Posted July 29, 2019 at 4:58 pm by Hunter Blair

Detailed estimates for policies in EPI’s ‘Budget for Shared Prosperity’

On June 11, 2019, EPI participated in the Peter G. Peterson Foundation’s (PGPF) “Solutions Initiative.” This project entailed submitting our own model federal tax and budget plan. In a previous post, we described the big picture behind our proposals. And in a recent report, we described the size of the spending and revenue increases in our budget, while paying particular attention to the details of our proposals for raising revenues and the reasoning behind them.

But we also wanted to provide more specific scores for each proposal in the “Budget for Shared Prosperity.” Estimates for spending proposals were put together by EPI and reviewed by independent scorekeepers contracted by PGPF. Estimates for the tax policies in our budget were put together by the Tax Policy Center (TPC). More information on score-keeping can be found in the report for the “Solution’s Initiative.”

Table 1 provides 30-year scores for each of the proposals in the “Budget for Shared Prosperity” in billions of dollars, as well as the effect on debt and deficits. Table 2 provides the net effects of these proposals relative to CBO baseline as a percentage of GDP. And Table 3 provides the net effects of these proposals relative to CBO baseline in billions of dollars.

Table 1

Policy modifications for the "Budget for shared prosperity" (billions of dollars)

 

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2020-2049 2020-2029 2030-2049
Total baseline deficit(-)/surplus(+) -897 -903 -974 -1,066 -1,134 -1,158 -1,212 -1,204 -1,192 -1,344 -1,460 -1,538 -1,681 -1,833 -1,958 -2,128 -2,308 -2,500 -2,745 -2,963 -3,193 -3,438 -3,697 -3,971 -4,262 -4,570 -4,895 -5,240 -5,605 -5,991 -6,418 -82,582 -11,648 -70,935
Revenues
Individual income taxes
Fairer income rates and brackets 0 253 352 370 390 412 434 172 88 92 97 101 108 115 123 131 140 150 160 171 183 195 207 219 231 244 258 273 288 305 322 6,584 2,659 3,925
Mark-to-market taxation of capital income 0 -23 31 93 142 187 228 251 281 313 344 355 372 394 417 442 469 498 529 563 598 637 668 697 728 760 793 828 865 903 942 14,304 1,846 12,458
Taxing income equally 0 926 1,297 1,350 1,417 1,492 1,570 1,710 1,805 1,891 1,982 2,078 2,175 2,275 2,379 2,486 2,597 2,712 2,831 2,955 3,083 3,215 3,344 3,476 3,613 3,755 3,903 4,056 4,216 4,381 4,553 79,521 15,439 64,082
Undo Public Law 115-97 standard deduction and exemptions 0 50 70 73 77 80 82 70 67 69 71 73 75 77 80 82 84 87 89 92 95 98 100 103 106 109 112 115 119 122 125 2,650 708 1,943
Expand the EITC to all working adults 0 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -153 -43 -110
Closing wealth loopholes to strengthen Medicare 0 10 17 18 19 20 22 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 38 40 43 46 50 53 57 61 66 70 75 81 87 93 100 107 114 1,488 209 1,280
Social insurance taxes
Shielding Social Security from inequality 0 77 106 110 113 118 123 126 131 135 139 145 151 157 164 171 178 186 194 202 211 219 228 236 244 253 262 271 281 291 301 5,520 1,178 4,342
Insuring an employer contribution for health security 0 151 207 215 224 233 242 252 263 273 284 295 306 318 329 342 355 368 381 396 410 426 442 458 475 493 511 530 550 571 592 10,891 2,344 8,548
Paying for paid family leave 0 23 32 33 34 36 37 39 41 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 61 63 66 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 90 93 97 1,733 362 1,371
Closing business tax loopholes 0 7 13 15 16 18 19 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 34 35 37 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 880 170 711
Corporate income taxes
Restoring responsible corporate tax rates 0 61 106 115 128 143 155 167 174 181 188 196 204 212 221 229 239 248 258 269 279 291 302 315 327 340 354 368 383 399 415 7,265 1,418 5,847
Ending offshore outsourcing 0 68 66 64 62 63 63 60 57 58 59 60 62 63 65 66 67 69 71 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 95 2,136 619 1,517
Closing corporations’ loopholes 0 21 47 45 39 42 45 49 52 56 60 64 67 70 73 77 81 86 91 96 102 108 114 121 128 136 145 155 166 178 191 2,706 456 2,250
Estate and gift and wealth taxes
Taxing inherited wealth fairly and closing estate tax loopholes 0 7 52 60 69 78 84 87 79 84 89 93 98 102 106 110 114 118 123 129 134 139 144 150 156 162 169 176 184 191 199 3,486 689 2,796
Tax on richest wealth holdings 0 89 121 126 130 136 141 146 152 158 164 170 177 184 191 198 206 214 222 230 239 248 258 268 278 289 300 311 323 336 349 6,352 1,363 4,990
Excise and other taxes
Carbon tax to fight climate change 0 174 256 251 247 245 245 246 245 246 246 246 246 246 246 246 247 248 249 250 251 253 255 257 259 261 264 267 270 273 276 7,508 2,401 5,108
Wall street speculation tax -77 -50 68 122 129 130 132 133 134 136 137 138 140 141 142 143 144 146 147 148 149 150 152 153 154 155 157 158 159 160 162 4,069 1,072 2,997
A gas tax that can fund transportation infrastructure 0 34 46 47 48 49 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 73 1,732 478 1,254
