Increasing Labor Force Participation Leads to Fewer Missing Workers
The official unemployment rate ticked up slightly last month as more potential workers entered the labor force. While is it a positive sign that more people are actively looking for work, the unemployment rate still understates the weakness of job opportunities. This is due to the existence of a large pool of “missing workers”—potential workers who, because of weak job opportunities, are neither employed nor actively seeking a job. In other words, these are people who would be either working or looking for work if job opportunities were significantly stronger.
The number of missing workers has been hovering around 6 million for over a year. They fell slightly in January, which could be the start of a positive trend. As the economy gets stronger, I would expect more people to start looking for work. At this point, the fact remains that there are still 5.8 million missing workers. And, if the missing workers were actively looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 9.0 percent.
Millions of potential workers sidelined: Missing workers,* January 2006–January 2015
| Date | Missing workers |
|---|---|
| 2006-01-01 | 530,000 |
| 2006-02-01 | 110,000 |
| 2006-03-01 | 110,000 |
| 2006-04-01 | 250,000 |
| 2006-05-01 | 210,000 |
| 2006-06-01 | 110,000 |
| 2006-07-01 | 60,000 |
| 2006-08-01 | -120,000 |
| 2006-09-01 | 120,000 |
| 2006-10-01 | -50,000 |
| 2006-11-01 | -220,000 |
| 2006-12-01 | -500,000 |
| 2007-01-01 | -460,000 |
| 2007-02-01 | -210,000 |
| 2007-03-01 | -150,000 |
| 2007-04-01 | 650,000 |
| 2007-05-01 | 560,000 |
| 2007-06-01 | 360,000 |
| 2007-07-01 | 370,000 |
| 2007-08-01 | 840,000 |
| 2007-09-01 | 410,000 |
| 2007-10-01 | 800,000 |
| 2007-11-01 | 280,000 |
| 2007-12-01 | 250,000 |
| 2008-01-01 | -320,000 |
| 2008-02-01 | 220,000 |
| 2008-03-01 | 50,000 |
| 2008-04-01 | 340,000 |
| 2008-05-01 | -60,000 |
| 2008-06-01 | 20,000 |
| 2008-07-01 | -70,000 |
| 2008-08-01 | -90,000 |
| 2008-09-01 | 180,000 |
| 2008-10-01 | 60,000 |
| 2008-11-01 | 420,000 |
| 2008-12-01 | 420,000 |
| 2009-01-01 | 710,000 |
| 2009-02-01 | 620,000 |
| 2009-03-01 | 1,050,000 |
| 2009-04-01 | 750,000 |
| 2009-05-01 | 650,000 |
| 2009-06-01 | 650,000 |
| 2009-07-01 | 1,040,000 |
| 2009-08-01 | 1,320,000 |
| 2009-09-01 | 2,050,000 |
| 2009-10-01 | 2,270,000 |
| 2009-11-01 | 2,300,000 |
| 2009-12-01 | 3,120,000 |
| 2010-01-01 | 2,770,000 |
| 2010-02-01 | 2,690,000 |
| 2010-03-01 | 2,440,000 |
| 2010-04-01 | 1,940,000 |
| 2010-05-01 | 2,530,000 |
| 2010-06-01 | 2,950,000 |
| 2010-07-01 | 3,220,000 |
| 2010-08-01 | 2,830,000 |
| 2010-09-01 | 3,200,000 |
| 2010-10-01 | 3,640,000 |
| 2010-11-01 | 3,310,000 |
| 2010-12-01 | 3,800,000 |
| 2011-01-01 | 3,910,000 |
| 2011-02-01 | 4,110,000 |
| 2011-03-01 | 3,960,000 |
| 2011-04-01 | 4,000,000 |
| 2011-05-01 | 4,110,000 |
| 2011-06-01 | 4,220,000 |
| 2011-07-01 | 4,640,000 |
| 2011-08-01 | 4,100,000 |
| 2011-09-01 | 3,990,000 |
| 2011-10-01 | 4,090,000 |
| 2011-11-01 | 4,090,000 |
| 2011-12-01 | 4,150,000 |
| 2012-01-01 | 4,450,000 |
| 2012-02-01 | 4,180,000 |
| 2012-03-01 | 4,240,000 |
| 2012-04-01 | 4,630,000 |
| 2012-05-01 | 4,240,000 |
| 2012-06-01 | 4,060,000 |
| 2012-07-01 | 4,520,000 |
| 2012-08-01 | 4,630,000 |
| 2012-09-01 | 4,500,000 |
| 2012-10-01 | 3,930,000 |
| 2012-11-01 | 4,370,000 |
| 2012-12-01 | 4,070,000 |
| 2013-01-01 | 4,350,000 |
| 2013-02-01 | 4,790,000 |
| 2013-03-01 | 5,310,000 |
| 2013-04-01 | 5,060,000 |
| 2013-05-01 | 4,840,000 |
| 2013-06-01 | 4,700,000 |
| 2013-07-01 | 5,030,000 |
| 2013-08-01 | 5,150,000 |
| 2013-09-01 | 5,370,000 |
| 2013-10-01 | 6,120,000 |
| 2013-11-01 | 5,700,000 |
| 2013-12-01 | 5,950,000 |
| 2014-01-01 | 5,850,000 |
| 2014-02-01 | 5,650,000 |
| 2014-03-01 | 5,330,000 |
| 2014-04-01 | 6,210,000 |
| 2014-05-01 | 5,940,000 |
| 2014-06-01 | 5,950,000 |
| 2014-07-01 | 5,810,000 |
| 2014-08-01 | 5,890,000 |
| 2014-09-01 | 6,250,000 |
| 2014-10-01 | 5,720,000 |
| 2014-11-01 | 5,760,000 |
| 2014-12-01 | 6,100,000 |
| 2015-01-01 | 5,760,000 |
* Potential workers who, due to weak job opportunities, are neither employed nor actively seeking work
Note: Volatility in the number of missing workers in 2006–2008, including cases of negative numbers of missing workers, is simply the result of month-to-month variability in the sample. The Great Recession–induced pool of missing workers began to form and grow starting in late 2008.
