Plenty of evidence indicates that we're not at the limits of full employment: Inflation, wage growth, interest rates, and the share of adults between the ages of 25 and 54 with a job, 2000–2017
| Date | Price inflation | Wage growth | Interest rates | Prime-age EPOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-01-01 | 1.6691% | 3.7594% | 6.47% | 81.8% |
| 2000-04-01 | 1.6868% | 3.7975% | 6.18% | 81.6% |
| 2000-07-01 | 1.8021% | 3.8348% | 5.89% | 81.2% |
| 2000-10-01 | 1.8298% | 4.0966% | 5.57% | 81.3% |
| 2001-01-01 | 1.8446% | 4.0580% | 5.04% | 81.3% |
| 2001-04-01 | 1.9072% | 4.0172% | 5.28% | 80.8% |
| 2001-07-01 | 1.7337% | 3.6222% | 5.00% | 80.3% |
| 2001-10-01 | 1.7605% | 3.3732% | 4.76% | 79.8% |
| 2002-01-01 | 1.4767% | 2.9944% | 5.08% | 79.7% |
| 2002-04-01 | 1.6742% | 2.6897% | 5.11% | 79.4% |
| 2002-07-01 | 1.9091% | 2.9472% | 4.27% | 79.3% |
| 2002-10-01 | 1.7462% | 3.0591% | 4.00% | 79.0% |
| 2003-01-01 | 1.7033% | 3.1778% | 3.92% | 78.9% |
| 2003-04-01 | 1.4788% | 2.8878% | 3.62% | 79.0% |
| 2003-07-01 | 1.3655% | 2.5965% | 4.23% | 78.7% |
| 2003-10-01 | 1.3676% | 1.9789% | 4.29% | 78.7% |
| 2004-01-01 | 1.6692% | 1.8349% | 4.01% | 78.8% |
| 2004-04-01 | 1.9163% | 2.0235% | 4.60% | 79.0% |
| 2004-07-01 | 1.9725% | 2.1415% | 4.30% | 79.1% |
| 2004-10-01 | 2.0929% | 2.4580% | 4.18% | 79.0% |
| 2005-01-01 | 2.1905% | 2.5097% | 4.30% | 79.2% |
| 2005-04-01 | 2.1166% | 2.6232% | 4.16% | 79.4% |
| 2005-07-01 | 2.0706% | 2.7319% | 4.22% | 79.5% |
| 2005-10-01 | 2.2600% | 3.0303% | 4.49% | 79.3% |
| 2006-01-01 | 2.1294% | 3.4526% | 4.58% | 79.7% |
| 2006-04-01 | 2.2716% | 3.9277% | 5.07% | 79.7% |
| 2006-07-01 | 2.3957% | 4.0198% | 4.89% | 79.8% |
| 2006-10-01 | 2.1577% | 4.1054% | 4.63% | 80.1% |
| 2007-01-01 | 2.3628% | 4.0655% | 4.68% | 80.2% |
| 2007-04-01 | 2.0362% | 4.0792% | 4.85% | 80.0% |
| 2007-07-01 | 1.9895% | 4.1023% | 4.74% | 79.8% |
| 2007-10-01 | 2.2482% | 3.7669% | 4.27% | 79.7% |
| 2008-01-01 | 2.1117% | 3.8484% | 3.67% | 79.9% |
| 2008-04-01 | 2.2660% | 3.6311% | 3.88% | 79.5% |
| 2008-07-01 | 2.2260% | 3.7122% | 3.86% | 78.9% |
| 2008-10-01 | 1.6417% | 3.9138% | 3.23% | 78.0% |
| 2009-01-01 | 1.1791% | 3.5935% | 2.74% | 76.6% |
| 2009-04-01 | 1.1621% | 3.1146% | 3.32% | 76.0% |
| 2009-07-01 | 0.9904% | 2.6982% | 3.52% | 75.5% |
| 2009-10-01 | 1.4157% | 2.6201% | 3.46% | 75.0% |
| 2010-01-01 | 1.5539% | 2.4932% | 3.72% | 75.1% |
| 2010-04-01 | 1.3290% | 2.4811% | 3.49% | 75.2% |
| 2010-07-01 | 1.2923% | 2.3593% | 2.78% | 75.1% |
| 2010-10-01 | 0.9707% | 2.1809% | 2.88% | 74.9% |
| 2011-01-01 | 1.0544% | 2.1682% | 3.46% | 75.2% |
| 2011-04-01 | 1.3995% | 2.1053% | 3.20% | 75.1% |
| 2011-07-01 | 1.6613% | 2.0430% | 2.41% | 75.0% |
| 2011-10-01 | 1.8617% | 1.8220% | 2.05% | 75.2% |
| 2012-01-01 | 2.0858% | 1.5010% | 2.04% | 75.6% |
| 2012-04-01 | 1.9456% | 1.5464% | 1.83% | 75.7% |
| 2012-07-01 | 1.7477% | 1.4374% | 1.64% | 75.8% |
| 2012-10-01 | 1.7784% | 1.4315% | 1.71% | 76.0% |
| 2013-01-01 | 1.6282% | 1.9378% | 1.95% | 75.7% |
| 2013-04-01 | 1.4418% | 1.8782% | 1.99% | 75.9% |
| 2013-07-01 | 1.4803% | 2.1255% | 2.71% | 76.0% |
| 2013-10-01 | 1.4910% | 2.3186% | 2.74% | 75.9% |
| 2014-01-01 | 1.4641% | 2.3512% | 2.77% | 76.5% |
| 2014-04-01 | 1.6664% | 2.3916% | 2.62% | 76.6% |
| 2014-07-01 | 1.7104% | 2.3786% | 2.50% | 76.8% |
| 2014-10-01 | 1.5458% | 2.1675% | 2.28% | 77.0% |
| 2015-01-01 | 1.3741% | 1.8573% | 1.97% | 77.2% |
| 2015-04-01 | 1.3053% | 2.0438% | 2.16% | 77.3% |
| 2015-07-01 | 1.2956% | 2.0329% | 2.22% | 77.2% |
| 2015-10-01 | 1.3289% | 2.3144% | 2.19% | 77.3% |
| 2016-01-01 | 1.6486% | 2.4472% | 1.91% | 77.8% |
| 2016-04-01 | 1.7250% | 2.4797% | 1.75% | 77.8% |
| 2016-07-01 | 1.8425% | 2.5142% | 1.56% | 77.9% |
| 2016-10-01 | 1.8668% | 2.4034% | 2.14% | 78.1% |
| 2017-01-01 | 1.7864% | 2.3419% | 2.45% | 78.4% |
| 2017-04-01 | 1.5195% | 2.2801% | 2.26% | 78.5% |
| 2017-07-01 | 1.3535% | 2.3600% | 2.24% | 78.6% |
| 2017-10-01 | 1.4873% | 2.3470% | 2.37% | 79.0% |
Notes: The prime-age EPOP (employment-to-population ratio) is the share of adults between the ages of 25 and 54 with a job. Interest rates are rates on 10-year constant maturity Treasury bonds. Wage growth is the four-quarter change in average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers from the Current Employment Statistics program of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Inflation is the four-quarter change in the price index for core personal consumption expenditures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Source: Author’s analysis of BLS Current Population Survey program data (for prime-age EPOP), U.S. Treasury data (for interest rates), BLS Current Employment Statistics data (for wage growth), and Bureau of Economic Analysis data (for price inflation)
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