Cigarette taxes for health 0 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 98 38 60
Taxing Bank Bigness 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 266 99 167
Tax to nudge Americans from sugary drinks 0 7 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 299 97 202
Reducing the alcohol externality 0 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 251 70 181
Income-based premium for Medicare for All 0 300 409 421 435 448 463 477 492 508 525 542 559 576 593 611 630 649 669 689 710 732 754 776 799 823 847 872 898 924 951 19,082 4,478 14,605
Reform our immigration system (net revenue effects) 0 3 15 35 48 55 58 66 77 93 104 114 124 136 148 162 177 194 212 232 253 277 303 331 362 396 434 474 519 567 621 6,591 554 6,037
Spending
Social Security
Expand Social Security 0 3 7 10 13 18 21 26 30 35 41 46 52 59 67 74 82 92 101 112 121 132 143 155 168 182 194 208 222 239 247 2,902 204 2,698
Healthcare
Medicare drug negotiation 0 -28 -40 -44 -47 -51 -55 -58 -63 -71 -75 -80 -84 -89 -95 -100 -106 -112 -119 -126 -134 -141 -150 -159 -168 -178 -189 -200 -212 -224 -238 -3,436 -533 -2,904
Medicare savings 0 -1 -10 -55 -29 6 -43 -55 -68 -147 -151 -155 -160 -165 -171 -178 -185 -194 -203 -213 -224 -237 -251 -267 -284 -303 -324 -347 -373 -401 -417 -5,606 -553 -5,053
Rein in pharmaceutical monopolies 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -8 -9 -9 -9 -10 -10 -11 -12 -12 -13 -13 -203 -29 -174
Strengthen Medicaid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -8 -2 -6
Medicaid savings 0 -5 -6 -16 -20 -24 -27 -31 -36 -40 -43 -47 -51 -56 -61 -67 -73 -79 -87 -95 -104 -113 -124 -135 -147 -160 -175 -191 -208 -226 -235 -2,682 -248 -2,434
Healthcare for all 0 1,039 1,453 1,524 1,599 1,678 1,762 1,848 1,939 2,035 2,139 2,247 2,360 2,479 2,603 2,734 2,871 3,014 3,165 3,322 3,487 3,660 3,842 4,032 4,231 4,440 4,658 4,887 5,127 5,378 5,595 91,149 17,017 74,132
Discretionary
Responsible defense discretionary budgeting 0 -50 -55 -57 -51 -42 -50 -57 -49 -45 -47 -49 -51 -53 -55 -57 -60 -62 -65 -67 -70 -73 -76 -79 -82 -85 -89 -92 -96 -100 -104 -1,967 -504 -1,463
Reform our immigration system (net discretionary spending effects) 0 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 97 27 70
Permanent boost to nondefense discretionary 0 0 51 85 123 157 169 181 196 214 223 232 241 251 261 272 282 294 306 318 331 344 358 372 387 403 419 436 454 472 491 8,324 1,400 6,925
Other noninterest spending
A UBI for kids 0 225 305 314 322 331 339 349 358 368 377 388 397 406 416 426 436 446 456 467 478 489 500 511 523 534 546 559 571 584 597 13,016 3,288 9,728
Carbon UBI 0 0 348 512 502 494 491 491 492 492 493 493 493 493 493 494 494 495 497 499 502 504 508 511 515 519 524 530 535 541 547 14,501 4,316 10,186
Boost SNAP benefits 0 3 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 248 55 193
Child nutrition 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 68 14 54
Public financing of campaigns 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 70 15 56
Crop insurance reform 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -81 -24 -57
Universal early childcare and education 0 59 82 85 88 92 95 99 103 107 111 116 120 125 130 136 141 147 153 159 165 172 179 186 193 201 209 218 227 236 245 43,80 922 3,457
Reducing homelessness 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 76 12 64
Paid family and medical leave 0 27 37 38 40 42 43 45 47 49 51 53 56 58 60 63 66 68 71 74 77 81 84 87 91 94 98 102 106 111 115 2,034 419 1,615
Strengthen unemployment insurance 0 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 246 41 205
Investing in 21st century infrastructure 0 254 254 254 193 193 166 166 166 166 166 172 179 186 194 202 210 218 227 236 246 256 266 277 288 299 311 324 337 351 365 7,118 1,975 5,143
Investing in educators and schools 0 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 26 27 29 30 31 32 33 35 36 38 39 41 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 1,002 244 758
Making college affordable 0 29 40 42 43 45 47 48 50 52 54 57 59 61 64 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 91 95 98 102 106 111 115 120 2,140 451 1,689
Reform our immigration system (net mandatory spending effects) 0 5 9 18 24 30 32 39 45 53 55 58 60 62 65 68 70 73 76 79 82 86 89 93 96 100 104 109 113 117 122 2,033 311 1,723
Net policy adjustments (primary) -77 612 828 845 958 1,007 1,191 1,043 1,014 1,154 1,231 1,279 1,334 1,394 1,458 1,526 1,596 1,670 1,748 1,832 1,922 2,016 2,095 2,173 2,255 2,343 2,440 2,539 2,649 2,765 2,921 49,838 9,883 39,955
Debt service impact of policy adjustments -1 9 34 63 96 129 167 207 248 292 342 394 450 510 573 641 713 790 872 959 1,052 1,151 1,257 1,368 1,486 1,610 1,741 1,880 2,027 2,183 2,348 25,589 1,587 24,002
Net impact of policy adjustments -78 620 862 908 1,054 1,137 1,358 1,250 1,261 1,446 1,573 1,673 1,784 1,904 2,031 2,166 2,309 2,460 2,620 2,791 2,974 3,167 3,351 3,541 3,740 3,953 4,181 4,420 4,676 4,948 5,269 75,427 11,470 63,957
Final deficit -975 -283 -111 -157 -79 -21 146 46 69 103 112 135 103 71 73 39 1 -40 -125 -172 -220 -271 -346 -430 -521 -616 -715 -821 -929 -1043 -1,150 -7,155 -177 -6,978

