This month, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet to decide whether to raise interest rates in order to slow down the economy and ward off incipient inflation, and I know I sound like a broken record, but, the stakes are too high not to keep repeating the same message over and over again. So let me say it again: the economy doesn’t need to cool off. It needs to simmer a while longer. Unfortunately, a serious look at the economy suggests slow growth, and not a hint of acceleration—making a rate hike terribly premature.

In light of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, the two measures I’ll be closely watching on Friday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its monthly jobs report, are nominal hourly wage growth and the prime-age employment-to-population ratio (EPOP).

Nominal wage growth is one of the top indicators the Fed should watch as it considers whether or not to raise rates, and I don’t see much positive news there. Wage growth has been pretty flat for the last five years, as shown in the chart below. Lately, it’s been teetering in the 1.8 to 2.2 percent range. By any standard, that’s anemic. And there has certainly not been any sign of acceleration in these data.

Meanwhile, the prime-wage EPOP bottomed out in 2010, then began to recover in 2012. Unfortunately, this year, it’s been pretty stuck—far below full recovery, even falling slightly in July. In fact, the prime-age EPOP is still below the lowest point of the past two business cycles. This is not an accelerating recovery.

Tomorrow I’ll be looking to see if these trends continue or if there’s a spark of divergence. Economic recovery can be a long haul, and we should let it develop fully before putting on the brakes. There is still a fair amount of slack in the labor market—look at the long term unemployed, the underemployed, young workers, older workers, workers of color, and workers across the education spectrum. Until the labor market tightens for all workers, the Fed shouldn’t raise rates.