Figure ADP - B
Payroll employment predicted from ADP tracks actual payroll employment: Actual and predicted private-sector payroll employment, 3 month moving average, 2022 to present
| Date | Predicted private sector employment | BLS private-sector employment |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-2022 | 668.777962 | 474.6666667 |
| Feb-2022 | 636.1947961 | 557.3333333 |
| Mar-2022 | 431.4557985 | 532.3333333 |
| Apr-2022 | 483.4916008 | 540.6666667 |
| May-2022 | 344.4052509 | 318.3333333 |
| Jun-2022 | 450.422119 | 308.3333333 |
| Jul-2022 | 538.4452984 | 398.3333333 |
| Aug-2022 | 576.3779393 | 409.3333333 |
| Sep-2022 | 551.575828 | 334.6666667 |
| Oct-2022 | 412.0031622 | 279 |
| Nov-2022 | 362.3989395 | 273 |
| Dec-2022 | 205.8052169 | 243.3333333 |
| Jan-2023 | 219.9083782 | 228 |
| Feb-2023 | 188.7841601 | 234 |
| Mar-2023 | 103.6788761 | 207.6666667 |
| Apr-2023 | 47.75254655 | 155 |
| May-2023 | -3.310623862 | 127 |
| Jun-2023 | 93.46624197 | 167.6666667 |
| Jul-2023 | 96.38413742 | 148.6666667 |
| Aug-2023 | 128.9673033 | 129.3333333 |
| Sep-2023 | 104.165192 | 102.3333333 |
| Oct-2023 | 100.2746647 | 104.6666667 |
| Nov-2023 | 91.03466243 | 101 |
| Dec-2023 | 91.03466243 | 142.3333333 |
| Jan-2024 | 90.54834652 | 127.6666667 |
| Feb-2024 | 86.17150334 | 145.6666667 |
| Mar-2024 | 79.84939653 | 131 |
| Apr-2024 | 72.06834199 | 149.6666667 |
| May-2024 | 107.5694033 | 152.6666667 |
| Jun-2024 | 133.8304624 | 118.3333333 |
| Jul-2024 | 99.30203288 | 88.66666667 |
| Aug-2024 | 107.0830874 | 46.33333333 |
| Sep-2024 | 135.2894101 | 93.66666667 |
| Oct-2024 | 222.3399578 | 80 |
| Nov-2024 | 234.0115396 | 150.3333333 |
| Dec-2024 | 225.2578532 | 176.6666667 |
| Jan-2025 | 208.2367964 | 203.3333333 |
| Feb-2025 | 149.8788874 | 157.6666667 |
| Mar-2025 | 135.775726 | 100 |
| Apr-2025 | 74.49992153 | 118 |
| May-2025 | 47.75254655 | 105.3333333 |
| Jun-2025 | -34.92115793 | 58.33333333 |
| Jul-2025 | -13.52325794 | 39.66666667 |
| Aug-2025 | -29.08536702 | 29.33333333 |
| Sep-2025 | -20.33168067 |
Note: Predicted ADP is constructed based on a linear regression of monthly chnages in BLS private sector employment on monthly chnages in ADP payroll employment. The regression includes all months the ADP data is reported, April 2010 - present. The regression results are y= 1.459x - 67.02, R^2 value is 0.58.
Source: ADP payroll data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series ADPMNUSNERSA. Private sector employment data from the Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey), Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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