Note: Many policy estimates, and in particular tax policy estimates, were broken down into their separate effects on different types of taxes or spending. For simplicity, this table includes only the overall net effects of a policy, placed in the section of revenues or spending that made the most sense to us. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: EPI (spending proposals) and TPC (revenue proposals)

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Table 2

"Budget for shared prosperity" vs baseline (as a percentage of GDP)

 

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2020-2049 2020-2029 2030-2049
Revenues
Total -0.4% 10.0% 14.6% 15.1% 15.4% 15.7% 15.8% 15.1% 14.8% 14.9% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3% 15.1% 14.7% 15.2%
Outlays
Social Security 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
Healthcare 0.0% 4.5% 6.1% 5.9% 6.1% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 6.9% 6.5% 6.0% 6.6%
Discretionary 0.0% -0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
Other mandatory 0.0% 2.8% 4.8% 5.5% 5.1% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.8% 4.6% 3.6%
Net interest 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% -0.6% -0.7% -0.9% -1.0% -1.1% -1.2% -1.3% -1.5% -1.6% -1.7% -1.8% -1.9% -2.0% -2.2% -2.3% -2.4% -2.5% -2.6% -2.8% -2.9% -3.0% -3.1% -3.2% -3.3% -3.4% -2.1% -0.6% -2.5%
Total 0.0% 7.2% 10.8% 11.3% 11.1% 11.2% 10.7% 10.6% 10.4% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8% 9.7% 9.6% 9.5% 9.3% 9.2% 9.1% 9.0% 8.9% 8.8% 8.7% 8.5% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.1% 8.0% 7.9% 7.7% 7.6% 8.9% 10.4% 8.6%
Deficit (-) or surplus -0.4% 2.8% 3.8% 3.8% 4.3% 4.4% 5.1% 4.5% 4.4% 4.8% 5.1% 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6.5% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.7% 6.1% 4.4% 6.6%
Debt held by the public 0.4% -2.5% -6.1% -9.7% -13.7% -17.6% -22.0% -25.7% -29.2% -32.9% -36.7% -40.5% -44.2% -47.9% -51.7% -55.4% -59.1% -62.8% -66.6% -70.3% -74.0% -77.8% -81.5% -85.1% -88.8% -92.4% -95.9% -99.5% -103.0% -106.6% -110.2% n.a. n.a. n.a.
Memorandum
GDP 21,141 22,059 22,899 23,756 24,660 25,621 26,629 27,640 28,709 29,837 31,039 32,290 33,591 34,945 36,353 37,818 39,342 40,928 42,577 44,293 46,078 47,935 49,867 51,876 53,967 56,142 58,404 60,758 63,207 65,754 68,404 1,227,378 262,849 964,529

