2005/03/01 | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 2005/04/01 | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2005/05/01 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2005/06/01 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| 2005/07/01 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| 2005/08/01 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| 2005/09/01 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| 2005/10/01 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| 2005/11/01 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| 2005/12/01 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| 2006/01/01 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 2006/02/01 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 2006/03/01 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| 2006/04/01 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 2006/05/01 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 2006/06/01 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2006/07/01 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 2006/08/01 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2006/09/01 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 2006/10/01 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 2006/11/01 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 2006/12/01 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 2007/01/01 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 2007/02/01 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2007/03/01 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 2007/04/01 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 2007/05/01 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 2007/06/01 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2007/07/01 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2007/08/01 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 2007/09/01 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 2007/10/01 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 2007/11/01 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 2007/12/01 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2008/01/01 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| 2008/02/01 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 2008/03/01 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| 2008/04/01 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2008/05/01 | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| 2008/06/01 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| 2008/07/01 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| 2008/08/01 | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| 2008/09/01 | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| 2008/10/01 | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| 2008/11/01 | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| 2008/12/01 | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| 2009/01/01 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
| 2009/02/01 | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| 2009/03/01 | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| 2009/04/01 | 2.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| 2009/05/01 | 2.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| 2009/06/01 | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% |
| 2009/07/01 | 3.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% |
| 2009/08/01 | 3.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| 2009/09/01 | 3.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| 2009/10/01 | 3.6% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 2009/11/01 | 3.8% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| 2009/12/01 | 3.9% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 2010/01/01 | 4.2% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| 2010/02/01 | 4.1% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% |
| 2010/03/01 | 4.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% |
| 2010/04/01 | 4.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| 2010/05/01 | 4.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| 2010/06/01 | 4.1% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% |
| 2010/07/01 | 4.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% |
| 2010/08/01 | 4.1% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| 2010/09/01 | 4.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% |
| 2010/10/01 | 4.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| 2010/11/01 | 4.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% |
| 2010/12/01 | 4.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% |
| 2011/01/01 | 4.1% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| 2011/02/01 | 4.0% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| 2011/03/01 | 4.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% |
| 2011/04/01 | 4.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% |
| 2011/05/01 | 4.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| 2011/06/01 | 3.9% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% |
| 2011/07/11 | 4.0% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% |
| 2011/08/20 | 3.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 2011/09/01 | 4.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| 2011/10/11 | 3.7% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| 2011/11/20 | 3.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| 2011/12/30 | 3.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| 2012/01/12 | 3.6% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| 2012/02/12 | 3.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| 2012/03/12 | 3.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% |
| 2012/04/12 | 3.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% |
| 2012/05/12 | 3.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| 2012/06/12 | 3.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
| 2012/07/12 | 3.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
| 2012/08/12 | 3.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% |
| 2012/09/12 | 3.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% |
| 2012/10/12 | 3.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| 2012/11/12 | 3.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| 2012/12/12 | 3.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% |
| 2013/01/12 | 3.1% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| 2013/02/12 | 3.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% |
| 2013/03/12 | 3.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% |
| 2013/04/12 | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% |
| 2013/05/12 | 2.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| 2013/06/12 | 2.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| 2013/07/12 | 2.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% |
| 2013/08/12 | 2.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| 2013/09/12 | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| 2013/10/12 | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| 2013/11/12 | 2.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% |
| 2013/12/12 | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% |
| 2014/01/12 | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| 2014/02/12 | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% |
| 2014/03/12 | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| 2014/04/12 | 2.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% |
| 2014/05/12 | 2.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% |
| 2014/06/12 | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% |
Source: Authors' analysis of basic monthly Current Population Survey microdata
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