Source: EPI analysis of Mitra Toossi, “Labor Force Projections to 2016: More Workers in Their Golden Years,” Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Labor Review, November 2007; and Current Population Survey public data series
Similarly, we saw a tick up in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-working-age population in January, following a trend that has been slowly moving in the right direction for years. That said, it’s clear that there is a long way to go before we return to pre-recession labor market health.
Employment-to-population ratio of workers ages 25–54, 2006–2015
| Month | Employment to population ratio |
|---|---|
| 2006-01-01 | 79.6% |
| 2006-02-01 | 79.7% |
| 2006-03-01 | 79.8% |
| 2006-04-01 | 79.6% |
| 2006-05-01 | 79.7% |
| 2006-06-01 | 79.8% |
| 2006-07-01 | 79.8% |
| 2006-08-01 | 79.8% |
| 2006-09-01 | 79.9% |
| 2006-10-01 | 80.1% |
| 2006-11-01 | 80.0% |
| 2006-12-01 | 80.1% |
| 2007-01-01 | 80.3% |
| 2007-02-01 | 80.1% |
| 2007-03-01 | 80.2% |
| 2007-04-01 | 80.0% |
| 2007-05-01 | 80.0% |
| 2007-06-01 | 79.9% |
| 2007-07-01 | 79.8% |
| 2007-08-01 | 79.8% |
| 2007-09-01 | 79.7% |
| 2007-10-01 | 79.6% |
| 2007-11-01 | 79.7% |
| 2007-12-01 | 79.7% |
| 2008-01-01 | 80.0% |
| 2008-02-01 | 79.9% |
| 2008-03-01 | 79.8% |
| 2008-04-01 | 79.6% |
| 2008-05-01 | 79.5% |
| 2008-06-01 | 79.4% |
| 2008-07-01 | 79.2% |
| 2008-08-01 | 78.8% |
| 2008-09-01 | 78.8% |
| 2008-10-01 | 78.4% |
| 2008-11-01 | 78.1% |
| 2008-12-01 | 77.6% |
| 2009-01-01 | 77.0% |
| 2009-02-01 | 76.7% |
| 2009-03-01 | 76.2% |
| 2009-04-01 | 76.2% |
| 2009-05-01 | 75.9% |
| 2009-06-01 | 75.9% |
| 2009-07-01 | 75.8% |
| 2009-08-01 | 75.6% |
| 2009-09-01 | 75.1% |
| 2009-10-01 | 75.0% |
| 2009-11-01 | 75.2% |
| 2009-12-01 | 74.8% |
| 2010-01-01 | 75.1% |
| 2010-02-01 | 75.1% |
| 2010-03-01 | 75.1% |
| 2010-04-01 | 75.4% |
| 2010-05-01 | 75.1% |
| 2010-06-01 | 75.2% |
| 2010-07-01 | 75.1% |
| 2010-08-01 | 75.0% |
| 2010-09-01 | 75.1% |
| 2010-10-01 | 75.0% |
| 2010-11-01 | 74.8% |
| 2010-12-01 | 75.0% |
| 2011-01-01 | 75.2% |
| 2011-02-01 | 75.1% |
| 2011-03-01 | 75.3% |
| 2011-04-01 | 75.1% |
| 2011-05-01 | 75.2% |
| 2011-06-01 | 75.0% |
| 2011-07-01 | 75.0% |
| 2011-08-01 | 75.1% |
| 2011-09-01 | 74.9% |
| 2011-10-01 | 74.9% |
| 2011-11-01 | 75.3% |
| 2011-12-01 | 75.4% |
| 2012-01-01 | 75.6% |
| 2012-02-01 | 75.6% |
| 2012-03-01 | 75.7% |
| 2012-04-01 | 75.7% |
| 2012-05-01 | 75.7% |
| 2012-06-01 | 75.7% |
| 2012-07-01 | 75.6% |
| 2012-08-01 | 75.7% |
| 2012-09-01 | 75.9% |
| 2012-10-01 | 76.0% |
| 2012-11-01 | 75.8% |
| 2012-12-01 | 75.9% |
| 2013-01-01 | 75.7% |
| 2013-02-01 | 75.9% |
| 2013-03-01 | 75.9% |
| 2013-04-01 | 75.9% |
| 2013-05-01 | 76.0% |
| 2013-06-01 | 75.9% |
| 2013-07-01 | 76.0% |
| 2013-08-01 | 75.9% |
| 2013-09-01 | 75.9% |
| 2013-10-01 | 75.5% |
| 2013-11-01 | 76.0% |
| 2013-12-01 | 76.1% |
| 2014-01-01 | 76.5% |
| 2014-02-01 | 76.5% |
| 2014-03-01 | 76.6% |
| 2014-04-01 | 76.5% |
| 2014-05-01 | 76.4% |
| 2014-06-01 | 76.8% |
| 2014-07-01 | 76.6% |
| 2014-08-01 | 76.8% |
| 2014-09-01 | 76.8% |
| 2014-10-01 | 76.9% |
| 2014-11-01 | 76.9% |
| 2014-12-01 | 77.0% |
| 2015-01-01 | 77.2% |
Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey public data series.
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