Note: Proposals were scores against the January 2019 CBO baseline, extended through fiscal year 2049 using CBO's Long-Term Outlook and extrapolating for 2049. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: EPI (spending proposals) and TPC (revenue proposals)

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Table 3

"Budget for shared prosperity" vs baseline (billions of dollars)

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2020-2049 2020-2029 2030-2049
Revenues
Total -77 2,203 3,339 3,588 3,793 4,010 4,217 4,169 4,260 4,460 4,662 4,848 5,045 5,255 5,474 5,702 5,940 6,190 6,452 6,728 7,016 7,316 7,610 7,912 8,226 8,556 8,901 9,262 9,640 10,037 10,455 185,262 387,00 146,561
Outlays
Social Security 0 3 7 10 13 18 21 26 30 35 41 46 52 59 67 74 82 92 101 112 121 132 143 155 168 182 194 208 222 239 247 2,902 204 2,698
Healthcare 0 1,004 1,395 1,407 1,500 1,607 1,635 1,700 1,768 1,773 1,864 1,959 2,059 2,162 2,270 2,383 2,500 2,621 2,748 2,880 3,017 3,160 3,308 3,462 3,621 3,787 3,959 4,137 4,322 4,514 4,691 79,215 15,653 63,562
Discretionary 0 -44 0 30 75 117 121 126 149 171 178 185 193 200 209 217 226 235 244 254 264 275 286 298 310 322 335 348 363 377 392 6,454 922 5,532
Other mandatory 0 629 1,108 1,296 1,247 1,261 1,249 1,274 1,300 1,326 1,348 1,378 1,408 1,438 1,469 1,502 1,537 1,572 1,610 1,650 1,691 1,734 1,778 1,824 1,872 1,922 1,973 2,028 2,084 2,142 2,203 46,852 12,038 34,814
Net interest 1 -9 -34 -63 -96 -129 -167 -207 -248 -292 -342 -394 -450 -510 -573 -641 -713 -790 -872 -959 -1,052 -1,151 -1,257 -1,368 -1,486 -1,610 -1,741 -1,880 -2,027 -2,183 -2,348 -25,589 -1,587 -24,002
Total 1 1,583 2,476 2,680 2,739 2,873 2,859 2,919 2,999 3,013 3,089 3,175 3,262 3,350 3,442 3,535 3,631 3,730 3,832 3,937 4,042 4,149 4,259 4,371 4,485 4,603 4,720 4,842 4,964 5,089 5,186 109,835 27,230 82,605
Deficit (-) or surplus -78 620 862 908 1,054 1,137 1,358 1,250 1,261 1,446 1,573 1,673 1,784 1,904 2,031 2,166 2,309 2,460 2,620 2,791 2,974 3,167 3,351 3,541 3,740 3,953 4,181 4,420 4,676 4,948 5,269 75,427 11,470 63,957
Debt held by the public 78 -542 -1,405 -2,313 -3,367 -4,504 -5,862 -7,112 -8,374 -9,820 -11,393 -13,066 -14,849 -16,754 -18,785 -20,951 -23,260 -25,719 -28,340 -31,130 -34,104 -37,271 -40,622 -44,163 -47,903 -51,857 -56,037 -60,457 -65,133 -70,081 -75,349 n.a n.a n.a
Memorandum
GDP 21,141 22,059 22,899 23,756 24,660 25,621 26,629 27,640 28,709 29,837 31,039 32,290 33,591 34,945 36,353 37,818 39,342 40,928 42,577 44,293 46,078 47,935 49,867 51,876 53,967 56,142 58,404 60,758 63,207 65,754 68,404 1,227,378 262,849 964,529

Note: Proposals were scores against the January 2019 CBO baseline, extended through fiscal year 2049 using CBO's Long-Term Outlook and extrapolating for 2049. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: EPI (spending proposals) and TPC (revenue proposals)

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