Employment and GDP impacts of U.S. infrastructure investment under various financing options, Scenario One
| Debt | Revenue, progressive | Revenue, regressive | Transfer Cuts | Regulatory mandates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total amount of spending ($billions) | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Gross GDP increase from spending ($billions) | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Gross Employment increase from spending | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 |
| Gross GDP decrease from financing ($billions) | 0 | 6.3 | 16.2 | 28.8 | 3.6 |
| Gross Employment decrease from financing | 0 | 47,250 | 121,500 | 216,000 | 27,000 |
| Net GDP increase from package ($billions) | 28.8 | 22.5 | 12.6 | 0 | 25.2 |
| Net employment increase from package | 216,000 | 168,750 | 94,500 | 0 | 189,000 |
Note: Multipliers are based on evidence reviewed in Bivens (2011) and Bivens (2012). Specifically, the multiplier for infrastructure investments is 1.6, the muliplier for progressive tax increases is (-) 0.9, the multiplier for regressive tax increases is (-)0.35, the multiplier for transfers is 1.6, and following Bivens (2012), 20 percent of the stimulative effect of investments driven by regulatory mandates are crowded out. For employment impacts, we assume each percentage point addition to GDP adds 1.2 million jobs to the economy. The total spending figures are based on the infrastructure investment scenarios described in the text.
Source: Author's analysis of Bivens (2012) Congressional Budget Office (2013), Council of Economic Advisors and Moody's Analytics Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts
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