Federal layoffs trigger a sharp slowdown in job growth: Unemployment rises to highest rate since 2021
Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 41,000 jobs lost over October and November. Read the full thread here.
Today the BLS releases two months of payroll data and one month of household data. A little jarring to see the first gap in data on the unemployment rate in the history of the survey. Second thing to note is that the unemployment rate is now 4.6% a significant rise from 4.0% in January.
#NumbersDay— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 7:36 AM
On the payroll side, there were net job losses in three of the last six months. Job growth averaged only 17,000 over the last six months, a significant slowdown.
#EconSky #NumbersDay— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Downward revisions for August and September plus large losses in October—due to an enormous drop in federal workers at the end of September—has meant a significant slowing in the pace of job growth. The three-month moving average of job growth fell from 232k in January to 62k in November.
#EconSky— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 8:03 AM
Attacks on the federal workforce reached a fever pitch in October as federal employment fell by a whopping 162,000. Federal employment has shrunk an alarming 271,000 since January. The shutdown furloughs have no impact on these data. The cost of these losses are only beginning to be felt.
#EconSky— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Health care employment continued to rise, adding 46,000 jobs in November. Construction added jobs as well, but manufacturing and transportation and warehousing sectors continues to lose jobs, 58k losses in manufacturing and 60k losses in transportation and warehousing since January.
#NumbersDay— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 8:29 AM
While federal cuts drove large losses in October, it’s important to note that private-sector employment grew an average of only 44k per month over the last six months, down from an average growth rate of 130k in 2024. Employment is undeniably slowing this year and it’s not just about federal cuts.
— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 8:46 AM
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