May jobs report sends mixed signals: Solid payroll gains contrast with a weaker household survey and a continued decline in federal government employment
Below, EPI economists offer their insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 139,000 jobs added in May.
From EPI senior economist, Elise Gould:
The latest BLS data out this morning suggests the labor market remains relatively resilient compared to softer measures though the household survey shows some signs of weakness.
– payroll jobs up 139k
– federal jobs down 22k
– labor force participation down 625k
#EconSky #NumbersDay @epi.org— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Jun 6, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Payroll employment increased 139k in May, though there were notable downward revisions the past two months, a total of 95k fewer jobs in March and April than originally reported. Job growth was strong in health care and leisure and hospitality. The federal government lost 22k jobs in May.
#EconSky— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Jun 6, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Employment in the federal govt fell 22k in April, down 59k since Jan. Even as bad as this is, the devastation to the federal workforce has yet to be fully realized because many workers are on administration leave and more recent federal UI claims data suggest further cutbacks.
#EconSky #NumbersDay— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Jun 6, 2025 at 8:03 AM
From EPI president Heidi Shierholz:
Another “tale of two surveys” for #JobsDay. The payroll survey was solid—139k jobs added—while the household survey showed a huge drop in employment, -696k. (The unemp rate didn’t rise because the drop in employment was masked by people dropping out of the labor force.) 1/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz.bsky.social) Jun 6, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Remember that when the surveys are telling different stories, the rule of thumb is to put more weight on what the payroll survey says, since it is a much bigger survey. 2/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz.bsky.social) Jun 6, 2025 at 7:53 AM
That said, the weak household survey could be giving us a glimpse of what the future holds, as the impact of Trump’s foolish, cruel, chaotic policies begin to have real effects on the economy. 3/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz.bsky.social) Jun 6, 2025 at 7:53 AM
It’s worth noting that while the payroll survey was indeed solid, it nevertheless slowed, and there were downward revisions to prior data. Last #JobsDay, the three-month moving average was 155k. Today, it was 135k, a sizeable drop. 4/
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz.bsky.social) Jun 6, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Enjoyed this post?
Sign up for EPI's newsletter so you never miss our research and insights on ways to make the economy work better for everyone.
